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Index
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
List of figures, tables and boxes
Figures
Tables
Boxes
Abbreviations
About the author
Acknowledgements
Copyright acknowledgements
ONE: Studying Brexit
Introduction
Why Brexit matters
Ideal topic through which to understand a changing UK
The UK and Brexit are a fascinating case study for the social sciences
Provides pointers to the future of the EU and global politics
How to study Brexit
What is Brexit?
When is Brexit?
How do we break down and analyse Brexit?
Can we theorise Brexit?
Key questions
Causes
Consequences
Meaning
Books on Brexit
TWO: The history of UK-EU relations
Introduction
Why the EU was founded
Franco-German reconciliation
Pressure from the US
The threat from the USSR
A reaction against nationalism
Strengthen the nation states of Western Europe
Reverse the decline of Europe and its member states
What the EU does
Explaining the EU’s growth
The work of the EU
The EU’s main institutions
Why the UK joined and joined late
Power and prestige
Strategic lessons from the Second World War
Europe was only one of the three circles of British power
Unsure of its role in the world
Shifting economics
Doubts on the Left and Right
Britain’s political and constitutional setup
Cultural and demographic differences
Late realisation
Repeated attempts at membership
The two-faced European
An awkward partner
Struggling to fit with the setup of the EU
Trying to change the EU and fit in caused tensions in UK politics
A transactional approach to membership
Britain has secured many opt-outs
Has been the bane of many prime ministers’ time in office
Euroscepticism has defined public and media debate
Britain has been willing to say no
Britain has too often looked to the US
Awkward because of its size
A quiet European
Popularity vs effectiveness
Has had to assert itself to be taken seriously
Atlanticism is the norm in the EU
Britain has won on many policy areas
Has been a good enforcer of EU laws
The EU’s design reflects British aims
Conclusion
Historical legacies
Finding a role
A constraining public debate
Further readings
THREE: The renegotiation and referendum campaign
Introduction
Why David Cameron committed to a referendum
Tensions within the Conservative Party
The changing UK political landscape
Referendums in UK politics
A changing EU
The UK-EU renegotiation
A renegotiation as a campaign tactic
Identifying areas for renegotiation
Doubts about the renegotiation
The referendum campaign
Cabinet divisions
The Remain campaign
The Leave campaigns
Immigration was the predominant issue in the debate
A post-truth political campaign
Further readings
FOUR: The referendum result
Introduction
How Britain voted
Clear geographical differences
Many constituents voted differently from their MPs
A lot of change between 1975 and 2016
The referendum was decided in England
There were clear social and age differences in how people voted
Educational background was a strong indicator of voting intention
Alignment between newspaper position and readers’ voting intention
Large numbers of people voted differently from the position of the party they voted for in the 2015 election
Voters who identified as English voted strongly for Leave
Remain and Leave voters are divided by values
Views and experiences of immigration were important dividing lines
Summaries of the average Leave and Remain voter
Why Britain voted Leave
Cameron’s renegotiation failed to convince
The Leave campaign had stronger messengers
The Leave campaign was better organised and run
Economic arguments proved insufficient to win the vote
Remain had no answer to arguments about immigration
The media campaign was won by Leave
The EU was a very difficult sell
The electoral franchise benefited Leave
The campaign connected to matters not directly about EU-UK relations
What happened next
Further readings
FIVE: Britain after the referendum
Introduction
The Brexit narrative
Theresa May’s Brexit narrative
HM Government and Brexit
Collective responsibility
The administrative challenge
The search for strategy
Parliament, the judiciary and Brexit
Parliament’s role
Parliament’s Brexit workload
The 2017 general election
The role of the judiciary
Can a second referendum be called?
Party politics and Brexit
The Conservatives
The Labour Party
The Liberal Democrats
UKIP
The Union and Brexit
A United Kingdom?
Scotland
Northern Ireland
London
England
British society and Brexit
Brexit Britain’s divisions
Brexit and immigration
The British economy and Brexit
Brexit Britain’s economy
The economic effect of Brexit
Who wins and loses?
Further readings
SIX: Europe and Brexit
Introduction
Phase 1: exit negotiations
Article 50
The budget
Northern Ireland
Citizens’ rights
A chaotic ‘no deal’ Brexit
Can the UK reverse Brexit?
Phase 2: Brexit transition
Reasons for and against a transition period
The contents of a transition deal
Phase 3: a new relationship
UK-EU options
Having EU cake and eating it
Norway/EEA
Switzerland/EFTA
Canadian-style free trade agreement
Customs union
Association agreement
WTO membership
Deep and special partnership
Article 218 TEU: ratifying a new relationship
Views from the remaining EU
Member state views
EU institutional views
Unity in the face of Brexit
EU calculations
Equation 1: Vm > Duk > Vnfm
Equation 2: Duk = FI - CP
Equation 3: Duk = Min (U+B) + Max (M)
Adjusting the EU
Adjusting the EU’s institutions
The EU’s balance of power
EU integration or disintegration
The EU in Europe
EU daily business
Conclusion
Phase 1: Article 50 deal
Phase 2: transition deal or extension of Article 50’s two-year period
Phase 3: A new relationship deal
Further readings
SEVEN: Brexit, Britain, Europe and the world
Introduction
Britain in a multipolar world
Seeking new trade links
The challenges and opportunities of trade deals
Searching for a role
‘Switzerland with nukes’
A ‘pivot’ away from Europe
A UK-EU ‘special relationship’
A global European balancer
Adrift and lost at sea
The UK-US special relationship
Similar concerns about the Trump presidency
UK-EU cooperation in the world
EU-UK international cooperation post Brexit
Europe and transatlantic relations
The EU in a multipolar world
Russian views
Chinese views
Brexit and a changing West
Further readings
Conclusion
Causes
1. Why do you think 51.9 per cent of those who voted chose Leave?
2. Why do you think 48.1 per cent of those who voted chose Remain?
3. Was Britain destined to leave the EU?
4. What effect has Britain’s membership of the EU had on it and vice versa?
5. Should David Cameron have called the referendum or was there another way to handle what he termed Britain’s ‘European Question’?
Consequences
6. Has the EU referendum settled or changed Britain’s ‘European Question’?
7. What does Brexit mean for the rest of the EU?
8. How have non-EU Europe and the rest of the world responded to Brexit?
9. What have been the UK’s and EU’s strategies for Brexit and how should they be approved and scrutinised?
10. Who wins and loses from Brexit?
Meaning
11. ‘Brexit means Brexit’ means what?
12. What theoretical approach best explains and analyses Brexit?
13. How can the success or failure of Brexit be measured?
14. Is Brexit a ‘critical juncture’ for the UK and/or the EU?
15. Is Brexit something that is unique to the UK or something symptomatic of wider trends?
The Brexicon glossary
Timelines of UK-EU relations and Brexit
Key dates in the development of the EU, other European organisations and the UK-EU relationship
The UK-EU renegotiation, referendum and Brexit negotiations
2018 and onwards
Bibliography
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