CONTENTS

Also By Daniel J. Levitin

Introduction: Thinking, Critically

Video: Introduction (4:24)

PART ONE: EVALUATING NUMBERS

Video: Plausibility in General (1:56)

Video: Understanding Percentages and Baselines (3:04)

Fun with Averages

Video: Manipulating Averages (2:45)

Axis Shenanigans

Video: The Double Y-Axis (6:13)

Hijinks with How Numbers Are Reported

How Numbers Are Collected

Video: Data Collection (3:22)

PART TWO: EVALUATING WORDS

How Do We Know?

Identifying Expertise

Overlooked, Undervalued Alternative Explanations

Counterknowledge

PART THREE: EVALUATING THE WORLD

How Science Works

Logical Fallacies

Knowing What You Don’t Know

Bayesian Thinking in Science and in Court

Four Case Studies

Conclusion: Discovering Your Own

Appendix: Application of Bayes’s Rule

Acknowledgments

About the Author