Notes

Chapter 1. The Seeds of Modern Threats

1. People’s Climate March, “Wrap-Up,” http://peoplesclimate.org/wrap-up/; Hansen testimony from Philip Shabecoff, “Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate,” New York Times, June 24, 1988.

2.. “History of Climate Chance Science,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science; World Meteorological Organization, “Declaration of the World Climate Conference” (Geneva: February 1979).

3. Hansen quote from Shabecoff, “Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate.”

4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Human Influence on Climate Clear, IPCC Report Says,” press release (Geneva: September 27, 2013).

5. Robert Engelman, “Beyond Sustainababble,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2013: Is Sustainability Still Possible? (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2013).

6. Upton Sinclair, I, Candidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked (1935) (Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 1994 reprint).

7. Naomi Klein, This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2014).

8. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Towards Green Growth (Paris: 2011), 9.

9. Walter V. Reid et al., Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being, Synthesis Report (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005); fish stocks from United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication (Nairobi: 2011), 20; Robert J. Diaz and Rutger Rosenberg, “Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems,” Science 321, no. 5891 (August 15, 2008): 926–29; “What Causes Ocean ‘Dead Zones’?” Scientific American, September 25, 2012; pollinators from Gary Gardner and Thomas Prugh, “Seeding the Sustainable Economy,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2008 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2008), 3; World Health Organization, “7 Million Premature Deaths Annually Linked to Air Pollution,” press release (Geneva: March 25, 2014).

10. J. R. McNeill, Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2000), 11.

11. Ibid., 13.

12. Mid-1700s from Gary T. Gardner, Inspiring Progress (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006); Science Intelligence and InfoPros, “How Many Science Journals?” January 23, 2012, http://scienceintelligence.wordpress.com/2012/01/23/how-many-science-journals/; Rose Eveleth, “Academics Write Papers Arguing Over How Many People Read (And Cite) Their Papers,” Smithsonian, March 25, 2014; Richard Van Noorden, “Global Scientific Output Doubles Every Nine Years,” Nature Newsblog, May 7, 2014, http://blogs.nature.com/news/2014/05/global-scientific-output-doubles-every-nine-years.html.

13. Gardner, Inspiring Progress.

14. See John M. Gowdy, “Governance, Sustainability, and Evolution,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2014: Governing for Sustainability (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2014), 31–40; McNeill, Something New Under the Sun, xxiv.

15. McNeill, Something New Under the Sun, 15.

16. Ibid., 14, 31; data for 2000 and 2013 from BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 (London: 2014).

17. Gardner, Inspiring Progress.

18. Compiled from U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries (Reston, VA: various editions), and from International Iron and Steel Institute, A Handbook of World Steel Statistics (Brussels: 1978), 1.

19. Quotation, 1970–2010 trend, and China from UNEP, Global Chemicals Outlook – Towards Sound Management of Chemicals (Nairobi: 2013), xv, 11; number of compounds synthesized and in use from McNeill, Something New Under the Sun, 28; doubling from European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic), The European Chemical Industry: Facts & Figures 2013 (Brussels: January 2014).

20. UNEP, Global Chemicals Outlook, xv, 10.

21. McNeill, Something New Under the Sun, 25–26; 2000 data from Matt Styslinger, “Fertilizer Consumption Declines Sharply,” Vital Signs Online (Worldwatch Institute), 21 October 2010; 2013 estimate from Patrick Heffer and Michel Prud’homme, Fertilizer Outlook 2013–2017, prepared for the 81st International Fertilizer Industry Association Conference, Chicago, IL, May 20–22, 2013, 4.

22. Production in 1900 from “The Automobile Industry, 1900–1909,” The History of Technology Website, Bryant University, Smithfield, RI, http://web.bryant.edu/~ehu/h364/materials/cars/cars%20_10.htm; Michael Renner, “Auto Production Sets New Record, Fleet Surpasses 1 Billion Mark,” Vital Signs Online (Worldwatch Institute), June 4, 2014; fleet in 1900 from “History of Motor Car/Automobile Production 1900–2003,” www.carhistory4u.com/the-last-100-years/car-production; 1910 from McNeill, Something New Under the Sun, 60; 1960 from Michael Renner, Rethinking the Role of the Automobile, Worldwatch Paper 84 (Washington, DC: June 1988); 2013 from Colin Couchman, IHS Automotive, London, e-mail to author, May 27, 2014.

23. Changes in emissions calculated from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “1970–2013 Average annual emissions, all criteria pollutants in MS Excel,” February 2014, www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/trends/trends06/national_tier1_caps.xlsx; Table 1–1 adapted from McNeill, Something New Under the Sun, 54.

24. World Steel Association, World Steel in Figures 2014 (Brussels: 2014), 7, 9; 2000 calculated from International Iron and Steel Institute, Steel Statistical Yearbook 2002 (Brussels: 2002), 12.

25. Doubling of production from UNEP, Keeping Track of Our Changing Environment. From Rio to Rio+20 (1992–2012) (Nairobi: October 2011); total extraction trend from Sustainable Europe Research Institute, GLOBAL 2000, and Friends of the Earth Europe, Overconsumption? Our Use of the World’s Natural Resources (Vienna: September 2009), 9–10; Table 1–2 from UNEP, Keeping Track of Our Changing Environment; passenger car statistics calculated from data provided by Couchman, IHS Automotive.

26. Table 1–3 adapted from Chris Bright, “Anticipating Environmental ‘Surprise’,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2000 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2000), Tables 2–1 and 2–2.

27. Nick Breeze, “Global Warming – You Must Be Joking! How Melting Arctic Ice Is Driving Harsh Winters,” The Ecologist, November 21, 2014.

28. McNeill, Something New Under the Sun, 62; Magda Lovei, Phasing Out Lead from Gasoline. Worldwide Experiences and Policy Implications, World Bank Technical Paper No. 397, Pollution Management Series (Washington, DC: 1998); 2011 achievements from Peter Lehner, “Global Phase-out of Lead in Gasoline Succeeds: Major Victory for Kids’ Health,” Switchboard blog (Natural Resources Defense Council), October 27, 2011.

29. “Smog,” Science Daily, www.sciencedaily.com/articles/s/smog.htm; “Smog,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smog.

30. Molly O. Sheehan, “CFC Use Declining,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2002), 54–55; Alana Herro, “Ozone Layer Stabilizing But Not Recovered,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2007–2008 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2007), 45–46; UNEP, “Ozone Layer on Track to Recovery: Success Story Should Encourage Action on Climate,” press release (Nairobi: September 10, 2014).

31. Heinrich Böll Stiftung and Friends of the Earth Europe, Meat Atlas: Facts and Figures About the Animals We Eat (Berlin and Brussels: 2014), 26; “Another Strike Against GMOs – The Creation of Superbugs and Superweeds,” GMO Inside blog, March 31, 2014; Tom Laskawy, “First Came Superweeds; Now Come the Superbugs!,” Grist, March 25, 2010.

32. Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006), 253. Also see Homer-Dixon’s discussion in Chapter 9 of his book for an extended discussion of cycles of growth, collapse, regeneration, and renewed growth in the context of forest systems. Similar characteristics can be observed in human societies.

Chapter 2. Energy, Credit, and the End of Growth

1. U.S. Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (Washington, DC: February 4, 2014); William H. Gross, “Investment Outlook: For Wonks Only” (Newport Beach, CA: PIMCO, September 2014).

2. U.S. Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013 (Washington, DC: September 2014); U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), “Petroleum & Other Liquids: Product Supplied,” www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_a.htm, updated November 26, 2014; Doug Short, “Vehicle Miles Traveled: A Structural Change in Our Behavior,” October 20, 2014, www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Driven.php; Jan Luiten van Zanden et al., eds., How Was Life? Global Well-being Since 1820 (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2014); Blake Ellis, “28% of Americans Have No Emergency Savings,” CNN Money, June 25, 2012.

3. The Editors of Encyclopædia Britannica, “Trophic Pyramid,” Encyclopædia Brittanica, updated February 3, 2013, www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/606499/trophic-pyramid.

4. Robert W. Howarth, “Coastal Nitrogen Pollution: A Review of Sources and Trends Globally and Regionally, Harmful Algae 8, no. 1 (December 2008): 14–20; Figure 2–1 from the following sources: energy consumption compiled by author from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy (London: 2011), from Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects (Praeger: Santa Barbara, CA, 2010), from Suneeta D. Fernandes et al., “Global Biofuel Use 1850–2000,” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21, no. 2 (June 2007), and from IHS Energy; population data for 1800–1950 from United Nations Population Division, The World at Six Billion (New York: 1999), 5; population data for 1960–2012 from U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs, “World Population,” www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_population.php, viewed November 17, 2014.

5. Box 2–1 from ejolt, “Human Energy Use (Endosomatic/Exosomatic),” www.ejolt.org/2012/12/human-energy-use-endosomatic-exosomatic/, and from “General Laborer Salaries,” Salary.com, http://www1.salary.com/General-Laborer-salary.html; Table 2–1 adapted from Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER), “Green Growth: An Oxymoron?” July 31, 2011, www.iier.ch/content/green-growth-oxymoron.

6. Figure 2–2 from the following sources: GDP from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, “Real GDP (2010 dollars) Historical,” International Macroeconomic Data Set, www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-macroeconomic-data-set.aspx, viewed November 2014; electricity from EIA, “Total Electricity Net Generation,” International Energy Statistics, www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=12, viewed November 2014, road and marine transportation fuels from ExxonMobil, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (Irving, TX: 2014 and previous years); primary energy from EIA, “Total Primary Energy Production, International Energy Statistics, www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=44&pid=44&aid=1, viewed November 2014. Note that electricity generation and primary energy production data are used as an approximation for consumption levels.

7. IIER, Low Carbon and Economic Growth – Key Challenges (Meilen, Switzerland: July 2011).

8. IIER, “Green Growth: An Oxymoron?” 18; Max Kingsley-Jones, “Emirates Begins Parting Out Its A340-500s,” Flight International, September 23, 2013; EIA, “The Cement Industry Is the Most Energy Intensive of All Manufacturing Industries,” Today in Energy, July 1, 2013, www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11911.

9. Megan C. Guilford et al., “A New Long Term Assessment of Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for U.S. Oil and Gas Discovery and Production,” Sustainability 3, no. 10 (2011): 1866–87.

10. N. Beveridge et al., Era of Cheap Oil Over As Secular Growth in Upstream Cost Inflation Underpins Triple Digit Oil Prices (New York: Bernstein Energy, 2012); Goldman Sachs, Higher Long-Term Prices Required for Troubled Industry (New York: April 12, 2013); Russell Gold and Erin Ailworth, “Fracking Firms Get Tested by Oil’s Price Drop,” Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2014. Box 2–3 from the following sources: natural gas shortfall in Kevin Landfried, Jeffrey Steimer, and Barbara Weber, “Bridging the Gap,” LNG Industry, Autumn 2005; Mike Ruppert, “Interview with Matthew Simmons,” August 18, 2003, www.oilcrash.com/articles/blackout.htm; horizontal drilling from Dan O’Brien, “Longest Lateral: Consol Innovates Efficiencies,” Business Journal (Youngstown, OH), November 16, 2013; U.S. oil and gas production from BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 (London: 2014), 8, 24; McKinsey Global Institute, Game Changers: Five Opportunities for US Growth and Renewal (New York: 2013); Thomas H. Darrah et al., “Noble Gases Identify the Mechanisms of Fugitive Gas Contamination in Drinking-water Wells Overlying the Marcellus and Barnett Shales,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 39 (September 30, 2014): 14076–81; Joe Eaton, “Oklahoma Grapples with Earthquake Spike—and Evidence of Industry’s Role,” National Geographic News, July 31, 2014.

11. Tyler Durden, “The Imploding Energy Sector Is Responsible for a Third of S&P 500 Capex,” Zero Hedge, November 30, 2014, www.zerohedge.com/news; EIA, “Oil and Gas Industry Employment Growing Much Faster Than Total Private Sector Employment,” Today in Energy, August 8, 2013, www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12451.

12. Tad W. Patzek, “Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle,” Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 23, no. 6 (2004): 519–67; Platts, Special Report: New Crudes, New Markets (New York: March 2013).

13. David J. Murphy and Charles A. S. Hall, “Energy Return on Investment, Peak Oil, and the End of Economic Growth,” in Robert Costanza, Karin Limburg, and Ida Kubiszewski, eds., “Ecological Economics Reviews,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1219 (February 2011): 52–72.

14. Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, and Ryland Thomas, “Money Creation in the Modern Economy,” Quarterly Bulletin (Bank of England), 2014 Q1.

15. Josh Ryan-Collins et al., Where Does Money Come From? A Guide to the UK Monetary and Banking System (London: New Economics Foundation, September 29, 2011).

16. McLeay, Radia, and Thomas, “Money Creation in the Modern Economy.”

17. Bank for International Settlements, “Debt Securities Statistics,” www.bis.org/statistics/secstats.htm; EIA, Monthly Energy Review (Washington, DC: December 2014), 151. Box 2–4 from the following sources: Sam Ro, “Here Are the Breakeven Oil Prices for America’s Shale Basins,” Business Insider, October 22, 2014, www.businessinsider.com/shale-basin-breakeven-prices-2014-10; Bob Pisani, “Here’s Why Oil Stocks are Tanking,” CNBC, October 10, 2014, www.cnbc.com/id/102078976; APICORP Research, “OPEC in the Future: Will It Continue to Play a Pivotal Role?” Economic Commentary 9, no. 10 (October 2014), Table 11; Kristen Hays, “Exclusive: New U.S. Oil and Gas Well November Permits Tumble Nearly 40 Percent,” Reuters, December 2, 2014.

18. Global Economic Intersection, “$15 Trillion Central Bank Balance Sheets (Fictitious Capital?),” January 31, 2012, http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog1.php/2012/01/31/15-trillion-central-bank-balance-sheets-fictitious-capital.

Chapter 3. The Trouble with Growth

1. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, “An Innovative Society for the Twenty-first Century” conference, Paris, July 12–13, 2013; goals from Dan O’Neill, “A Post-Growth Economy in France?” Center for Advancement of a Steady-State Economy blog, July 2013, http://steadystate.org/a-post-growth-economy-in-france/.

2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Reports,” www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml, viewed October 28, 2014; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Living Beyond Our Means: Natural Assets and Human Well-being: Statement from the Board (March 2005); Johan Rockstrom et al., “Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity,” Ecology and Society 14, no. 2 (September 2009); WWF, Living Planet Report 2014 (Gland, Switzerland: 2014).

3. Heinz W. Arndt, The Rise and Fall of Economic Growth: A Study in Contemporary Thought (Melbourne: Longman Cheshire, 1978), 30.

4. John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money (New York: Harcourt-Brace, 1936).

5. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Convention on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Paris: OECD, 1960).

6. Peter A.Victor, ed., The Costs of Economic Growth. (Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar, 2013).

7. Herman E. Daly and John B. Cobb, For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy Toward Community, the Environment, and a Sustainable Future (Boston: Beacon Press, 1994).

8. Daly and Cobb, For the Common Good; Ida Kubiszewski et al., “Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress,” Ecological Economics 93 (September 2013): 57–93.

9. Herman E. Daly, Steady-State Economics: The Economics of Biophysical Equilibrium and Moral Growth (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1977).

10. OECD, Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth (Paris: 2014); OECD, Towards Green Growth. A Summary for Policy Makers (Paris: 2011).

11. Tim Jackson, Material Concerns: Pollution, Profit and the Quality of Life (Oxon, U.K.: Routledge, 1996); Julian M. Allwood and Jonathan M. Cullen, Sustainable Materials – With Both Eyes Open (Cambridge, U.K.: UIT Cambridge, 2012).

12. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, Better Growth Better Climate. The New Climate Economy Report. The Synthesis Report (Washington, DC: 2014); Gunter Pauli, The Blue Economy. !0 Years, 100 Innovations, 100 Million Jobs (Taos, NM: Paradigm Publications, 2010); Ellen MacArthur Foundation, Towards the Circular Economy, Vols. 1–3 (Cowes, Isle of Wight, U.K: 2012–14).

13. Factor 10 Institute, www.factor10-institute.org. Before Factor 10 there was Factor 4; see Ernst von Weizsäcker, Amory B. Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, Factor Four: Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use (London: Earthscan, 1997). After Factor 10, there came Factor 5; see Ernst von Weizsäcker et al., Factor 5: Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Improvements in Resource Productivity (Oxon, U.K.: Routledge, 2009).

14. Vaclav Smil, Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization (West Sussex, U.K.: Wiley, 2013); Smil uses dematerialization rather than decoupling, but for consistency decoupling is used throughout the chapter except where Smil is quoted directly; Tim Jackson, Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (London: Earthscan, 2009).

15. William S. Jevons, The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal-mines (New York: A. M. Kelley, 1865); Mona Chitnis et al., “Who Rebounds Most? Estimating Direct and Indirect Rebound Effects for Different UK Socioeconomic Groups,” Ecological Economics 106 (October 2014): 12–32; Mona Chitnis et al., “Turning Lights into Flights: Estimating Direct and Indirect Rebound Effects for UK Households,” Energy Policy 55 (April 2013): 234–50.

16. Smil, Making the Modern World, 180. Smil’s primary focus is on materials other than fossil fuels, although when he does discuss energy and decarbonization he says that despite the ongoing process of relative decarbonization, “there is no imminent prospects for any major reductions in absolute emissions of CO₂ . . .” (ibid, 154).

17. Angela Druckman and Tim Jackson, “The Carbon Footprint of UK Households 1990-2004: A Socio-economically Disaggregated, Quasi-multiregional Input-Output Model,” Ecological Economics 68, no. 7 (May 2009): 2066–77.

18. Thomas O. Wiedmann et al., “The Material Footprint of Nations,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 2013, 1–6; M. Lenzen et al., “Mapping the Structure of the World Economy,” Environmental Science & Technology 46, no. 15 (2012): 8374–81; M. Lenzen et al., “Building Eora: A Global Multi-Region Input-Output Database at High Country and Sector Resolution,” Economic Systems Research 25, no. 1 (2013): 20–49.

19. Wiedmann et al., “The Material Footprint of Nations,” 4.

20. John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy: With Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy (London: Penguin Books, 1970), 113–14.

21. Ibid., 114, 116.

22. Peter A. Victor, Managing Without Growth. Slower by Design, Not Disaster (Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar, 2008); Tim Jackson, Prosperity Without Growth.

23. Tim Jackson and Peter A. Victor, “Productivity and Work in the ‘Green Economy’: Some Theoretical Reflections and Empirical Tests,” Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 1, no. 1 (June 2011): 101–08; Tim Jackson and Peter A. Victor, Green Economy at Community Scale (Toronto, ON: The Metcalf Foundation, 2013); Tim Jackson and Peter A. Victor, Does Low Growth Increase Inequality? (Guildford, U.K.: University of Surrey, 2014).

24. Victor, Managing Without Growth. Figure 3–2 based on idem, 182.

25. Giorgos Kallis, Christian Kerschner, and Joan Martinez-Alier, “The Economics of Degrowth,” Ecological Economics 84 (December 2012): 172–80; Peter A. Victor, “Growth, Degrowth and Climate Change: A Scenario Analysis,” Ecological Economics 84 (December 2012): 206–12; Giacomo D’Alisa, Federico Demaria, and Giorgos Kallis, eds., Degrowth: A Vocabulary for a New Era (London: Routledge, 2014).

26. Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014).

Chapter 4. Avoiding Stranded Assets

1. Ben Caldecott, James Tilbury, and Yuge Ma, Stranded Down Under? Environment-Related Factors Changing China’s Demand for Coal and What This Means for Australian Coal Assets (Oxford, U.K.: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, 2013).

2. Ibid.; The White House, “U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change,” press release (Washington, DC: November 11, 2014).

3. Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, “Stranded Assets Programme: Introduction,” www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research/stranded-assets.

4. Ibid.; Table 4–1 based on Ben L. Caldecott, Nicholas Howarth, and Patrick McSharry, Stranded Assets in Agriculture: Protecting Value from Environment-Related Risks (Oxford, U.K.: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, 2013).

5. Carbon Tracker, Unburnable Carbon: Are the World’s Financial Markets Carrying a Carbon Bubble? (London: 2011); Bill McKibben, “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math,” Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012.

6. Carbon Tracker, Unburnable Carbon.

7. Atif Ansar, Ben L. Caldecott, and James Tilbury, Stranded Assets and the Fossil Fuel Divestment Campaign: What Does Divestment Mean for the Valuation of Fossil Fuel Assets? (Oxford, U.K.: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, 2013); HSBC Global Research, Coal and Carbon. Stranded Assets: Assessing the Risk (London: 2012); Elad Jelasko, Carbon Constraints Cast a Shadow Over the Future of the Coal Industry (London: Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, July 2014); Justin Gillis, “U.N. Panel Warns of Dire Effects From Lack of Action Over Global Warming,” New York Times, November 3, 2014.

8. Lesley Fleischman et al., “Ripe for Retirement: An Economic Analysis of the U.S. Coal Fleet,” The Electricity Journal 26, no. 10 (2013): 51–63; P. Knight et al., Forecasting Coal Unit Competitiveness: Coal Retirement Assessment Using Synapse’s Coal Asset Valuation Tool (CAVT) (Cambridge, MA: Synapse Energy Economics, 2013).

9. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “EPA Proposes First Guidelines to Cut Carbon Pollution from Existing Power Plants,” press release (Washington, DC: June 2, 2014); U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review (Washington, DC: July 2014).

10. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2030 Market Outlook (London: 2013).

11. Fleischman et al., “Ripe for Retirement: An Economic Analysis of the U.S. Coal Fleet.”

12. Barney Jopson and Ed Crooks, “Obama Proposes Biggest Ever US Push for Carbon Cuts,” Financial Times, June 2, 2014; Atkins quote from Mark Chediak and Jim Polson, “Obama Climate Proposal Will Shift Industry Foundations,” Bloomberg News, June 2, 2014.

13. Knight et al., Forecasting Coal Unit Competitiveness; Thomas Tindall and Fabien Roques, Keeping Europe’s Lights on: Design and Impact of Capacity Mechanisms (London: IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc., 2013).

14. Louis-Mathieu Perrin, Benchmarking European Power and Utility Asset Impairments (Paris: EY, 2013), 5.

15. Mark C. Lewis, Stranded Assets, Fossilised Revenues: USD28trn of Fossil-Fuel Revenues at Risk in a 450-ppm World (Paris: Kepler Cheuvreux and ESG Sustainability Research, April 24, 2014).

16. Carbon Tracker, Unburnable Carbon, 32.

17. Nafeez Ahmed, “The Inevitable Demise of the Fossil Fuel Empire,” The Guardian (U.K.), June 10, 2014; Mark Fulton and Reid Capalino, “Trillion-dollar Question: Is Big Oil Over-investing in High-cost Projects?” RenewEconomy.com.au, May 21, 2014.

18. Goldman Sachs, 380 Projects to Change the World: From Resource Constraint to Infrastructure Constraint (New York: 2013), 126.

19. Box 4–2 from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005), and from Trucost Plc, Natural Capital at Risk: The Top 100 Externalities of Business, prepared for the TEEB for Business Coalition (London: April 15, 2013).

20. Caldecott, Tilbury, and Ma, Stranded Down Under?

21. Brian J. Henderson, Neal D. Pearson, and Li Wang, New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets, updated November 18, 2014, http://ssrn.com/abstract=1990828; Ing-Haw Cheng and Wei Xiong, The Financialization of Commodity Markets, NBER Working Paper No. 19642 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2013); Troy Sternberg, “Chinese Drought, Wheat, and the Egyptian Uprising: How a Localized Hazard Became Globalized,” in Caitlin E. Werrell and Francesco Femia, eds., The Arab Spring and Climate Change: A Climate and Security Correlations Series (Washington, DC: Center for American Progress, 2013).

22. Sternberg, 7.

23. George Welton, “The Impact of Russia’s 2010 Grain Export Ban,” Oxfam Policy and Practice: Agriculture, Food and Land 11, no. 5 (2011): 76–107; J. A. Lampietti et al., “A Strategic Framework for Improving Food Security in Arab Countries,” Food Security 3, no. 1 (2011): 7–22; Index Mundi, “Wheat Imports by Country in 1000 MT,” 2013, www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?commodity=wheat&graph=imports; André Croppenstedt, Maurice Saade, and Gamal M. Siam, “Food Security and Wheat Policy in Egypt,” Roles of Agriculture Project Policy Brief (Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, October 2006).

24. Table 4–2 from Trucost Plc, Natural Capital at Risk.

25. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects: Commodities at the Crossroads (Washington, DC: 2009); Savills Research – Rural, International Farmland Focus 2012 (London: 2012), 4. Although converting to U.S. dollars per hectare can have an effect on annual growth rates in terms of domestic currency, it does allow potential investors a good starting point for comparable analysis.

26. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K. and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

27. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz et al., “Chapter 3: Freshwater Resources and Their Management,” in M. L. Parry et al., eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K. and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), 187; Eleanor Burke, Simon Brown, and Nikolaos Christidis, “Modelling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the 21st Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model,” Journal of Hydrometeorology 7 (2006): 1113–25; T. P. Barnett, J. C. Adam, and D. P. Lettenmaier, “Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate on Water Availability in Snow Dominated Regions,” Nature 438 (November 17, 2005): 303–09; Bryson Bates et al., eds., Climate Change and Water, IPCC Technical Paper VI (Geneva: IPCC, 2008).

28. Box 4–3 from Ben Caldecott, “The Solution to Coal Plants? Pay Their Owners to Close Them,” ChinaDialogue.net, September 19, 2014.

29. Gordon L. Clark, Andreas Feiner, and Michael Viehs, From the Stockholder to the Stakeholder: How Sustainability Can Drive Financial Outperformance (Oxford, U.K.: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, October 20, 2014).

Chapter 5. Mounting Losses of Agricultural Resources

1. Richard Howitt et al., Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought for California Agriculture (Davis, CA: Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis, July 2014); 5 percent is a Worldwatch calculation based on total irrigated farmland in California, from the following sources: about 10 million acres in 2000 from Susan S. Hutson et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000 (Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey, updated February 2005), Table 7; about 9 million acres from American Farmland Trust, “California Drought Increases Need to Conserve Farmland,” www.farmland.org/programs/states/ca/CA-Drought-NeedtoConserveFarmland.asp, viewed December 10, 2014.

2. Susanne Moser et al., Our Changing Climate 2012: Vulnerability & Adaptation to the Increasing Risks from Climate Change in California (Sacramento, CA: California Climate Change Center, July 2012); Dan Cayan et al., Scenarios of Climate Change in California: An Overview (Sacramento, CA: California Climate Change Center, February 2006).

3. Hectares and San Franciscos based on acreage conversion data from California Department of Conservation, California Farmland Conversion Report 2008–2010 (Sacramento, CA: April 2014), and from U.S. Census Bureau, “State and County QuickFacts,” http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/06075.html, viewed October 8, 2014.

4. Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision (Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), June 2012), 61, 95; United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), “UNEP’s Emerging Issues” (Nairobi: 2011), www.unep.org/pdf/RIO20/UNEP-%20Emerging-Issues.pdf.

5. FAO, International Fund for Agricultural Development, and World Food Programme, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2014. Strengthening the Enabling Environment for Food Security and Nutrition (Rome, FAO, 2014).

6. Biofuel shares from FAO, “The State of Food and Agriculture,” conference document (Rome: June 2013).

7. Alexandratos and Bruinsma, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050; FAO, “Global Capture Production” and “Global Aquaculture Production,” Fishery Statistical Collections, electronic databases, www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/en, viewed November 2014.

8. Alexandratos and Bruinsma, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050; FAO, “Coping with Water Scarcity in the Near East and North Africa,” fact sheet prepared for Regional Conference for the Near East, Rome, February 24–28, 2014, www.fao.org/docrep/019/as215e/as215e.pdf.

9. Malin Falkenmark, “Growing Water Scarcity in Agriculture: Future Challenge to Global Water Security,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 371, no. 2002 (November 13, 2013).

10. Arjen Y. Hoekstra, “Global Monthly Water Scarcity: Blue Water Footprints versus Blue Water Availability,” PLOS ONE 7, no. 2 (2012); “Egypt to ‘Escalate’ Ethiopian Dam Dispute,” Al Jazeera, April 21, 2014.

11. Stephen Foster and Tushaar Shah, Groundwater Resources and Irrigated Agriculture: Making a Beneficial Relation More Sustainable (Stockholm: Global Water Partnership, 2012); UNEP, “A Glass Half Empty: Regions at Risk Due to Groundwater Depletion,” January 2012, www.unep.org/pdf/UNEP-GEAS_JAN_2012.pdf; Falkenmark, “Growing Water Scarcity in Agriculture”; Katalyn A. Voss et al., “Groundwater Depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region,” Water Resources Research 49, no. 2 (February 2013): 904–14; Cynthia Barnett, “Groundwater Wake-up,” Ensia (University of Minnesota), August 19, 2013.

12. Table 5–1 based on World Bank, “Renewable Internal Freshwater Resources per Capita (cubic meters),” electronic database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC; Jacob Schewe et al., “Multimodel Assessment of Water Scarcity Under Climate Change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 9 (December 16, 2013): 3245–50.

13. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, International Decade for Action “Water for Life” 2005–2015, “Water Scarcity,” www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml.

14. Water scarcity from World Bank, “Renewable Internal Freshwater Resources per Capita (cubic meters),” electronic database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ER.H2O.INTR.PC; import dependence a Worldwatch calculation based on data from U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), “Production, Supply, and Distribution,” electronic database, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdQuery.aspx, viewed September 15, 2014.

15. Arjen Y. Hoekstra and Mesfin M. Mekonnen, “The Water Footprint of Humanity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, no. 9 (February 28, 2012).

16. Ibid.; Arjen Y. Hoekstra, “Water Security of Nations: How International Trade Affects National Water Scarcity and Dependency,” Threats to Global Water Security, NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security (2009): 27–36.

17. FAO, The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture; Alexandratos and Bruinsma, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050, 105.

18. L. R. Oldeman, R. T. A. Hakkeling, and W. G. Sombroek, World Map of the Status of Human-Induced Soil Degradation: An Explanatory Note (Wageningen: International Soil Reference and Information Centre and Nairobi: UNEP, October 1990); Z. G. Bai et al., “Proxy Global Assessment of Land Degradation,” Soil Use and Management 24, no. 3 (September 2008): 223–34; FAO, The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture.

19. Fred Pearce, “Splash and Grab: The Global Scramble for Water,” New Scientist, March 2, 2013, 28–29; Japan area of 377,915 square kilometers from U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, “Country Comparison: Area,” in The World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2147rank.html, viewed August 13, 2014; shares based on Land Matrix, “Intention of Investment,” http://landmatrix.org/en/get-the-idea/dynamics-overview/, viewed September 24, 2014; Table 5–2 from Land Matrix, “Web of Transnational Deals,” http://landmatrix.org/en/get-the-idea/web-transnational-deals/, viewed November 13, 2014.

20. Lorenzo Cotulo, Land Deals in Africa: What Is in the Contracts? (London: International Institute for Environment and Development, 2011); Brian Bienkowski and Environmental Health News, “Corporations Grabbing Land and Water Overseas,” Scientific American, February 12, 2013; Table 5–3 from Land Matrix, “Web of Transnational Deals.”

21. Bienkowski and Environmental Health News, “Corporations Grabbing Land and Water Overseas”; Ward Anseeuw et al., Land Rights and the Rush for Land: Findings of the Global Commercial Pressures on Land Research Project (Rome: International Land Coalition, 2012).

22. John R. Porter and Liyong Xie, “Chapter 7. Food Security and Food Production Systems,” in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press. 2014); Gerald C. Nelson et al., Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, October 2009); Cynthia Rosenzweig et al., “Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 9 (March 4, 2014): 3268–73.

23. Christopher B. Field et al., “Summary for Policymakers,” in IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; Porter and Xie, “Chapter 7. Food Security and Food Production Systems.”

24. Joshua Elliott et al., “Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 9 (March 4, 2014): 3239–44

25. Porter and Xie, “Chapter 7. Food Security and Food Production Systems.”

26. Table 5–4 based on USDA, FAS, “Production, Supply, and Distribution.”

27. Figure 5–1 and Central America, Middle East and North Africa, and Japan are Worldwatch calculations based on data from USDA, FAS, “Production, Supply, and Distribution”; other regions from Stacey Rosen, USDA, Economic Research Service, personal communication with author, December 9, 2014.

28. Hoekstra and Mekonnen, “The Water Footprint of Humanity.”

29. Jenny Gustavsson et al., Global Food Losses and Food Waste: Extent, Causes, and Prevention (Rome: FAO, 2011); UNEP, “Food Waste Facts” (Nairobi: 2013), www.unep.org/wed/2013/quickfacts/.

30. CGIAR, “Postharvest Loss Reduction – A Significant Focus of CGIAR Research,” November 20, 2013, www.cgiar.org/consortium-news/postharvest-loss-reduction-a-significant-focus-of-cgiar-research/; Gustavsson et al., “Global Food Losses and Food Waste”; Aramark Higher Education, The Business and Cultural Case for Trayless Dining (Philadelphia, PA: July 2008).

31. UNEP, “Food Waste Facts.”

32. Mesfin M. Mekonnen and Arjen Y. Hoekstra, “Water Footprint Benchmarks for Crop Production: A First Global Assessment,” Ecological Indicators 46 (November 2014): 214–23.

33. Table 5–5 from Ibid.

34. USDA, “Production, Supply, and Distribution”; Table 5–6 from Arjen Y. Hoekstra, “The Water Footprint of Animal Products,” in J. D’Silva and J. Webster, eds., The Meat Crisis: Developing More Sustainable Production and Consumption (London: Earthscan, 2010); J. Liu and H. H. G. Savenije, “Food Consumption Patterns and Their Effect on Water Requirement in China,” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12 (2008): 887–98.

35. Arjen Y. Hoekstra, “Water for Animal Products: A Blind Spot in Water Policy,” Environmental Research Letters 9 (2014); Arjen Y. Hoekstra, “The Hidden Water Resource Use Behind Meat and Dairy,” Animal Frontiers 2, no. 2 (April 2012): 3–8.

36. Estimates of 30 and 40 percent from USDA, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022 (Washington, DC: February 2013); Rosamond Naylor, “Biofuels, Rural Development, and the Changing Nature of Agricultural Demand,” paper presented at the Symposium Series on Global Food Policy and Food Security, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, April 11, 2012; FAO, “The State of Food and Agriculture.”

37. Marianela Fader, “Spatial Decoupling of Agricultural Production and Consumption: Quantifying Dependences of Countries on Food Imports Due to Domestic Land and Water Constraints,” Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 1 (2013). See also Appendix A of the article, which cites additional studies that offer other perspectives, and Miina Porkka et al., “From Food Insufficiency Towards Trade Dependency: A Historical Analysis of Global Food Availability,” PLOS ONE 8, no. 12 (December 18, 2013); FAO, The Right to Food: Past Commitment, Current Obligation, Further Action for the Future: A Ten-Year Retrospective on the Right to Food Guidelines (Rome: 2014).

Chapter 6. The Oceans: Resilience at Risk

1. Herman Melville, Moby-Dick (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1979).

2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce, “Brief History of the Groundfish Industry of New England,” www.nefsc.noaa.gov/history/stories/groundfish/grndfsh1.html, viewed November 4, 2014.

3. NOAA National Ocean Service, “How Much of the Ocean Have We Explored?” http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/exploration.html, viewed October 12, 2014.

4. Estimate of 3 billion from United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Global Aquaculture Advancement Partnership (GAAP) Programme, prepared for the Seventh Session of the COFI Sub-Committee on Aquaculture, St. Petersburg, Russia, October 7–11, 2013; LIFDCs from “The Role of Seafood in Global Food Security,” advance and unedited reporting material on the topic of focus of the fifteenth meeting of the United Nations Open-ended Informal Consultative Process on Oceans and the Law of the Sea, March 14, 2014, www.un.org/depts/los/consultative_process/documents/adv_uned_mat.pdf; Table 6–1 from Gertjan de Graaf and Luca Garibaldi, The Value of African Fisheries (Rome: FAO, 2014); Joint Ocean Commission Initiative, America’s Ocean Future: Ensuring Healthy Oceans to Support a Vibrant Economy (Washington, DC: June 2011).

5. Figure 6–1 from FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (Rome: 2014).

6. California Environmental Associates, Charting a Course to Sustainable Fisheries (San Francisco: July 2012); FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture.

7. Boris Worm et al., “Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services,” Science 314, no. 787 (November 3, 2006): 787–90.

8. National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod: 2014 Assessment Update (Woods Hole, MA: August 22, 2014).

9. Dennis M. King and Jon G. Sutinen, “Rational Noncompliance and the Liquidation of Northeast Groundfish Resources,” Marine Policy 34 (2010): 7–10; Pew Charitable Trusts, Risky Decisions: How Denial and Delay Brought Disaster to New England’s Historic Fishing Grounds (Philadelphia, PA: October 2014).

10. Katie Auth, Fishing for Common Ground: Broadening the Definition of “Rights-based” Fisheries Management in Iceland’s Westfjords (Akureyri, Iceland: University of Akureyri, 2012).

11. Boris Worm et al., “Rebuilding Global Fisheries,” Science 325, no. 5940 (July 31, 2009): 578–85; California Environmental Associates, Charting a Course to Sustainable Fisheries.

12. E. Griffin et al., Predators as Prey: Why Healthy Oceans Need Sharks (Washington, DC: Oceana, 2008); Ransom A. Myers et al., “Cascading Effects of the Loss of Apex Predatory Sharks from a Coastal Ocean,” Science 315, no. 5820 (March 30, 2007): 1846–50.

13. Bettina Wassener, “China Says No More Shark Fin Soup at State Banquets,” New York Times, July 3, 2012; FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, 122.

14. FAO, The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture.

15. California Environmental Associates, Charting a Course to Sustainable Fisheries.

16. Global Carbon Project, Global Carbon Budget 2014 (Canberra, Australia: September 21, 2014).

17. Xianyao Chen and Ka-Kit Tung, “Varying Planetary Heat Sink Led to Global-warming Slowdown and Acceleration,” Science 345, no. 6199 (August 22, 2014): 897–903; Galen A. McKinley et al., “Convergence of Atmospheric and North Atlantic Carbon Dioxide Trends on Multidecadal Timescales,” Nature Geoscience 4 (June 2011): 606–10.

18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K. and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014); NOAA Fisheries, Ecosystem Advisory for the Northeast Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem, no. 1 (2014).

19. IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Janet Nye et al., “Changing Spatial Distribution of Fish Stocks in Relation to Climate and Population Size on the Northeast United States Continental Shelf,” Marine Ecology Progress Series 393 (2009): 111–29.

20. Rachel W. Obbard et al., “Global Warming Releases Microplastic Legacy Frozen in Arctic Sea Ice,” Earth’s Future 2, no. 6 (June 2014): 315–20.

21. Kara Lavender Law and Richard C. Thompson, “Microplastics in the Seas,” Science 345, no. 6193 (July 11, 2014): 144–45.

22. Obbard et al., “Global Warming Releases Microplastic Legacy Frozen in Arctic Sea Ice.”

23. NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) Carbon Program, “What Is Ocean Acidification?” www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/What+is+Ocean+Acidification%3F, viewed October 13, 2014; IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

24. NOAA PMEL Carbon Program, “What Is Ocean Acidification?”; IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

25. IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Victoria J. Fabry et al., “Ocean Acidification at High Latitudes: The Bellwether,” Oceanography 22, no. 4 (2009): 160–71.

26. IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

27. Ibid.

28. Ibid.

29. Katherine E. Mills et al., “Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate: Lessons from the 2012 Ocean Heat Wave in the Northwest Atlantic,” Oceanography 26, no. 2 (2013): 191–95; Michael Wines and Jess Bidgood, “Waters Warm, and Cod Catch Ebbs in Maine,” New York Times, December 14, 2014; Pew Charitable Trusts, Risky Decisions: How Denial and Delay Brought Disaster to New England’s Historic Fishing Grounds, 11.

30. “Atlantic Puffin Population Is in Danger, Scientists Warn,” Associated Press, June 3, 2013.

31. Ibid.

32. IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; Northern Economics, The Seafood Industry in Alaska’s Economy: 2011 Executive Summary Update (Juneau, AK: Marine Conservation Alliance, 2011).

33. J. T. Mathis et al., “Ocean Acidification Risk Assessment for Alaska’s Fishery Sector,” Progress in Oceanography (2014), doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.07.001; IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Chapter 7. Whose Arctic Is It?

1. Henry Huntington and Gunter Weller, “An Introduction to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment,” in Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2005), 3; 4 degrees from National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), “Climate Change in the Arctic,” https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_change.html; 50-year period and Figure 7–1 from U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP),” http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/, viewed November 7, 2014.

2. Figure 7–2 from F. Fetterer et al., “Sea Ice Index,” NSIDC, http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/, viewed November 2014; D. Perovich et al., “Sea Ice,” in M. O. Jeffries, J. Richter Menge, and J. E. Overland, eds., Arctic Report Card 2014 (Washington, DC: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, December 2014), 35.

3. Kristina Pistone, Ian Eisenman, and V. Ramanathan, “Observational Determination of Albedo Decrease Caused by Vanishing Arctic Sea Ice,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 9 (2014): 3322–26.

4. See, for example, Natalia Shakhova et al., “Ebullition and Storm-Induced Methane Release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf,” Nature Geoscience 7 (2014): 64–70.

5. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Arctic Ocean Acidification 2013: An Overview (Oslo, Norway: 2014), ix.

6. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2005).

7. Jessica Gordon, “Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to Hold Hearing After Rejecting Inuit Climate Change Petition,” Sustainable Development Law & Policy, Winter 2007, 55.

8. E. Rignot et al., “Acceleration of the Contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea Level Rise,” Geophysical Research Letters (2011), 38.

9. See, for example, Dim Coumou et al., “Quasi-Resonant Circulation Regimes and Hemispheric Synchronization of Extreme Weather in Boreal Summer,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 34 (August 26, 2014): 12331–36; Baek-Min Kim et al., “Weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex by Arctic Sea-Ice Loss,” Nature Communications 5 (September 2, 2014).

10. Save the Arctic website, www.savethearctic.org; European Commission, “European Parliament Resolution of 9 October 2008 on Arctic Governance” (Brussels: October 9, 2008).

11. Oklaik Eegeeisak, Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference, remarks made at Arctic Council meeting, Reykjavik, Iceland, November 2, 2014.

12. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, Article 76 (5), Part VI, “Continental Shelf,” www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part6.htm.

13. Figure 7–3 from maribus gGmbH, World Ocean Review 1 (Hamburg: 2010).

14. Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act, www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/43/chapter-33; M. Nuttall, “Self-Rule in Greenland: Towards the World’s First Independent Inuit State?” Indigenous Affairs 3–4 (2008): 64–70; Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami, “Vision of Self-Government,” https://www.itk.ca/about-inuit/vision-self-government; Yukon First Nations Land Claims Settlement Act, http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/Y-2.3/; Canada Yukon Oil and Gas Accord, https://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1369314748335/1369314778328; Yukon Northern Affairs Program Devolution Transfer Agreement, www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1297283624739/1297283711723; Northwest Territories Lands and Resources Devolution Agreement, http://devolution.gov.nt.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Final-Devolution-Agreement.pdf.

15. Robert Papp, Jr., “The U.S. Arctic Council Chairmanship,” remarks made at the Passing the Arctic Council Torch conference, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, September 30, 2014.

16. Clifford Krauss, “Shell Submits a Plan for New Exploration of Alaskan Arctic Oil,” New York Times, August 28, 2014; Kevin McGwin, “Cairn ‘Too Busy’ for Greenland in 2014,” Arctic Journal, January 21, 2014.

17. Gro Harlem Brundtland and World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press, 1987), 41.

Chapter 8. Emerging Diseases from Animals

1. Sylvain Baize et al., “Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea,” New England Journal of Medicine 371 (October 9, 2014): 1418–25.

2. World Health Organization (WHO), “Situation Reports: Ebola Response Roadmap,” www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports.en/; E. M. Leroy et al., “Multiple Ebola Virus Transmission Events and Rapid Decline of Central African Wildlife,” Science 303, no. 5658 (January 16, 2004): 387–90; Heinz Feldmann and Thomas W. Geisbert, “Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever,” The Lancet 377, no. 9768 (March 5, 2011): 849–62; Leroy et al., “Multiple Ebola Virus Transmission Events and Rapid Decline of Central African Wildlife.”

3. WHO, “Marburg Virus Disease – Uganda,” October 10, 2014, www.who.int/csr/don/10-october-2014-marburg/en/; Feldmann and Geisbert, “Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever.”

4. International Livestock Research Institute, Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots, Zoonoses Project 4, report to U.K. Department for International Development (Nairobi: 2012).

5. Kate E. Jones et al., “Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases,” Nature 451 (February 21, 2008): 990–93; J. Newcomb, T. Harrington, and S. Aldrich, The Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Disease Outbreaks (Cambridge, MA: Bio Economic Research Associates, 2011); Mark S. Smolinski, Margaret A. Hamburg, and Joshua Lederberg, Committee on Emerging Microbial Threats to Health in the 21st Century, Microbial Threats to Health: Emergence, Detection, and Response (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2003).

6. Box 8–1 from U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Lesson 1: Introduction to Epidemiology,” in Principles of Epidemiology in Public Health Practice, Third Edition. An Introduction to Applied Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Self-Study Course SS1978, www.cdc.gov/ophss/csels/dsepd/SS1978/Lesson1/Section10.html.

7. D. T. Haydon et al., “Identifying Reservoirs of Infection: A Conceptual and Practical Challenge,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 8, no. 12 (December 2002): 1468–73; J. R. C. Pulliam et al. and the Henipavirus Ecology Research Group (HERG), “Agricultural Intensification, Priming for Persistence and the Emergence of Nipah Virus: A Lethal Bat-borne Zoonosis, Journal of The Royal Society Interface 9, no. 66 (January 2012): 89–101.

8. John Ford, The Role of Trypanosomiasis in African Ecology (Oxford, U.K.: Clarendon Press, 1971).

9. B. Hjelle and G. E. Glass, “Outbreak of Hantavirus Infection in the Four Corners Region of the United States in the Wake of the 1997–1998 El Nino-southern Oscillation,” The Journal of Infectious Diseases 181, no. 5 (May 2000): 1569–73.

10. Todd R. Callaway et al., “Diet, Escherichia coli O:157:H7, and Cattle: A Review After 10 Years,” Current Issues in Molecular Biology 11, no. 2 (2009): 67–79.

11. David A. Relman, “Microbial Genomics and Infectious Diseases,” New England Journal of Medicine 365 (July 28, 2011): 347–57; A. R. Manges et al., “Comparative Metagenomic Study of Alterations to the Intestinal Micro-biota and Risk of Nosocomial Clostridum difficile-associated Disease, The Journal of Infectious Diseases 202, no. 12 (December 15, 2010): 1877–84; M. Crhanova et al., “Immune Response of Chicken Gut to Natural Colonization by Gut Microflora and to Salmonella enterica Serovar Enteritidis Infection, Infection and Immunity 79, no. 7 (July 2011): 2755–63; Relman, “Microbial Genomics and Infectious Diseases.”

12. Christopher Delgado et al., Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 1999).

13. Richard Coker et al., “Towards a Conceptual Framework to Support One-Health Research for Policy on Emerging Zoonoses, The Lancet Infectious Diseases 11, no. 4 (April 2011): 326–31; Delgado et al., Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution; D. H. Molyneux, “Control of Human Parasitic Disease: Context and Overview, Advances in Parasitology 61 (2006): 1–43; WHO, Interagency Meeting on Planning the Prevention and Control of Neglected Zoonotic Diseases (NZDs), Geneva, Switzerland, July 5–6, 2011.

14. The Writing Committee of the WHO Consultation on Human Influenza A/H5, “Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Infection in Humans,” New England Journal of Medicine 353 (September 29, 2005): 1374–85; William B. Karesh et al., “Wildlife Trade and Global Disease Emergence,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 11, no. 7 (July 2005): 1000–02.

15. Trichinosis from D. G. Newell et al., “Food-borne Diseases – The Challenges of 20 Years Ago Still Persist While New Ones Continue to Emerge,” International Journal of Food Microbiology 139, Supplement 1 (May 30, 2010): S3–15; 50 million from International Livestock Research Institute, Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots; WHO, “WHO Consultation to Develop a Strategy to Estimate the Global Burden of Foodborne Diseases (Geneva: 2006); L. D. Sims et al., “Origin and Evolution of Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza in Asia,” Veterinary Record 157, no. 6 (August 6, 2005): 159–64.

16. Karesh et al., “Wildlife Trade and Global Disease Emergence”; chimpanzees from Beatrice H. Hahn et al., “AIDS as a Zoonosis: Scientific and Public Health Implications, Science 287, no. 5453 (January 28, 2000): 607–14; Y. Guan et al., “Isolation and Characterization of Viruses Related to the SARS Coronavirus from Animals in Southern China,” Science 302, no. 5643 (October 10, 2003): 276–78; P. Rouquet et al., “Wild Animal Mortality Monitoring and Human Ebola Outbreaks, Gabon and Republic of Congo, 2001–2003,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 11, no. 2 (February 2005): 283–90.

17. J. A. Patz et al. and the Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence, “Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence,” Environmental Health Perspectives 112, no. 10 (July 2004): 1092–98; A. Marm Kilpatrick and Sarah E. Randolph, “Drivers, Dynamics, and Control of Emerging Vector-borne Zoonotic Diseases,” The Lancet 380, no. 9857 (December 1, 2012): 1946–55; P. S. Craig and the Echinococcosis Working Group in China, “Epidemiology of Human Alveolar Echinococcosis in China,” Parasitology International 55, Supplement (2006): S221–25.

18. Jones et al., “Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases”; Patz et al. and the Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence, “Unhealthy Landscapes: Policy Recommendations on Land Use Change and Infectious Disease Emergence”; J. F. Walsh, D. H. Molyneux, and M. H. Birley, “Deforestation: Effects on Vectorborne Disease,” Parasitology 106, Supplement S1 (January 1993): S55–75; yellow fever and leishmaniasis from Bruce A. Wilcox and Brett Ellis, “Forests and Emerging Infectious Diseases of Humans,” Unasylva 57, no. 224 (2006): 11–18.

19. Wilcox and Ellis, “Forests and Emerging Infectious Diseases of Humans”; Karesh et al., “Wildlife Trade and Global Disease Emergence”; J. R. Poulsen et al., “Bushmeat Supply and Consumption in a Tropical Logging Concession in Northern Congo,” Conservation Biology 23, no. 6 (December 2009): 1597–608; N. Pramodh, “Limiting the Spread of Communicable Diseases Caused by Human Population Movement,” Journal of Rural and Remote Environmental Health 2, no. 1 (2003): 23–32.

20. Mirko S. Winkler et al., “Assessing Health Impacts in Complex Eco-epidemiological Settings in the Humid Tropics: Advancing Tools and Methods,” Environmental Impact Assessment Review 30, no. 1 (January 2010): 52–61.

21. A. M. Bal and I. M Gould, “Antibiotic Stewardship: Overcoming Implementation Barriers,” Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases 24, no. 4 (August 2011): 357–62; Bonnie M. Marshall and Stuart B. Levy, “Food Animals and Antimicrobials: Impacts on Human Health,” Clinical Microbiology Reviews 24, no. 4 (October 2011): 718–33.

22. Heather K. Allen et al., “Call of the Wild: Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Natural Environments,” Nature Reviews Microbiology 8 (April 2010): 251–59; V M. D’Costa, E. Griffiths, and G. D. Wright, “Expanding the Soil Antibiotic Resistome: Exploring Environmental Diversity,” Current Opinion in Microbiology 10, no. 5 (October 2007): 481–89.

23. R. H. Gustafson and R. E. Bowen, “Antibiotic Use in Animal Agriculture,” Journal of Applied Microbiology 83 (1997): 531–41; Mary D. Barton, “Antibiotic Use in Animal Feed and Its Impact on Human Health,” Nutrition Research Reviews 13 (2000): 279–99.

24. Mary J. Gilchrist et al., “The Potential Role of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in Infectious Disease Epidemics and Antibiotic Resistance,” Environmental Health Perspectives 115, no. 2 (February 2007): 313–16; Marshall and Levy, “Food Animals and Antimicrobials: Impacts on Human Health”; Andreas Voss et al., “Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Pig Farming,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 11, no. 12 (December 2005): 1965–66; Allen et al., “Call of the Wild: Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Natural Environments”; H. Heuer, H. Schmitt, and K. Smalla, “Antibiotic Resistance Gene Spread Due to Manure Application on Agricultural Fields,” Current Opinion in Microbiology 14, no. 3 (June 2011): 236–43; M. F. Davis et al., “An Ecological Perspective on U.S. Industrial Poultry Production: The Role of Anthropogenic Ecosystems on the Emergence of Drug-resistant Bacteria from Agricultural Environments,” Current Opinion in Microbiology 14, no. 3 (June 2011): 244–50; Marshall and Levy, “Food Animals and Antimicrobials: Impacts on Human Health”; Maria Sjölund et al., “Dissemination of Multidrug-resistant Bacteria into the Arctic,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 14, no. 1 (January 2008): 70–72.

25. Stephen S. Morse et al., “Prediction and Prevention of the Next Pandemic Zoonosis,” The Lancet 380, no. 9857 (December 1, 2012): 1956–65.

26. Coker et al., “Towards a Conceptual Framework to Support One-Health Research for Policy on Emerging Zoonoses”; William B. Karesh and Robert A. Cook, “The Human-Animal Link, One World – One Health,” Foreign Affairs 84 (July/August 2005): 38–50; David Molyneux et al., “Zoonoses and Marginalised Infectious Diseases of Poverty: Where Do We Stand?,” Parasites & Vectors 4 (2011): 106.

27. James O. Lloyd-Smith et al., “Epidemic Dynamics at the Human-Animal Interface,” Science 326, no. 5958 (December 4, 2009): 1362–6; Morse et al., “Prediction and Prevention of the Next Pandemic Zoonosis.”

28. Assaf Anyamba et al., “Prediction of a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, no. 3 (January 20, 2009): 955–5; Morse et al., “Prediction and Prevention of the Next Pandemic Zoonosis.”

29. Paul R. Torgerson and Calum N. L. Macpherson, “The Socioeconomic Burden of Parasitic Zoonoses: Global Trends,” Veterinary Parasitology 182, no. 1 (November 24, 2011): 79–95.

30. Jones et al., “Global Trends in Emerging Infectious Diseases”; L. H. Taylor, S. M. Latham, and E. Mark, “Risk Factors for Human Disease Emergence,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 356, no. 1411 (July 29, 2001): 983–89; Simon J. Anthony et al., “A Strategy to Estimate Unknown Viral Diversity in Mammals,” mBio 4, no. 5 (September 3, 2013), e00598–13; World Bank, People, Pathogens and Our Planet. Volume 2, The Economics of One Health (Washington, DC: June 2012).

31. Allen et al., “Call of the Wild: Antibiotic Resistance Genes in Natural Environments”; Gilchrist et al., “The Potential Role of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in Infectious Disease Epidemics and Antibiotic Resistance”; Heuer, Schmitt, and Smalla, “Antibiotic Resistance Gene Spread Due to Manure Application on Agricultural Fields”; Marshall and Levy, “Food Animals and Antimicrobials: Impacts on Human Health”; A. Parisien et al. “Novel Alternatives to Antibiotics: Bacteriophages, Bacterial Cell Wall Hydrolases, and Antimicrobial Peptides,” Journal of Applied Microbiology 104, no. 1 (January 2008): 1–13.

Chapter 9. Migration as a Climate Adaptation Strategy

1. Cecilia Tacoli, Not Only Climate Change: Mobility, Vulnerability and Socio-economic Transformations in Environmentally Fragile Areas in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania, Human Settlements Working Paper 28 (London: International Institute for Environment and Development, 2011); Foresight, Migration and Global Environmental Change: Future Challenges and Opportunities, final project report (London: Government Office for Science, 2011).

2. WJ. McG. Tegart, G. W. Sheldon, and D. C. Griffiths, eds., Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment. Report of Working Group II to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service, 1990); Jon Barnett and Michael Webber, Accommodating Migration to Promote Adaptation to Climate Change (Washington, DC: World Bank: 2010).

3. Hundreds of millions from Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review (Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2007); German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), Climate Change as a Security Risk (London: Earthscan, 2008); Global Humanitarian Forum, The Anatomy of A Silent Crisis (Geneva: 2009); adaptation strategy from David Rain, Eaters of the Dry Season: Circular Labor Migration in the West African Sahel (New York: Westview Press, 1999), and from Kees van der Geest, Migration and Natural Resources Scarcity in Ghana, case study report for the EACH-FOR project (Brussels: EACH-FOR, 2009).

4. Norman Myers, “Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon of the 21st Century,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 357, no. 1420 (April 29, 2002): 609–13; Molly Conisbee and Andrew Simms, Environmental Refugees. The Case for Recognition (London: New Economics Foundation, 2003); Nicholas Stern, The Global Deal. Climate Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity (New York: Public Affairs, 2009); migration as a resource from Rain, Eaters of the Dry Season, and from Richard Black et al., “Climate Change: Migration as Adaptation,” Nature 478 (October 27, 2011): 447–49.

5. Carol Farbotko, “Wishful Sinking: Disappearing Islands, Climate Refugees and Cosmopolitan Experimentation,” Asia Pacific Viewpoint 51, no. 1 (April 2010): 47–60; Jon Barnett and John Campbell, Climate Change and Small Island States. Power, Knowledge and the South Pacific (London: Earthscan, 2010).

6. Robert J. Nicholls et al., “Sea-level Rise and Its Possible Impacts Given a ‘Beyond 4°C World’ in the Twenty-first Century,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 369, no. 1934 (January 13, 2011): 161–81.

7. Postcards from the Future, “Buckingham Palace Shanty,” October 4, 2010, www.london-futures.com/2010/10/04/buckingham-palace-shanty/.

8. WBGU, Climate Change as a Security Risk; European Commission and the Secretary-General/High Representative, Climate Change and International Security (Brussels: Council of the European Union, 2008).

9. Richard Black, Environmental Refugees: Myth or Reality? New Issues in Refugee Research, Working Paper No. 34 (Geneva: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 2001); Camillo Boano et al., Environmentally Displaced People: Understanding the Linkages Between Environmental Change, Livelihoods and Forced Migration (Oxford, U.K.: Refugee Studies Centre, 2007).

10. Stefan Rahmstorf, “A New View on Sea Level Rise,” Nature Reports Climate Change 4 (2010): 44–45.

11. Gunvor Jónsson, The Environmental Factor in Migration Dynamics – A Review of African Case Studies, Working Papers No. 21 (Oxford, U.K.: International Migration Institute, 2010); Black, Environmental Refugees: Myth or Reality?; van der Geest, Migration and Natural Resources Scarcity in Ghana.

12. Box 9–1 from the following sources: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Global Estimates 2014. People Displaced by Disasters (Geneva: September 2014), 8, 15, 36–38; Figure 9–1 from idem; short-distance, temporary from Frank Laczko and Christine Aghazarm, eds., Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence (Geneva: International Organization for Migration, 2009), 23; Hurricane Katrina from Fabrice Renaud et al., Adapt or Flee. How to Face Environmental Migration? InterSecTions No. 5 (Bonn: United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, May 2007), 22.

13. François Gemenne, “What’s in a Name: Social Vulnerabilities and the Refugee Controversy in the Wake of Hurricane Katrina,” in Jill Jäger and Tamer Afifi, Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability (Berlin: Springer, 2010); Barnett and Webber, Accommodating Migration to Promote Adaptation to Climate Change.

14. Jill Jäger et al., EACH-FOR Synthesis Report (Budapest: EACH-FOR, 2009).

15. R. McLeman and B. Smit, “Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change,” Climatic Change 76, no. 1-2 (May 2006): 31–53; Matthew Walsham, Assessing the Evidence: Environment, Climate Change and Migration in Bangladesh (Geneva: International Organization for Migration, 2010); Jeni D. Klugman, Human Development Report 2009. Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development (New York: United Nations Development Programme, 2009).

16. Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty, Making Migration Work for Development (Brighton, U.K.: University of Sussex, 2009); McLeman and Smit, “Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change.”

17. François Gemenne, “Climate-induced Population Displacements in a 4°C+ World,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 369, no. 1934 (2011): 182–95.

18. Graeme Hugo, “Environmental Concerns and International Migration,” International Migration Review 30, no. 1 (Spring 1996): 105–31.

19. Gemenne, “Climate-induced Population Displacements in a 4°C+ World.”

Chapter 10. Childhood’s End

1. Albert O. Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1970).

2. Edward O. Wilson, The Meaning of Human Existence (New York: Liveright, 2014), 120.

3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers (Cambridge, U.K. and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 1–4.

4. Lenore Taylor and Tania Branigan, “US and China Strike Deal on Carbon Cuts in Push for Global Climate Change Pact,” The Guardian (U.K.), November 12, 2014; Harald Winkler, “How Long Can You Go? Climate Talks in Lima,” University of Cape Town Energy Research Centre blog, December 15, 2014, www.ercblogs.co.za/2014.

5. See Herman E. Daly, Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development (Boston: Beacon Press, 1996), 6.

6. “Five Questions for Gus Speth on His Environmental Evolution,” Yale Environment 360, December 2, 2014, http://e360.yale.edu.

7. Joan Gussow and Katherine Clancy, “Dietary Guidelines for Sustainability,” Journal of Nutrition Education 18, no. 1 (February 1986): 1; Dan Charles, “Congress to Nutritionists: Don’t Talk About the Environment,” National Public Radio blog, December 15, 2014, www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/.

8. A more detailed discussion of panarchy theory can be found in Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006), 225–234.

9. Herman E. Daly, Steady-State Economics, 2nd edition (Washington, DC: Island Press, 1991), 45.

10. Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2014: Governing for Sustainability (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2014), 249.

11. Tom Sanzillo et al., Material Risks: How Public Accountability Is Slowing Tar Sands Development (Washington, DC: Oil Change International and Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis, October 2014).

12. See Tina Nabatchi et al., Democracy in Motion: Evaluating the Practice and Impact of Deliberative Civic Engagement (Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press, 2012); James Fishkin, “Consulting the Public Thoughtfully: Prospects for Deliberative Democracy,” in David Kahane et al., eds., Deliberative Democracy in Practice (Vancouver, BC: UBC Press, 2010), 194.

13. Matt Leighninger, “The Next Form of Democracy?” the 2012 Civic Engagement and Democracy Lecture, delivered at the Institute for Policy and Civic Engagement, University of Illinois–Chicago, Chicago, IL, April 4, 2012.

14. Ibid.

15. See Richard Wilkonson and Kate Pickett, The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2009).

16. Box 10–1 from the following sources: production for surplus from John Gowdy, “Governance, Sustainability, and Evolution,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2014: Governing for Sustainability, 31–40; for a striking exception to the rule of elites over masses, the Swiss canton of Graubünden, see Benjamin Barber, The Death of Communal Liberty: A History of Freedom in a Swiss Mountain Canton (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1974); Ronald Wright, A Short History of Progress (New York: Carroll & Graf, 2005), 51.