PREFACE TO THE 2007 EDITION
1. Tony Blair, 27 April 2004. Speech at the launch of the Climate Group. http://www.pm.gov.uk/output/Page5716.asp
2. Energy Saving Trust, 28 March 2007. Green Barometer. http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/aboutest/news/pressreleases/index.cfm?mode=view&pressid=557
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, February 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers, p. 8. http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
4. The average speed over the past 3,000 years is given here: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Chapter 11 – Changes in Sea Level, Executive Summary. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcctar/wg1/409.htm
5. The current speed is given here: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, February 2007, ibid. Table SPM-1, p. 7.
6. Sir Nicholas Stern, October 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_reviewreport.cfm
7. ibid, Part 3, p. 300 (All page numbers refer to the electronic version).
8. ibid, Part 2, p. 113.
9. ibid, Part 3, Figure 13.4, p. 294.
10. ibid, Executive Summary, page vii.
11. ibid, Part 2, Table 3.1, p. 57.
12. ibid, Executive Summary, p. iii.
13. ibid, Part 3, p. 295.
14. ibid, Executive Summary, p. vi.
15. ibid, Part 2, p. 99, footnote 31.
16. ibid, Part 3, p. 201.
17. ibid, Part 3, p. 193.
18. ibid, Part 1, p. 28.
19. ibid, Part 1, p. 30.
20. Sir Rod Eddington, December 2006. ‘The Eddington Transport Study’. Main report: Transport’s role in sustaining the UK’s productivity and competitiveness. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/eddington_transport_study/eddington_main_rep_ort.cfm
21. HM Government, March 2007. Draft Climate Change Bill. http://www.officialdocuments.gov.uk/document/cm70/7040/7040.pdf
22. Mark Maslin et al, 5 March 2007. ‘UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Are we on target?’ University College London Environment Institute. http://www.ucl.ac.uk/environment-institute/pdfs/UCLEI-report.pdf
23. Department for Transport, 14 December 2006. ‘The Future of Air Transport’ Progress Report. http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_aviation/documents/pdf/dft_aviation_pdf_613840.pdf
24. Department for Transport, July 2004. ‘The Future of Transport’ White Paper.
25. HM Treasury, 6 December 2006. Pre-Budget Report 2006, Chapter 7. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/571/CF/pbr06chapter7.pdf
26. Department for Transport, December 2003. White Paper, ‘The Future of Air Transport,’ p150. http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dftaviation/documents/page/dft_aviation031516.pdf
27. ibid, p.154.
28. Department for Transport, 30 June 2003. ‘Assessing the Impact of Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty: Main Findings.’ http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/roads/environment/research/consumerbehaviour/assessingtheimpactofgraduate3817?page=3
29. HM Treasury, March 2007. Budget 2007, Chapter 7, p. 185.
30. Ruth Kelly, 13 December 2006. ‘Shaping a low carbon future – our environmental vision.’ http://www.communities.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1505202
31. Association for the Conservation of Energy, 21 December 2006. ‘A step backward for energy efficiency.’
32. Association for the Conservation of Energy, 16 February 2007. Planning Bill Gets Talked Out by Government Minister. Press release. http://www.ukace.org/index.htm#newstag
33. James L. Connaughton and John H. Marburger III, 7 February 2007. Open Letter on the President’s Position on Climate Change, The White House. http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/or/80451.htm
34. Senator Larry Craig, quoted by J. R. Pegg, 30 January 2007. ‘US Congress Warming to Climate Debate.’ Environment News Service. http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2007/2007–01–30–10.asp
35. US State Department, 2006. U.S. Global Climate Change Policy. http://www.state.gov/g/oes/climate/
36. Bank Sarasin, July 2006. Sustainability Report: ‘Biofuels – transporting us to a fossil-free future?’, p. 14.
37. The US Energy Information Administration gives US gasoline consumption for October 2006 (the latest available date) at 287,857,000 barrels. If this month is typical, annual consumption amounts to 3.45 billion barrels, or 145 billion gallons. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbbl_m.htm In the state of the union address, Bush proposed a mandatory annual target of 35 billion gallons.
38. Food and Agriculture Organization, December 2006. Food Outlook 2. http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/j8126e/e01a.htm
39. US Government, 14 September 2006. U.S. Government Review of the Second Order Draft of WGIII Contribution ‘Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change’. The leaked memo can be read at: http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2007/01/26/USGReview_pp6_7.pdf
INTRODUCTION:
THE FAILURE OF GOOD INTENTIONS
1. Christopher Marlowe, Doctor Faustus (W. W. Norton & Co, New York, 2005 [1604]), p. 20.
2. George Monbiot, ‘Climate Change: A Crisis of Collective Denial?’, the Professor David Hall Lecture, given to the Environmental Law Foundation at the Law Society, 4 May 2005. A transcript is available at http://www.elflaw.org/files/David%20Hall%20Lecture%202005%20transcript.doc
3. Ian McEwan, Saturday (Jonathan Cape, London, 2005), pp. 149–50.
4. Colin Forrest, ‘The Cutting Edge: Climate Science to April 2005’: http://www.climate-crisis.net/downloads/THE_CUTTING_EDGE_CLIMATE_SCIENCE_TO_APRIL_05.pdf
5. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003, 2005, Table H.1cco22 (World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980–2003): http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls
6. ibid.
7. Martha Buckley, ‘Bling Bling Merrily on High’, BBC News Online, 23 December 2004: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4116563.stm
8. Craig McLean, ‘The Importance of Being Earnest’, Guardian, 28 May 2005.
9. ibid.
10. Bob Flowerdew, Organic Bible (Kyle Cathie Ltd, London, 2003), p. 17.
11. ibid., p. 178.
12. Bill Dunster Architects, ‘Zedupgrade: An Introduction to Refurbishment Systems for Existing Homes’, 19 March 2005: http://www.zedfactory.com/ZEDupgrade_A4_Brochure.pdf
13. The Windsave 1000 system: http://www.windsave.com/WS1000.htm
14. Derek Taylor, ‘Potential Outputs from 1–2m Diameter Wind Turbines’, Building for a Future, winter 2005/6, special wind-power feature. This is extracted from the graph, and describes output at an average annual windspeed of 4 metres per second. The previous article in the same edition, by Nick Martin, explains that, in built-up areas, ‘Very few installations are likely to experience more than the equivalent of 4 metres per second average windspeed.’
15. Nick Martin, ‘Can We Harvest Useful Wind Energy from the Roofs of Our Buildings?’Building for a Future, winter 2005/6, special wind-power feature, Table 2.
16. Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.), Energy Systems and Sustainability (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003), Table 3.1, p. 104.
17. ibid., p. 104.
1. Doctor Faustus, p. 25.
2. Quoted by Stuart Atkins, ‘Survey of the Faust Theme’, in Cyrus Hamlin (ed.), Faust: A Norton Critical Edition (W. W. Norton & Co, New York, 2001), p. 573.
3. ibid.
4. ibid., p. 574.
5. Doctor Faustus, Prologue, p. 7.
6. ibid., Act 1, Scene 1, p. 9.
7. ibid., Act 1, Scene 1, p. 10.
8. ibid., Act 1, Scene 3, p. 17.
9. ibid., Act 2, Scene 1, p. 25.
10. anon., 1589?The History of the Damnable Life and Deserved Death of Doctor John Faustus (published by Thomas Orwin in 1592), Chapter 2. Quoted in Doctor Faustus, p. 185.
11. J. U. Nef, The Rise of the British Coal Industry (Routledge, London, 1932). Cited by Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.), Energy Systems and Sustainability (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003), p. 160.
12. US Energy Information Administration, ‘Country Analysis Brief: United Kingdom’, April 2005: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html
13. ibid.
14. Urs Siegenthaler et al., ‘Stable Carbon Cycle–Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene’, Science, Vol. 310 (25 November 2005), pp. 1313–17.
15. Renato Spahni et al., ‘Atmospheric Methane and Nitrous Oxide of the Late Pleistocene from Antarctic Ice Cores’, Science, Vol. 310 (25 November 2005), pp. 1317–21.
16. Siegenthaler et al., op. cit.
17. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes that ‘the rate of increase over the past century is unprecedented, at least during the past 20,000 years.’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Working Group I – The Scientific Basis, Observed Changes in Globally Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Radiative Forcing: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcctar/wg1/016.htm
18. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Methane Emissions by Source: 1970–2003’, 23 January 2006: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/kf/gakf08.htm
19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers to Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC, London, 2001), p. 4.
20. World Meteorological Organization, ‘Extreme Weather Events Might Increase’ (press release), 2 July 2003: http://www.wmo.ch/web/Press/Press695.doc
21. Tim P. Barnet et al., ‘Penetration of Human-induced Warming into the World’s Oceans’, Science, Vol. 309 (8 July 2005), pp. 284–7.
22. Tim Barnet, quoted in Fred Pearce, ‘Climate Evidence Finds Us Guilty as Charged’, New Scientist, 11 June 2005.
23. Naomi Oreskes, ‘The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change’, Science, Vol. 306 (3 December 2004), p. 1686. The original essay gave the search term as ‘climate change’, but this was corrected to ‘global climate change’ in a subsequent edition.
24. ibid.
25. The Royal Society et al., ‘The Science of Climate Change’, Science, Vol. 292 (18 May 2001), p. 1261.
26. National Academy of Science, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 2001): http://fermat.nap.edu/html/climatechange/
27. American Meteorological Society, ‘Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences’ (approved by AMS Council, 9 February 2003), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, April 2003, pp. 508–15.
28. American Geophysical Union Council, ‘AGU Position Statement on Human Impacts on Climate’, Eos, Vol. 84 (December 2003), p. 574.
29. American Association for the Advancement of Science, ‘AAAS Atlas of Population and Environment: Climate Change’, 2000: http://www.ourplanet.com/aaas/pages/atmos02.html
30. Roy W. Spencer and John R. Christy, ‘Precision and Radiosonde Validation of Satellite Gridpoint Temperature Anomalies. Part II: a Tropospheric Retrieval and Trends During 1979–90’, Journal of Climate, Vol. 5 (1992), pp. 858–66.
31. Carl A. Mears and Frank J. Wentz, ‘The Effect of Diurnal Correction on Satellite-Derived Lower Tropospheric Temperature’, Science, Vol. 309 (2 September 2005), pp. 1548–51.
32. B.D. Santer et al., ‘Amplification of Surface Temperature Trends and Variability in the Tropical Atmosphere’, Science, Vol. 309 (2 Septermber 2005), pp. 1548–51.
33. Steven J. Sherwood, John R. Lanzante and Cathryn L. Meyer, ‘Radiosonde Daytime Biases and Late Twentieth-Century Warming’, Science, Vol. 309 (2 September 2005), pp. 1556–9.
34. Steven J. Sherwood, quoted by Zeeya Merali, ‘Sceptics Forced into Climate Climb-down’, New Scientist, 20 August 2005.
35. National Snow and Ice Data Centre, ‘Sea Ice Decline Intensifies’, press release, 28 September 2005: http://nsidc.org/news/press/20050928_trendscontinue.html
36. The collapse is described by the scientists who saw it in an article by John Vidal, ‘Antarctica Sends 500 Million Billion Tonne Warning of the Effects of Global Warming’, Guardian, 20 March 2006.
37. Andrew Shepherd, Duncan Wingham, Tony Payne, Pedro Skvarca, ‘Larsen Ice Shelf Has Progressively Thinned’, Science, Vol. 302 (31 October 2003), pp. 856–8.
38. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, op. cit. (note 19, above), p. 12.
39. Meteorological Office, International Symposium on the Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases: Tables of Impacts (Hadley Centre, Exeter, 2005), Table 3 (Major Impacts of Climate Change on the Earth System): http://www.stabilisation2005.com/impacts/impacts_earth_system.pdf
40. World Glacier Monitoring Service, Glacier Mass Balance Data 2004, 2006: http://www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/mbb/mb04/sum04.html
41. Fred Pearce, ‘Climate Warning as Siberia Melts’, New Scientist, 11 August 2005.
42. Erica Goldman, ‘Even in the High Arctic, Nothing is Permanent’, Science, Vol. 297 (30 August 2002), pp. 1493–4.
43. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 39, above).
44. World Health Organization, Climate Change, 2003: http://www.who.int/heli/risks/climate/climatechange/en/index.html
45. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers, p. 13. http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
46. Daniel A. Stainforth et al., ‘Uncertainty in Predictions of the Climate Response to Rising Levels of Greenhouse Gases’, Nature, Vol. 433 (27 January 2005), pp. 403–6.
47. Martin Parry et al., ‘Millions at Risk: Defining Critical Climate Change Threats and Targets’, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 11 (2001), pp. 181–3.
48. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 39, above), Table 2a (Impacts on Human Systems Due to Temperature Rise, Precipitation Change and Increases in Extreme Events): http://www.stabilisation2005.com/impacts/impacts_human.pdf
49. H. Schroder et al., Assessment of Renewable Ground and Surface Water Resources and the Impact of Economic Activity on Runoff in the Basin of the Ili River, Republic of Kazakhstan (Kazakh Academy of Sciences, Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2002); and P. Wagnon, et al., 1999, ‘Energy Balance and Runoff Seasonality of a Bolivian Glacier’, Global and Planetary Change, 22(1–4) (1999), pp. 49–58; both cited in World Wildlife Fund, ‘Going, Going, Gone: Climate Change and Global Glacier Decline’, 2003: http://assets.panda.org/downloads/glacierspaper.pdf
50. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability : http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcctar/wg2/005.htm
51. T. N. Palmer and J. Raisanen, ‘Quantifying the Risk of Extreme Seasonal Precipitation Events in a Changing Climate’, Nature, Vol. 415 (31 January 2002), pp. 512–14.
52. Günther Fischer, Mahendra Shah, Harrij van Velthuizen, and Freddy O. Nachtergaele, Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Food and Agriculture Organisation, July 2001): http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/SAEZ/pdf/gaez2002.pdf
53. Julia M. Slingo, Andrew J. Challinor, Brian J. Hoskins and Timothy R. Wheeler, ‘Introduction: Food Crops in a Changing Climate’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Vol. 360 (29 November 2005), pp. 1983–9.
54. Shaobing Peng et al., ‘Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 101 (28 June 2004), pp. 9971–5.
55. Günther Fischer et al., op. cit. (note 52, above).
56. Stephen P. Long, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Andrew D. B. Leakey and Patrick B. Morgan, ‘Global Food Insecurity’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Vol. 360 (29 November 2005), pp. 2011–20.
57. ibid.
58. ibid.
59. Martin Parry, Cynthia Rosenzweig and Matthew Livermore, ‘Climate Change, Global Food Supply and Risk of Hunger’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Vol. 360 (29 November 2005), pp. 2125–38.
60. Julia M. Slingo et al., op. cit. (note 53, above).
61. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 48, above).
62. Jonathan A. Patz, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Tracey Holloway and Jonathan A. Foley, ‘Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health’, Nature, Vol. 438 (17 November 2005), pp. 310–17.
63. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, op. cit. (note 50, above).
64. Jonathan A. Patz et al., op. cit. (note 62, above).
65. Conference of the International Association of Hydrogeologists, reported by Fred Pearce, ‘Cities May Be Abandoned as Salt Water Invades’, New Scientist, 16 April 2005.
66. ibid.
67. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, op. cit. (note 50, above).
68. Professor Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, gave this warning in his presentation to the American Association for the Advancement of Science on 19 February 2006, West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Waking the Sleeping Giant?: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006–02/bas-wai021406.php
69. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Working Group I – The Scientific Basis, Observed Changes in Climate Variability and Extreme Weather and Climate Events: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcctar/wg1/014.htm
70. P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry and H. R. Chang, ‘Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment’, Science, Vol. 309 (16 September 2005), pp. 1844–6.
71. Kerry Emanuel, ‘Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones Over the Past 30 Years’, Nature, Vol. 436 (4 August 2005), pp. 686–8.
72. P. J. Webster et al., op. cit. (note 70, above).
73. Cited by the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs on 6 July 2005, The Economics of Climate Change, Vol. I: Report (Stationery Office, London, 2005), p. 24.
74. Peter A. Stott, D. A. Stone and M. R. Allen, ‘Human Contribution to the European Heatwave of 2003’, Nature, Vol. 432 (2 December 2004), pp. 610–14.
75. ibid.
76. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 (note 50, above).
77. Chris D. Thomas et al., ‘Extinction Risk from Climate Change’, Nature, Vol. 427 (8 January 2004), pp. 145–8.
78. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 39, above), Table 1a (Impacts of Level of Temperature Change on Ecosystems): http://www.stabilisation2005.com/impacts/impactsecosystems.pdf
79. ibid.
80. The Royal Society, ‘Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Policy Document 12/05 (June 2005): http://www.scar.org/articles/OceanAcidification(1).pdf
81. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 78, above).
82. Sharon A. Cowling et al., ‘Contrasting Simulated Past and Future Responses of the Amazonian Forest to Atmospheric Change’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Vol. 359 (29 March 2004), pp. 539–47.
83. ibid.
84. ibid.
85. P. M. Cox, C. Hunting ford, and C. D. Jones, ‘Conditions for Sink-to-Source Transitions and Runaway Feedbacks from the Land Carbon-Cycle’, In H. J. Schellnhuber et al. (eds.), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2006), pp. 155–61.
86. Chris D. Jones et al., ‘Strong Carbon Cycle Feedbacks in a Climate Model with Interactive CO2 and Sulphate Aerosols’, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30 (9 May 2003), p. 1479.
87. Geoff Jenkins, ‘A Question of Probability: Latest Research Identifies New Factors in Climate Change’, New Economy (Institute for Public Policy Research, London), Vol. 10 (March 2003), pp. 144–9.
88. A. Angert et al., ‘Drier Summers Cancel Out the CO2 Uptake Enhancement Induced by Warmer Springs’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102 (2 August 2005), pp. 10823–7.
89. Pat H. Bellamy et al., ‘Carbon Losses from All Soils Across England and Wales 1978–2003’, Nature, Vol. 437 (8 September 2005), pp. 245–8.
90. ibid.
91. Geoff Jenkins, op. cit. (note 87, above).
92. Fred Pearce, ‘Climate Warningas Siberia Melts’, New Scientist, 11 August 2005.
93. House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs, op. cit. (note 73, above), p. 11.
94. For example, Environment Canada, ‘The Science of Climate Change’: http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/education/scienceofclimatechange/understanding/FAQ/sections/2_e.html
95. National Center for Atmospheric Research, ‘Most of Arctic’s Near-Surface Permafrost May Thaw by 2100’ (19 December 2005): http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2005/permafrost.shtml
96. For example, Andrew J. Weaver and Claude Hillaire-Marcel, ‘Global Warming and the Next Ice Age’, Science, Vol. 304 (16 April 2004), pp. 400–402.
97. House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs, op. cit. (note 73, above),, p. 26.
98. Detlef Quadfasel, ‘The Atlantic Heat Conveyor Slows’, Nature, Vol. 438 (1 December 2005), pp. 565–6.
99. Harry L. Bryden, Hannah R. Longworth and Stuart A. Cunningham, ‘Slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 25° N’, Nature, Vol. 438 (1 December 2005), pp 655–7.
100. Detlef Quadfasel, op. cit. (note 98, above).
101. ibid.
102. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, op. cit. (note 19, above): http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcctar/vol4/english/038.htm
103. Cited by Fred Pearce, ‘Heat Will Soar as Haze Fades’, New Scientist, 7 June 2003.
104. Daniel A. Stainforth et al., op. cit. (note 46, above).
105. ibid.
106. Michael J. Benton, When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time (Thames and Hudson, London, 2003).
107. ibid.
108. ibid.
109. Jeffrey T. Kiehl and Christine A. Shields, ‘Climate Simulation of the Latest Permian: Implications for Mass Extinction’, Geology, Vol. 33 (September 2005), pp. 757–60.
110. Michael J. Benton, op. cit. (note 106, above).
111. Jeffrey T. Kiehl and Christine A. Shields, op. cit. (note 109, above).
112. ibid.
113. For example, James Lovelock, ‘The Earth is About to Catch a Morbid Fever that May Last as Long as 100,000 years’, Independent, 16 January 2006.
114. Bill Hare, ‘Relationship Between Increases in Global Mean Temperature and Impacts on Ecosystems, Food Production, Water and Socio-Economic Systems’, in Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (ed.), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2006), pp. 191–9: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/internat/pdf/avoid-dangercc.pdf
115. Hartmut Grassl et al., Climate Protection Strategies for the 21st Century: Kyoto and Beyond, WBGU Special Report (WBGU (German Advisory Council on Global Change), Berlin, 2003), p. 11: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_engl.pdf
116. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 48, above).
117. ibid.
118. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 78, above).
119. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 48, above).
120. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 78, above).
121. Meteorological Office, op. cit. (note 39, above).
122. Colin Forrest extracts this date from the figures given in the paper by Chris D. Jones et al. (note 86, above). Colin Forrest, ‘The Cutting Edge: Climate Science to April 2005’: http://www.climate-crisis.net/downloads/THE_CUTTING_EDGE_CLIMATE_SCIENCE_TO_APRIL_05.pdf
123. Bill Hare and Malte Meinshausen, How Much Warming Are We Committed To and How Much Can Be Avoided?, PIK report 93 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 2004), Figure 7, page 24: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/publications/pik_reports/reports/pr.93/pr93.pdf
124. Colin Forrest, op. cit. (note 122, above).
125. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003, 2005, Table h.1cco2 (World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980–2003): http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls
126. The figures (taken from Energy Information Administration, op. cit. (note 125, above) work out as follows:
country |
carbon dioxide emissions per capita, 2003 (tonnes) |
carbon emissions per capita (CO2 3.667) (tonnes) |
percentage cut required |
France |
6.8 |
1.9 |
83 |
UK |
9.5 |
2.6 |
87 |
Germany |
10.2 |
2.8 |
88 |
Canada |
19.1 |
5.2 |
94 |
Australia |
19.1 |
5.2 |
94 |
US |
20.0 |
5.5 |
94 |
127. Bill Hare and Malte Meinshausen, op. cit. (note 123, above), p. 24.
128. Paul Baer and Tom Athanasiou, ‘Honesty About Dangerous Climate Change’, 2005: http://www.ecoequity.org/ceo/ceo_82.htm
129. The Royal Society, ‘A Guide to Facts and Fictions about Climate Change’, 2005: http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630
130. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Faust (1770–1830), published in translation by Cyrus Hamlin (ed.), Faust, Norton Critical Edition (W. W. Norton and Co., New York, 2001), Part 1, Study, line 1695.
131. ibid., Part 1, Study, lines 1765–8.
132. ibid., Part II, Act V, line 11563.
2 THE DENIAL INDUSTRY
1. Faust, lines 11693–6.
2. Dr Andrew Dlugolecki, formerly director of general insurance development at CGNU, at the ‘Decarbonising the UK’ conference, 21 September 2005, Church House, Westminster.
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Table 11–9: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/446.htm
4. Alan Dupont and Graeme Pearman, ‘Heating up the Planet: Climate Change and Security’ (Paper 12, The Lowy Institute, 13 June 2006), pp. 45–6: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=391
5. anon., ‘Washed Away’, New Scientist, 25 June 2005.
6. James Verdin, Chris Funk, Gabriel Senay and Richard Choularton, ‘Climate Science and Famine Early Warning’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Vol. 360 (29 November 2005), pp. 2155–68.
7. ibid.
8. See also Günther Fischer, Mahendra Shah, Harrij van Velthuizen and Freddy O. Nachtergaele, July 2001. ‘Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century’, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Food and Agriculture Organisation, July 2001: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/SAEZ/pdf/gaez2002.pdf
9. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003, 2005, Table H.1cco2 (World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980–2003): http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls
10. The Economist Pocket World in Figures 2005 (Profile Books Ltd, London, 2004), p. 28.
11. Tony Blair, speech on climate change, 14 September 2004: http://www.number10.gov.uk/output/Page6333.asp
12. Peter Hitchens, ‘Global Warming? It’s Hot Air and Hypocrisy’, Mail on Sunday, 29 July 2001.
13. Melanie Phillips, ‘Does This Prove that Global Warming’s All Hot Air?’, Daily Mail, 13 January 2006.
14. Peter Hitchens, op. cit. (note 12, above).
15. Melanie Phillips, speaking on The Moral Maze, BBC Radio 4, 17 February 2005.
16. David Bellamy, ‘Global Warming? What a Load of Poppycock!’ Daily Mail, 9 July 2004.
17. David Bellamy, letter to New Scientist, 16 April 2005.
18. Conversation with Dr Frank Paul of the World Glacier Monitoring Service, 5 May 2005.
19. He cited Frank Paul et al., ‘Rapid Disintegration of Alpine Glaciers Observed with Satellite Data’, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31 (12 November 2004), L21402; and WGMS, ‘Fluctuations of Glaciers 1990–1995 Vol. VII’, 1988: http://www.wgms.ch/fog/fog7.pdf. A fuller list of recent publications on glacial movements and mass balance is available at http://www.wgms.ch/literature.html
20. E-mail from David Bellamy, 5 May 2005.
21. http://www.iceagenow.com/Growing_Glaciers.htm
22. Roger Boyes, ‘Blame the Jews’, The Times, 7 November 2003.
23. David Bamford, ‘Turkish Officials Carpeted’, Guardian, 30 July 1987.
24. Michael White, ‘Will the Democrats Wear this Whig?’ Guardian, 3 May 1986.
25. Francis Wheen, ‘Branded: Lord Rees-Mogg, International Terrorist’, Guardian, 21 August 1996.
26. Extract from Chip Berlet and Matthew N. Lyons, Right-Wing Populism in America: Too Close for Comfort (Guilford Press, New York, 2000), republished at http://www.publiceye.org/larouche/synthesis.html
27. This is the constant theme of 21st Century Science and Technology.
28. Terry Kirby, ‘The Cult and the Candidate’, Independent, 21 July 2004.
29. Chip Bertlet, 20 December 1990: http://www.skepticfiles.org/socialis/woo_left.htm
30. http://www.cei.org/gencon/014,02867.cfm, viewed 23 May 2006.
31. http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA218.html, viewed 23 May 2006.
32. http://www.junkscience.com/nov98/moore.htm, viewed 23 May 2006.
33. John K. Carlisle (a director of the National Center for Public Policy Research), letter to the Washington Post, 17 November 1998.
34. http://www.sepp.org/controv/glaciers.html, viewed 7 May 2005.
35. George Monbiot, ‘Junk Science’, Guardian, 10 May 2005.
36. E-mail from Ron Partridge to S. Fred Singer, 11 May 2005.
37. E-mail from S. Fred Singer to Ron Partridge, 11 May 2005.
38. Second e-mail from Ron Partridge to S. Fred Singer, 11 May 2005.
39. Further e-mail from S. Fred Singer, forwarded to me by Ron Partridge, 28 May 2005.
40. http://www.sepp.org/pressrel/goreglac.html, viewed 23 May 2006.
41. David Teather, ‘Washington Focuses on Oil Profits’, Guardian, 7 November 2005.
42. Frank Luntz, ‘The Environment: A Cleaner, Safer, Healthier America’, 2002. The leaked memo can be seen here: http://www.ewg.org/briefings/luntzmemo/pdf/LuntzResearch_environment.pdf
43. www.exxonsecrets.org
44. Quoted by Zeeya Merali, ‘Sceptics Forced into Climate Climbdown’, New Scientist, 20 August 2005.
45. The petition can be read here: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p37.htm
46. Letter from Frederick Seitz, ‘Research Review of Global Warming Evidence’, 1998: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p41.htm
47. PRWatch, ‘Case Study: The Oregon Petition”, no date: http://www.prwatch.org/improp/oism.html
48. http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=36
49. PRWatch, op. cit. (note 47, above).
50. Arthur B. Robinson, Sallie L. Baliunas, Willie Soon and Zachary W. Robinson, ‘Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine and the George C. Marshall Institute, 1998: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
51. See the entries for Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon at www.exxonsecrets.org
52. John H. Cushman Jr, ‘Industrial Group Plans to Battle Climate Treaty’, New York Times, 26 April 1998.
53. Arthur B. Robinson et al., op. cit. (note 50, above).
54. National Academy of Sciences, ‘Statement by the Council of the National Academy of Sciences Regarding Global Change Petition’, 20 April 1998: http://www4.nationalacademies.org/news.nsf/isbn/s04201998?OpenDocument
55. Environmental Protection Agency, December 1992, Respiratory Health Effects Of Passive Smoking: Lung Cancer And Other Disorders, EPA/600/6–90/006F (US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, December 1992), p. 21.
56. Ellen Merlo, memo to William I. Campbell, 17 February 1993, Bates no. 2021183916–2021183925, p. 1: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=qdf02a00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
57. ibid., p. 5.
58. ibid., pp. 5–6.
59. ibid., p. 6.
60. ibid., p. 7.
61. ibid., p. 9.
62. Ted Lattanzio, note for Tina Walls, 20 May 1993, Bates no. 2021178204: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=huj46e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
63. Margery Kraus, letter to Vic Han, Director of Communications, Philip Morris USA, 23 September 1993, Bates no. 2024233698–2024233702, p. 2: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=dqa35e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
64. Tom Hockaday and Neal Cohen, memo to Matt Winokur, Director of Regulatory Affairs, Philip Morris, ‘Thoughts on TASSC Europe’, 25 March 1994, Bates no. 2024233595–2024233602, pp. 2–3: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=pqa35e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
65. Margery Kraus, op. cit. (note 63, above).
66. APCO Associates, ‘Proposed Plan for the Public Launching of TASSC’, 30 September 1993, Bates no. 2024233709–2024233717: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=eqa35e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
67. APCO Associates, ‘Revised Plan for the Public Launching of TASSC’, 15 October 1993, Bates no. 2045930493–2045930502: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=aly03e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
68. APCO Associates, op. cit. (note 66, above), p. 3
69. ibid.
70. For the authorship of these answers, see Jack Leonzi, note for Ellen Merlo, 15 November 1993, Bates no. 2024233664: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=jqa35e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
71. ‘Draft Q and A for PM USA and TASSC’, no date, Bates no. 2065556600: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=ynk73c00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
72. ibid.
73. See David Michaels, ‘Scientific Evidence and Public Policy’, American Journal of Public Health (Supplement on Scientific Evidence and Public Policy), Vol. 95 (2005), pp. S5–S7.
74. anon., ‘Smoking and Health Proposal’ (Brown & Williamson), no date, Bates no. 690010951–690010959, p. 4: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=rgy93f00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
75. http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=6
76. Steven J. Milloy, ‘Annual Report to TASSC Board Members’, 7 January 1998, Bates no. 2065254885–2065254890, p. 3: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=any77d00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
77. http://www.junkscience.com/nov98/moore.htm, viewed 23 May 2006.
78. http://www.junkscience.com/define.htm, viewed 24 May 2006.
79. United States Senate. US Lobby Registration and Reporting Disclosure Page: Steve Milloy. http://sopr.senate.gov/cgi-win/m_opr_viewer.exe?DoFn=3&LOB=MILLOY,%20STEVE&LOBQUAL==
80. Americans for Nonsmokers’ Rights, February 2006. The ‘Junkman’ Exposed. http://www.no-smoke.org/pdf/stevenmilloy.pdf
81. Tom Borelli, Philip Morris Management Corporation, 11 April 1996. Junk Science. Bates no. 2505642662: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=zna25c00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
82. Steven J. Milloy, op. cit. (note 76, above), p. 1.
83. Steven J. Milloy, op. cit. (note 76, above), p. 3.
84. Philip Morris, ‘Public Policy Recommendations for 1997 with Paid Status’, 25 February 1998, Bates no. 2063351196–2063351220, p. 4: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=fah53a00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
85. Philip Morris, ‘Issues Management’, 2001, Bates no. 2082656417–2082656505, p. 13: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=kwk84a00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
86. Paul D. Thacker, ‘Pundit for Hire’, New Republic, 26 January 2006.
87. Steven J. Milloy, ‘Omitted Epidemiology’, British Medical Journal, Vol. 317 (2 October 1998): http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/317/7163/903/a
88. 2004 IRS documents, cited by Environmental Science and Technology, ‘The Junkman Climbs to the Top’, 11 May 2005: http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/esthag-w/2005/may/business/pt_junkscience.html
89. http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=881
90. ibid.
91. Paul D. Thacker, op. cit. (note 86, above).
92. Philip Morris, op. cit. (note 84, above), pp. 3–4.
93. Steven Milloy, ‘Secondhand Smokescreen’, 4 April 2001: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,1897,00.html
94. Steven Milloy, ‘Second-Hand Smokescreens’, 4 June 2001: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,26109,00.html
95. Steven Milloy, ‘Kyoto’s Quiet Anniversary’, 16 February 2006: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,185171,00.html
96. Steven Milloy, ‘Hot Air Hysteria’, 16 March 2006: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,188176,00.html
97. Steven Milloy, ‘The Greenhouse Myth’, 20 April 2006: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,192544,00.html
98. Paul D. Thacker, op. cit. (note 86, above).
99. For example http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,196118,00.html, viewed May 24 2006.
100. Steven J. Milloy, op. cit. (note 76, above).
101. Colin Stokes, Chairman of RJ Reynolds, ‘RJR’s Support of Biomedical Research’, November 1979: Bates no. 504480506–504480517, p. 7: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=uyr65d00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
102. John L. Bacon, Director of Corporate Contributions, RJ Reynolds, interoffice memorandum (‘Consultancy Agreements – Dr’s Seitz and McCarty’) to Edward A. Horrigan, Jr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, RJ Reynolds, 15 July 1986, Bates no. 508455416: http://tobaccodocuments.org/rjr/508455415–5416.html?pattern=508455416images
103. Edward A. Horrigan, Jr, letter to Frederick Seitz, 15 July 1986, Bates no. 508263286: http://tobaccodocuments.org/rjr/508263286–3286.html
104. RJ Reynolds, ‘Procedures for Managing and Progress Monitoring of RJ Reynolds Industries Support of Biomedical Research’, no date, Bates no. 502130487: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=cva29d00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
105. John L. Bacon, minutes of the RJ Reynolds Medical Research meeting, 13 September 1979, Bates no. 504480459–504480464: http://tobaccodocuments.org/rjr/504480459–0464.pdf
106. Colin Stokes, op. cit. (note 101, above).
107. Philip Morris, untitled notes for a presentation, 1992, Bates no. 2024102283– 2024102287, p. 5: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=pfa35e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
108. This memo, and several other details of Seitz’s involvement with the tobacco industry was brought to light by Norbert Hirschhorn and Stella Aguinaga Bialous, ‘Second-hand Smoke and Risk Assessment: What Was In It for the Tobacco Industry?’, Tobacco Control, Vol. 10 (2001), pp. 375–82: http://tc.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/10/4/375
109. Tom Hockaday, memo (‘Opinion Editorials on Indoor Air Quality and Junk Science’) to Ellen Merlo et al., 8 March 1993, Bates no. 2021178205: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=iuj46e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
110. S. Fred Singer, ‘Junk Science at the EPA’, 1993, Bates no. 2021178206– 2021178208, p. 2: http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/cgi/getdoc?tid=cuj46e00&fmt=pdf&ref=results
111. Tom Hockaday and Neal Cohen, op. cit. (note 64, above), p. 5.
112. Philip Morris, op. cit. (note 84, above).
113. ibid.
114. http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/live_events/forums/04/1091183999/html/f_info.stm
115. Today Programme, 19 May 2005, BBC Radio 4: http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/l…al_20050519.ram
116. http://www.junkscience.com/Junkman.html
117. Senator James M. Inhofe (R-Okla), Senate Floor Statement: The Science of Climate Change, 28 July 2003: http://inhofe.senate.gov/pressreleases/climate.htm
118. ibid.
119. http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=2
120. Philip Morris, op. cit. (note 84, above), p. 3.
121. Letter from Myron Ebell to Phil Cooney, published in ‘White House Effect’, Harper’s magazine, May 2004.
122. Andrew C. Revkin, ‘Bush Aide Softened Greenhouse Gas Links to Global Warming’, New York Times, 8 June 2005.
123. ibid.
124. Jamie Wilson, ‘Bush’s Climate Row Aide Joins Oil Giant’, Guardian, 16 June 2005.
125. A. G. (Randy) Randol III, Senior Environmental Adviser, ExxonMobil, memo (‘Bush Team for IPCC negotiations’) to John Howard, 6 February 2001, facsimile, sent from tel. no. (202) 8620268.
126. ibid., p. 2.
127. ibid., p. 5.
128. Oxford English Dictionary.
129. Sir David King, The Greenpeace Business lecture, 13 October 2004: http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/contentlookup.cfm?CFID=1322590&CFTOKEN=77800261&ucidparam=20041013100519
130. David King, speech to the ‘Decarbonising the UK’ conference, 21 September 2005, Church House, Westminster.
131. Simon Retallack, ‘Setting a Long Term Climate Objective: A Paper for the International Taskforce on Climate Change’ (Institute for Public Policy Research, October 2004): http://www.ippr.org.uk/ecomm/files/climate_objective.pdf
3 A RATION OF FREEDOM
1. Doctor Faustus, p. 30.
2. Richard Layard, Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (Allen Lane, London, 2005), p. 44.
3. George Orwell, 1940. ‘The Lion and the Unicorn’ (1940), in Essays (Penguin, London, 2000), p. 170.
4. Aubrey Meyer, Contraction and Convergence: The Global Solution to Climate Change ’, Schumacher Briefing no. 5 (Green Books, Totnes, Devon, 2005).
5. See David Fleming, ‘Energy and the Common Purpose: Descending the Energy Staircase with Tradeable Energy Quotas (TEQs)’, no date: http://www.teqs.net/book/teqs.pdf
6. Tina Fawcett, presentation (‘Personal Carbon Allowances and Industrial and Commercial Sector Capping’) to the UK Energy Research Centre’s workshop ‘Taxing and Trading’, 3 November 2005.
7. Richard Starkey and Kevin Anderson, Domestic Tradable Quotas: A Policy Instrument for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Use, Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 39, December 2005.
8. See Kevin Smith et al., Hoodwinked in the Hothouse: The G8, Climate Change and Free Market Environmentalism, Transnational Institute Briefing Series, 30 June 2005: http://www.tni.org/reports/ctw/hothouse.pdf
9. Roger Harrabin, ‘£1bn Windfall from Carbon Trading’, BBC News Online, 1 May 2006: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4961320.stm
10. P. Ekins and S. Dresner, Green Taxes and Charges: Reducing their Impact on Low-income Households (Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York, 2004), cited in Decarbonising the UK – Energy for a Climate Conscious Future (The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2005), p. 60: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/media/news/tyndall_decarbonising_the_uk.pdf
11. Roger Levett, ‘Carbon Rationing Versus Energy Taxes: A False Opposition?’, 25 October 2005: http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/component/option,com_docman/task,doc_download/gid,325/
12. Bjørn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001), p. 310.
13. ibid., p. 312.
14. Richard D. Knabb, Jamie R. Rhome, and Daniel P. Brown, ‘Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Katrina’, National Hurricane Center, 20 December 2005: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf
15. David Pearce et al., ‘The Social Costs of Climate Change: Greenhouse Damage and the Benefits of Control’, in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimesnions of Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996), pp. 183–224.
16. Her Majesty’s Treasury/Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon Emissions’, 2002: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/209/60/scc.pdf
17. Performance and Innovation Unit, The Energy Review, February 2002, Annex 6, Table 1: http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/energy/20.html
18. Commission of the European Communities, ‘Winning the Battle against Global Climate Change’, background paper, 9 February 2005, p. 25: http://europa.eu.int/comm/press_room/presspacks/climate/staff_work_paper_sec_2005_180_3.pdf
19. Christian Azar and Stephen Schneider, 2002. ‘Are the Economic Costs of Stabilizing the Atmosphere Prohibitive?’, Ecological Economics, Vol. 42, pp. 73–80. See page 76.
20. ibid., p. 77.
21. Centrica, quoted by BBC News Online, ‘Gas Prices “Set to Rise Further”’: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4684108.stm
22. Christopher Adams, ‘Industry Feels Heat of Gas Price Surge’, Financial Times, 17 February 2006.
23. See, for example, ‘Copenhagen Consensus, 2005. The Results’: http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Files/Filer/CC/Press/UK/copenhagen_consensus_result_FINAL.pdf
24. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, ‘Aid from DAC Members, Donor Aid Charts’, United States (for 2004), 2006: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/30/1860571.gif
25. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, ‘Aid from DAC Members, Donor Aid Charts’, United Kingdom (for 2004, 2006): http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/53/1860562.gif
26. Department for Transport statistics, December 2005, collated by Road Block: http://www.roadblock.org.uk/pressreleases/info/TPI%20and%20local%_20schemes%20Dec05.xls
27. Lord McKenzie of Luton, parliamentary answer HL 1508, 10 October 2005 : http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200405/ldhansrd/pdvn/lds05/text/51010w04.htm
28. Norman Myers and Jennifer Kent, Perverse Subsidies: How Tax Dollars can Undercut the Environment and the Economy (Island Press, Washington DC, 2001), p. 14.
29. ibid., p. 13.
30. http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/energypdfs2.htm
31. Rep. Henry Waxman, letter to the Honorable J. Dennis Hastert, 27 July 2005: http://www.democrats.reform.house.gov/Documents/20050727165629–26334.pdf
32. ibid.
33. European Environment Agency, Energy Subsidies in the European Union: A Brief Overview (EEA, Copenhagen, 2004), p. 14: http://reports.eea.eu.int/technical_report_20041/en/Energy_FINAL_web.pdf
34. ibid., p. 9.
35. ibid., p. 14.
36. Linda Bilmes and Joseph E. Stiglitz, ‘The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years after the Beginning of the Conflict’, Working Paper Number RWP06–002, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 11 January 2006: http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/research/wpaper.nsf/rwp/RWP06–002/$File/rwp_06_002_Bilmes_SSRN.pdf
37. For example, Energy Technology Support Unit, New and Renewable Energy: Prospects in the UK for the 21st Century – Supporting Analysis (ETSU, Harwell, 1999), pp. 227–8.
38. For example, http://www.peakoil.net, http://www.oilcrisis.com, and Matthew Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (Wiley, New York, 2005).
39. For example, John H. Wood, Gary R. Long and David F. Morehouse, ‘Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert’, Energy Information Administration, 18 August 2004: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
40. Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, ‘Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management’, US Department of Energy, February 2005, available at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/us/NETL/OilPeaking.pdf
41. ibid., p. 4.
42. ibid., p. 59.
43. International Energy Agency, ‘Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy’, May 2004, p. 2: http://www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2004/high_oil_prices.pdf
44. ibid.
45. Doctor Faustus, Act V, Scene 2.
1. Faust, Lines 11604–5.
2. J. Daniel Khazzoom, ‘Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency Standards for Household Appliances’, Energy Journal, Vol. 1 (1980), pp. 21–39.
3. Stanley Jevons, The Coal Question – Can Britain Survive? (1865), quoted in Horace Herring, ‘Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy: The Implications of Accepting the Khazzoom–Brookes Postulate’, April 1998: http://technology.open.ac.uk/eeru/staff/horace/kbpotl.htm
4. J. Ausubel and H. D. Langford (eds.), Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment (US National Academy of Engineering, 1997), cited in Decarbonising the UK – Energy for a Climate Conscious Future (The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2005), p. 70.
5. Paul Hawken, Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: The Next Industrial Revolution (Earthscan, London, 1999), p. 62.
6. Katharina Kröger, Malcolm Fergusson and Ian Skinner, ‘Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies’, The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper 36, October 2003, p. 5: http://tyndall.e-collaboration.co.uk/publications/workingpapers/wp36.pdf
7. Roger Levett, ‘Quality of Life Eco-Efficiency’, Energy and Environment, Vol. 15 (2004), pp. 1015–26.
8. See Horace Herring, ‘Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy: The Implications of Accepting the Khazzoom–Brookes Postulate’, April 1998: http://technology.open.ac.uk/eeru/staff/horace/kbpotl.htm
9. ibid.
10. Paul Hawken, Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins, op. cit. (note 5, above), p. 13.
11. ibid., p. 126.
12. ibid.
13. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (government of Australia), ‘Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate’, January 2006: http://www.dfat.gov.au/environment/climate/ap6/
14. The latest regulations for existing dwellings are published by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, The Building Regulations 2000, Part L1B, 6 April 2006: http://www.odpm.gov.uk/pub/338/ApprovedDocument L1BConservationoffuelandpowerExistingdwellings2006edition_id1164338.pdf
15. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, ‘Energy Efficiency’, 5 July, 2005, paragraph 7.15: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldsctech/21/2102.htm
16. An official from the Department of Trade and Industry, speaking at the ‘Resource’05’ conference, Building Research Establishment, Watford, 15 September 2005.
17. Yvette Cooper, quoted by Paul Brown, ‘Energy-saving Targets Scrapped’, Guardian, 18 July 2005.
18. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘Energy Consumption in the United Kingdom’, 2003, p. 23: http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file11250.pdf
19. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘UK Energy Sector Indicators 2004’, 2004, p. 97: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/inform/energy_indicators/ind11_2004.pdf
20. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 18, above), p. 11.
21. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 19, above), p. 105.
22. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘Energy: Its Impact on the Environment and Society’, 2005, Chapter 3, page 9: http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file20263.pdf
23. Brenda Boardman et al., 40% House (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 2005), p. 39.
24. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), paragraph 7.14.
25. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 22, above), p. 9.
26. Paul Brown, op. cit. (note 17, above).
27. Andrew Warren, quoted in anon., ‘Changes to Building Regulations “Substantially, Deliberately Weakened”’, Energy World, November/December 2005.
28. ibid.
29. David Olivier, ‘Setting New Standards’, Building for a Future, summer 2001.
30. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), Appendix 8.
31. David Strong, Building Research Establishment, evidence before the House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, 9 February 2005, Question 534: http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldsctech/21/5020903.htm
32. Andrew Warren, ‘Time to Put a Stop to the Disdain for Regulations’, Energy in Buildings and Industry, March 2006: http://www.ukace.org/pubs/articles/eibi2006–03.pdf
33. P. Grigg, ‘Assessment of Energy Efficiency Impact of Building Regulations Compliance’, report by the Building Research Establishment for the Energy Savings Trust and Energy Efficiency Partnership for Homes, 10 November 2004: http://www.est.org.uk/uploads/documents/partnership/Houses_airtightness_report_Oct_04.pdf
34. David Strong, presentation to the ‘Resource’05’ conference, Building Research Establishment, Watford, 15 September 2005.
35. David Strong, op. cit. (note 31, above).
36. ibid.
37. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), para 6.25.
38. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, ‘First Report’, 19 January 2005, para 117: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200405/cmselect/cmenvaud/135/13502.htm
39. Andrew Warren, Association for the Conservation of Energy, personal communication.
40. Mick Hamer, ‘How Green is Your House?’, New Scientist, 5 November 2005.
41. David Strong, op. cit. (note 31, above), Question 528.
42. Passiv Haus Institut, ‘What is a Passive House?’, no date: http://www.passiv.de
43. Jürgen Schnieders, ‘CEPHEUS – Measurement Results from More Than 100 Dwelling Units in Passive Houses’, May 2003: http://www.passiv.de/07_eng/news/CEPHEUS_ECEEE.pdf
44. ibid.
45. ibid.
46. Patrick Bellew, Atelier 10, 13 October 2005, personal communication.
47. Peter Cox, ‘Passivhaus’, Building for a Future, winter 2005/6.
48. Passiv Haus Institut, op. cit. (note 42, above).
49. Jürgen Schnieders, op. cit. (note 43, above).
50. Peter Cox, op. cit. (note 47, above).
51. David Olivier, op. cit. (note 29, above).
52. H. F. Kaan and B. J. de Boer, ‘Passive Houses: Achievable Concepts for Low CO2 Housing’, paper presented to the ISES conference 2005, Orlando, USA: http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2006/rx06019.pdf
53. Jennie Organ, ‘Beddington Zero Energy Development (BedZED)’, Sustainable Development Commission, no date: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/communitiessummit/show_case_study.php/00035.html
54. Bedzed, no date. BedZED, no date, sales brochure: http://www.bedzed.org.uk/BedZed_Brochure.pdf
55. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Energy – The Changing Climate, June 2000, Chapter 6, Box 6c: http://www.rcep.org.uk/newenergy.htm
56. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, op. cit. (note 38, above).
57. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), para 7.28.
58. Brenda Boardman et al., op. cit. (note 23, above), p. 88.
59. ibid., p. 39.
60. ibid., p. 43.
61. Hiroshi Matsumoto, ‘System Dynamics Model for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Residential Buildings’, 1999: http://www.ibpsa.org/%5Cproceedings%5CBS1999%5CBS99_PB-07.pdf
62. XCO2 Conisbee Ltd, ‘Insulation for Sustainability – A Guide’: http://www.insulation.kingspan.com/newdiv/pdf/IfS%20Summary.pdf
63. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), para 7.2.
64. ibid.
65. Eoin Lees, ‘Using Stamp Duty to bring about a Step Change in Household Energy Efficiency’, report to CIGA/NIA and Association for the Conservation of Energy, 8 January 2005: http://www.ukace.org/pubs/reportfo/2005%20Using%20Stamp%20Duty%20to%20bring%20about%20a%20Step%20Change%20in%20Household%20Energy%20Efficiency.pdf
66. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Sustainable Energy: Energy Efficiency Commitment’, 18 April 2006: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/energy/eec/
67. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 22, above), p. 11.
68. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), para 3.10.
69. HM Treasury, Budget 2006, Chapter 7, para 7.51: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/20F/1D/bud06_ch7_161.pdf
70. Brenda Boardman et al., op. cit. (note 23, above), p. 48.
71. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 22, above), p. 11.
72. Brenda Boardman et al., op. cit. (note 23, above), p. 48.
73. Elliot Morley, parliamentary answer no. 4451, 16 June 2005: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmhansrd/cm050616/text/50616w12.htmcolumn_564
74. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), para 9.26.
75. Brenda Boardman, ‘Achieving Energy Efficiency through Product Policy: The UK Experience’, Environmental Science and Policy, Vol. 7 (2004), pp. 165–76.
76. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 22, above), p. 7.
77. Brenda Boardman et al., op. cit. (note 23, above), p. 49.
78. ibid., p. 56.
79. Brenda Boardman, op. cit. (note 75, above).
80. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), para 9.4.
81. Friends of the Earth, ‘Energy Saving Labels May Be Banned’, press release, 20 October 2005: http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/press_releases/energy_saving_labels_may_b_20102005.html
82. P. Schiellerup, ‘An Examination of the Effectiveness of the EU Minimum Standard on Cold Appliances: The British Case’, Energy Policy, Vol. 30 (2002), pp. 327–32.
83. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above) para 9.7.
84. G. Wood and M. Newborough, ‘Dynamic Energy-consumption Indicators for Domestic Appliances: Environment, Behaviour and Design’, Energy and Buildings, Vol. 35 (2003), pp. 821–41.
85. L. McClelland and S. Cook, ‘Energy Conservation Effects of Continuous In-home Feedback in All-electric Homes’, Journal of Environmental Systems, Vol. 9 (1980), pp. 169–73; J. K. Dobson and J. D. Griffin, ‘Conservation Effect of Immediate Electricity Cost Feedback on Residential Consumption Behaviour, in Proceedings of the 7th ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings (ACEEE, Washington, DC, 1992); both cited in G. Wood and M. Newborough, op. cit. (note 84, above).
86. A. Meyel, Low Income Households and Energy Conservation: Institutional, Behavioural and Housing Barriers to the Adoption of Energy Conservation Measures (Built Environment Research Group, Polytechnic of Central London, London, 1987), cited in G. Wood and M. Newborough, op. cit. (note 84, above).
87. Ontario Energy Board, ‘Smart Meter Initiative (RP-2004–0196)’, 2005: http://www.oeb.gov.on.ca/html/en/industryrelations/ongoingprojectssmartmeters.htm
88. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), para 5.57.
89. http://www.designcouncil.org.uk/futurecurrents
90. Brenda Boardman et al., op. cit. (note 23, above), p. 84.
91. George Marshall, Climate Outreach Information Network, personal communication.
92. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 15, above), paras 6.33–6.44.
5 KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON
1. Faust, Lines 10216–19
2. PB Power, The Cost of Generating Electricity (The Royal Academy of Engineering, London, 2004), p. 13.
3. Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.), Energy Systems and Sustainability (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003), p. 379.
4. The Sizewell B nuclear power station has a capacity of 1320 MW. David Milborrow, ‘The Practicalities of Developing Renewable Energy’, 10 October 2003: http://www.bwea.com/pdf/DM-Lords-intermittency.pdf
5. The Sustainable Development Commission, Wind Power in the UK, May 2005, p. 27: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/Wind_Energy-NovRev2005.pdf
6. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Energy – The Changing Climate, June 2000, Chapter 8, Box 8B: http://www.rcep.org.uk/newenergy.htm
7. The British Wind Energy Association, ‘Power UK: Costs and Benefits of Large-scale Development of Wind-power’, March 2003: http://www.bwea.com/pdf/PowerUK-March2003-page17–25.pdf
8. Brenda Boardman et al., 40% House (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 2005), p. 74.
9. Department of Trade and Industry, Energy Trends, 2005, p. 15: http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file11881.pdf
10. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 6, above), para 3.36.
11. ibid., para 3.38.
12. Bennett Daviss, ‘Coal Goes for the Burn’, New Scientist, 3 September 2005.
13. Greenpeace UK, ‘Decentralising Power: An Energy Revolution for the 21st Century’, 2005, p. 26: http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/MultimediaFiles/Live/FullReport/7154.pdf
14. US Energy Information Administration, ‘Country Analysis Brief: United Kingdom’, April 2005: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/United_Kingdom/Background.html
15. Bennett Davis, op. cit. (note 12, above).
16. ibid.
17. The Department of Trade and Industry says that ‘Encouraged by new lower-cost and higher-efficiency technology, combined with an increasing price advantage over natural gas, coal could show significant expansion in UK power generation after 2020,’ Department of Trade and Industry, ‘A Strategy for Developing Carbon Abatement Technologies for Fossil Fuel Use’, 2005, p. 20: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/coal/cfft/catstrategy.shtml
18. Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, ‘Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management’, US Department of Energy, February 2005, p. 34, available at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/us/NETL/OilPeaking.pdf
19. Christopher Adams, ‘Industry Feels Heat of Gas Price Surge’, Financial Times, 17 February 2006.
20. The Economist Intelligence Unit, ‘Ukraine Economy: Gas Trouble’, 17 February 2006: http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2006/02/17/1384897.htm
21. For example, Martin Flanagan, ‘Call for Inquiry as Gas Pipe from Europe Runs Half Empty’, Scotsman, 30 January 2006.
22. Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, ‘The Future of UK Gas Supplies’, Postnote no. 230, October 2004: http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/POSTpn230.pdf
23. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 6, above), para 3.36.
24. George Monbiot, letter to New Scientist, 11 June 2005.
25. Global Business Environment, Shell International, 2002. ‘People and Connections: Global Scenarios to 2020’, 2002: http://www.shell.com/static/media-en/downloads/peopleandconnections.pdf
26. The Geological Society, ‘How to Plug the Energy Gap’, 10 November 2005: http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/template.cfm?name=PR60
27. Olav Kaarstad, Statoil, quoted by Reuters, ‘Norway Has Vast, Inaccessible Seabed Coal – Statoil’, 21 December 2005.
28. The Geological Society, op. cit. (note 26, above).
29. Olav Kaarstad, op. cit. (note 27, above).
30. Bennett Daviss, op. cit. (note 12, above).
31. House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, ‘Renewable Energy: Practicalities’, 15 July 2004, para 2.5: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200304/ldselect/ldsctech/126/12602.htm
32. Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 22, above).
33. Dominion, ‘Underground Storage’, 2006:http://www.dom.com/about/gas-transmission/storage.jsp
34. Columbia Gas Transmission Corporation, Docket No. CP05–144-000, 2001: http://www.columbiagastrans.com/NewProjects/Hardy/Virginia%20Looping.htm
35. Performance and Innovation Unit, ‘The Energy Review’, February 2002, Annex 6: http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/energy/20.html
36. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘A Strategy for Developing Carbon Abatement Technologies for Fossil Fuel Use’, 2005: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/coal/cfft/catstrategy.shtml
37. Fred Pearce, ‘Squeaky Clean Fossil Fuels’, New Scientist, 30 April 2005.
38. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 36, above), p. 26.
39. Emma Young, ‘Burying the Problem’, New Scientist, 3 September 2005.
40. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 36, above).
41. Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.), op. cit. (note 3, above), p. 578.
42. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘Review of the Feasibility of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in the UK’, 2005, p. 13: http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file21887.pdf
43. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 36, above) p. 28.
44. Bert Metz et al. (eds.), ‘Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage: Summary for Policymakers’, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, no date, Table SPM.1, p. 9: http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/ccsspm.pdf
45. ibid., p. 13.
46. ibid., p. 35.
47. Cited by the Union of Concerned Scientists, ‘Policy Context Of Geologic Carbon Sequestration’, 2003: http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global warming/GEO_CARBON_SEQ for_web.pdf
48. Here are some estimates:
source |
cost per tonne of buried carbon dioxide |
The Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas |
US$40 |
Technologies, present day49 |
(£23) |
UK government’s Inter-departmental Analysts Group, estimate for |
£20–30 |
2020 or 202550 |
|
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for gas plants, present |
US$40–90 |
day51 |
(£23–52) |
OECD/International Energy Agency, present day52 |
US$50–100 |
|
(£30–60) |
Imperial College MARKAL model, from gas. Estimate for 2020 or |
£50–55 |
202553 |
|
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for coal plants, present |
US$40–270 |
day54 |
(£23–160) |
49. Cited by Emma Young, op. cit. (note 39, above).
50. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 42, above), p. 29.
51. Bert Metz et al. (eds.), op. cit. (note 44, above), p. 17, Table SPM.4.
52. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/International Energy Agency, Prospects for CO 2Capture and Storage (OECD, Paris, December 2004), cited by Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 42, above).
53. Cited in Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 42, above), p. 29.
54. Bert Metz et al. (eds.), op. cit. (note 44, above), p. 17, Table SPM.4 (this includes both pulverized coal and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle).
55. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘Energy – Its Impact on the Environment and Society’, 2005, p. 43, Table 4 (47MtC, multiplied by 3.667): http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file20263.pdf
56. Bert Metz et al. (eds.), op. cit. (note 44, above), p. 10.
57. E-mail from Jonathan Gibbins, 27 September 2005.
58. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 42, above).
59. Advanced Resources International, ‘Undeveloped Domestic Oil Resources: The Foundation for Increasing Oil Production and a Viable Domestic Oil Industry’, US Department of Energy, February 2006: http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/publications/eor_CO2/Undeveloped_Oil_Document.pdf
60. Paul Harris, ‘They Flattened this Mountaintop to Find Coal – and Created a Wasteland’, Observer, 16 January 2005.
61. See, for example, http://www.ohvec.org/galleries/mountaintop_removal/007/43.html
62. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘Review of the Feasibility of Underground Coal Gasification in the UK’, October 2004, Executive Summary, p. 3: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/coal/cfft/ucgfeasibilityreport.pdf
63. ibid., p. 5.
64. ibid., p. 7.
65. US Energy Information Administration, op. cit. (note 14, above).
66. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 62, above), p. 3.
67. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 6, above), para 8.31.
68. Geoff Dutton et al., The Hydrogen Energy Economy: Its Long-term Role in Greenhouse Gas Reduction, Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 18, January 2005, p. 42.
69. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 42, above), p. 33.
70. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/International Energy Agency, op. cit. (note 52, above), summarized by Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 42, above), p. 32.
71. New Economics Foundation, ‘Mirage and Oasis: Energy Choices in an Age of Global Warming’, 29 June 2005: http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/sewyo355prhbgunpscr51d2w29062005080838.pdf
72. Greenpeace UK, op. cit. (note 13, above).
73. The Sustainable Development Commission, op. cit. (note 5, above).
74. These states, with the exception of Israel, are listed by Paul Leventhal in an article by William J. Broad, ‘Nuclear Weapons in Iran: Plowshare or Sword?’, The New York Times, 25 May 2004.
75. Israel’s weapons programme, as Mordechai Vanunu showed, was developed at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission site at Dimona, home to one of its two nuclear power plants.
76. ‘EC Court Challenge to Sellafield’, BBC News Online, 3 September 2004: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/3623312.stm
77. Rob Edwards, ‘Uranium Pond at Sellafield Sparks Court Threat by EU’, Sunday Herald, 28 March 2004.
78. ‘Legal Threat Over Sellafield Leak’, BBC News Online, 12 June 2005: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/4085224.stm
79. David Ross, ‘Dounreay Admits Shaft Error’, Herald, 22 May 1997.
80. John Arlidge, ‘Fresh Scare on Nuclear Waste’, Guardian, 2 February 1998.
81. There’s an interesting discussion of the conflicting estimates in Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.), op. cit. (note 3, above), p. 440.
82. Fraser King et al., ‘Copper Corrosion under Expected Conditions in a Deep Geologic Repository’, Posiva Oy, Helsinki, January 2002: http://www.posiva.fi/raportit/POSIVA-2002–01.pdf
83. ibid.
84. Rob Edwards, ‘Politics Left UK Nuclear Waste Plans in Disarray’, New Scientist, 18 June 2005.
85. Geoffrey Lean, ‘Nuclear Waste: The 1,000-year Fudge’, Independent on Sunday, 12 June 2005.
86. Erica Werner, ‘Yucca Scientists Faked Records to Show Proof of Work’, Pahrump Valley Times, 6 April 2005: http://www.pahrumpvalleytimes.com/2005/04/06/news/ymprecords.html
87. anon., ‘Pahrump Man in the Center of Yucca Dispute’, Pahrump Valley Times, 6 April 2005: http://www.pahrumpvalleytimes.com/2005/04/06/news/ymprecords.html
88. David Lowenthal, University College London, letter to New Scientist, 9 July 2005.
89. Nuclear Decommissioning Authority, ‘Approved Strategy For Clean-Up of UK’s Nuclear Sites Published’, press release, 30 March 2006: http://www.nda.gov.uk/documents/news_release_-_national.pdf
90. Tim Webb and Robin Buckley, ‘British Energy has Come Back from the Brink, but How Long Will the Nuclear Frisson Last?’, Independent on Sunday, 20 June 2004.
91. Paul Brown, ‘Taxpayers’ £184m Aid to Private Energy Firm’, Guardian, 18 July 2005.
92. Bridget Woodman, ‘New Nuclear Power Plants “Would Halt Move Towards Decentralized Renewable Sources”’, Energy World, November/December 2005.
93. European Environment Agency, Energy Subsidies in the European Union: A Brief Overview (EEA, Copenhagen, 2004), p. 17: http://reports.eea.eu.int/technical_report_2004_1/en/Energy_FINAL_web.pdf
94. New Economics Foundation, op. cit. (note 71, above), p. 36.
95. ibid., p. 30.
96. ibid.
97. European Environment Agency, op. cit. (note 93, above).
98. Oxera, ‘Financing the Nuclear Option: Modelling the Costs of New Build’, June 2005, p. 4: http://www.oxera.com/cmsDocuments/Agenda_June%2005/Financing%20the%20nuclear%20option.pdf
99. Marshall Goldberg, ‘Federal Energy Subsidies: Not All Technologies are Created Equal’, Renewable Energy Policy Project, July 2000: http://www.crest.org/repp_pubs/pdf/subsidies.pdf
100. Dwight D. Eisenhower, ‘Atoms for Peace’, speech to the United Nations General Assembly, 8 December 1953.
101. I’m referring in particular to the Private Finance Initiative schemes I investigated in Captive State: The Corporate Takeover of Britain (Macmillan, London, 2000).
102. Ofgem, personal communication.
103. Nuclear Energy Institute, ‘Nuclear Power Plants Maintain Lowest Production Cost for Baseload Electricity’, 3 September 2003: http://www.nei.org/index.asp?catnum=4&catid=511
104. PB Power, op. cit. (note 2, above), p. 9.
105. Cited by Performance and Innovation Unit, The Energy Review, February 2002, para 42.
106. Performance and Innovation Unit, op. cit. (note 105, above), summary table.
107. Cited by Amory Lovins, ‘Nuclear Power: Economics and Climate-protection Potential’, Rocky Mountain Institute, 11 September 2005: http://www.rmi.org/images/other/Energy/E05–08_NukePwrEcon.pdf
108. New Economics Foundation, op. cit. (note 71, above), p. 37.
109. British Energy, ‘Sizewell B Power Station Marks 10 Years’, 14 February 2005: http://www.british-energy.com/article.php?article=23
110. Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.), op. cit. (note 3, above), pp. 426–7.
111. World Nuclear Association, ‘Uranium availability’, 2003, Part 3.3: http://www.world-nuclear.org/education/ne/ne3.htm3.3
112. Jan van Leeuwen and Philip Smith, Nuclear Power: The Energy Balance, 6 August 2005 (sixth revision), Chapter 2: http://www.stormsmith.nl/Chap_2_EnergyProduction_and_Fuel_costs_rev6.PDF
113. Felix Preston and Paul Baruya, ‘Paper 8: Uranium Resource Availability’, The Role of Nuclear Power in a Low Carbon Economy (Sustainable Development Commission, March 2006): http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/Nuclear-paper8-UraniumResourceAvailability.pdf
114. The Sustainable Development Commission, The Role of Nuclear Power in a Low Carbon Economy, SDC position paper, March 2006, p. 10: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/SDC-NuclearPosition-2006.pdf
115. ibid.
116. Sustainable Development Commission, March 2006. ‘Paper 2: Reducing CO 2Emissions – Nuclear and the Alternatives’, The Role of Nuclear Power in a Low Carbon Economy (Sustainable Development Commission, March 2006): http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/Nuclear-paper2-reducingCO2emissions.pdf
117. World Nuclear Association, ‘Energy Balances and CO2 Implications’, November 2005: http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf100.htm
118. ibid.
119. Jan van Leeuwen and Philip Smith, op. cit. (note 112, above).
120. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf11.htm
121. http://www.stormsmith.nl/References.PDF
122. Tom Burke, oral evidence to the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, ‘Keeping the Lights On: Nuclear, Renewables and Climate Change’, 19 October 2005, Q69: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmenvaud/uc584-i/uc58402.htm
123. Cited by New Economics Foundation, op. cit. (note 71, above), p. 27.
124. E-mail from Jennifer McGregor, Scottish and Southern Energy Group, 2nd November 2005.
125. Nick Jenkins, at the ‘Decarbonising the UK’ conference, 21 September 2005, Church House, Westminster.
126. Jack Doyle, Taken for a Ride: Detroit’s Big Three and the Politics of Pollution (Four Walls, Eight Windows, New York, 2000), pp. 1–2.
127. Geoff Dutton et al., op. cit. (note 68, above), p. 42.
6 HOW MUCH ENERGY CAN RENEWABLES SUPPLY?
1. Faust, lines 259–62.
2. The renewable technology whose manufacture uses the most energy is solar photovoltaic. But even this has an energy payback time of just 2.5–4 years. Erik Alsema and Evert Nieuwlaar, ‘Energy Viability of Photovoltaic Systems’, Energy Policy, Vol. 28 (2002), pp. 999–1010.
3. The House of Lords gives an energy payback time for wind power of 1.1 years. This includes installation and the connection to the grid. House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, ‘Renewable Energy: Practicalities’, 15 July 2004, Appendix 8, p. 105: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200304/ldselect/ldsctech/126/12602.htm
4. US Energy Information Administration, ‘Country Analysis Brief: United Kingdom’, April 2005: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html
5. Energy Technology Support Unit, New and Renewable Energy: Prospects in the UK for the 21st Century: Supporting Analysis (ETSU, Harwell, 1999): http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/renewables/publications/pdfs/support.pdf
6. Department of Trade and Industry, ‘Offshore Renewables – the Potential Resource’, 2005: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/leg_and_reg/consents/futureoffshore/chp2.pdf
7. Robert Gross, personal communication.
8. Energy Technology Support Unit, op. cit. (note 5, above), p. 171.
9. Department of Trade and Industry, op. cit. (note 6, above), p. 22.
10. Roberto Rudervall, J. P. Charpentier and Raghuveer Sharma, ‘High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Transmission Systems: Technology Review Paper’, World Bank and ABB, no date, p. 6: http://www.worldbank.org/html/fpd/em/transmission/technology_abb.pdf
11. ibid.
12. ibid., p. 18.
13. ABB Group, ‘History of ABB’s HVDC expertise’, 2005: http://www.abb.ee/global/abbzh/abbzh251.nsf!OpenDatabase&db=/global/abbzh/abbzh250.nsf&v=553E&e=us&url=/global/seitp/seitp202.nsf/0/7CFD9A3A7416A383C1256E8600406F4F!OpenDocument
14. David Milborrow, ‘Offshore Wind Rises to the Challenge’, Wind Power Monthly, April 2003, p. 51, cited by Robert Gross, ‘Technologies and Innovation for System Change in the UK: Status, Prospects and System Requirements of Some Leading Renewable Energy Options’, Energy Policy, Vol. 32 (2004), pp. 1905–19.
15. ibid.
16. Robert Gross, ‘Technologies and innovation for system change in the UK: status, prospects and system requirements of some leading renewable energy options’, Energy Policy. Vol. 32 (2004), pp. 1905–19.
17. Greenpeace, Estia and Solar Paces, ‘Concentrated Solar Thermal Power – Now’, September 2005: http://www.solarpaces.org/051006%20Greenpeace-Concentrated-Solar-Thermal-Power-Now-2005.pdf
18. ibid., p. 13.
19. ibid., p. 27.
20. Fred Pearce, ‘Power of the Midday Sun’, New Scientist, 10 April 2004.
21. Greenpeace, Estia and Solar Paces, op. cit. (note 17, above).
22. Rachel Nowak, ‘Power Tower’, New Scientist, 31 July 2004.
23. Kosuke Kurokawa (ed.), ‘Energy from the Desert – Feasibility of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power (VLS-PV) Systems’, IEA Task VIII (James and James Ltd, May 2003), summarized at: http://jxj.base10.ws/magsandj/rew/2003_03/desert_power.html
24. International Energy Agency, Electricity Information (IEA, Paris, 2005), Part I – 1.3.
25. Kosuke Kurokawa (ed.), op. cit. (note 23, above).
26. ibid.
27. The Sustainable Development Commission, ‘Wind Power in the UK’, May 2005, p. 20: http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications/downloads/Wind_Energy-NovRev2005.pdf
28. National Grid Company, cited by the Sustainable Development Commission, op. cit. (note 27, above), p. 23.
29. ibid.
30. See the flattening curve on page 31 of Goran Strbac and Ilex Energy Consulting, ‘Quantifying the System Costs of Additional Renewables in 2020: A Report to the Department of Trade and Industry’, October 2002: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/developep/080scarreportv20.pdf
31. Graham Sinden, ‘Diversified Renewable Energy Portfolios for the UK’, presentation to the British Institute of Energy Economics ‘Diversified Renewable Strategy’ conference, 22 September 2005. In this report, he estimates a capacity credit of 8GW, but has since revised it to 6GW (personal communication).
32. Goran Strbac and Ilex Energy Consulting, op. cit. (note 30, above), Table 1, page ii: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/developep/080scar_report_v2_0.pdf
33. Robert Gross et al., ‘The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency: An Assessment of the Evidence on the Costs and Impacts of Intermittent Generation on the British Electricity Network’, UK Energy Research Centre, April 2006.
34. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Energy – The Changing Climate, June 2000, paragraph 8.54: http://www.rcep.org.uk/newenergy.htm
35. Robert Gross, op. cit. (note 16, above).
36. Goran Strbac and Ilex Energy Consulting, op. cit. (note 32, above).
37. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 34, above), para 8.41.
38. Lewis Dale et al., ‘Total Cost Estimates for Large-scale Wind Scenarios in the UK’, Energy Policy, Vol. 32 (2004), pp. 1949–56.
39. Hugh Sharman, ‘Why UK Wind Power Should Not Exceed 10 GW’, Civil Engineering, Vol. 158 (November 2005), pp. 161–9.
40. ibid.
41. Ofgem, personal communication.
42. Performance and Innovation Unit, The Energy Review, February 2002, Annex 6, para 40: http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/energy/20.html
43. Cited by New Economics Foundation, ‘Mirage and Oasis: Energy Choices in an Age of Global Warming’, 29 June 2005: http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/sewyo355prhbgunpscr51d2w29062005080838.pdf
44. Performance and Innovation Unit, op. cit. (note 42, above), para 38.
45. The Sustainable Development Commission, op. cit. (note 27, above), p. 27.
46. PB Power, The Cost of Generating Electricity (The Royal Academy of Engineering, London, 2004), pp. 45, 47.
47. ibid.
48. Performance and Innovation Unit, op. cit. (note 42, above), paras 55, 61.
49. The Sustainable Development Commission, op. cit. (note 27, above).
50. Performance and Innovation Unit, op. cit. (note 42, above), summary of key findings.
51. Jake Chapman and Robert Gross, ‘Technical and Economic Potential of Renewable Energy Generating Technologies: Potentials and Cost Reductions to 2020’, 2001: http://www.strategy.gov.uk/downloads/files/PIUh.pdf
52. ibid.
53. Performance and Innovation Unit, op. cit. (note 42, above), para 40.
54. PB Power, op. cit. (note 46, above), p. 49.
55. ibid.
56. Dave Andrews, Wessex Water, ‘How Diesels are Used to Provide Standing Reserve Services to the National Grid’, presentation to the Open University ‘Wind Power and Renewables’ conference, 11 January 2006.
57. Dave Andrews, Wessex Water, ‘The Availability Of Rapid Start Standby Generation And Its Potential Role in Coping With Intermittency Due to a Large Penetration of Renewables’, unpublished note, 4 July 2005.
58. Godfrey Boyle (ed.), Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2004), p. 405.
59. Graham Sinden, op. cit. (note 31, above).
60. Dave Andrews, op. cit. (note 56, above).
61. ibid.
62. Oxera, ‘The Non-Market Value of Generation Technologies’, June 2003, p. 14: http://www.oxera.co.uk/oxera/publicnsf/images/DKIG-5NCERA/$file/OXERAReport.pdf
63. Graham Sinden, ‘Assessing the Costs of Intermittent Power Generation’, presentation to the Intermittency Stakeholder Group, 5 July 2005.
64. ibid.
65. Graham Sinden, op. cit. (note 31, above).
66. For example, The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 34, above), para 8.57.
67. Compound figures adjusted for inflation. Compiled for Dave Andrews, personal communication.
68. House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, op. cit. (note 3, above), para 7.21: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200304/ldselect/ldsctech/126/12602.htm
69. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 34, above), para 8.58.
70. Brenda Boardman et al., 40% House (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 2005), p. 39.
71. Gaia Vince, ‘Smart Fridges Could Ease Burden on Energy Supply’, New Scientist, 30 July 2005.
72. Robert Gross, op. cit. (note 16, above).
73. UK Energy Research Centre, ‘An Assessment of Evidence on the Costs of Intermittent Power Generation: What is the Evidence on the Costs and Engineering Impacts of Intermittent Generation on the UK Electricity Network, and how Those Costs are Assigned?’, summary note, Stakeholder workshop, Imperial College, 5 July 2005.
74. Oliver Tickell, ‘Real-time Pricing Initiative’, unpublished paper, 2005.
75. ibid.
76. Suleiman Abu-Sharkh et al., Microgrids: Distributed On-site Generation, Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 22, March 2005, p. 61.
77. Brenda Boardman et al., op. cit. (note 70, above), p. 81.
78. Jeremy Woods, Robert Gross and Matthew Leach, Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, Innovation in the Renewable Heat Sector in the UK: Markets, Opportunities and Barriers, Imperial College, London, December 2003, p. 4: http://www.dti.gov.uk/renewables/policy/iceptinnovationbarriers.pdf
79. ibid., p. 5.
80. ibid.
81. Jake Chapman and Robert Gross, op. cit. (note 51, above).
82. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, ‘Biomass as a Renewable Energy Source’, 2004: http://www.rcep.org.uk/biomass/Biomass%20Report.pdf
83. UN Food and Agriculture Organization, ‘Parameters, Units and Conversion Factors’, no date: http://www.fao.org/documents/show_cdr.asp?url_file=/docrep/007/j4504e/j4504e08.htm
84. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 34, above), para 7.76.
85. Fred Pearce, When the Rivers Run Dry (Eden Project Books, London, 2006).
86. Cited by Lord Whitty, Minister for Food, Farming and Sustainable Energy, Supplementary Memorandum, 17 September 2003: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200203/cmselect/cmenvfru/929/3091509.htm
87. Energy Technology Support Unit, op. cit. (note 5, above), p. 73.
88. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 34, above), para 3.47.
89. House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, op. cit. (note 68, above), para 4.26.
90. Lord Sainsbury of Turville, parliamentary answer, 22 March 2004: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200304/ldhansrd/vo040322/text/40322w03.htm
91. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 82, above), para 2.76.
92. Energy Technology Support Unit, op. cit. (note 5, above), Table 8, p. 66.
93. UN Food and Agriculture Organization, op. cit. (note 82, above).
94. Energy Technology Support Unit, op. cit. (note 5, above), p. 66.
95. L. M. Maene, ‘Phosphate Fertilizer Production, Consumption and Trade: The Present Situation and Outlook to 2010’, paper presented to the Sulphur Institute’s 17th Sulphur Phosphate Symposium, Boca Raton, Florida, January 17–19, 1999. L. M. Maene is the Director General of the International Fertilizer Industry Association, Paris. http://www.fertilizer.org/ifa/publicat/PDF/1999_biblio_54.pdf
96. Future Energy Solutions, AEA Technology, ‘Renewable Heat and Heat from Combined Heat and Power Plants’, April 2005, p. 46: http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/acu/energy/fes-renewable-chp.pdf
97. ibid., p. 53.
98. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 34, above), para 3.43.
99. Future Energy Solutions, AEA Technology, op. cit. (note 96, above), p. 42.
100. New Economics Foundation, op. cit. (note 43, above), p. 23.
101. Future Energy Solutions, AEA Technology, op. cit. (note 96, above), p. 60.
7 THE ENERGY INTERNET
1. Faust, lines 11072–4.
2. Walt Patterson, ‘Keeping the Lights On’, Working Papers 1–3, The Royal Institute for International Affairs, March 2003: http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/index.php?id=233
3. Suleiman Abu-Sharkh et al., Microgrids: Distributed On-site Generation, Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 22, March 2005.
4. Greenpeace UK, ‘Decentralising Power: An Energy Revolution for the 21st Century’, 2005: http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/MultimediaFiles/Live/FullReport/7154.pdf
5. Erik Alsema and Evert Nieuwlaar, ‘Energy Viability of Photovoltaic Systems’, Energy Policy, Vol. 28 (2000), pp. 999–1010.
6. Jeremy Leggett, Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis (Portobello Books, London, 2005), p. 201.
7. ibid., note 253, p. 290.
8. Energy Technology Support Unit, New and Renewable Energy: Prospects in the UK for the 21st Century – Supporting Analysis (ETSU, Harwell, 1999), p. 141.
9. ibid., Figure 1: PV Resource-Cost Curve, p. 143.
10. Suleiman Abu-Sharkh et al., op. cit. (note 3, above), p. 33.
11. Jake Chapman and Robert Gross, ‘Technical and Economic Potential of Renewable Energy Generating Technologies: Potentials and Cost Reductions to 2020’, 2001: http://www.strategy.gov.uk/downloads/files/PIUh.pdf
12. Suleiman Abu-Sharkh et al., op. cit. (note 3, above), p. 53.
13. Robert Gross, ‘Technologies and Innovation for System Change in the UK: Status, Prospects and System Requirements of Some Leading Renewable Energy Options’, Energy Policy, Vol. 32 (2004), pp. 1905–19.
14. http://www.etsap.org/markal/main.html
15. Department of Trade and Industry, Energy White Paper, 2003, Supplementary Annexes, p. 7: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/whitepaper/annexes.pdf
16. Ofgem, personal communication.
17. Performance and Innovation Unit, The Energy Review, February 2002, Annex 6, para 40: http://www.number-10.gov.uk/su/energy/20.html
18. Jeremy Leggett, ‘Here Comes the Sun’, New Scientist, 6 September 2003.
19. The more pessimistic figure (thirty-five years) comes from Jim Watson, ‘Co-Provision in Sustainable Energy Systems: The Case of Microgeneration’, Energy Policy, Vol. 32 (March 2004), pp. 1981–90.
20. Energy Technology Support Unit, op. cit. (note 8, above), p. 133.
21. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Energy – The Changing Climate, June 2003, Para 7.40: http://www.rcep.org.uk/newenergy.htm
22. Godfrey Boyle (ed.), Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2004), pp. 76–82.
23. Jake Chapman and Robert Gross, op. cit. (note 11, above).
24. Paul Gipe, quoted by Nick Martin, ‘Can We Harvest Useful Wind Energy from the Roofs of Our Buildings?’, Building for a Future, winter 2005/6, special wind-power feature, Table 2.
25. Nick Martin, op. cit. (note 24, above), Table 2.
26. ibid.
27. ibid.
28. Derek Taylor, ‘Potential Outputs from 1–2m Diameter Wind Turbines’, Building for a Future, winter 2005/6, special wind-power feature, Figure 1.
29. Oliver Lowenstein, ‘Green Towers’, Building for a Future, June 2005.
30. Godfrey Boyle (ed.), op. cit. (note 22, above), p. 284.
31. Chris Dunham, personal communication.
32. Mick Hamer, ‘Be a Power Broker in Your Own Home’, New Scientist, 14 February 2004.
33. Fred Pearce, ‘Generate and Sell Your Own Electricity’, New Scientist, 21 June 2003.
34. Department of Trade and Industry, Energy White Paper: ‘Our Energy Future – Creating a Low Carbon Economy’, 2003, para 4.16.
35. Mick Hamer, op. cit. (note 32, above).
36. Future Energy Solutions, AEA Technology, ‘Renewable Heat and Heat from Combined Heat and Power Plants’, April 2005, p. 19: http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/acu/energy/fes-renewable-chp.pdf
37. Suleiman Abu-Sharkh et al., op. cit. (note 3, above), p. 70.
38. Neil Crumpton, personal communication.
39. ibid.
40. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/profiles/printV/UK.asp
41. Department of Trade and Industry, Digest of UK Energy Statistics, 2005: http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/inform/dukes/
42. Fred Pearce, op. cit. (note 33, above).
43. Future Energy Solutions, AEA Technology, op. cit. (note 36, above), p. 18.
44. Energy Saving Trust, Econnect and Element Energy, ‘Potential for Microgeneration: Final Report’, 14 November 2005: http://portal.est.org.uk/uploads/documents/aboutest/Microgeneration%20in%20the%20UK%20-%20final%20report%20REVISED_executive%20summary1.pdf
45. Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.) Energy Systems and Sustainability, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003, p. 371.
46. Future Energy Solutions, AEA Technology, op. cit. (note 37, above).
47. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, ‘Energy Efficiency’, 2005, Appendix 7 (Visit to Germany): http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/ld200506/ldselect/ldsctech/21/2122.htm
48. Future Energy Solutions, AEA Technology, op. cit. (note 36, above).
49. Geoff Dutton et al., The Hydrogen Energy Economy: Its Long-term Role in Greenhouse Gas Reduction, Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 18, January 2005, p. 12.
50. National Academy of Engineering, ‘The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs’, 2004, Table 4–1: http://www.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/39.html
51. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 49, above), Table 4–1.
52. ibid.
53. Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, ‘Assessment of Technological Options to Address Climate Change’, Imperial College, London, 2002, cited by Godfrey Boyle (ed.), op. cit. (note 22, above), p. 410.
54. ibid.
55. Ofgem, personal communication.
56. Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds)., op. cit. (note 45, above), p. 591.
57. Geoff Dutton et al., op. cit. (note 50, above), p. 13.
58. ibid., p. 14.
59. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 51, above), p. 38: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/38.html
60. Zhili Feng et al., ‘V.A. Pipelines: V.A.1 Hydrogen Permeability and Integrity of Hydrogen Transfer Pipelines’, US Department of Energy, 2005: http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/progress05/v_a_1_feng.pdf
61. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 51, above), p. 38: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/38.html
62. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 51, above), p. 39: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/38.html
63. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 21, above), para 3.42.
64. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 51, above), p. 31: http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309091632/html/31.html
65. Decarbonising the UK – Energy for a Climate Conscious Future (The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2005), p. 45: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/media/news/tyndall_decarbonising_the_uk.pdf
66. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 21, above), Box 8D.
67. Anil Ananthaswamy, ‘Reality Bites for the Dream of a Hydrogen Economy’, New Scientist, 15 November 2003.
68. ibid.
69. US Department of Energy, ‘President’s Hydrogen Fuel Initiative’, 2006: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/presidents_initiative.html
70. See, for example, http://www.bakuceyhan.org.uk/
71. Suleiman Abu-Sharkh et al., op. cit. (note 3, above).
72. Greenpeace UK, op. cit. (note 4, above), p. 5.
73. House of Lords Science and Technology Committee, ‘Renewable Energy: Practicalities’, 15 July 2004, Appendix 11: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200304/ldselect/ldsctech/126/12602.htm
74. Suleiman Abu-Sharkh et al., op. cit. (note 3, above), p. 9.
75. House of Lords Select Committee on Science and Technology, op. cit. (note 47, above), para 2.14.
76. Greenpeace UK, op. cit. (note 4, above), p. 28.
77. International Energy Agency, ‘World energy investment outlook’, 2003, cited by Greenpeace, op. cit. (note 4, above), p. 28.
8 A NEW TRANSPORT SYSTEM
1. Faust, line 7118.
2. Ilya Ehrenburg, The Life of the Automobile (Serpent’s Tail, London, 1999 [1929]), p. 175.
3. George Monbiot, Amazon Watershed (Michael Joseph, London, 1991).
4. Stephen Khan, ‘Saboteurs Take Out 700 Speed Cameras’, Observer, 7 September 2003.
5. See the links page at http://www.abd.org.uk/
6. In 1938 Leslie Burgin, the UK Minister of Transport, said ‘the experience of my Department is that the construction of a new road tends to result in a great increase in traffic, not only on the new road but also on the old one which it was built to supersede.’ Quoted by the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment, ‘Trunk Roads and the Generation of Traffic’, Department for Transport, 1994, para 4.10, cited at http://www.cbc.org.nz/Resources/whycars.shtml
7. Quoted by Paul Brown, ‘Prescott Points to Buses in Fast Lane’, Guardian, 6 June 1997.
8. Department for Transport, Transport Statistics Great Britain, 2005, October 2005, p. 121: http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_transstats/documents/downloadable/dft_transstats_609987.pdf
9. Department for Transport, The Future of Transport: Modelling and Analysis, 2005, p. 10: http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_about/documents/downloadable/dft_about_036814.pdf
10. ibid., Figure 3.6, p. 9.
11. Department for Transport 2005, cited by Transport 2000, 2006 – see note 8.
12. ibid.
13. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 9, above), p. 6.
14. Department for Transport, ‘National Travel Survey 2003: Provisional Results’, 2004: http://www.dft.gov.uk/pns/DisplayPN.cgi?pn_id=2004_0103
15. National Travel Survey, cited by Transport 2000, 2006 – see note 8.
16. Department for Transport/Office of National Statistics, 2005, cited by Transport 2000, 2006 – see note 8.
17. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 8, above), p. 15.
18. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 9, above), Table A3, p. 16.
19. ibid., p. 11.
20. Sylviane de Saint-Seine, ‘Cars Won’t make’08 CO2 Goal’, Automotive News, 25 July 2005: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050725/SUB/507250857&SearchID=73238030583873
21. Department for Transport statistics, December 2005, collated by Road Block: http://www.roadblock.org.uk/press_releases/info/TPI%20and%20local%20schemes%20Dec05.xls
22. David Jamieson, transport minister, parliamentary answer, Hansard column 786W, 8 July 2004: http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm200304/cmhansrd/vo040708/text/40708w05.htm
23. Freight on Rail and TRANSform Scotland, submission to the Freight Transport Inquiry by the Local Government and Transport Committee, Scottish Parliament, 2 December 2005: http://www.freightonrail.org.uk/ConsultationsLocalGovernmentandTransport.htm
24. Freight on Rail, ‘Useful Facts and Figures’, 2005: http://www.freightonrail.org.uk/FactsFigures.htm
25. Alan Storkey, ‘A Motorway-based National Coach System’, 2005, available from alan@storkey.com
26. ibid.
27. The Highway Code, cited by Alan Storkey, op. cit. (note 25, above).
28. Alan Storkey, op. cit. (note 25, above).
29. ibid.
30. ibid.
31. ibid.
32. AEA Technology, CAFE CBA: Baseline Analysis 2000 to 2020, April 2005, p. 109. It estimates 39,470 deaths caused by chronic exposure to air pollution, and 1,320 by acute exposure: http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/cafe/activities/pdf/cba_baseline_results_2000_2020.pdf
33. ibid., p. 29.
34. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html
35. Alan Storkey, op. cit. (note 25 above).
36. ibid.
37. Royal Academy of Engineering, ‘Transport 2050: The Route to Sustainable Wealth Creation’, March 2005: http://www.raeng.org.uk/news/publications/list/reports/Transport_2050.pdf
38. Tim Collins MP, Hansard Column 1180, 9 July 2003: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200203/cmhansrd/vo030709/debtext/30709–09.htm
39. Alistair Darling, Secretary of State for Transport, Hansard Column 1181, 9 July 2003: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200203/cmhansrd/vo030709/debtext/30709–09.htm
40. Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, ‘Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management’, US Department of Energy, February 2005, available at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/us/NETL/OilPeaking.pdf
41. HM Treasury, Budget 2006, Chapter 7, p. 17, Chart 7.3: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/20F/1D/bud06_ch7_161.pdf
42. US Environmental Protection Agency, ‘Green Vehicle Guide’, 2006: http://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/all-rank-06.htm
43. Toyota, ‘Toyota Displays Earth-friendly ES3 Concept Car at International Frankfurt Motor Show 2001’, 12 September 2001: http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/news/01/0912.html
44. Peugeot advertisement, ‘A New Number to be Reckoned With’, Daily Telegraph, 20 October 1983, p. 9.
45. US Environmental Protection Agency, op. cit. (note 42, above).
46. Sylviane de Saint-Seine, op. cit. (note 20, above).
47. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, ‘UK New Car Registrations by CO2 Performance’, April 2005: http://lib.smmt.co.uk/articles/sharedfolder/Publications/CO2Report%20New.pdf
48. Jeff Plungis, ‘Engineers Push Fuel Economy to Front Seat at Auto Summit’, Detroit News, 11 April 2005: http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0504/12/A01–146552.htm
49. Detroit News, 4 June 2003, cited by Want to Know, ‘Car Mileage: 1908 Ford Model T – 25mpg; 2004 EPA Average All Cars – 21mpg’, 11 July 2005: http://www.wanttoknow.info/050711carmileageaveragempg
50. US Environmental Protection Agency, op. cit. (note 42, above), SUVs: http://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/suv-06.htm
51. David Johns, quoted in ‘Car Efficiency Figures “Misleading”’, Guardian Unlimited, 26 October 2005: http://money.guardian.co.uk/cars/story/0,11944,1600941,00.html
52. Ann Job, ‘Blame the Feds for Fuel Economy Figures that Don’t Match Real World’, Detroit News, 19 May 2004.
53. anon., ‘Green Machines’, Which?, May 2006.
54. Paul Hawken, Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: The Next Industrial Revolution (Earthscan, London, 1999), pp. 24–32.
55. George W. Bush, ‘President Discusses Biodiesel and Alternative Fuel Sources, Virginia BioDiesel Refinery, West Point, Virginia’, 16 May 2005: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/05/20050516.html
56. White House, FY 2007 Budget, 2006: http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/budget/2007/states/wy.html
57. US House Committee on Energy and Commerce, ‘Energy Policy Act 2005: Summary’, 2006: http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/Facts_Energy_Policy_Act_2005.pdf
58. ‘Directive 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 May 2003 on the Promotion of the Use of Biofuels or Other Renewable Fuels for Transport’, Official Journal of the European Union, 17 May 2005, Article 3, 1b(ii): http://ec.europa.eu/energy/res/legislation/doc/biofuels/en_final.pdf
59. ibid., para 17.
60. British Association for Biofuels and Oils, ‘Memorandum to the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution’, no date: http://www.biodiesel.co.uk/press_release/royal_commission_on_environmenta.htm
61. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 8, above), Table 3.1, p. 50.
62. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Crops for Energy Branch’, 17 November 2004, personal communication.
63. ibid.
64. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, ‘Agriculture in the UK 2003’, 2004: http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/auk/2003/chapter3.pdf
65. Lester R. Brown, The Agricultural Link: How Environmental Deterioration Could Disrupt Economic Progress, Worldwatch Paper 136 (Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC, 1997).
66. Friends of the Earth et al., ‘The Oil for Ape Scandal: How Palm Oil is Threatening Orang-utan Survival’, research report, September 2005, p. 13: http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/oil_for_ape_full.pdf
67. ibid., p. 10.
68. Peter Aldhous, ‘Borneo is Burning’, Nature, Vol. 432 (11 November 2004), pp. 144–6.
69. C S Tan, ‘All Plantation Stocks Rally’, Malaysia Star, 6 October 2005: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/10/6/business/12243819&sec=business
70. David Bassendine, ‘Biofuel: A Self-defeating Policy?’, letter to Michael Fallon MP, 8 February 2006: http://www.tonderai.co.uk/index.php/?p=32
71. For example, Tamimi Omar, ‘Felda to Set Up Largest Biodiesel Plant’, The Edge Daily, 1 December 2005: http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_e5d7c0d9-cb73c03a-df4bfc00-d453633e;
Zaidi Isham Ismail, ‘IOI to Go It Alone on First Biodiesel Plant’, 7 November 2005: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BT/Monday/Frontpage/20051107000223/Article/; anon.,
‘GHope Nine-month Profit Hits RM841mil’, 25 November 2005: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/11/25/business/12693859&; sec=business; anon.,
‘GHope to Invest RM40mil for Biodiesel Plant in Netherlands’, 26 November 2005: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/11/26/business/12704187&sec=business; anon.,
‘Malaysia IOI Eyes Green Energy Expansion in Europe’, 23 November 2005: http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/33622/story.htm
72. Department for Transport, ‘Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) Feasibility Report’, November 2005: http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dftroads/documents/page/dft_roads_610329–01.hcspP. 18_263
73. E4Tech, ECCM and Imperial College, London, ‘Feasibility Study on Certification for a Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation: Final Report’, June 2005.
74. Katharina Kröger, Malcolm Fergusson and Ian Skinner, Critical Issues in Decarbonising Transport: The Role of Technologies, Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 36, October 2003, p. 4: http://tyndall.e-collaboration.co.uk/publications/working_papers/wp36.pdf
75. anon., ‘The Clean Green Energy Dream’, New Scientist Energy Special – Hydrogen, 16 August 2003.
76. In 2005 George Bush reported, ‘We’ve already dedicated $1.2 billion to hydrogen fuel cell research. I’ve asked Congress for an additional $500 million over five years to get hydrogen cars into the dealership lot.’ George W. Bush, op. cit. (note 55, above).
77. National Academy of Engineering, 2004. ‘The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs’, 2004, p. 64: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/64.html
78. anon., op. cit. (note 75, above).
79. Alison Pridmore and Abigail Bristow, The Role of Hydrogen in Powering Road Transport, Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 19, April 2002, p. 8.
80. Paul Hawken, Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins, op. cit. (note 54, above), pp. 26–7.
81. D. R. Blackmore and A. Thomas (eds.), Fuel Economy of the Gasoline Engine (Wiley, New York, 1977), p. 42, cited by Byron Wine: http://byronw.www1host.com
82. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 77, above), p. 4: http://www.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/4.html
83. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 77, above), p. 27: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/27.html
84. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 77, above), p. 37: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/37.html
85. Geoff Dutton et al., The Hydrogen Energy Economy: Its Long-term Role in Greenhouse Gas Reduction, Technical Centre Technical Report No. 18, January 2005, p. 79.
86. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 77, above), p. 119: http://www.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/119.html
87. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 77, above), Table 5.1, p. 46: http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309091632/html/46.html
88. Performance and Innovation Unit, The Energy Review, February 2002, para 5.21: http://www.strategy.gov.uk/downloads/su/energy/TheEnergyReview.pdf
89. Decarbonising the UK – Energy for a Climate Conscious Future (The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2005), p. 77: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/media/news/tyndall_decarbonising_the_uk.pdf
90. National Academy of Engineering, op. cit. (note 77, above), p. 83: http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309091632/html/83.html
91. anon., op. cit. (note 75, above).
92. Lynn Sloman, Car Sick: Solutions for Our Car-addicted Culture (Green Books, Totnes, Devon, 2006).
93. A study in Darlington by Werner Brög, cited by Lynn Sloman, op. cit. (note 92, above), p. 55.
94. Lynn Sloman, op. cit. (note 92, above).
95. Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone (The Stationery Office, London, 1998).
96. S. Cairns et al., Smarter Choices – Changing the Way We Travel, Department for Transport, 2004, Chapter 10 (Teleworking): http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_susttravel/documents/page/dft_susttravel_029753.pdf
97. ibid.
98. ibid.
99. J. Dodgson, J. Pacey and M. Begg, ‘Motors and Modems Revisited: The Role of Technology in Reducing Travel Demands and Traffic Congestion’, report by NERA for the RAC Foundation and the Motorists Forum, 2000, cited by S. Cairns et al., op. cit. (note 96, above).
100. C. Geraghty, 2004. ‘How the Internet Can Help Ease Traffic Congestion’, presentation at British Telecom ‘Alternative Approaches to Congestion’ conference, 26 January 2002, cited by S. Cairns et al., op. cit. (note 96, above).
101. S. Cairns et al., Making Travel Plans Work: Research Report (Department for Transport, London, 2002), cited by S. Cairns et al., Smarter Choices – Changing the Way We Travel, 2004, Chapter 9 (Car-sharing Schemes): http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dftsusttravel/documents/page/dft_sust_travel_029730.pdf
102. ibid.
104. http://www.liftshare.org/stats.asp
9 LOVE MILES
1. Faust, lines 10041–2.
2. E-mail sent by responsibletravel.com, 11 October 2005.
3. http://www.responsibletravel.com/copy/copy100427.htm
4. http://www.responsibletravel.com/Trip/Trip900467.htm
5. http://www.responsibletravel.com/Trip/Trip900445.htm
6. http://www.responsibletravel.com/Trip/Trip100219.htm
7. http://www.responsibletravel.com/TripSearch/Ecotourism/ActivityCategory100020.htm
8. See George Monbiot, No Man’s Land: An Investigative Journey through Kenya and Tanzania (Macmillan, London, 1994; republished by Green Books, Totnes, Devon, 2003).
9. Anita Roddick, ‘Travel that Doesn’t Cost the Earth’, Independent, 20 September 2005.
10. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, ‘The Environmental Effects of Civil Aircraft in Flight: Special Report, 29 November 2002, para 4.38: http://www.rcep.org.uk/aviation/av12-txt.pdf
11. Office of National Statistics and Department for Transport, ‘Car use in GB’, Personal Travel Factsheet No. 7, January 2003, p. 4.
12. Department of Transport, standard constituent letter, 22 December 2005, personal communication.
13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere: Executive Summary, 2001: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/aviation/064.htm
14. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 3.41.
15. For example, Malcolm V. Lowe, ‘The Concorde May be History, but the Dream of Nonmilitary Supersonic Flight Still Lives’, 16 November 2004: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/aviation/1303021.html
16. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 5.28.
17. Department of Trade and Industry, Energy: Its Impact on the Environment and Society, 2005, p. 23: http://www.dti.gov.uk/files/file20263.pdf
18. Office of National Statistics, cited by Paul Brown and Larry Elliott, ‘Air Travel Mars UK’s Green Strategy’, Guardian, 20 May 2005.
19. Office of National Statistics, ‘Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Down since 1990’, 19 May 2005: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=901&Pos=6&ColRank=2&Rank=192
20. Department for Transport, White Paper: ‘The Future of Air Transport’, December 2003, p. 23: http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_aviation/documents/page/dft_aviation_031516.pdf
21. ibid., p. 150.
22. ibid., p. 39.
23. ibid., p. 39.
24. ibid., p. 10.
25. ibid., p. 150.
26. ibid., p. 154.
27. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 2.24.
28. For example, Friends of the Earth, ‘Aviation and the Economy’, May 2005: http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefings/aviation_and_the_economy.pdf
29. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, ‘Environmental Audit – Third Report’, 2004, para 12: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200304/cmselect/cmenvaud/233/23305.htma5
30. ibid., para 13.
31. John Vidal, ‘Heathrow Protesters Seek Help of Direct Action Group’, Guardian, 20 February 2006.
32. Alice Bows, Paul Upham and Kevin Anderson, ‘Growth Scenarios for EU and UK Aviation: Contradictions with Climate Policy’, report for Friends of the Earth Trust Ltd, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, 16 April 2005: http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/aviation_tyndall_research.pdf
33. ibid., pp. 10–11.
34. ibid., p. 12.
35. See Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), paras 4.17–4.35.
36. Alice Bows and Kevin Anderson, ‘Planned Growth in Aviation Contradicts Government Carbon Targets’, Climate Change Management, Vol. 12 (January 2004).
37. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, op. cit. (note 13, above).
38. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 3.41.
39. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 20, above), p. 172.
40. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, op. cit. (note 29, above), para 15.
41. Civil Aviation Authority, 2004, cited by Transport 2000 in ‘Facts and Figures: Aviation’: http://www.transport2000.org.uk
42. MORI poll conducted for Freedom to Fly, January 2002, cited by Friends of the Earth et al., in ‘Aviation: The Plane Truth’: http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/factsheets/aviation_myths.pdf
43. HACAN/Clear Skies, 2005, cited by Transport 2000 in ‘Facts and Figures: Aviation’: http://www.transport2000.org.uk/
44. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 20, above), p. 40.
45. House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, op. cit. (note 29, above), para 49.
46. ACARE, cited by House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, op. cit. (note 29, above).
47. Decarbonising the UK – Energy for a Climate Conscious Future (The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2005), p. 50: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/media/news/tyndall_decarbonising_the_uk.pdf
48. ibid.
49. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 4.21.
50. ibid., paras 3.48 and 4.22.
51. Ulrich Schumann, 27 November 2000. ‘Report on the European Workshop “Aviation, Aerosols, Contrails and Cirrus Clouds” (A2C3), Seeheim near Frankfurt/Main, July 10–12 2000’, 27 November 2000: http://www.aero-net.org/a2c3/a2c3summary.pdf
52. Avions de Transport Régional, ‘The Latest Generation Turboprop: The Green Power of Tomorrow’, no date: http://www.atraircraft.com/downl/The%20green%20power%20of%20tomorrow.pdf
53. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 4.15.
54. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 12, above).
55. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 4.16.
56. ibid., para 4.32.
57. op. cit. (note 47, above), p. 50.
58. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), para 3.43.
59. Bob Saynor, Ausilio Bauen and Matthew Leach, Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, ‘The Potential for Renewable Energy Sources in Aviation’, 7 August 2000, Imperial College, London: http://www.iccept.ic.ac.uk/pdfs/PRESAV%20final%20report%2003Sep03.pdf
60. ibid., p. 20.
61. ibid., p. 23.
62. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, op. cit. (note 10, above), 4.27.
63. ibid., para 3.47.
64. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere: Summary for Policymakers, 2001: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/aviation/010.htm
65. Department for Transport, op. cit. (note 20, above), p. 40.
66. Railway Gazette International, ‘2005 World Speed Survey Tables’, 1 December 2005: http://www.railwaygazette.com/Articles/2005/11/01/1222/2005+World+Speed+Survey+tables.html
67. Central Japan Railway Company, ‘Successful Development of the World’s Highest-performance High-temperature Superconducting Coil’, no date: http://jr-central.co.jp/eng.nsf/english/bulletin/$FILE/vol46-tokai.pdf
68. Railway Gazette International, op. cit. (note 66, above).
69. For example, Martin Wainwright, ‘Hovertrain to Cut London–Glasgow Time to Two Hours’, Guardian, 9 August 2005.
70. UK Ultraspeed, ‘500km/h Ground Transport for Britain’, no date: http://www.500kmh.com/index.html
71. Central Japan Railway Company, ‘Chuo Shinkansen’, no date: http://jr-central.co.jp/eng.nsf/english/chuo_shinkansen
72. anon., ‘Shanghai Maglev Gets Official Nod of Approval’, China Daily, 27 April 2006: http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/166911.htm
73. Eddie Barnes, ‘Scottish Deputy First Minister Backs Glasgow–Edinburgh Link’, Scotland on Sunday, 27 November 2005.
74. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_levitation_train
75. UK Commission for Integrated Transport, ‘High-speedRail: International Comparisons’, 9 February 2004, Figure 4.1, p. 33: http://www.cfit.gov.uk/docs/2004/hsr/research/pdf/chapter4.pdf
76. Roger Kemp, ‘Transport Energy Consumption’, Lancaster University, 10 September 2004: http://www.engineering.lancs.ac.uk/research/download/Transport%20Energy%20Consumption%20Discussion%20Paper.pdf
77. Roger Kemp, ‘Environmental Impact of High-speed Rail’, Institution of Mechanical Engineers, 21 April 2004: http://www.engineering.lancs.ac.uk/research/download/Environmental%20impact.pdf
78. Martin Wainwright, op. cit. (note 69, above).
79. Roger Kemp, op. cit. (note 77, above).
80. http://www.bgtgroup.com/marine_turbine.htm
81. http://www.cunard.com/OnBoard/default.asp?OB=QE2&sub=sp
82. George Marshall, personal communication.
83. ‘Four 8,000 kW diesel engines propelling fewer than 1000 passengers [gives] (at best) 4 x 8000 / (1000x30) = 1kWh/passenger mile. A similar calculation for the London–Edinburgh trains which have around 500 seats and use 3,000kW at 125mph gives 3000 / (500x125) = 0.05kWh/passenger-mile.’ Roger Kemp, personal communication.
84. Tim Thwaites, ‘Slippery Ships Float On Thin Air’, New Scientist, 18 February 2006.
85. http://skysails.info/index.php?L=1
86. Alice Bows, Kevin Anderson and Paul Upham, Contraction and Convergence: UK Carbon Emissions and the Implications for UK Air Traffic, Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 40, February 2006, p. 23: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme2/final_reports/t3_23.pdf
87. Kevin Anderson, personal communication.
89. http://www.planestupid.com
10 VIRTUAL SHOPPING
1. Faust, page 42.
2. George Monbiot, Captive State: The Corporate Takeover of Britain (Macmillan, London, 2000), p. 176.
3. Nigella Lawson, How to Eat (Chatto and Windus, London, 1998), p. 47.
4. Robert Hogg and Henry Graves Bull, The Herefordshire Pomona (Jakeman & Carver, Hereford, 1876).
5. Henry IV, Part 1, Act III, Scene III.
6. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, ‘Biomass as a Renewable Energy Source’, 2004, Table 3.1, p. 38: http://www.rcep.org.uk/biomass/Biomass%20Report.pdf
7. J Sainsbury PLC, ‘Sainsbury’s Breathes Life into Greenwich Peninsula’, press release, 14 September 1999: http://www.j-sainsbury.co.uk/files/reports/er1998/whatsnew.htm
8. ibid.
9. Calls and e-mails from Matthew Prescott to J Sainsbury, 20 December 2005, 29 December 2005 and 9 January 2006.
10. J Sainsbury PLC, op. cit. (note 7, above).
11. ibid.
12. Nick Martin, ‘Can We Harvest Useful Wind Energy from the Roofs of Our Buildings?’, Building for a Future, winter 2005/6, special wind-power feature, Table 2.
13. Department for Transport, ‘Transport Statistics Bulletin’, 2005, Section 7, Table 7.1: http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_transstats/documents/page/dft_trans_stats_039338.pdf
14. ibid., Table 7.2.
15. Greg Palast, The Best Democracy Money Can Buy (Constable and Robinson Ltd, London, 2003), pp. 279–80, 285.
16. Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, A New Deal for Transport: Better for Everyone (The Stationery Office, London, 1998).
17. S. Cairns et al., Smarter Choices – Changing the Way We Travel, Department for Transport, 2004, Chapter 12 (Home Shopping): http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_susttravel/documents/page/dft_susttravel029756.pdf
18. ibid., p. 305.
19. Tesco Customer Services (08457 225533), 6 April 2006, personal communication.
20. http://www.tesco.com/help/page.asp?choiceA=groc&choiceB=5
21. Rob Scott McLeod, ‘Ordinary Portland Cement’, Building for a Future, autumn 2005.
22. Ernst Worrell et al., ‘Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Global Cement Industry’, Annual Review of Energy and Environment. Vol. 26 (2001), pp. 303–29.
23. ibid.
24. David Ireland, ‘The Green House Effect’, Guardian, 5 May 2005.
25. Ernst Worrell et al., op. cit. (note 22, above).
26. Rob Scott McLeod, op. cit. (note 21, above).
27. Fred Pearce, ‘The Concrete Jungle Overheats’, New Scientist, 19 July 1997.
28. David Pocklington, British Cement Association, personal communication.
29. Fred Pearce, op. cit. (note 27, above).
30. Ernst Worrell et al., op. cit. (note 22, above).
31. Jon Gibbins et al., ‘Scope for Future CO2 Emission Reductions from Electricity Generation through the Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies’, paper presented to the ‘Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change’ conference, Meteorological Office, Exeter, 1–3 February 2005.
32. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Working Group III –Mitigation, Section 3.5.3.5: Material Efficiency Improvement: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/109.htm
33. Rob Scott McLeod, op. cit. (note 21, above).
34. Autoclaved Aerated Concrete, ‘The Material Aircrete (Autoclaved Aerated Concrete, AAC) and How to Make It, no date: http://www.pb-aac.de/basemat.html
35. David Olivier, Energy Advisory Associates, letter to Building for a Future, winter 2005/6.
36. Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett and Janet Ramage (eds.), Energy Systems and Sustainability (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003), Box 3.2, p. 106.
37. Portland Cement Association, ‘High Strength Concrete’, no date: http://www.cement.org/basics/concreteproductshistrength.asp
38. D. J. Gielen, ‘Building Materials and CO2: Western European Emission Reduction Strategies’, Netherlands Energy Research Foundation, 1997, p. 55: http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/1997/c97065.pdf
39. ibid.
40. ibid., p. 60.
41. Michael Judge, ‘Our Flexible Friend’, New Scientist, 10 May 1997.
42. Gayle M. B. Hanson, ‘Like a Rock… Only Harder: Process for Making New Building Material’, Insight on the News, 4 August 1997.
43. Michael Judge, op. cit. (note 41, above).
44. Supramics, ‘Better, Cheaper, Faster… and Cleaner’, press release, 21 May 1996: http://www.supramics.com/press/supress1.html
45. Michael Judge, op. cit. (note 41, above).
46. Supramics, op. cit. (note 44, above).
47. Phone conversation with Roger Jones, Supramics, 7 April 2006.
48. Los Alamos National Laboratory, ‘Los Alamos Paves the Way for Better Cement’, 27 January 2007: http://www.supramics.com/press/lanl.html
49. TecEco Pty Ltd, ‘Eco-cement’, no date: http://www.tececo.com/simple.eco-cement.php
50. John Harrison, TecEco, quoted by Fred Pearce, ‘Green Foundations’, New Scientist, 13 July 2002.
51. Benjamin Herring, ‘The Secrets of Roman Concrete’, Constructor, September 2002: http://www.romanconcrete.com/Article1Secrets.pdf
52. Geopolymer Institute, ‘Cements, Concretes, Toxic Wastes, Global Warming’, no date: http://www.geopolymer.org/what_is_a_geopolymer/geopoly_vs_portlandcement.html
53. Zongjin Li, Zhu Ding and Yunsheng Zhang, ‘Development of Sustainable Cementitious Materials’, in Proceedings of the International Workshop on Sustainable Development and Concrete Technology, Beijing, China, May 2004, pp. 55– 76: http://www.cptechcenter.org/publications/sustainable/lisustainable.pdf
54. Rob Scott McLeod, op. cit. (note 21, above).
55. Geopolymer Institute, op. cit. (note 52, above).
56. CSIRO, ‘Geopolymers: Building Blocks of the Future’, no date: http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/standard/ps19e,,.html
57. Zongjin Li, Zhu Ding and Yunsheng Zhang, op. cit. (note 53, above).
11 APOCALYPSE POSTPONED
1. Faust, page 33.
2. David R. Criswell, University of Houston, ‘Lunar Solar Power System: Industrial Research, Development and Demonstration’, World Energy Council 18th Congress, Buenos Aires, October 2001: http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/default/tech_papers/18th_Congress/dsessions/ds2/ds2_17.asp
3. For example, A. Gnanadesikan, J. L. Sarmiento and R. D. Slater, ‘Effects of Patchy Ocean Fertilization on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Biological Production’, Global Biogeochemistry Cycles, Vol. 17 (2003), p. 1050.
4. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, Energy – The Changing Climate, June 2000, para 3.26: http://www.rcep.org.uk/newenergy.htm
5. Marina Murphy, ‘The Wright Wind Scrubbers: First Prototype’, Chemistry and Industry, 5 April 2004: http://www.chemind.org/CI/viewissue.jsp?dateOfIssue=2004–04-05¤tIssue_Type=News&pt=CI
6. Michael Behar, ‘How Earth-scale Engineering Can Save the Planet’, Popular Science, June 2005: http://www.popsci.com/popsci/aviationspace/3afd8ca927d05010vgnvcm1000004eecbccdrcrd/4.html
7. Paul Rincon, ‘Plan to Build emissions scrubber’, BBC News Online, 13 April 2004: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3612739.stm
8. Liz Tilley, Global Research Technologies, 11 April 2006, personal communication.
9. anon., ‘A Mirror to Cool the World’, New Scientist, 27 March 2004.
10. Michael Behar, op. cit. (note 6, above).
11. anon., op. cit. (note 9, above).
12. Kenneth Deffeyes, quoted by Bob Holmes and Nicola Jones, ‘Brace Yourself for the End of Cheap Oil’, New Scientist, 2 August 2003.
13. US Geological Survey, ‘World Petroleum Assessment 2000: Executive Summary’, 2000: http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060
14. Matthew Simmons, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (Wiley, New York, 2005).
15. Energy Intelligence, ‘High Oil Prices: Causes and Consequences’, 2005: http://www.energyintel.com/datahomepage.asp?publication_id=65
16. Jean Laherrere, ‘Is USGS 2000 Assessment Reliable?’, 2 May 2000: http://energyresource2000.com
17. Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling, ‘Peaking Of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management’, US Department of Energy, February 2005, available at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/us/NETL/OilPeaking.pdf
18. John Lothrop Motley, The Rise of the Dutch Republic, 1855, Part 2, Chapter 11, available at http://historicaltextarchive.com/books.php?op=viewbook&bookid=60&cid=11
19. Larry Lohmann, ‘Marketing and Making Carbon Dumps: Commodification, Calculation and Counterfactuals in Climate Change Mitigation’, Science as Culture, Vol. 14 (September 2005), pp. 203–35.
20. See Kevin Smith et al., Hoodwinked in the Hothouse: The G8, Climate Change and Free Market Environmentalism, Transnational Institute Briefing Series, 30 June 2005: http://www.tni.org/reports/ctw/hothouse.pdf
21. Esteve Corbera, ‘Bringing Development into Carbon Forestry Markets: Challenges and Outcomes of Small-scale Carbon Forestry Activities in Mexico’, in D. Murdiyarso and H. Herawati (eds.), Carbon Forestry: Who Will Benefit? (Center for International Forestry Research, Bogor, Indonesia, 2005).
22. Robert B. Jackson et al., 23rd December 2005. ‘Trading Water for Carbon with Biological Carbon Sequestration’, Science, Vol. 310 (23 December 2005), pp. 1944–7.
23. Mark Broadmeadow and Robert Matthews, ‘Forests, Carbon and Climate Change: The UK Contribution’, June 2003, p. 3: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/fcin048.pdf/$FILE/fcin048.pdf
