Notes
1. Charles Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005), 18.
1. Martin Pring, Investment Psychology Explained (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1993), 19.
1. Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Broadway, 2005), 31.
2. Holly Watt and Robert Winnett, “Goldfinger Brown's £2 Billion Blunder in the Bullion Market.” Times Online, April 15, 2007, www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1655001.ece.
3. Clive Maund, “The Gold Bull Market Remembers How Gordon Brown Sold Half of Britains Reserves at the Lowest Price.” Marketoracle.co.uk, April 1, 2007, www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article670.html.
4. Watt and Winnett, “Goldfinger Brown's £2 Billion Blunder.”
5. Doug Short, “The Dollar and Gold: A 20-Year Perspective,” Seeking Alpha, April 25, 2011, seekingalpha.com/article/265165-the-dollar-and-gold-a-20-year-perspective.
6. Watt and Winnett, “Goldfinger Brown's £2 Billion Blunder.”
7. Ibid.
1. Charles Kindelberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005), 29.
2. Carl Futia, The Art of Contrarian Trading (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2009), 41.
3. Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Broadway, 2005), 2.
4. Futia, The Art of Contrarian Trading, 24.
5. Ibid., xii–xiii.
6. Ibid., 41.
7. Ibid., 75.
8. Ibid., 92.
9. Charles Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes.
10. Erste Group Research, “Special Report Gold” (July 2011), 57.
11. Tom Lydon, “ETF Spotlight: SPDR Gold Shares Becomes the Largest ETF,” Seeking Alpha 23, August 2011.
12. Michael Johnston, “GDX vs. GDXJ: A Better Way to Play Gold?,” ETFdb 3, March 2010.
13. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 50.
14. “SPDR Gold Trust Prospectus.” SPDR Gold Trust, May 27, 2010, www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/SPDRGoldTrustProspectus.pdf.
15. Catherine Austin Fitts and Carolyn Betts, “GLD and SLV: Disclosure in the Precious Metals Puzzle Palace,” Solari Special Report (2010), http://solari.com/archive/Precious_Metals_Puzzle_Palace/.
16. Erste Group Research, “Special Report Gold,” 70.
17. Yuriy Humber and Tara Lachapelle, “Hong Kong Canary Singing Commodities Boom Peaking in Aussie Mine: Real M&A,” Bloomberg, April 18, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-17/hong-kong-canary-singing-commodities-boom-peaking-in-aussie-mine-real-m-a.html.
18. “Is Barrick's Bid for Equinox a Warning Sign for Gold Bugs?” CNBC Fast Money, April 26, 2011, www.cnbc.com/id/42759747.
19. Ibid.
20. http://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/10/03/economy-on-the-edge-of-a-nervous-breakdown/
20. Kate Connolly, “Gold Bullion—Coming Soon to a Vending Machine Near You,” Guardian.co.uk, October 21, 2010, www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/21/gold-bullion-vending-machines?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487.
21. Originally published September 12, 2011.
22. Lee Brodie, “‘There May Be a Bubble Occurring,’ Says Rare Resource Chief,” CNBC Fast Money, October 21, 2010, www.cnbc.com/id/39786632/.
23. Drew Sandholm, “Molycorp CEO: No Rare Earth Bubble,” CNBC Fast Money, December 21, 2010, www.cnbc.com/id/40767602/Molycorp_CEO_No_Rare_Earth_Bubble.
24. Ibid.
25. Nigam Arora, “Rare Earth Stocks Poised for a Fall,” Seeking Alpha, February 22, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/254176-rare-earth-stocks-poised-for-a-fall.
26. Luke Belz, “Why Rare Element Resources Is Unlikely to Ever Mine REEs,” Seeking Alpha, February 16, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/253132-why-rare-element-resources-is-unlikely-to-ever-mine-rees.
27. Futia, The Art of Contrarian Trading, 48.
28. Ibid., page 56.
29. A. J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, 10th ed. (Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 2005), 173.
30. Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, 4.
31. http://seekingalpha.com/article/238208-why-inflation-isn-t-affecting-gold-prices.
32. Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, 4.
33. http://seekingalpha.com/article/260900-the-impending-collapse-of-the-gold-bubble.
34. Data from Goldinmind.com.
1. Robert R. Prechter Jr., Robert Prechter on Gold & Silver (Elliott Wave International, 2009), 15.
2. Ibid., 23.
3. Ibid., 28.
1. Yoni Jacobs, Unsafe Haven: The Impending Collpase of the Gold Bubble (New York: CP Publishing, 2011).
2. http://canadianfinanceblog.com/is-the-current-marketa-return-to-normal.
3. Quoted in A. J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave Principle, 10th ed. (Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 2005), 207.
4. A. J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, 10th ed. (Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 2005), 21.
5. Ibid., 129.
6. Ibid., 129.
7. Ibid., 86.
8. Ibid., 51.
9. Ibid., 52.
10. Ibid., 34.
11. Ibid., 173.
12. Ibid., 40.
13. Ibid., 173.
14. Ibid., 78.
15. Ibid., 86.
16. Ibid., 68.
17. Frank Holmes, “Ready, Set, Gold: The Best Months Are Just Ahead,” Seeking Alpha, August 9, 2010, http://seekingalpha.com/article/219614-ready-set-gold-the-best-months-are-just-ahead.
1. Bespoke Investment Group, “Short Interest Declines to Lowest Levels since 2007,” Seeking Alpha, December 28, 2010, http://seekingalpha.com/article/243887-short-interest-declines-to-lowest-levels-since-2007.
2. http://seekingalpha.com/article/257685-what-can-the-great-depression-teach-us-about-our-great-recession.
3. http://seekingalpha.com/article/285061-has-the-500-point-drop-confirmed-a-great-depression-2-0.
4. http://seekingalpha.com/article/231981-stocks-approaching-major-long-term-resistance-is-a-reversal-imminent.
5. http://seekingalpha.com/article/264049-sector-rotation-how-energyand-consumer-staples-may-reveal-a-contraction.
6. http://seekingalpha.com/article/300500-are-etfs-toblame-for-over-speculation-record-correlations-and-a-potential-crash.
7. www.calculatedriskblog.com.
8. Global ETF Research and Implementation Strategy Team, Blackrock.
9. Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 2nd ed. (New York: Broadway, 2005), 50.
10. Ibid.
11. http://seekingalpha.com/article/278502-skyy-what-s-in-the-cloud-smaller-stocks-that-pack-a-lot-of-punch.
12. Schiller, 30.
13. http://seekingalpha.com/article/265369-dollardemise-looks-overblown-betting-on-a-short-term-bounce-or-mediumterm-recovery.
14. www.youtube.com/watch?v¼ZVfIl39ascQ.
15. http://politicalmetals.com/2011/05/27/chinese-gold/.
16. Ibid.
17. Ibid., 30.
18. Kevin Yao, “Analysis: China May Lean on Rate Rises to Fight Inflation,” Fox Business, July 12, 2011, www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/07/12/analysis-china-may-lean-on-rate-rises-to-fight-inflation/.
19. Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005), p. 64.
20. “China New Loans, Money Supply Growth Rebound Even after Cooling Measures,” Bloomberg, July 12, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-12/china-new-loans-money-supply-growth-rebound-even-after-cooling-measures.html.
21. Mark Whitehouse, “Number of the Week: Foreign Banks Bet on China,” Real Time Economics, May 14, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/05/14/number-of-the-week-foreign-banks-bet-on-china/.
22. “Off-Balance-Sheet Loans Double, Boosting Bank Default Risk: China Credit.” Bloomberg, June 23, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-23/off-balance-sheet-loans-double-boosting-bank-default-risk-china-credit.html.
23. “Off-Balance-Sheet Loans Double, Boosting Bank Default Risk.”
24. Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005), 25.
25. Steven J. Kaplan, “Why Investors Need to Reexamine These Emerging Market Myths.,” Seeking Alpha, March 7, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/256695-why-investors-need-to-reexamine-these-emerging-market-myths.
26. Dexter Roberts, “Preparing for the (Possible) China Crash,” BusinessWeek, July 14, 2011, www.businessweek.com/magazine/preparing-for-the-possible-china-crash-07142011.html.
28. Manuela Badawy and Jennifer Ablan, “Monstrous Risks Seen in Emerging Markets,” Reuters, June 9, 2011, http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/09/monstrous-risks-seen-in-emerging-markets/.
29. Roberts, “Preparing for the (Possible) China Crash.”
30. Cullen Roche, “China's July PMI: Definite Economic Contraction Underway,” Seeking Alpha, July 21, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/280698-china-s-july-pmi-definite-economic-contraction-underway.
31. www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-13/china-trade-surplus-drops-to-lowest-in-four-months-as-export-growth-slows.html.
32. Tom Orlik, “Prepare for an Attack of the China Bears,” Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304520804576344542708300046.html?mod=WSJ_newsreel_markets.
33. Roberts, “Preparing for the (Possible) China Crash.”
34. Frederik Balfour, “Walter Kwok Says Hong Kong Home Prices Have Peaked, May Drop 15% This Year,” Bloomberg, June 20, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/walter-kwok-says-hong-kong-home-prices-have-peaked-may-drop-15-this-year.html.
35. Andrew Barber, “Is the Chinese Bubble Ready to Burst?,” Institutional Investor, June 29, 2011, www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/2856797/Is-The-Chinese-Bubble-Ready-To-Burst.html?ArticleId=2856797.
36. “The Ghost Towns of China: Amazing Satellite Images Show Cities Meant to Be Home to Millions Lying Deserted,” Daily Mail Reporter, December 18, 2010, httpwww.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html.
37. Barber, “Is the Chinese Bubble Ready to Burst?”
38. Ibid.
39. www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-10/08/content_13851248.htm.
40. Author of Boombustology, quoted in Andrew Barber, “Is the Chinese Bubble Ready to Burst?” Institutional Investor, June 29, 2011.
41. Barber, “Is the Chinese Bubble Ready to Burst?”
42. Ibid.
43. Martin Pring, Investment Psychology Explained (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1993), 116.
44. Stephen Gandel, “China's Latest Export: Stock Fraud,” The Curious Capitalist, June 14, 2011, http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/06/14/chinas-latest-export-stock-fraud/.
45. Bespoke Investment Group, “Brazil's Bovespa Enters Bear Market Territory,” Seeking Alpha, August 2, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/284073-brazil-s-bovespa-enters-bear-market-territory.
46. http://seekingalpha.com/article/276516-egyptian-stock-market-bodes-poorly-for-middle-east.
47. http://seekingalpha.com/article/248356-housingbubble-in-israel.
1. http://seekingalpha.com/article/268995-mining-stocks-signaling-reversals-in-gold-andsilver-prices.
2. Erste Group Research, “Special Report Gold” (July 2011), 83.
3. Jon Hilsenrath. “Bernanke Puzzled by Gold Rally,” Real Time Economics, Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2010, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/06/09/bernanke-puzzled-by-gold-rally/
4. Charles Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005), 92.
5. Ibid.
6. Charles Kadlec, “The Dollar, Gold, and the Quality of Money,” Forbes, July 18, 2011, http://blogs.forbes.com/charleskadlec/2011/07/18/the-dollar-gold-and-the-quality-of-money/.
7. Ben Stein, “Warren Buffett: Forget Gold, Buy Stocks.” Fortune, October 19, 2010, http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm.
8. Nicholas Larkin and Pham-Duy Nguyen, “Soros Sells Most of Gold ETP Holdings during First Quarter,” Bloomberg, May 16, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/soros-sold-most-of-his-gold-etp-holding-during-first-quarter-filing-shows.html.
9. http://seekingalpha.com/article/278169-gold-and-silver-interest-what-options-are-telling-us.
10. http://seekingalpha.com/article/251156-is-the-commodity-run-up-about-to-reverse-course.
11. A. J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, 10th ed. (Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 2005), 37.
12. http://seekingalpha.com/article/299097-copper-and-oil-signal-recessionbut-battered-japan-may-outperform.
13. http://seekingalpha.com/article/268866-commodities-still-a-bubble-but-prices-maycontinue-to-rise.
1. “Platinum to Gold Ratio and Detecting Bubbles,” June 21, 2011, http://profitimes.com/free-articles/platinum-to-gold-ratio-and-detecting-bubbles/.
2. Originally published as “Forget Gold, Buy Diamonds,” Seeking Alpha, December 1, 2010, http://seekingalpha.com/article/239445-forget-gold-buy-diamonds.
3. http://seekingalpha.com/article/265715-playing-a-housing-recovery-buy-physical-property-or-invest-in-stocks.
1. Originally published as “Cloud 9 Computing: Sign of a Renewed Technology Bubble?, Seeking Alpha, December 15, 2010, http://seekingalpha.com/article/241963-cloud-9-computing-sign-of-a-renewed-technology-bubble.
2. Originally published as “Betting against Facebook,” Seeking Alpha, January 6, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/245157-betting-against-facebook.
3. “Privacy Policy,” Facebook, December 22, 2010, www.facebook.com/policy.php.
4. Originally published as “Is IPO Mania Warning of a Tech Bubble 2.0?,” Seeking Alpha, June 15, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/274967-is-ipo-mania-warning-of-a-tech-bubble-2-0.
5. Matt Rosoff, “Facebook Is Losing Users in the Countries Where It Took Off First,” Business Insider (June 13, 2011), www.businessinsider.com/facebook-is-losing-users-in-the-countries-where-it-took-off-first-2011-6.
6. Originally published as “Netflix: Setting Up for Disaster,” Seeking Alpha, May 18, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/270618-netflix-setting-up-for-disaster.
7. Yoni Jacobs, “Why It May Finally Be Time to Short Netflix,” Seeking Alpha, February 21, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/254066-why-it-may-finally-be-time-to-short-netflix.
8. Ben Fritz, “Redbox Digital Service Will Go Toe-to-Toe with Netflix,” Los Angeles Times, February 16, 2011, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/02/redbox-digital-service-will-compete-directly-with-netflix.html.
9. Andrew Wallenstein, “What Worries Netflix about Amazon Isn't Just Competition,” Paid Content, February 21, 2011, http://paidcontent.org/article/419-what-worries-netflix-about-amazon-isnt-just-competition/.
10. “Market Currents,” Seeking Alpha March 8, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/70431.
11. Tyler Durden, “Goldman Issues Netflix Update: Sees Facebook as a ‘Credible Threat,’” Zero Hedge, March 8, 2011, www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-issues-netflix-pt-200-update-sees-facebook-credible-threat.
12. “Market Currents,” Seeking Alpha, April 6, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/72797.
13. Salar Kamangar,“Welcome to the Future of Video. Please Stay a While,” YouTube-Global, May 9, 2011, http://youtube-global.blogspot.com/2011/05/welcome-to-future-of-video-please-stay.html.
14. Matt Phillips, “Google YouTube Overhaul: ‘Significant Threat’ to Netflix,” MarketBeat, Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/04/08/google-youtube-overhaul-significant-threat-to-netflix.
15. Shira Ovide, “Netflix: Yes, Blockbuster Is Coming After Us,” Deal Journal, Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/04/25/netflix-yes-blockbuster-is-coming-after-us/.
16. Ben Fritz, “Netflix's Days without Competition May Be Numbered,” Los Angeles Times, April 23, 2011, www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-netflix-20110423,0,3960771.story.
17. Matt Phillips, “Netflix Lookout!: Apple to Launch ‘Assault on Living Room,’ Analyst Says.” MarketBeat, Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/04/12/netflix-lookout-apple-to-launch-assault-on-living-room-analyst-says/.
18. Whitney Tilson, “Why We're Short Netflix,” Seeking Alpha, December 16, 2010, http://seekingalpha.com/article/242320-whitney-tilson-why-we-re-short-netflix>.
19. “Netflix Releases First Quarter 2011 Financial Results,” Seeking Alpha, http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/971831-netflix-releases-first-quarter-2011-financial-results.
20. http://seekingalpha.com/article/270103-digging-into-netflix-s-cost-of-subscription-part-1.
21. Matt Phillips, “Goldman on Netflix: Content Producers to ‘Flex Their Muscles,’” MarketBeat, Wall Street Journal, March 25, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/25/goldman-on-netflix-content-producers-to-flex-their-muscles/.
22. Herb Greenberg, “The Last Short Standing in Netflix,” CNBC Stock Blog, February 11, 2011, www.cnbc.com/id/41535093.
23. Jacobs, “Why It May Finally Be Time to Short Netflix,” Seeking Alpha, February 21, 2011.
24. “Insider Filings—Reed Hastings,” Yahoo! Finance, http://biz.yahoo.com/t/22/382.html, May 17, 2011.
25. Originally published as “How I Predicted Netflix's Fall, and Why Its Prospects Are Getting Worse,” Seeking Alpha, September 19, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/294587-how-i-predicted-netflix-s-fall-and-why-its-prospects-are-getting-worse.
26. “Is It Time to Short Netflix?” www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-is-it-time-to-short-netflix/article2032415/, May 24, 2011.
27. Originally published as “Will Netflix Disappear?” Seeking Alpha, October 24, 2011, http://seekingalpha.com/article/301709-will-netflix-disappear.
1. Humphrey B. Neill, The Art of Contrary Thinking (Caldwell, ID: Caxton Printers, 1954).