List of Illustrations _____________________________________________________________

Figure 1.1

Campaign Contact by Voter Registration, 1952–2004

14

Figure 3.1

Cross-pressured Partisans, 1972–2004

71

Figure 3.2

Cross-pressures on Specific Policy Issues, 1972–2004

72

Figure 3.3

Religious Cleavages in Party Coalitions, 2004

75

Figure 3.4

Economic Cleavages in Party Coalitions, 2004

76

Figure 3.5

Racial Cleavages in Party Coalitions, 2004

77

Figure 4.1

Defection by Policy Cross-pressures, 2000 and 2004

84

Figure 4.2

Campaign Exposure and Impact of Cross-pressures on Predicted Probability of Defection, 2004

91

Figure 4.3

Campaign Exposure and Impact of Cross-pressures on Predicted Probability of Defection, 2000

92

Figure 4.4

Change over Time in Impact of Cross-pressures and Strength of Partisanship on Predicted Probability of Defection, 2000

95

Figure 4.5

Effect of Cross-pressures on Predicted Probability of Vote Transition following Campaign Events

99

Figure 4.6

Effect of Cross-pressures on Predicted Probability of Defection following Campaign Events

100

Figure 4.7

Cross-pressured Partisans More Persuadable in Survey Experiment

103

Figure 5.1

Effect of Racial Cross-pressures on Predicted Probability of Defection, 1960 and 1968

128

Figure 5.2

Attitudes toward School Busing in 1972 and 1976

135

Figure 5.3

Effect of Racial Cross-pressures on Predicted Probability of Defection, 1972 and 1976

137

Figure 5.4

Racial and Moral Issues as Percentage of Campaign News Coverage

141

Figure 5.5

Effect of Racial and Moral Cross-pressures on the Predicted Probability of Defection, 1964–2004

142

Figure 6.1

Growth in the Policy Position Taking of Presidential Candidates, 1948–2004

148

Figure 6.2

Voter Information and Party Contact in 2004

167

Figure 6.3

Targeted Issues as a Percentage of Mail Received

176