Index _____________________________________________________________
Note: Campaigns are listed by year prior to the main index.
1828 campaign: 154
1840 campaign: 155
1948 campaign: 111–13, 151, 154
1960 campaign: civil rights issues and, 16–17, 107–8, 114–16; cross-pressures and policy incongruence during, 126–30; election results of, 82; Kennedy’s strategy during, 116; Nixon’s strategy during, 114–16; “southern strategy” during, 107–8, 109, 114–16
1964 campaign: 157
1968 campaign: 118
1972 campaign: civil rights issues during, 130–36, 143; Nixon’s shift from
1968 positions and, 120–24; “southern strategy” during, 109, 120–24; wedge issues during, 130–36
1976 campaign: persuadable “swing” voters as focus of, 11; targeted appeals during, 151–52, 155; wedge issues during, 38, 44–45, 130–36
1984 campaign: defection of blue collar Democrats during, 82; “southern strategy” and, 139–41; television advertising strategy during, 162
1988 campaign: 138, 140, 156–57
2000 campaign: base mobilization during, 42; defection and election results of, 89; “ground war” tactics during, 158–59, 162–63; information technology and, 153; measuring impact of cross-pressure during, 101; vote choice analysis of, 86–91; vote volatility during, 98; wedge issues in, 2, 141
2004 campaign: Christian conservatives and agenda of, 187–92; convention and agenda of, 1–3, 97; direct mail as tool in, 6, 76, 147, 166–73, 168, 197–98; election outcomes of, 8–9, 93–94; “ground war” and voter contact during, 159–60, 162; issue salience in, 14, 187–88, 190; moral issues as wedge issues during, 1–3, 97, 168, 185, 188–90; Party contact during, 167; targeted appeals used during, 3, 6, 12–13, 173, 174, 176; television as tool in, 9, 11; voter information and, 150–51, 167, 189; wedge issues during, 1–3, 8, 10, 161, 185, 187–89
abortion: as appeal partisan base, 164, 175, 189, 191; as appeal to persuadable voters, 161; direct mail and, 168, 169; geotargeting and, 156–57; Hispanic voters and, 169; policy questions for Blair Center Survey, 207; as wedge issue, 2, 3, 74, 139–41, 144, 161, 193–94
accountability: democracy and, 179, 186, 189, 200; direct mail and, 197–98, 199; media, 200; microtargeting and, 179
advertising. See specific media
affirmative action, 120, 139; policy incongruence and, 60, 76–77, 129; survey questions on, 206, 209
African American voters: coalitions and, 111–12; moral issues as appeal to, 140–41; as persuadable voters, 139; targeted appeals to, 115, 163
AIDS research, 40
alienation of voters: appeals to base and, 138; as calculated risk, 11, 21, 45–47, 118, 133–34, 138–39, 144, 146; civil rights issues and, 112, 138–39; flip-flops or waffling on policy and, 145–46; polarization and, 182; racial issues and, 138–39; turnout and, 117
Allen, George, 199
ambivalence, 15, 27–28, 31–33, 84
American National Election Studies (NES), 13, 54, 58, 65, 70, 125, 129–30, 173–74, 211–13
Applebee’s America (Dowd, Fournier and Sosnick), 150–51
Armitage, Christopher, 84
awareness, political: and defection, 92–93; defined and described, 69n39; measurement of, 89, 101; policy incongruence and, 64, 66, 71; policy preferences and, 33; technology and, 199
Bailey, Deardourff, and Eyre, Inc., 133
bandwagon phenomenon, 43
base. See partisan base
“battleground” states, 88n17; in 1960 election, 116; in 1976 campaign, 132; in 2004 election, 94, 150–51, 165; campaign contact in, 88–89, 150–51, 165–66; campaign effects in, 8, 90, 91–94, 101, 197; campaign resources concentrated on, 11, 13–14, 69–70, 88, 91–92, 150–51, 164–66; direct mail appeals to voters in, 165–66; microtargeting in, 190, 197; political inequality as result of focus on, 11, 186–87; television advertising concentrated in, 164–65
Bible, party affiliation and perceptions of the, 75
Blair Center Election Survey, 205–8; campaign exposure data from, 91; cross-pressure data from, 56, 59–61, 63, 66, 69, 75–77, 88, 91, 102n40; defection data from, 88, 91; instrument design of, 54, 57; moral issue data from, 75, 77, 102n40; open-ended responses from, 51, 57, 60, 63; racial data from, 77; socioeconomic level data from, 76
broadcast media: audience demographics and targeted appeals by, 155–56, 162–65, 169; consensual issues as content in, 169; vs. direct mail, 163, 169; moderation of campaign message in, 153–54; television, 47, 154
Buchanan, Patrick, 123, 130, 145
Burden, Barry, 40
Bush, George H. W., 24n16; campaign promises and, 145–46, 150; campaign strategies and, 156–57, 165
Bush, George W.: appeals to African American voters by, 140–41; appeals to base by, 173, 177, 178; campaign strategies of, 40, 42, 150–51, 160–61, 164, 165, 169, 175–78, 181; consensual issues and, 181; direct mail appeals by, 167–68, 175–76, 181; moral wedge issues and policy of, 1–3, 187–92; offensive stance on wedge issues and, 176–77; as polarizing, 182; “political capital” and “mandate” of, 189–90; symbolic communication in campaign messages of, 33; television advertising by, 9, 164n61, 169
campaign agendas: base as audience for, 44, 170; candidate’s role in setting, 147–48, 150; constraints on, 37–38; as “dog whistle politics,” 6; issue selection and, 147–48, 150; media as influence on, 148; as mobilization of base, 170–72; persuadable voters as audience for, 11, 12–13, 35–36, 116, 123, 131–32, 136, 170–72; policy agendas as distinct from, 41, 146, 190; “positional” issues and, 148–49; rational choice and development of centrist, 39, 152; “southern strategy” and, 116, 123–24, 131–32, 134. See also campaign strategies
Campaign Communication Study (CCS), 173–75, 214–15; appeal type data from, 171, 174; battleground state data from, 166; direct mail data from, 58–59, 69, 168–69, 174; issue dialogue data from, 168; wedge issue content data from, 169
campaign contact: battleground states and, 88–89, 150–51, 165–66; campaign effects of, 159–60; and “ground war” campaign strategies, 159–60; information environment and changes in, 152, 160, 165–66, 179; neglect of core or base, 175; persuadable voters and, 165, 173, 174–75, 179; political inequalities and, 179; swing voters and, 165, 173, 179; targeting of, 13–14, 167, 175; television contrasted with, 159, 162–63, 182; voter information and, 167. See also direct mail
campaign dialogue: changes of across elections, 128–29; defection and exposure to, 10, 83, 90, 93, 183–84; in direct mail, 166–70; fragmentation of, 13, 147, 188–89, 201; information environment and, 108; message receptivity and, 93; as multi-issue, 104; as parallel rather than oppositional, 41; policy preference influenced by, 52; promises in, 145–46, 150, 188–91, 192; targeted strategies and, 170; wedge issues in, 29, 144, 166–70
campaign effects, 9, 15–16, 34–35, 185; in “battleground” states, 8, 90, 91–94, 92, 101, 197; of conventions, 95–99; cross-pressured voters and, 21, 82–83, 86, 104; of debates, 95–99; defection linked to, 10, 21–22, 35, 83, 89–94, 98, 100, 101–3, 105, 108, 128–29; direct mail as an electoral advantage, 182; as inconsequential, 9, 22; on Independents, 82–83; measurement of, 34–35, 83, 85–99, 101–4; mobilization and persuasion as simultaneous, 170; of partisan contact, 136, 159–60; political psychology research and, 21; temporal analysis of, 94–99; of wedge campaign strategies, 8, 103n43, 125, 181
campaign exposure: decision-making process and, 53, 57; defection linked to, 10, 21–22, 35, 89–94, 98, 100, 101–3, 105, 108, 128–29, 183–84; measurement of, 35, 88–90, 93, 97
campaigns: as candidate-centered, 136, 181; contact during, 167; conventions as part of, 96–97; debates as part of, 97; definition of, 34; democracy and role of, 13, 184–86; as focus of research, 7–10; implicit or symbolic messages of, 33, 110; as inconsequential in vote choice, 9, 22; information and decision-making process during, 4–7; learning during, 30–31, 84–85, 95, 98; lower-level races (gubernatorial and Senate) of, 193–95; media agendas as strategic, 133; as multi-issue, 104; partisan loyalties and, 9–10; personal appearances by candidates during, 165; persuadable voters as focus of, 9–10; policy agendas as tools in, 10–11; predispositions prioritized in context of, 9, 22, 185; as reciprocal relationships, 4–7, 15, 46, 136, 143, 179–80, 184–86; spending on, 11; volume of, 9. See also campaign exposure; campaign strategies; specific years at beginning of index
campaign strategies, 15; as balanced appeal to both base and Independents, 150; as candidate-centered, 40–42, 147–48; commercial marketing as influence on, 155; “ground war” tactics, 159–60; information environment as context for, 45–47; issue activation and, 147–48; issue agendas as element of, 40, 44–45, 147–50, 181; issue avoidance as strategic, 55, 134, 146, 149, 154; median voter strategy, 39–40; mobilization of partisan base, 3, 9, 42–45, 91, 149, 170–72, 177; policy-based appeals, 33, 145–46; as policy driven, 40–42; primaries as context for, 42–43; priming as part of, 23, 46, 147–48, 184; rational choice theory and, 39; in stump speeches, 154; theory of wedge, 35–48; value-based appeals, 33; voters strategically ignored in, 166. See also wedge campaign strategies
Campbell, James, 9
candidates: control of message by, 96, 181; electability of, 43, 118–19; incentives for behavior of, 5, 16, 38, 149–50, 161, 179; information environment and behavior of, 16, 181; issue avoidance by, 134, 146, 149, 154; microtargeting and, 47; policy agenda setting by, 146–47; policy-driven, 40–42
canvassing, 3, 46, 88, 156, 159, 170
Catholic vote, 2
CCS. See Campaign Communication Study (CCS)
Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 48, 58–59
centrism: appeals to base and rejection of, 149; appeals to moderate voters, 10, 153–54, 178; microtargeting and rejection of, 178–88; primaries linked to, 43; radio and campaign message moderation, 153–54; rational choice theory and, 39, 152; as strategic, 39–40; and voters perceived as moderate or neutral, 61, 73; wedge issues and increased polarization versus, 152. See also polarization
civil rights, 16–17; African American swing voters and, 115; alienation of voters and, 112, 138–39; issue ownership and, 110–13; issue salience of, 112–13; movement, 125–26; Nixon and, 107–8, 114-16, 118–24, 130; Republican “southern strategy” and, 107–8, 110, 114–16; as wedge issue, 82
Civil Rights Act (1957), 115, 118
Clinton, Hillary, 199
Clinton, William J. “Bill,” 12–13, 142, 164–66, 185–86, 187
coalitions, 4, 10; African American voters as bloc in, 111–12; culture wars as indicative of cleavages within, 80; direct mail appeals and strategies of, 172–73; as diverse or heterogeneous, 78–79, 186; moral issues and formation of, 139; persuadable voters as component of, 44–45, 183; policy incongruence and, 73–79; political inequality and, 11, 186–87; political parties as, 27, 73, 154, 193–94; presidential leadership and “coalition of minorities,” 191; shifts in campaign strategy linked to fluidity of, 137–38; “southern strategy” and, 143; two-party system and, 50–51, 193–94; wedge issues and, 36–37, 151, 183–84, 186, 188
Coleman, Norm, 40
commercial marketing, 160
conflict, democracy and, 27–28
conflicted voters. See cross-pressured voters
congruent partisan voters, 20
Conner, Mark, 84
consensual issues, 148n10, 169, 180–81
conventions, 95–99, 100, 112, 115, 116; 1988 Republican, 145–46; 2004 Democratic, 1–2, 14; 2004 Republican, 164; as context for policy platform development, 126–27, 145–46
Counterattack Sourcebook (Kennedy campaign), 116
Craig, Larry, 102n39
crime as issue, 110, 125n57, 133, 138, 140, 144
cross-pressured voters: ambivalent voters contrasted with, 32–33; campaign effects on, 21, 82–83, 104; campaign events as influence on, 98–99; cognitive dissonance and, 27; competition for, 173; conflicting predispositions and, 19, 32–33; contact with during campaigns, 174–75; conventions and, 96–97; decision-making process of, 85–86; defection probability and, 61n25, 64n33, 83–91, 96, 100–102, 105, 127–28, 135–37, 142; identification and classification of voters as, 55–56; Independents as, 85; indifferent voters contrasted with, 29–30; individual psychology as aspect of, 31; as information seeking, 21, 85, 90, 92–93, 103; measuring impact on, 55–56, 66, 70, 73–74, 79–80, 101, 126, 134, 141–43; as persuadable, 3, 5, 18, 21, 83–86, 92–93, 103, 149, 177–78; pluralism as context for, 73; policy preferences and, 26, 52; sociological perspective on, 28; turnout by, 19, 102n41; vote choice volatility and, 94, 98; wedge issues as appeal to, 162. See also policy incongruence
cultural issues. See moral issues
culture wars, 49–50; policy incongruence and, 79–81; and wedge campaign strategy, 51
Daudt, H., 185
debates, 2, 95–99, 100, 107, 148, 189; as campaign events, 145–46, 153
decision making, 15; campaign as context for, 83, 91, 94; campaign exposure and, 53, 57, 91; candidate strategy and, 143; cognitive dissonance and, 104–5; conventions and, 96–97; cross-pressured voters and information seeking, 21, 84, 90, 92–93, 103; debates and, 97; distinct policy differences and, 129; information and, 19; message receptivity and, 21, 92–93, 103, 104–5; party affiliation and, 4, 80, 95; policy preferences and, 95; predispositions as context for, 19, 95; during primaries, 43; and “spillover” effect of wedge issue activation, 103n43; vote volatility and, 25, 30, 85–90, 87, 98
defection: “battleground” states and, 91; of blue-collar Democrats, 82; campaign exposure and, 10, 21–22, 35, 89–94, 98, 100, 101–3, 105, 108, 128–29, 183–84; cross-pressure and probability of, 61n25, 64n33, 83–92, 96, 100–103, 105, 127–28, 135–37, 142; direct mail appeals and explicit encouragement of, 176; Eisenhower and, 45; election impacts of, 8, 88, 93; estimates of, 93–94; party realignment research and, 80–81, 137; policy incongruence and, 80–81, 95, 103n42, 112–13, 117–18, 125, 126–28, 185; policy preferences and, 94–95; prediction of, 86–88, 92, 93, 101–3; realignment following, 137; “southern strategy” linked to, 112–13, 123; “spillover” and, 103n43; strength of partisan affiliation and likelihood of, 89, 95, 96, 127; voter ignorance and, 89; wedge issue salience and, 21, 80–81, 104, 112–13, 184
democracy: accountability and, 186, 189, 200; “Americanized” politics in other democratic nations, 195–97; campaign strategies and impact on, 13–15, 170, 178–81, 184–87; centrism and, 178; conflict and ambivalence as critical to, 27–28; microtargeting as beneficial for, 178–79
Democratic Party. See parties, political
demographics: broadcast media and audience, 162–65; policy preferences and, 74; as predictor of issue importance for voters, 54–55; swing voters and group, 18, 31; targeted appeals and, 162–65
Dent, Harry S., 117, 119, 122, 123, 138
direct mail, 3, 6, 12; accountability and, 197–98, 199; analysis of, 47; costs of, 162, 165–66, 168, 170, 197–98; electoral advantage of, 182; fundraising and volunteer appeals in, 157, 171; general campaign issues included in, 167, 169–70, 173, 174; as GOTV appeals, 170; Independents as focus of appeals in, 173; as innovation, 157; issue content in, 147, 166–73, 174, 176, 188, 190, 197–98; method for analysis of, 7, 15, 147, 162–64, 166–78, 171; mobilization appeals in, 170–72; party affiliation omitted in, 172; racial or ethnic personalization of, 155; risks of using, 197; role of in microtargeted campaign strategy, 151; sensational or inflammatory content in, 197–98; television contrasted with, 154, 159, 162–64; voter response to, 197–98; wedge issues in, 147, 167–73, 188, 190
Divided Democrats (Mayer), 78
Dobson, James C., 192
Dole, Robert, 27
Dukakis, Michael, 140, 156, 163–64
Dunne, Finley Peter, 78
Duval, Michael, 132
economic issues: as consensual, 131, 138; cross-pressures and, 60, 75–76; deficit, 145; minimum wage, 2, 46–47, 167; salience of, 133, 134, 167; “southern strategy” and, 110; as wedge issues, 2, 36–37, 145–46
economics, survey questions on, 206
Edsall, Thomas, 178
education, survey questions on, 206
education issues: ambiguous survey results on, 54; busing, 120, 130–36, 140n99; as consensual, 180–81; salience of, 167; school desegregation, 120; school prayer as wedge issue, 140, 144; school vouchers, 141, 144
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 113–14, 117, 119–20, 156
electability of candidates, 43, 118–19
elections: defection and impacts on, 8, 88, 93; policy preferences expressed through, 13, 183; vote choice within, 22
electoral college, 11
email as campaign tool, 3, 12, 46, 58–59, 151, 153, 160, 161, 163
Emerging Republican Majority, The (Phillips), 121–22
environmental issues, 14, 22, 38, 133, 163, 167; policy questions for Blair Center Survey, 207
Fenno, Richard, 54
Fiorina, Morris, 26, 30–31, 152
flip-flopping or waffling on policy, 121, 145–46
Focus on the Family, 192
Ford, Gerald, 11, 38, 44–45, 131–36, 143, 151–52, 155
foreign policy, policy incongruence and, 60
fragmentation, 6, 47; of campaign dialogue, 13, 147, 188–89, 201; of media in information environment, 34, 155, 181
Franz, Bill, 123
fundraising, direct mail appeal and, 171, 172
Gardner, Mickey, 123
gay rights issues, 2, 74, 165, 168, 191, 192; as appeal to core, 175; direct mail and, 169; Log Cabin Republicans as cross-pressured voters on, 21; survey questions on, 206, 209
Glaeser, Ed, 153
Goldberg, Jonah, 36
Goldwater, Barry, 114, 117, 157
Great Depression, as context, 11
“ground war” activities. See direct mail; microtargeting
Guliver, Hal, 119
gun control, 140, 156–57, 163–64; survey questions on, 206, 209
Hacker, Jacob, 149
Haldeman, H. R., 122
Hamburger, Tom, 12
Harper, Ben, 30
Hart, Peter, 1
health care and health insurance, 60, 72, 76, 167; survey questions on, 206
Help America Vote Act (2002), 159
Henick, Chris, 140
heresthetics. See priming
Hill, David, 179
Hispanic voters, 155, 163, 169
Holbrook, Thomas, 9
Homestyle (Fenno), 54
homosexuality. See gay rights issues
Hoover, Herbert, 110
Huffington Post (blog), 199–200
Hutchings, Vincent, 54
ideological moderates. See persuadable voters
ideology, 6; compared to specific issues, 41–42, 64–65; defined or described, 48; polarization and, 49–50
immigration, as wedge issue, 2
implicit appeals, 33, 82, 110, 125n57, 138, 181; priming done through, 138
Independents, 8; appeals to, 122–23, 150, 162, 173; campaign effects on, 82–83; conventions and, 96–97; Ford campaign and targeting of, 45; as “leaners,” 25, 51; as persuadable voters, 18, 19n4, 25–26, 36, 48, 84, 85; as politically indifferent, 25–26, 33; “southern strategy” and appeals to, 119, 120–21, 123; statistics on number of, 56; turnout figures for, 25–26; vote transition and, 99
indifference: ambivalence contrasted with, 32, 33; of cross-pressured voters, 29–30; Independents and, 25–26, 33; persuadability and, 20
information environment: American Democracy and, 13; campaign dialogue and, 108; as campaign strategy context, 147; coalition building in context of, 190; communication technology and, 5–6, 153–54, 157–58, 183–84, 193; as context for wedge strategies, 147, 150–54; cross-pressured voters and, 21, 84, 90, 92–93, 103; incentives for candidates linked to, 16, 147, 152–54, 199; information-seeking behavior, 21, 54, 84, 85, 90, 92–93, 103, 182; interpersonal or social communication as part of, 34; issue publics and, 54; media and, 18, 34, 38, 133, 136; microtargeting and, 45, 46, 47, 155–61, 180, 183–84; “overload” in, 200; passive voter learning in, 30–31; persuadable voters in context of, 30, 93; polarization linked to, 47; policy agendas as response to, 46; policy incongruence in context of, 58; privacy issues and, 189; reciprocal campaigns and, 184–86; targeted campaign strategies and, 3, 5–6, 11–12, 46; technology and, 184, 190, 193, 198–201; top-down vs. bottom-up flow in, 184–85; voter data and, 46; voter information availability, 12–13, 46, 150–51, 152, 155–59, 166, 189; voters control over, 182. See also 30
interest groups as campaign participants, 163, 190–92, 197
interviews, as research instrument, 15, 22, 35, 48, 96, 97–98, 104–5, 130
Iraq War: G. W. Bush’s approval linked to, 33; policy incongruence and, 60; as priority issue for voters, 168, 187, 190; as wedge issue, 5, 37, 60–61, 66, 67
issue agendas: coalition building and, 44–45, 147–50; fragmentation of, 147; as strategic, 147, 181
issue avoidance, 134, 146, 149, 154
issue ownership, 41–42, 110–14, 167–68, 181, 193–94
issues: as consensual, 131, 138, 148n10, 169, 180–81; general campaign, 167, 169–70, 173, 174; importance or priority of, 207; measuring importance of, 62–63; “positional,” 148–49. See also issue agendas; issue ownership; issue salience; wedge issues
issue salience: activation and, 136, 147–48, 178; defection and, 21, 80–81, 104, 112–13, 184; direct mail and, 172–73; predisposition of voters and, 185; priming and, 21–22, 85, 185; public priorities and, 187–88; “southern strategy” and, 112–13; “spillover” effect and, 103n43; of wedge issues, 1–3, 21, 38, 80–81, 97, 104, 112–13, 184, 188–89
issue voting, 26, 31, 39–40, 65, 81
Jackson, Andrew, 154
Jamieson, Kathleen Hall, 162–63
Javitts, Jacob, 122
Jefferson, Thomas, 200
Johnson, Lyndon B., 118
Johnson, Tim, 102n39
Johnston, Richard, 128–29, 162–63
Kennedy, D. James, 191
Kerry, John, 46–47; campaign contact efforts of, 160; campaign strategies of, 9, 160, 175; defensive stance on wedge issues and, 176–77; direct mail appeals by, 167–68, 175–76; issues used by, 167–68; wedge issues used by, 176
King, Martin Luther, Jr., 115, 125–26
Knowledge Networks Election Study Panel, 57, 205, 208–10
Kousser, Thad, 194
Langevin, Jim, 40
Laymen, Geoffrey, 81
leaners, policy incongruence and, 51, 55
learning during campaigns, 30–31, 84–85, 95, 98
likely voters, 13, 156, 161, 179
Lillenker, Darren, 195
Lindsay, John, 122
Lodge, Henry Cabot, Jr., 116, 119–20
Log Cabin Republicans, 21
Lott, Trent, 139
Macomb County, Michigan, 82
Making of a President 1960, The (White), 114–15
Mancini, Paolo, 153
Mann, Thomas, 192
Mayer, William G., 78
McCarthy, Eugene, 78
McCaskill, Claire, 194
McCubbins, Mathew, 194
McGovern, George, 130
measurement, 16; of campaign effect, 34–35, 83, 85–99, 101–4; of campaign events as influence, 97; of campaign exposure, 35, 88–90, 93, 97; of cross-pressure effect, 55–56, 66, 70, 73–74, 79–80, 101, 126, 134, 141–43, 211–13; defection estimates, 93–94; of issue importance, 62–63; of moral wedge issue impact, 141–43; of policy incongruence, 50–51, 54–58, 83; of policy preference, 52–54, 135–36; of political awareness, 89, 101; of racial issues effect, 141–43; robustness checks of, 56, 64, 65–68, 79; of vote choice dynamics, 83, 85–90; of wedge issue effect, 125
media: and “air war” contrasted with “ground war” campaigning, 47; audience demographics and targeted appeals by, 155–56, 162–65, 169; battleground states and campaign coverage in, 88; broadcast, 47, 153–54, 162–65, 169; campaign agendas influenced by, 148; candidate’s control of message in, 181; convention coverage by, 95–96; “cost per persuadable voter” and media markets, 164–65; fragmentation of, 34, 155, 181; markets and campaign strategies, 164–65; message adapted to, 34, 169; and microtargeting and avoidance of press attention to issues, 151–52; narrowcast, 151, 154, 163, 169, 186, 189, 200; radio and campaign message moderation, 153–54; role of in accountability, 200; as strategic campaign tool, 133; targeted communication ignored or overlooked by broadcast, 189, 197; wedge issue campaign strategies as reported in, 36, 75, 125, 131, 169, 176–77, 189
median voter theorem, 41–42, 152
Mendelberg, Tali, 138
methodology, 79; for campaign strategy evaluation, 48; for candidate speech coding, 214; data sources, 7, 57–59; for direct mail analysis, 7, 15, 147, 162–64, 166–78, 171, 214–15; for evaluating campaign effects, 34–35; for evaluating policy preferences, 52–54, 135–36; for identification of persuadable voters, 8, 12–13, 24, 45, 68; multimethod approach, 7, 15–16, 35; robustness checks, 101; for vote choice observation, 22, 35, 85–90, 94–95. See also measurement; surveys, as research instruments
microtargeting: in 1840 campaign, 155; campaign contact and, 13–14, 164; campaign research and, 160–61; democracy and, 178–79, 186–93; of financial contributors, 3; fragmentation of policy message and, 47; incentives for, 6, 15, 47, 80–81, 161, 187, 199; increased political engagement linked to, 178–79; information environment and, 46, 47, 155–61, 176–77, 180, 183–84; interest groups’ use of, 163; Internet and, 193, 198–99; issue priority and, 46; lack of accountability in, 151–52, 179; narrowcast media and, 169; in other Western democracies, 195; as personalized appeals, 198; policy agenda influence by, 179–80; political inequality and, 186–87; precision of, 14–15, 160, 198; privacy issues and, 189; and success of Republican strategy, 176–77; “superficial politics” linked to, 187–88; voter information availability and, 150–51, 184, 198–99; voter response to, 197–98; and wedge issues and identification of specific voter concerns, 160–61; wedge issues and suitability of, 47
Milbank, Dana, 46
minimum wage, 2, 46–47, 167 Minority Report (film), 199
Mitchell, John, 122
mobilization: direct mail appeals and, 170–72; fundraising and volunteer appeals as part of, 171; of partisan base, 3, 9, 42–44, 91, 149, 170–72, 177
moral issues: African American voters and, 140–41; as direct mail content, 167–69, 174, 175–76, 188; indirect activation of, 181; measurement of impact of, 131–43; policy incongruence and, 60, 74, 79–80, 184; religious rallies as campaign opportunities, 164; salience of, 188–89; “southern strategy” and, 133, 136–43; survey questions on, 206, 209, 211; as wedge issues, 1–3, 36–37, 51, 97, 125, 173–75, 187–92, 194–95. See also specific issue
Moran, Robert, 1
Morrow, E. Frederick, 116
Morton, Thruston, 119–20 “motor voter” act, 158–59
Murphy, Reg, 119
Mutz, Diana, 29
narrowcasting, 151, 154, 163, 169, 186, 189, 200. See also microtargeting
National Annenberg Election study, 187–88
national defense and national security, 9, 41, 125n57, 132, 134, 145, 167n66, 168; survey questions on, 210
National Voter Registration Act (1993), 158–59
NES. See American National Election Studies (NES)
Nixon, Richard M., 3, 44, 114–16; 1960 election, 117; civil rights and, 107–8, 114-16, 118–24, 130; responsiveness of to polls, 46; shift in position of reflected in campaign rhetoric, 121, 124, 126; on “southern strategy,” 118–19; Watergate scandal and resignation of, 131
nonvoters, 24, 29, 70, 102n41, 117, 179
Novak, Robert, 117
Obama, Barak, 199
One Party Country (Hamburger and Wallsten), 12
Ornstein, Norman, 192
O’Shaughnessy, Nicholas, 190
panel data, 7, 16, 29, 35, 57–58, 83, 86, 88, 89; Knowledge Networks Election Study Panel, 57, 205, 208–10; NES as source of, 125, 129–30, 134–36, 137
Parker, Robin, 157
parties, political: American two-party system, 39, 50–51, 73, 193–94; base or core members of (See 167; centrism and rational choice theory in, 39; as coalitions or heterogeneous, 27, 50–51, 73, 154, 193–94; culture wars as indicative of cleavages within, 80; issue ownership and, 41–42; partisan appeals as campaign strategy, 44–45; primary system and, 42–43; realignment and, 80–81, 137; religiosity of, 74–75; socioeconomics of, 76; statistics on, 51; stereotypes of, 49, 133; third parties in America (See Independents). See also defection; Independents; party affiliation or identification
partisan base, 10; campaign contact with, 175; campaigns and mobilization of, 3, 9, 42–44, 91, 149, 170–72, 177; defined or described, 48, 177; incentives for, 109; as neglected in campaign appeals, 122–23, 137, 175; polarization and appeals to, 178; wedge issues as appeals to, 3, 42–45, 149, 162, 173, 175–77, 184
party affiliation or identification: campaigns and loyalty to, 9–10; and cleavages within party coalitions, 73–79; cross-pressured voters and strength of, 175; decision-making process and, 4, 80, 95; defection and, 89, 95, 96, 127; defined or described, 48, 51; “leaners” and, 51; message resistance and, 21, 92; policy incongruence and, 94–95, 109; policy preferences and, 26, 79, 111; as predisposition, 19–20, 44, 61, 85; race and, 111; registration data as source of information on, 55–56; religion and, 75; statistics on, 51; and stereotypes of political parties, 49, 133; US electoral process and, 19–20; vote choice and, 28–29, 51, 79, 85, 93, 104, 129. See also defection; partisan base
“patriotic” issues and appeals, 140, 144
People’s Choice, The (Lazerfeld et al.), 29–30
persuadable voters: candidates estimation of, 56; as cross-pressured, 3, 5, 18, 83–86, 149, 177–78; decision-making process of, 4; defection by, 93–94; defined and described, 23, 184; elections decided by, 8; estimates of number of, 8; “floating voters,” 185; identification of, 8, 12–13, 24, 45, 68; individual characteristics of, 8; as individuals rather than members of group, 8; internal conflict and, 3, 5; as irrational, 30; measurement of persuadability of, 24, 48; message receptivity of, 177–78; microtargeting of, 45; moderates as, 152; as partisan, 51–52; policy incongruence and, 122–23; psychology of, 31; as target of campaign appeals, 122–23, 177; theory of, 19–23; as “undecided,” 18, 23–24, 184; as uninformed or politically unengaged, 30, 184; wedge issues and, 2–3, 42–45, 161, 162, 184. See also defection; swing voters
persuasion, 15, 22–23; direct mail appeals and, 170–72. See also persuadable voters
Petrocik, John R., 42
Pierson, Paul, 149
polarization: appeals to partisan base and, 178; information environment linked to, 47, 152; microtargeting and, 152–53, 178; as overestimated, 3–4, 49–50, 73; voters alienated by, 182; wedge issues and, 152
policy. See policy agendas; policy incongruence; policy preferences
policy agendas: campaign promises and, 119–20, 188–89; campaign strategies as motivated by, 40–42; as campaign tools, 10–11; direct mail as expression of, 169–70; as divorced from campaign issue agendas, 192; fragmentation of, 47, 147; as incentives, 38, 41, 109, 147; microtargeting and, 14, 47; persuadable voters as audience for, 132–33, 176; “superficial politics” and, 187–88; television advertising as reflective of, 169–70; wedge issues and minority control of, 15
policy incongruence, 60; affirmative action and, 60, 76–77, 129; ballot initiatives as evidence of, 194–95; campaign information and, 58; candidate incentives and, 81; coalitions and, 73–79; culture wars and, 79–81; defection triggered by, 80–81, 95, 103n42, 112–13, 117–18, 125, 126–28, 130, 185; as defined for research context, 55; demographics and, 77–78; economic issues and, 60, 75–76; incidence of, 77–78, 79, 184; information environment as context for, 58; leaners and, 51, 55; measurement of, 50, 55–58, 60–61, 70–72, 79; moral issues and, 60, 74–75, 79–81; partisanship and, 94–95, 109; persistence of, 134; persuadability and, 122–23, 177, 183; pluralism and, 73; political sophistication and, 64; priming and, 21–22; racial issues and, 60, 76–77, 129–30; religiosity linked to, 74–75; social welfare issues and, 60; socioeconomics linked to, 75–76; specific issues and level of, 60–61, 62; undecided voters and, 98; vote choice and, 79. See also cross-pressured voters
policy preferences, 52–63; campaign dialogue as influence on, 52; candidate choice and shift in, 40, 99–101, 129; as complex and conflicting, 106; consistency of attitudes and, 134–35; decision making and, 10; defection and, 94–95; elections as expression of, 13, 183; evaluation of, 52–54, 135–36; incumbency and clear expression of, 67; inferred on basis of group, 108; measurement of, 50–51, 54–58, 83; party affiliation or identification and, 26, 79, 111; as predisposition, 10; social identity and, 31; values and, 33; vote choice and, 28–29, 79, 93
Polimetrix, 58
political awareness, message receptivity and, 21, 92–93, 103, 104–5
political awareness or sophistication: and message receptivity of voters, 21; as “undecided,” 18, 23–24, 184; as uninformed or politically unengaged, 30, 184
political psychology research, campaign effects and, 21
polling, 45, 46, 47; as voter information source, 12–13, 156
Ponzetto, Giacomo, 153
Popkin, Sam, 10
pornography, 140
predispositions: campaigns as context for prioritizing, 9, 22, 185; candidate selection in context of, 22, 30; conflicting or competing, 9, 19, 74, 106, 129, 183, 185; decision-making process and, 19, 22–23, 94, 106, 185; defined, 19; implicit appeals to racist, 138; “issue publics” and, 54; party affiliation as, 19–20, 44, 61, 85; policy preferences as, 10; receptivity to campaign message and, 21, 92–93, 104, 129, 183; targeted appeals and, 190
primaries, 3, 42–43, 56, 199–200
priming, 84–85, 94, 95, 101, 185; as campaign strategy, 23, 46, 147–48, 184; implicit appeals and, 138; issue salience and, 21–22, 85, 185; policy incongruence and, 21–22; wedge issues and, 12, 110, 124–25, 180, 184
Prior, Markus, 180
Race Card, The (Mendelberg), 138
Race to 270, The (Shaw), 162–63
racial issues, 120; affirmative action, 60, 76–77; campaign context and impact of, 142–43; implicit appeals and, 198; policy incongruence linked to, 60, 76–77, 110, 129–30; priming on, 110, 124–25; racism in campaign messages, 110, 125n57, 138–39; school desegregation, 107; “southern strategy” and, 77, 107–8, 110, 136–43; targeting using racially personalized appeals, 198; as wedge issues, 125n57
rational choice theory, 2, 30–31, 39, 43, 91–92
Reagan, Ronald, 3, 24n16, 36, 82, 118, 138, 150, 161
Reagan, Ronald Prescott, 1–2, 97
realignment, 80–81, 137. See also defection
reasoning voters, 31
reciprocal campaigns, 4–7, 15, 143, 184–86; campaign dialogue and, 184; and candidates as responsive to targeted voters, 136; policy agenda influences in, 179–80; and responsiveness to polls, 46. See also “southern strategy”
registered voters: campaign contact and, 13–14, 165–67; microtargeted appeals to, 58–59, 160–61; party affiliation of, 56; voter information on, 11, 46–47, 56, 157–61, 199
regulatory issues, policy incongruence and, 60
religion: of candidate as issue, 132; party affiliation and, 75; policy incongruence and, 60, 74; as political interest, 190–92; survey questions on, 206; wedge issues and, 2, 140, 144. See also moral issues
Republican Party. See parties, political
research instruments. See methodology
Responsible Electorate, The (Key), 22
Richardson, Bill, 182
Ripon Society, 118
Rockefeller, Nelson, 113, 114, 122
Rossiter, Clinton, 78
Russell, Mike, 197
salience. See issue salience
Salmore, Barbara, 45
Salmore, Stephen, 45
Saunders, Kyle, 50
Schier, Steven, 187
Seaborn, Brent, 177
self-reporting, reliability of, 35
Shapiro, Jesse, 153
Simon, Adam, 22
Sniderman, Paul, 53
snowmobiling policy as wedge issue, 14
social security: policy incongruence and, 60, 62, 76, 77, 101, 102–3, 105; privatization of, 41, 76, 192; survey questions on, 205–6, 210, 211; targeted appeals and, 47, 54–55; as wedge issue, 62, 101–2, 167–68, 181
social welfare issues: policy incongruence and, 60; as wedge issues, 36–37, 102n40. See also social security
socioeconomics, policy preferences and, 74–76
sophistication, political, 63–65, 93, 100, 103; education as proxy for, 89; of persuadable voters, 19, 30–31, 177–78; policy incongruence and, 74, 184; policy preferences and, 52
Sosnick, Douglas, 150–51 “southern strategy,” 36; in 1976 campaign, 133–34; African American voters and, 112, 117; campaign agendas and, 116, 123–24, 131–32, 134; civil rights as issue and, 107–8, 110, 114–16; conservative white voters as target for, 117; economic issues and, 110; as effective, 109; foreign policy issues and, 110; moral issues and, 136–43; “Operation Dixie” as part of, 117; racial divisions and, 77; racial issues and, 107–8, 110; rhetorical analysis of, 109; shift from racial to moral issues in, 136–43; success of, 124; swing voters and the, 109, 112, 120–21, 143; Wallace voters as target of, 119, 120–21, 123
Southern Strategy, The (Murphy and Guliver), 119
Speilberg, Steven, 199
Sperlich, Peter, 27
Spivlak, Alvin, 107
stem cell research, 14, 144, 167, 194; as appeal to core, 175; direct mail and, 169; policy incongruence and, 60; public opinion on, 15; as salient wedge issue, 1–3, 39–40, 97, 102n40; survey questions on, 206, 211
Sundquist, James, 80
surveys, as research instruments: Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Brigham Young University, 48, 58–59; conduct of, 57–59; cross-sectional, 16, 35, 57; design of described, 52–54; framing of issues in survey questions, 53–54; NES, 173–74; panel, 7, 16, 57–58; Polimetrix, 58; question wording and coding for, 53–54, 126, 205–13; random-digit dialing telephone, 57; experiments in, 7, 15, 101–4, 210–11. See also Blair Center Election Survey; Campaign Communication Study (CCS); Knowledge Networks Election Study Panel
Swanson, David, 153
swing voters: alienation of, 138; in battleground states, 11; campaign agendas tailored to, 12–13, 38, 39, 47, 133; campaign contact and, 165, 173, 179; campaign strategies as appeals to, 11, 47, 162, 187; as centrists or ideological moderates, 39; defined and described, 18, 23n14, 25; electoral college and attention to, 11; as essential to victory, 123; group characteristics of, 8, 18, 31; identification of, 12–13, 24; media and, 18, 133; as oversimplification of persuadability, 18, 109; party specific identification and appeals to, 109; “southern strategy” and targeting of, 109, 112, 120–21, 143; as “undecided,” 8, 18
Swire, Peter, 189
Talent, Jim, 194
targeting: broadcast audience demographics and, 162–65; content in “macrotargeted” campaign messages, 169–70; contradictory campaign messages linked to, 163–64; and dog-whistle politics, 6; geotargeting, 154, 156–57, 164–66; likely voters and, 13; narrowcast media and, 200; radio audience demographics and, 163; regional adaptation of campaign messages, 154; technology linked to, 5–6; television advertising and, 162, 164–65; using racially personalized appeals, 198
TargetPoint consulting, 160–61, 165, 177
Taylor, Sara, 161
telephones: as campaign tools, 12, 46, 151, 159, 160, 163, 181; random-digit dialing surveys, 57
television: audience demographics and, 155–56, 162, 169; battleground states and, 163, 164–65; as broadcast medium, 47, 154; as campaign advertising medium, 11, 145, 153, 155–56, 159, 160, 163, 164–65, 169–70; campaign finance laws and, 160; changing information environment and decline in importance of, 155; content of campaign advertising on, 169, 178; costs of advertising on, 164–65, 170; direct contact or narrowcast media as alternative to, 159, 162–66, 169, 182; media’s role in ensuring campaign accountability in, 200
terrorism, 60, 161, 167, 168, 197–98
Theriault, Sean, 53
third-party politics: primaries and exclusion of, 56. See also Independents
Thurmond, Strom, 112, 117, 119, 139
ticket splitters. See persuadable voters
tort reform, 168
Truman, Harry S., 111–13, 151, 154
turnout, 29; alienation and, 117; by base, 43; by cross-pressured voters, 19, 32; GOTV appeals and, 156, 160, 170; legislation to encourage voter, 158–59; likely voters and, 156, 161; microtargeting and reduced, 180; for primaries, 43. See also nonvoters
Two Americas, The (Greenberg), 49
two-party system, 39, 50–51, 73, 193–94
2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics, The (Johnston, Hagen, and Jamieson), 162–63
undecided voters: campaign events and, 87, 98, 123; as cross-pressured, 85, 87; defection and, 87, 184; as distinct from persuadable voters, 18, 23–24; Independents as, 85; policy incongruence and, 98; as target of campaign messages, 154; “waverers,” 9, 30, 86. See also persuadable voters; swing voters
unions, 60, 82, 123–24, 154, 159
vagueness, as deliberate campaign strategy, 33, 55
values: policy and, 33; values voters (See moral issues)
Vann, Robert, 111
Viguerie, Richard, 157
Vilsack, Tom, 102n39
vote choice: analysis of after election 2000, 85–90; campaign effects and, 9, 85–90, 95–99; campaign exposure and, 57; conventions and debates as influence on, 95–99; defection and, 93; within elections, 22; identity linked to, 28; ignorance and volatility of, 93; information environment as context for, 89; issues and, 57–58, 108; learning and, 84–85, 95; measurement of, 83, 85–90; observation of, 22, 35, 85–90, 89, 94–95; observation of individual changes in, 22; party affiliation or identification and, 28–29, 51, 79, 85, 93, 104, 129; policy incongruence and, 79; policy preferences and, 28–29, 99–101; priming and, 84–85; uninformed voters and, 93; volatility in decision-making process, 25, 30, 85–90, 87, 93–94, 98. See also decision making; defection
voter information: in Australia, 196; campaign contact and, 167; campaign strategy and, 160–61, 184; contributor’s lists as sources of, 157; data mining and, 155–56, 198–99; microtargeting dependent upon, 150–61, 184, 198–99; polls as sources of, 12–13, 156; registration files as source of, 157–59, 166. See also awareness, political; sophistication, political
Wallace, George Corley, 119, 120–21, 123
Wallsten, Peter, 12
Watergate scandal as context, 131
“waverers.” See undecided voters
wedge campaign strategies: as appeal to base, 3, 42–45, 149, 162, 173, 175–77, 184; as appeal to Independents, 162; as appeal to persuadable voters, 2–3, 42–45, 143, 161, 177, 184; as appeal to swing voters, 143, 177; in Australian politics, 196–97; as calculated risk, 46–47, 108 (See also 8, 103n43, 125, 181; coalitions and, 36–37, 151, 183–84; culture wars and, 51; defensive vs. offensive stances in, 176–77; distinct positional choice essential to, 125, 128, 149; as dual appeal to base and swing voters, 177; incentives for using, 5, 38, 46–47, 51, 147, 150, 180, 183–84; information environment and, 147, 150–54, 180; in lower-level races, 193–95; salience of issues and, 149; success of, 38; theory of, 35–36. See also microtargeting; wedge issues
wedge issues: abortion, 2, 3, 74, 161; consensual issues as potential, 148n10; “culture war” and, 51; defection linked to, 21, 80–81, 104, 112–13; defined and described, 36–37; as direct mail content, 166–73, 175–78; dormancy or latency of, 22, 39–40, 54–55; economic issues as, 2, 36–37, 145–46; education issues and, 140, 144; environmental issues as, 14, 22, 38, 133, 163, 167; gay rights issues as, 2, 74; immigration, 2; internal conflict and, 3, 5; Iraq War, 5, 37, 60–61, 66–67; moral issues as, 1–3, 36–37, 51, 97, 125, 173–75, 187–92, 194–95; salience of, 1–3, 21, 38, 80–81, 97, 104, 112–13, 184, 188–89, 195; social welfare issues as, 36–37, 60, 102n40, 167; “targeted issues,” 173, 174, 175
White, Theodore, 114, 115, 116, 117
Wilkins, Roy, 121
Wirthlin, Richard, 146
Wright, Gerald, 150
Wright, Jim, 27
YouTube, 199