Investing in the Age of Sovereign Defaults by Treadway, Peter T. -- Read -- Imperial Library of Trantor

Index

Cover Contents Title Copyright Dedication Acknowledgments Preface Chapter 1: Democracies’ Fatal Attraction of Populism

Default, an Expanded Definition Debt Default in History—A Recurring Theme Nobody Likes a Lender Populism, Democracy, and the Road to Default The Demographics Are Awful The Special Roles of the United States Universal Suffrage—The Holy Grail or the Villain? Universal Suffrage—The American Story Rational Economic Man? Irrational Voters? Is a Meritocracy Good for Everyone? Do We Want a Meritocracy? Public-Sector Unions—We Vote for You, You Reward Us Debt and Macroeconomics Hyman Minsky: Another View of Debt and Macroeconomics Culture Counts One Note of Optimism

Chapter 2: The Sorry Fiscal State of the Advanced Countries

Sovereign Debt/GDP Outlook for the United States Dismal Demographics Race and Ethnicity—An American Complication Unfunded Entitlements and Dismal Accounting And Then There Are the American States The Ownership of US Government Securities If Something Cannot Go on Forever, Then It Will Stop Europe—The Default Process Has Already Begun The Euro—What Should Have Been The United Kingdom—Not a Euro Country Japan—The Enigma

Chapter 3: A Diversion to India and China

India—The Democratic Surprise China—Not a Democracy, Populism Less of a Problem

Chapter 4: The International Monetary System—In Desperate Need of Repair

Chapter 5: The Road to Worthless Paper Money

China—The Birthplace of (Worthless) Paper Money A Persian Diversion The American Story—“Honest Abe” Prints Some Money German Hyperinflation—Is This the Prototype? Modern Inflation Are We Really in Deflation? Measuring Inflation—Are the Numbers Really Higher?

Chapter 6: An Overall Assessment of the Current Investing Scene

The Bad News The Good News and Some Long-Term Trends (Which Are Mostly Good News) The Unknowns Supply-Side Reforms Must be Enacted Taxation—Americans versus Everybody Else

Chapter 7: Investment Survival in the Age of Defaults

Asset Classes for Investment Survival Fixed-Income Securities European Equities What about American TIPS? Gold—Don’t Get Carried Away Commodities/Resources—Not a Simple Story Selected Big-Cap Nonfinancial, Global Companies Large Global Banks—Avoid Equities from Selected Emerging Markets

Appendix A: A Quantitative Approach to Sovereign Risk Assessment About the Author About the Contributor Index