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active open-mindedness, lack of, 310–11, 356–57n67
ad hominem fallacy, 19–20, 90–91, 92–93, 291
affirming the consequent, 83, 85, 139
Allais paradox, 188–90
all-or-none causation fallacy, 260, 269
appeal to emotion, 92
a priori–a posteriori confusion. See post hoc probability
argument from authority, 3–4, 90, 291
availability bias and heuristic, 11, 119–23, 125–27, 320, 347n22
bandwagon fallacy, 90, 93, 291
base rate neglect, 154–57, 349–50nn6,27
begging the question, 89
bias bias, 291
biased assimilation, 290–91
bounded rationality, 184–88
broken-leg problem, overestimation of, 279–80
burden of proof fallacy, 89
clinical vs. actuarial judgment, 278–80
close-mindedness. See active open-mindedness, lack of
cluster illusion, 146–48
cognitive reflection, lack of, 8–10, 311
confirmation bias, 13–14, 142–43, 216, 290, 342n26
conjunction fallacy (Linda problem), 26–29, 115, 116, 156
correlation implies causation, 245–47, 251–52, 312, 321, 323–24, 329–30
denying the antecedent, 83, 294
dieter’s fallacy, 101
discounting the future too steeply, 320
dread risk, 122
exponential growth bias, 10–12, 320–21
expressive rationality, 297–98
false dichotomy, 100
forbidden base rates, 62, 163–66
framing effects, 117–18, 168–70, 178, 188–92, 192–96, 321, 323, 349–50n27
garden of forking paths, 145, 185, 348n60
genetic fallacy, 91, 92–93, 291
guilt by association, 91
heretical counterfactuals, 64–65
hot hand fallacy, 131
hot hand fallacy fallacy, 131–32
hyperbolic discounting. See myopic temporal discounting
illusory correlation, 245–46, 251–52, 321
imaginability. See availability heuristic
irrelevant alternatives, sensitivity to, 177–78, 188–92, 350n8
loss aversion, 192–94
mañana fallacy, 101
Meadow’s fallacy (multiplying probabilities of interdependent events), 129–30, 131
money pump, 176, 180, 185, 187–88
monocausal fallacy, 260, 272–73
motte-and-bailey tactic (moving the goalposts), 88
moving the goalposts (motte-and-bailey), 88
myopic temporal discounting, 52–56, 54
myside bias, 294–96, 297, 312–13, 316, 317, 357n73
mythology mindset, 301–9
no true Scotsman fallacy, 88
openness to evidence, lack of, 310–11, 356–57n67
outrage, communal, 123–27
overconfidence, 20, 29–30, 33, 115, 216, 255, 323
paradoxical tactics, 58–62
paradox of the heap, 101
post hoc probability, 141–48, 160, 321
preference reversal, 52–53, 55
probability neglect, 11, 28, 321
propensity confused with probability, 21–22, 118, 139–40, 198, 216
prosecutor’s fallacy, 140–41
questionable research practices, 145–46, 160
regression to the mean, unawareness of, 254–56, 320, 353n13
representativeness heuristic, 27, 155–56
resistance to evidence. See openness to evidence, lack of
selective exposure, 290–91
sexism, 19–20
slippery slope fallacy, 100–101
so-what-you’re-saying-is, 88
special pleading, 88
stereotyping, 99–100, 108–09. See also representativeness
sunk cost fallacy, 237–38, 320, 323
System 1 thinking. See cognitive reflection, lack of
taboos, 62, 124, 166. See also forbidden base rates; heretical counterfactuals; taboo tradeoffs
taboo tradeoffs, 62–64, 184, 350n15
Texas sharpshooter fallacy, 142–46, 160, 321
Tragedy of the Rationality Commons, 298, 315–17
tu quoque (what-aboutery), 89
unreflective thinking, 8–10, 311
virtus dormitiva, 11–12, 53, 89
what-aboutery (tu quoque), 89
Winner’s Curse, 256