1. See, for example, George C. Edwards III, The Strategic President: Persuasion and Opportunity in Presidential Leadership (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009); George C. Edwards III, On Deaf Ears; The Limits of the Bully Pulpit (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2003); George C. Edwards III, At the Margins: Presidential Leadership of Congress (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989); Richard Fleisher, Jon R. Bond, and B. Dan Wood, “Which Presidents Are Uncommonly Successful in Congress?” in Presidential Leadership: The Vortex of Presidential Power, ed. Bert Rockman and Richard W. Waterman (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007); George C. Edwards III, Governing by Campaigning: The Politics of the Bush Presidency, 2nd ed. (New York: Longman, 2007), chap. 3.
2. Edwards, The Strategic President.
3. Ibid.
4. Michael Nelson, “The President and the Court: Reinterpreting the Court-packing Episode of 1937,” Political Science Quarterly 103 (Summer 1988): 277–278.
5. Useful sources of the battle over the court-packing bill include William E. Leuchtenburg, The Supreme Court Reborn: The Constitutional Revolution in the Age of Roosevelt (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995); William E. Leuchtenburg, Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal, 1932–1940 (New York: Harper & Row, 1963); James T. Patterson, Congressional Conservatism and the New Deal (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1967; James MacGregor Burns, Roosevelt: The Lion and the Fox (New York: Harcourt, Brace and World, 1956; George Tindall, The Emergence of the New South, 1913–1945 (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1967).
6. Leuchtenburg, The Supreme Court Reborn, p. 156.
7. Ibid., pp. 157–158; Leuchtenburg, Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal, 1932–1940, pp. 250–251, chap. 11.
8. Edwards, On Deaf Ears, pp. 35–37.
9. Lawrence R. Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, Politicians Don’t Pander (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000), pp. 76, 81–83, 105, 115–16, 136, 149, 152.
10. Ibid., pp. 115, 149.
11. Quoted in Elizabeth Drew, Showdown: The Struggle between the Gingrich Congress and the Clinton White House (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), p. 66.
12. Jacobs and Shapiro, Politicians Don’t Pander, p. 115.
13. Quoted in Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, “Bush Rejects Delay, Prepares Escalated Social Security Push,” Washington Post, March 3, 2005, p. A4. See also Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei, “Social Security Push to Tap the GOP Faithful: Campaign’s Tactics Will Drive Appeal,” Washington Post, January 14, 2005, p. A6; and Thomas B. Edsall, “Conservatives Join Forces for Bush Plans; Social Security, Tort Limits Spur Alliance,” Washington Post, February 13, 2005, p. A4.
14. Allen and VandeHei, “Social Security Push to Tap the GOP Faithful.”
15. www.strengtheningsocialsecurity.gov/60stops/accomplishments_042705.pdf.
16. See Edwards, Governing by Campaigning, chap. 7.
17. Bill Clinton, My Life (London: Hutchinson, 2004), p. 514.
18. Edwards, The Strategic President, chap. 6.
19. Ibid., chaps. 2–3, 6.
20. “Presidential Strategies for Governing,” Regent University, February 6, 2009.
21. “Five Questions for George C. Edwards III, Author of The Strategic President,” CQ Weekly, March 30, 2009, p. 703.
22. Richard E. Neustadt, Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents (New York: Free Press, 1990), p. 4.
1. George C. Edwards III, On Deaf Ears: The Limits of the Bully Pulpit (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2003).
2. George C. Edwards III, The Strategic President: Persuasion and Opportunity in Presidential Leadership (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009), pp. 26–34.
3. George C. Edwards III, Governing by Campaigning: The Politics of the Bush Presidency, 2nd ed. (New York: Longman, 2007).
4. See Edwards, The Strategic President, chaps. 2–3, 6.
5. Quoted in Jonathan Alter, The Promise: President Obama, Year One (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), p. 47; and Dan Balz, “He Promised Change, but Is This Too Much, Too Soon?” Washington Post, July 26, 2009.
6. Shailagh Murray and Paul Kane, “Obama’s Ambitious Agenda Will Test Congress,” Washington Post, February 26, 2009.
7. Transcript: “President Barack Obama,” 60 Minutes, Interview by Steve Kroft, November 4, 2010.
8. Ronald Brownstein and Alexis Simendinger, “The View from the West Wing,” National Journal, January 16, 2010, p. 27.
9. Quoted in Alter, The Promise, pp. 79, 429. See also p. 188.
10. Scott Wilson, “Bruised by Stimulus Battle, Obama Changed His Approach to Washington,” Washington Post, April 29, 2009.
11. For example, White House communications director Anita Dunn concluded that the administration failed at selling health care reform as a central part of its economic message. Dan Balz, “For Obama, a Tough Year to Get the Message Out,” Washington Post, January 10, 2010.
12. Barack Obama, State of the Union Address, January 27, 2010.
13. David E. Sanger, “Where Clinton Turned Right, Obama Plowed Ahead,” New York Times, January 28, 2009.
14. George C. Edwards III, At the Margins: Presidential Leadership of Congress (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989), chap. 8; Lawrence J. Grossback, David A. M. Peterson, and James A. Stimson, Mandate Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
15. For more on the conditions that encourage perceptions of a mandate, see Edwards, At the Margins, chap. 8; and Grossback, Peterson, and Stimson, Mandate Politics, chap. 2.
16. Transcript of press conference on November 25, 2008.
17. ABC News/Washington Post poll, January 13–16, 2009.
18. Barack Obama, Inaugural Address, January 20, 2009.
19. Quoted in John Harwood, “ ‘Partisan’ Seeks a Prefix: Bi-or Post-” New York Times, December 7, 2008.
20. Ibid.
21. Gallup Poll daily tracking polls, throughout 2009. The sample includes 291,152 U.S. adults. The margin of sampling error for most states is ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±5 percentage points for the District of Columbia.
22. Gallup Poll surveys conducted January–September 2009.
23. Shawn Treier and D. Sunshine Hillygus, “The Nature of Political Ideology in the Contemporary Electorate,” Public Opinion Quarterly 73 (Winter 2009): 679–703; Christopher Ellis and James A. Stimson, “Symbolic Ideology in the American Electorate,” Electoral Studies 28 (September 2009): 388–402; William G. Jacoby, “Policy Attitudes, Ideology, and Voting Behavior in the 2008 Election,” paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 2009; James A. Stimson, Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004); Pamela J. Conover and Stanley Feldman, “The Origins and Meaning of Liberal/Conservative Identifications,” American Journal of Political Science 25 (October 1981): 617–645; David O. Sears, Richard L. Lau, Tom R. Tyler, and Harris M. Allen, “Self-Interest vs. Symbolic Politics in Policy Attitudes and Presidential Voting,” American Political Science Review 74 (September 1980): 670–684.
24. Philip E. Converse, “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics,” in Ideology and Discontent, ed. David E. Apter (New York: Free Press, 1964), pp. 206–261.
25. Teresa E. Levitin and Warren E. Miller, “Ideological Interpretations of Presidential Elections,” American Political Science Review 73 (September 1979): 751–771.
26. Robert Huckfeldt, Jeffrey Levine, William Morgan, and John Sprague, “Accessibility and the Political Utility of Partisan and Ideological Orientations,” American Journal of Political Science 43 (July 1999): 888–911; Kathleen Knight, “Ideology in the 1980 Election: Ideological Sophistication Does Matter,” Journal of Politics 47 (July 1985): 828–853; Levitin and Miller, “Ideological Interpretations of Presidential Elections”; James A. Stimson, “Belief Systems: Constraint, Complexity, and the 1972 Election,” American Journal of Political Science 19 (July 1975): 393–417.
27. Paul Goren, Christopher M. Federico, and Miki Caul Kittilson, “Source Cues, Partisan Identities, and Political Value Expression,” American Journal of Political Science 53 (October 2009): 805–820; Christopher M. Federico and Monica C. Schneider, “Political Expertise and the Use of Ideology: Moderating the Effects of Evaluative Motivation,” Public Opinion Quarterly 71(Summer 2007): 221–252; William G. Jacoby, “Value Choices and American Public Opinion,” American Journal of Political Science 50 (July 2006): 706–723; Paul Goren, “Political Sophistication and Policy Reasoning: A Reconsideration,” American Journal of Political Science 48 (July 2004): 462–478; Paul Goren, “Core Principles and Policy Reasoning in Mass Publics: A Test of Two Theories,” British Journal of Political Science 31(January 2001): 159–177; Huckfeldt, Levine, Morgan, and Sprague, “Accessibility and the Political Utility of Partisan and Ideological Orientations”; William G. Jacoby, “The Structure of Ideological Thinking in the American Electorate,” American Journal of Political Science 39 (April 1995): 314–335; William G. Jacoby, “Ideological Identification and Issue Attitudes,” American Journal of Political Science 35 (January 1991): 178–205; Stanley Feldman, “Structure and Consistency in Public Opinion: The Role of Core Beliefs and Attitudes,” American Journal of Political Science 32 (May 1988): 416–440; Sears, Lau, Tyler, and Allen, “Self-Interest vs. Symbolic Politics in Policy Attitudes and Presidential Voting.”
28. Thomas J. Rudolph and Jillian Evans, “Political Trust, Ideology, and Public Support for Government Spending,” American Journal of Political Science 49 (July 2005): 660–671; William G. Jacoby, “Issue Framing and Government Spending,” American Journal of Political Science 44 (October 2000): 750–767; William G. Jacoby, “Public Attitudes toward Government Spending,” American Journal of Political Science 38 (April 1994): 336–361.
29. Andrew Kohut, “Obama’s 2010 Challenge: Wake Up Liberals, Calm Down Independents,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, December 17, 2009.
30. Gallup poll, August 31–September 2, 2009.
31. Gallup polls, November 13–16, 2008, and November 5–8, 2009.
32. See also New York Times/CBS News poll, February 5–10, 2010.
33. Phil Mattingly, “Debt Takes a Holiday,” CQ Weekly, December 28, 2009, pp. 2934–2941.
34. Robert H. Durr, “What Moves Policy Sentiment?” American Political Science Review 87 (March 1993): 158–170; Suzanna De Boef and Paul M. Kellstedt, “The Political (and Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence,” American Journal of Political Science 48 (October 2004): 633–649.
35. USA Today/Gallup polls of March 27–29, 2009.
36. Gallup poll, July 17–19, 2009.
37. Washington Post-ABC News poll, July 15–18, 2009.
38. Gallup poll, August 6–9, 2009.
39. Gallup poll, August 31–September 2, 2009.
40. Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. MacKuen, and James A. Stimson, The Macro Polity (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002), chap. 9.
41. Ibid., pp. 344, 374.
42. See also Stuart N. Soroka and Christopher Wlezien, Degress of Democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010).
43. See Gary C. Jacobson, A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American Public, 3rd ed. (New York: Longman, 2011).
44. If independent leaners are included as partisans, the figure rises to 8.0 percent; only John F. Kennedy attracted fewer (7.1 percent). These figures are from Gary C. Jacobson, “Legislative Success and Political Failure: The Public’s Reaction to Barack Obama’s Early Presidency,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 41 (June 2011), p. 221.
45. Ibid, pp. 221–222.
46. Kate Kenski, Bruce W. Hardy, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, The Obama Victory: How Media, Money, and Message Shaped the 2008 Election (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010).
47. Spencer Piston, “How Explicit Racial Prejudice Hurt Obama in the 2008 Election,” Political Behavior 32 (December 2010): 431–451; Michael Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien, and Richard Nadeau, “Obama’s Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost?” PS: Political Science and Politics 43 (January 2010): 69–76; Benjamin Highton, “Prejudice Rivals Partisanship and Ideology When Explaining the 2008 Presidential Vote across the States,” PS: Political Science and Politics 44 (July 2011): 6530–535.
48. Jay Cost, “Electoral Polarization Continues Under Obama,” RealClearPolitics HorseRaceBlog, November 20, 2008.
49. Ibid.
50. See Jacobson, A Divider, Not a Uniter.
51. Nolan McCarty, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal, Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2006).
52. Bill Bishop, The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2008).
53. Ian McDonald, “Migration and Sorting in the American Electorate: Evidence From the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study,” American Politics Research 39 (May 2011): 512–533.
54. 2000 Exit Polls.
55. Alan I. Abramowitz, The Disappearing Center (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2010).
56. Andrew Garner and Harvey Palmer, “Polarization and Issue Consistency Over Time,” Political Behavior 33 (June 2011): 225–246.
57. Gallup Daily tracking averages for February 9–15, 2009.
58. Gallup Daily tracking averages for April 20–26, 2009.
59. Gallup Poll, News Release, January 5, 2001.
60. Gary C. Jacobson, “The Bush Presidency and the American Electorate,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 33 (December 2003): 701–729.
61. See, for example, Jeffrey M. Jones, “Bush Ratings Show Historical Levels of Polarization,” Gallup News Service, June 4, 2004.
62. This point is nicely illustrated in Jacobson, A Divider, Not a Uniter, chap. 1.
63. Jones, “Bush Ratings Show Historical Levels of Polarization.”
64. Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Approval Most Polarized for First-Year President,” Gallup Poll, January 25, 2010.
65. Jeffrey M. Jones, “Obama’s Approval Ratings More Polarized in Year 2 Than Year 1,” Gallup Poll, February 4, 2011.
66. Gallup Daily tracking polls from July to mid-August 2009, including more than 47,000 interviews.
67. Spee Kosloff, Jeff Greenberg, Toni Schmader, Mark Dechesne, and David Weise, “Smearing the Opposition: Implicit and Explicit Stigmatization of the 2008 U.S. Presidential Candidates and the Current U.S. President,” Journal of Experimental Psychology 139 (August 2010): 383–398.
68. Piston, “How Explicit Racial Prejudice Hurt Obama in the 2008 Election,” 431–451.
69. Alan I. Abramowitz, “The Race Factor: White Racial Attitudes and Opinions of Obama,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball, May 12th, 2011.
70. Charlie Cook, “Intensity Matters,” National Journal, October 24, 2009.
71. Democracy Corps poll, June 19–22, 2010.
72. CNN poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation, July 16–21, 2010. See also Adam J. Berinsky, Pollster.com September 13, 2010, www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_shows_false_obama_beliefs.php.
73. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 21–August 5, 2010.
74. Newsweek poll, August 25–26, 2010.
75. As Gary Jacobson points out, some of the mistaken views about Obama were probably driven by opinions about Obama more generally. See “Legislative Success and Political Failure,” pp. 229–230.
76. Pew Research Media Attitudes Survey, July 22–26, 2009.
77. Logan Dancey and Paul Goren, “Party Identification, Issue Attitudes, and the Dynamics of Political Debate,” American Journal of Political Science 54 (July 2010): 686–699; Michael Bang Petersen, Rune Slothuus, and Lise Togeby, “Political Parties and Value Consistency in Public Opinion Formation,” Public Opinion Quarterly 74 (Fall 2010): 530–550; Matthew Levendusky, The Partisan Sort (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009); Adam J. Berinsky, In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009). See also Abramowitz, The Disappearing Center; Morris P. Fiorina, with Samuel J. Abrams and Jeremy C. Pope, Culture Wars? The Myth of Polarized America, 3rd ed. (New York: Pearson Longman, 2011); Joseph Bafumi and Robert Y. Shapiro, “A New Partisan Voter,” Journal of Politics 71 (January 2009): 1–24; Geoffrey C. Layman, Thomas M. Carsey, and Juliana Menasce Horowitz, “Party Polarization in American Politics: Characteristics, Causes, and Consequences,” Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006): 83–110; Jacobson, A Divider, Not a Uniter.
78. Gallup poll, June 11–13, 2010.
79. Gallup poll, June 23–24, 2009.
80. Gallup poll, May 24–25, 2010.
81. See, for example, the New York Times/CBS News poll, June 12–16, 2009; New York Times/CBS News poll, September 19–23, 2009.
82. Ceci Connolly and Jon Cohen, “Most Want Health Reform But Fear Its Side Effects,” Washington Post, June 24, 2009. These comments are based on a Washington Post-ABC News poll, June 18–21, 2009.
83. Washington Post-ABC News poll, June 18–21, 2009; CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, July 31–August 3, 2009; USA Today/Gallup poll, September 11–13, 2009; Gallup poll, November 4–7, 2010.
84. Gallup poll, July 24–25, 2009. See also Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, July 24–27, 2009; Time poll, July 27–28, 2009; New York Times/CBS News poll, July 24–28, 2009; CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, July 31–August 3, 2009; and Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, July 7–14, 2009.
85. Washington Post-ABC News poll, August 13–17, 2009.
86. NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, August 15–17, 2009.
87. Washington Post-ABC News poll, December 10–13, 2009. See also Washington Post-ABC News poll, November 12–15, 2009; Gallup poll, November 5–8, 2009.
88. Gallup poll, July 24–25, 2009.
89. New York Times/CBS News poll, July 24–28, 2009.
90. USA Today/Gallup poll, July 10–12, 2009; New York Times/CBS News poll, September 19–23, 2009.
91. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, June 10–14, 2009.
92. New York Times/CBS News poll, July 24–28, 2009; CBS News poll, August 27–31, 2009; New York Times/CBS News poll, September 19–23, 2009.
93. New York Times/CBS News poll, July 24–28, 2009. See also CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, July 31–August 3, 2009.
94. Frank Newport, “Americans on Healthcare Reform: Top 10 Takeaways,” Gallup Poll, July 31, 2009.
95. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 23–26, 2009. See also poll of December 9–13, 2009.
96. Robert Pear, “House Committee Approves Health Care Bill,” New York Times, July 16, 2009.
97. Washington Post-ABC News poll, December 10–13, 2009.
98. This discussion is based on Edwards, On Deaf Ears, chaps. 4–9.
99. See Brian J. Gaines, James H. Kuklinski, Paul J. Quirk, Buddy Peyton, and Jay Verkuilen, “Same Facts, Different Interpretations: Partisan Motivation and Opinion on Iraq,” Journal of Politics 69 (November 2007): 957–974; Edwards, On Deaf Ears, chap. 9; Larry Bartels, “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions,” Political Behavior 24 (June 2002): 117–150.
100. James N. Druckman, “Using Credible Advice to Overcome Framing Effects,” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 17, no. 1(2001): 62–82; James N. Druckman, “On the Limits of Framing Effects: Who Can Frame?” Journal of Politics 63 (November 2001): 1041–1066; Joanne M. Miller and Jon A. Krosnick, “News Media Impact on the Ingredients of Presidential Evaluations: Politically Knowledgeable Citizens Are Guided by a Trusted Source,” American Journal of Political Science 44 (April 2000): 301–315.
101. Rune Slothuus and Claes H. de Vreese, “Political Parties, Motivated Reasoning, and Issue Framing Effects,” Journal of Politics (July 2010): 630–645; Charles S. Taber, Damon Cann, and Simona Kucsova, “The Motivated Processing of Political Arguments,” Political Behavior 31 (June 2009): 137–155; Charles S. Taber and Milton Lodge, “Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs,” American Journal of Political Science 50 (July 2006): 755–769; John T. Jost, “The End of the End of Ideology,” American Psychologist 61, no. 7 (2006): 651–670; Richard R. Lau and David P. Redlawsk, How Voters Decide: Information Processing in Election Campaigns (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006); Milton Lodge and Charles S. Taber, “The Automaticity of Affect for Political Leaders, Groups, and Issues: An Experimental Test of the Hot Cognition Hypothesis,” Political Psychology 26 (June 2005): 455–482; David P. Redlawsk, “Hot Cognition or Cool Consideration: Testing the Effects of Motivated Reasoning on Political Decision Making,” Journal of Politics 64 (November 2002): 1021–1044; Milton Lodge and Ruth Hamill, “A Partisan Schema for Political Information Processing,” American Political Science Review 80 (June 1986): 505–519; Charles Lord, Lee Ross, and Mark R. Lepper, “Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories on Subsequently Considered Evidence,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (November 1979): 2098–2109.
102. John R. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp. 102–113; Danielle Shani, “Knowing Your Colors: Can Knowledge Correct for Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions?” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 2006.
103. Larry M. Bartels, “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions,” Political Behavior 24 (June 2002): 117–150.
104. Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels, “It Feels Like We’re Thinking: The Rationalizing Voter and Electoral Democracy,” paper delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Philadelphia, 2006. See also Larry M. Bartels, Unequal Democracy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008), chap. 5; Mathew J. Lebo and Daniel Cassino, “The Aggregated Consequences of Motivated Reasoning and the Dynamics of Partisan Presidential Approval,” Political Psychology 28 (December 2007): 719–746; Jacobson, A Divider, Not a Uniter; DeBoef and Kellstedt, “The Political (and Economic) Origins of Consumer Confidence.”
105. Steven Kull, Clay Ramsay, and Evan Lewis, “Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War,” Political Science Quarterly 118 (Winter 2003–2004): 569–598; Edwards, Governing by Campaigning, chap. 3; Jacobson, A Divider, Not a Uniter, chaps. 5–6; Gaines, Kuklinski, Quirk, Peyton, and Verkuilen, “Same Facts, Different Interpretations: Partisan Motivation and Opinion on Iraq,” 957–974.
106. Gary C. Jacobson, “The Public, the President, and the War in Iraq,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, September 1–4, 2005, p. 35.
107. Paul D. Sweeney and Kathy L. Gruber, “Selective Exposure: Voter Information Preferences and the Watergate Affair,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 46, no. 6 (1984): 1208–1221.
108. Mark Fischle, “Mass Response to the Lewinsky Scandal: Motivated Reasoning or Bayesian Updating?” Political Psychology 21 (March 2000): 135–159.
109. Edwards, On Deaf Ears, chap. 9.
110. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, p. 48; William G. Jacoby, “The Sources of Liberal–Conservative Thinking: Education and Conceptualization,” Political Behavior 10 (December 1988): 316–332; Robert C. Luskin, “Measuring Political Sophistication,” American Journal of Political Science 31 (November 1987): 856–899; W. Russell Neuman, The Paradox of Mass Politics; Knowledge and Opinion in the American Electorate (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1986); Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson, “The Two Faces of Issue Voting,” American Political Science Review 74 (March 1980): 78–91; Philip E. Converse, “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics,” in Ideology and Discontent, ed. David E. Apter (New York: Free Press, 1964).
111. James H. Kuklinski, Paul J. Quirk, Jennifer Jerit, David Schwieder, and Robert F. Rich, “Misinformation and the Currency of Democratic Citizenship,” Journal of Politics 62 (August 2000): 790–816. See also Brendan Nyhan, “Why the ‘Death Panel’ Myth Wouldn’t Die: Misinformation in the Health Care Reform Debate,” The Forum 8, no. 1 (2010). Accessed at www.bepress.com/forum/vol8/iss1/art5.
112. Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler, “When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions,” Political Behavior 32 (June 2010): 303–330; David P. Redlawsk, Andrew J. W. Civettini, and Karen M. Emmerson, “The Affective Tipping Point: Do Motivated Reasoners Ever ‘Get It’?” Political Psychology 31 (August 2010): 563–593.
113. Ruth Mayo, Yaacov Schul, and Eugene Burnstein, “ ‘I Am Not Guilty’ vs ‘I Am Innocent’: Successful Negation May Depend on the Schema Used for Its Encoding,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 40 (July 2004): 433–449.
114. Norbert Schwarz, Lawrence J. Sanna, Ian Skurnik, and Carolyn Yoon, “Metacognitive Experiences and the Intricacies of Setting People Straight: Implications for Debiasing and Public Information Campaigns,” Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 39 (2007): 127–161; Ian Skurnik, Carolyn Yoon, Denise C. Park, and Norbert Schwarz, “How Warnings about False Claims Become Recommendations,” Journal of Consumer Research 31(March 2005): 713–724.
115. John Bullock, “Experiments on Partisanship and Public Opinion: Party Cues, False Beliefs, and Bayesian Updating,” Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University, 2007.
116. John R. Zaller, “Elite Leadership of Mass Opinion: New Evidence from the Gulf War,” in Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War, ed. W. Lance Bennett and David L. Paletz (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994); Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion.
117. Robert Y. Shapiro and Lawrence R. Jacobs, “The Democratic Paradox: The Waning of Popular Sovereignty and the Pathologies of American Politics,” in The Oxford Handbook of American Public Opinion and the Media, ed. Robert Y. Shapiro and Lawrence R. Jacobs (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2011).
118. David Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Choices, Values, and Frames,” American Psychologist 39 (April 1984): 341–350; David Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,” Econometrica 47 (March 1979): 263–292.
119. Susan T. Fiske, “Attention and Weight in Person Perception: The Impact of Negative and Extreme Behavior,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 38, no. 6 (1980): 889–906; David L. Hamilton and Mark P. Zanna, “Differential Weighting of Favorable and Unfavorable Attributes in Impressions of Personality,” Journal of Experimental Research in Personality 6, nos. 2–3 (1972): 204–212.
120. Richard Lau, “Two Explanations for Negativity Effects in Political Behavior,” American Journal of Political Science 29 (February 1985): 119–138.
121. See, for example, David W. Brady and Daniel P. Kessler, “Who Supports Health Reform? PS: Political Science and Politics 43 (January 2010): 1–5.
122. Michael D. Cobb and James H. Kuklinski, “Changing Minds: Political Arguments and Political Persuasion,” American Journal of Political Science 41 (January 1997): 88–121. On the role of emotion in political decision making, see Joanne M. Miller, “Examining the Mediators of Agenda Setting: A New Experimental Paradigm Reveals the Role of Emotions,” Political Psychology 28 (December 2007): 689–717; George E. Marcus, W. Russell Neuman, and Michael MacKuen, Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000); George E. Marcus, The Sentimental Citizen (University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2002); Michael MacKuen, Jennifer Wolak, Luke Keele, and George E. Marcus, “Civic Engagements: Resolute Partisanship or Reflective Deliberation,” American Journal of Political Science 54 (April 2010): 440–458.
123. Gallup Poll, “Majorities in U.S. View Gov’t as Too Intrusive and Powerful,” October 13, 2010.
124. Charlie Cook, “Colossal Miscalculation on Health Care,” National Journal, January 16, 2010.
125. Charlie Cook, “Too Much All At Once,” Off to the Races, February 2, 2010.
126. Washington Post-ABC News poll, January 12–15, 2010.
127. Quoted in Peter Baker, “Education of a President,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2010. See also Transcript: “President Barack Obama,” 60 Minutes, Interview by Steve Kroft, November 4, 2010.
1. Barack Obama, Dreams from My Father (New York: Crown Publishers, 1995), p. 106.
2. Jonathan Alter, The Promise: President Obama, Year One (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), p. 46.
3. Ken Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” New Yorker, January 25, 2010, p. 43.
4. These figures are updates of the Postscript of Martha Joynt Kumar, Managing the President’s Message: The White House Communications Operation (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2010), pp. 314–319, provided by Professor Kumar.
5. Mark Knoller, CBS News.
6. Jeff Zeleny, “Obama Returning to Trail to Sell Stimulus Plan,” New York Times, February 9, 2009.
7. Alter, The Promise, pp. 126–127.
8. Mark Leibovich, “Between Barack Obama and the Press—Robert Gibbs,” New York Times, December 21, 2008; Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” p. 43.
9. Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” pp. 41–42.
10. Rachel L. Swarns, “Obama Brings Flush Times for Black News Media,” New York Times, March 28, 2009.
11. These figures are updates of the Postscript of Kumar, Managing the President’s Message, provided by Professor Kumar.
12. Brian Stelter, “Obama to Field Questions Posted by YouTube Users,” New York Times, February 1, 2010.
13. Dana Milbank, “Stay Tuned for More of ‘The Obama Show’,” Washington Post, June 24, 2009.
14. These figures are updates of the Postscript of Kumar, Managing the President’s Message, provided by Professor Kumar.
15. Ibid.
16. Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” p. 41.
17. Glenn Thrush, “Obama Makes the Sale,” Politico.com, December 17, 2010.
18. Mark and Helene Cooper, “White House Eager to Project Image of Competence in Relief Efforts,” New York Times, January 22, 2010.
19. Brian Stelter, “Fox’s Volley with Obama Intensifying,” New York Times, October 12, 2009; Jim Rutenberg, “Behind the War between White House and Fox,” New York Times, October 23, 2009.
20. Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” p. 47.
21. Alter, The Promise, p. 46.
22. Quoted in Dan Balz, “For Obama, a Tough Year To Get the Message Out,” Washington Post, January 10, 2010.
23. See Charles O. Jones, The Presidency in a Separated System, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2005), chap. 5.
24. On continuity in foreign policy despite changes in the occupant of the presidency, see William J. Dixon and Stephen M. Gardner, “Presidential Succession and the Cold War: An Analysis of Soviet American Relations, 1948–1988,” Journal of Politics 54 (February 1992): 156–175.
25. Quoted in John C. Donovan, The Politics of Poverty, 2nd ed. (Indianapolis, IN: Pegasus, 1973), p. 111.
26. See an interview with Bill Clinton by Jack Nelson and Robert J. Donovan, “The Education of a President,” Los Angeles Times Magazine, August 1, 1993, p. 39. See also Bill Clinton, My Life (New York: Knopf, 2004), p. 556.
27. Quoted in Balz, “For Obama, a Tough Year to Get the Message Out.”
28. George Packer, “Obama’s Lost Year,” New Yorker, March 15, 2010, p. 46.
29. Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism News Coverage Index for September 21–27, 2009.
30. Michael D. Shear, “Times Square Bomb, Oil Spill Complicate White House Agenda,” Washington Post, May 3, 2010.
31. See George C. Edwards III, The Strategic President: Persuasion and Opportunity in Presidential Leadership (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009), pp. 96–104.
32. Quoted in Michael D. Shear, “White House Revamps Communications Strategy,” Washington Post, February 15, 2010.
33. Mark Hertsgaard, On Bended Knee: The Press and the Reagan Presidency (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1988), pp. 107–108; Larry Speakes, Speaking Out (New York: Scribner’s, 1988), p. 301.
34. Quoted in Balz, “For Obama, a Tough Year to Get the Message Out.”
35. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “On Abortion, Obama Is Drawn Into Debate He Hoped to Avoid,” New York Times, May 15, 2009.
36. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 24–27, 2009; Pew Research Center for the People and the Press News Interest survey, July 20–26, 2009.
37. “Statement by the President,” White House Transcript, July 24, 2009.
38. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press News Interest survey, July 31–August 1, 2009.
39. David M. Herszenhorn and Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Health Plan Opponents Make Voices Heard,” New York Times, August 4, 2009.
40. Howard Kurtz, “Journalists, Left Out of the Debate: Few Americans Seem to Hear Health Care Facts,” Washington Post, August 24, 2009.
41. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, August 11–17, 2009.
42. Shear, “White House Revamps Communications Strategy.”
43. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press News Interest Survey, February 26–March 1, 2010.
44. Peter Baker, “Obama Reverses Rules on U.S. Abortion Aid,” New York Times, January 24, 2009; Howard Kurtz, “Obama Attempts to Manage His Media Presence,” Washington Post, February 9, 2009.
45. Quoted in Jason Horowitz, “Obama Speechwriter Ben Rhodes Is Penning a Different Script for the World Stage,” Washington Post, January 12, 2010.
46. Michael D. Shear, “Riding Herd on the Message: White House Guides Fervent Sotomayor Supporters,” Washington Post, June 15, 2009.
47. Quoted in Balz, “For Obama, a Tough Year to Get the Message Out.”
48. Ceci Connolly, “Obama Trims Sails on Health Reform,” Washington Post, August 2, 2009.
49. Lawrence R. Jacobs and Robert Y. Shapiro, Politicians Don’t Pander (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000), p. 140, agree with this point.
50. Quoted in Balz, “For Obama, a Tough Year to Get the Message Out.”
51. Michael D. Shear and Ceci Connolly, “Debate’s Path Caught Obama by Surprise; Public Option Wasn’t Intended as Major Focus,” Washington Post, August 19, 2009; Dan Balz, “Concern, Doubts from the Left on Obama’s Health-Care Plan,” Washington Post, August 23, 2009; Alter, The Promise, 295.
52. “Remarks by President Bush in a Conversation on Strengthening Social Security,” Greece, New York, March 24, 2005.
53. David Gergen, Eyewitness to Power: The Essence of Leadership (New York: Simon & Schuster 2000), pp. 54, 186. Also see Kumar, Managing the President’s Message, chaps. 2–3.
54. Philip E. Converse, “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics,” in Ideology and Discontent, ed. David E. Apter (New York: Free Press, 1964), pp. 206–261.
55. Charles W. Ostrom, Jr. and Dennis M. Simon, “The President’s Public,” American Journal of Political Science 32 (November 1988): 1096–1119.
56. Joe S. Foote, “Ratings Decline of Presidential Television,” Journal of Broadcasting and Electronic Media 32 (Spring 1988): 225–230; A. C. Nielsen, Nielsen Newscast (North-brook, IL: Nielson, 1975); Edwards, On Deaf Ears, chap. 8; George C. Edwards III, Governing by Campaigning, 2nd ed. (New York: Longman, 2007), pp. 86–94.
57. Matthew A. Baum and Samuel Kernell, “Has Cable Ended the Golden Age of Presidential Television?” American Political Science Review 93 (March 1999): 99–114.
58. Nielsen Company.
59. Peter Baker, “Obama Selling His Economic Plan on the Airwaves, Again,” New York Times, March 24, 2009.
60. Benjamin Toff, “Viewers Pass on Obama,” New York Times, June 25, 2009; Tobin Harshaw, “Hawking Health Care in Prime Time,” New York Times, June 26, 2009.
61. “TV Ratings: President Obama Pulls in Record ‘View’ Audience,” July 31, 2010.
62. Transcript: “President Barack Obama,” 60 Minutes, Interview by Steve Kroft, November 4, 2010.
63. Gergen, Eyewitness to Power, p. 54. See also Kumar, Managing the President’s Message, chap. 1.
64. Gergen, Eyewitness to Power, p. 54.
65. CBS News/New York Times poll, February 5–10, 2010.
66. Bloomberg Poll conducted by Selzer & Co., July 9–12, 2010.
67. CBS News/New York Times poll, September 10–14, 2010.
68. Bloomberg News National Poll, October 24–26, 2010.
69. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 1–5, 2010.
70. Bloomberg News National Poll, October 24–26, 2010.
71. Quoted in Mark Leibovich, “Obama’s Message Maven Finds Fingers Pointing at Him,” New York Times, March 6, 2010.
72. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press and the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life polls, March 9–12, 2009, and July 21–August 5, 2010. See also Newsweek poll of August 25–26, 2010, taken by Princeton Survey Research Associates International; and Time poll, August 16–17, 2010.
73. See, for example, Elizabeth McCaughey, The Kudlow Report, CNBC, June 16, 2009; Elizabeth McCaughey, “Dissecting the Kennedy Health Bill,” Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2009; Elizabeth McCaughey, “How Health Care ‘Reforms’ Will Mess with Your Coverage,” New York Daily News, June 23, 2009. For detailed coverage of the conservative propagation of the claim, see Brendan Nyhan, “Why the ‘Death Panel’ Myth Wouldn’t Die: Misinformation in the Health Care Reform Debate,” The Forum 8, no. 1 (2010). Accessed at www.bepress.com/forum/vol8/iss1/art5.
74. Howard Kurtz, “Death Panels Smite Journalism,” Washington Post, August 24, 2009.
75. Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” pp. 44–46.
76. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, News Interest Index survey, conducted August 14–17, 2009. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, August 11–17, 2009.
77. NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, August 15–17, 2009.
78. Mark Knoller, “Obama’s First Year: By the Numbers,” CBS News, January 21, 2009.
79. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Obama to Forge a Greater Role on Health Care,” New York Times, June 7, 2009.
80. Tobin Harshaw, “Hawking Health Care in Prime Time,” New York Times, June 26, 2009.
81. Quoted in Michael D. Shear and Shailagh Murray, “President Is Set to ‘Take the Baton’: As Skepticism on Health Reform Mounts, He Will Intensify His Efforts,” Washington Post, July 20, 2009.
82. Jim Rutenberg and Jackie Calmes, “White House Adapts to New Playbook in Health Care Debate,” New York Times, August 11, 2009.
83. Balz, “Concern, Doubts from the Left on Obama’s Health-Care Plan.”
84. Anne E. Kornblut, “Obama to Push Health Care Reform in Town Hall Meetings,” Washington Post, August 11, 2009.
85. Ben Pershing, “Groups Take Health-Reform Debate to Airwaves,” Washington Post, August 5, 2009; Emily Cadei, “Health Care Ad Wars Heat Up as Recess Begins,” CQ Daily, August 4, 2009.
86. See Edwards, On Deaf Ears, pp. 130–131, 140–142; Edwards, Governing by Campaigning, pp. 82–84.
87. Nielsen Wire, September 10, 2009.
88. Quoted in Mark Leibovich, “Obama the Omnipresent,” New York Times, September 18, 2009. See also, Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” p. 44; and Peter Baker, “Obama Complains About the News Cycle but Manipulates It, Worrying Some,” New York Times, July 24, 2009.
89. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Obama Takes a Health Care Hiatus,” New York Times, October 21, 2009.
90. See also Gallup poll, March 17, 2010; CBS News/New York Times poll, March 18–21, 2010.
91. CBS News/New York Times poll, September 19–23, 2009.
92. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press News Interest survey, September 3–6, 2009. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press News Interest survey, September 30–October 4, 2009; and CBS News/New York Times poll, September 19–23, 2009.
93. ABC News, This Week Transcript: “President Barack Obama,” accessed on September 20, 2009, at abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/Politics/transcript-president-barack-obama/story?id=8618937. See also Alter, The Promise, pp. 262, 420, 424.
94. Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, July 8–13, 2010.
95. Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, January 7–12, 2010.
96. Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, January 7–12, 2010. Based on a partial sample (N=511).
97. Alter, The Promise, p. 420.
98. Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, June 9–14, 2011.
99. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “A Rewired Bully Pulpit: Big, Bold and Unproven,” New York Times, November 22, 2008.
100. Helene Cooper, “The Direct Approach,” New York Times, December 18, 2008.
101. Quoted in Stolberg, “A Rewired Bully Pulpit.”
102. Chris Cillizza, “Obama Makes a Point of Speaking of the People, to the People,” Washington Post, December 14, 2008, p. A05.
103. Elham Khatami, “Who listens to Obama’s addresses?” Congress.org, November 8, 2010.
104. Virginia Heffernan, “The YouTube Presidency—Why the Obama Administration Uploads so Much Video,” New York Times, April 12, 2009.
105. Brian Stelter, “Obama to Field Questions Posted by YouTube Users,” New York Times, February 1, 2010.
106. Alter, The Promise, p. 278.
107. Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” p. 45.
108. Kate Phillips, “Obama Rallies the Base on His Supreme Court Choice,” CQ Today, May 27, 2009.
109. Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” p. 44.
110. People typically turn to the Web sites of traditional news sources for their news, however. See blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/election-gives-online-news-sites-major-traffic-boost/; and Pew
111. Pew Internet & American Life Project, Understanding the Participatory News Consumer, March 2010; Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, December 1–5, 2010.
112. Michael A. Fletcher and Jose Antonio Vargas, “The White House, Open for Questions,” Washington Post, March 27, 2009, p. A02; Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Obama Makes History in Live Internet Video Chat,” New York Times, March 27, 2009.
113. Stolberg, “A Rewired Bully Pulpit.”
114. Michael D. Shear, “Campaign Urges Reinstating Ban on Offshore Oil Drilling,” Washington Post, April 30, 2010.
115. Quoted in Stolberg, “A Rewired Bully Pulpit.”
116. Pew Internet & American Life Project 2008 Post-Election Survey, November 20–December 4, 2008.
117. Lois Romano, “ ’08 Campaign Guru Focuses on Grass Roots,” Washington Post, January 13, 2009, p. A13.
118. Peter Wallsten, “Retooling Obama’s Campaign Machine for the Long Haul,” Los Angeles Times, January 14, 2009; Associated Press, “Obama Launches Grass-Roots Campaign,” January 17, 2009.
119. Matt Bai, “Democrat in Chief?” New York Times Sunday Magazine, June 13, 2010.
120. Ceci Connolly, “Obama Policymakers Turn to Campaign Tools; Network of Supporters Tapped on Health-Care Issues,” Washington Post, December 4, 2008, p. A1.
121. Quoted in ibid.
122. Quoted in Cillizza, “Obama Makes a Point of Speaking of the People, to the People.”
123. Quoted in Wallsten, “Retooling Obama’s Campaign Machine for the Long Haul.”
124. Jose Antonio Vargas, “Obama Team Finds It Hard to Adapt Its Web Savvy to Government,” Washington Post, March 2, 2009, p. A3.
125. Chris Cillizza, “Obama Enlists Campaign Army in Budget Fight,” Washington Post, March 16, 2009, p. A1.
126. Dan Eggen, “Obama’s Machine Sputters in Effort to Push Budget; Grass-Roots Campaign Has Little Effect,” Washington Post, April 6, 2009, p. A3.
127. Peter Slevin, “Obama Turns to Grass Roots to Push Health Reform,” Washington Post, June 24, 2009.
128. Slevin, “Obama Turns to Grass Roots to Push Health Reform”; and Eli Saslow, “Grass-Roots Battle Tests the Obama Movement,” Washington Post, August 23, 2009.
129. Saslow, “Grass-Roots Battle Tests the Obama Movement.”
130. Jeff Zeleny, “Health Debate Fails to Ignite Obama’s Grass Roots,” New York Times, August 15, 2009.
131. Alter, The Promise, pp. 252, 398.
132. Amy Gardner, “Midterms Pose Major Challenge for Obama’s Grass-Roots Political Organization,” Washington Post, March 28, 2010.
133. Philip Rucker, “Obama Mobilizes Volunteers to Urge Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’,” Washington Post, December 17, 2009.
134. Rucker, “Obama Mobilizes Volunteers to Urge Repeal of ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’.”
135. Slevin, “Obama Turns to Grass Roots to Push Health Reform.”
136. See, for example, William A. Gamson and Andre Modigliani, “The Changing Culture of Affirmative Action,” in Research in Political Sociology, vol. 3, ed. Richard D. Braungart (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1987), p. 143; William A. Gamson and Andre Modigliani, “Media Discourse and Public Opinion on Nuclear Power: A Constructionist Approach,” American Journal of Sociology 95 (July 1989): 1–37; William A. Gamson, Talking Politics (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1992); Donald R. Kinder and Lynn M. Sanders, Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996); and Zhongdang Pan and Gerald M. Kosicki, “Framing Analysis: An Approach to News Discourse,” Political Communication 10, no. 1 (1993): 55–75.
137. Quoted in Gerald M. Boyd, “ ‘General Contractor’ of the White House Staff,” New York Times, March 4, 1986, sec. A, p. 22.
138. Converse, “The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics.”
139. John R. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992), pp. 42–48; James H. Kuklinski and Norman Hurley, “On Hearing and Interpreting Messages: A Cautionary Tale of Citizen Cue-Taking,” Journal of Politics 56 (August 1994): 729–751; Jeffrey Mondak, “Source Cues and Policy Approval: The Cognitive Dynamics of Public Support for the Reagan Agenda,” American Journal of Political Science 37 (February 1993): 186–212.
140. There is some evidence that the president’s rhetoric can prime the criteria on which the public evaluates him. See James N. Druckman and Justin W. Holmes, “Does Presidential Rhetoric Matter? Priming and Presidential Approval,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 34 (December 2004): 755–778.
141. “Remarks by the President on the Importance of Passing a Historic Energy Bill,” White House Transcript, June 25, 2009.
142. For a good discussion of this point, see Jacobs and Shapiro, Politicians Don’t Pander, pp. 49–52.
143. See, for example, William B. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1986); William B. Riker, The Strategy of Rhetoric: Campaigning for the American Constitution (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1996); William B. Riker, “The Heresthetics of Constitution Making: The Presidency in 1787, with Comments on Determinism and Rational Choice,” American Political Science Review 78 (March 1984): 1–6.
144. Byron E. Shafer and William J. M. Claggett, The Two Majorities: The Issue Context of Modern American Politics (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995). See also James N. Druckman, Lawrence R. Jacobs, and Eric Ostermeier, “Candidate Strategies to Prime Issues and Image,” Journal of Politics 66 (November 2004): 1180–1202.
145. John R. Petrocik, “Divided Government: Is It All in the Campaigns,” in The Politics of Divided Government, ed. Gary W. Cox and Samuel Kernell (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991); John R. Petrocik, “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study,” American Journal of Political Science (August 1996): 825–850.
146. Andrew Gelman and Gary King, “Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable”? British Journal of Political Science 23 (Part 4, 1993): 409–451.
147. See Stephen Skowronek, “Leadership by Definition: First Term Reflections on George W. Bush’s Political Stance,” Perspectives on Politics 3 (December 2005): 818.
148. An exception to the experimental nature of framing studies is William G. Jacoby, “Issue Framing and Public Opinion on Government Spending,” American Journal of Political Science 44 (October 2000): 750–767. He employed NES data to present both frames to the same sample. Even here, however, the framing occurred in the context of an interview in which different frames were presented at different times.
149. James N. Druckman and Kjersten R. Nelson, “Framing and Deliberation: How Citizens’ Conversations Limit Elite Influence,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (October 2003): 729–745.
150. James N. Druckman, “Using Credible Advice to Overcome Framing Effects,” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 17 (April 2001): 62–82.
151. Donald P. Haider-Markel and Mark R. Joslyn, “Gun Policy, Opinion, Tragedy, and Blame Attribution: The Conditional Influence of Issue Frames,” Journal of Politics 63 (May 2001): 520–543.
152. Gregory A. Huber and John S. Lapinski, “The ‘Race Card’ Revisited: Assessing Racial Priming in Policy Contests,” American Journal of Political Science 50 (April 2006): 421–440.
153. Druckman and Nelson, “Framing and Deliberation.”
154. Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, p. 99, chap. 9. See also Adam J. Berinsky, “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict,” Journal of Politics 69 (November 2007): 975–997.
155. See Paul M. Sniderman and Sean M. Theriault, “The Structure of Political Argument and the Logic of Issue Framing,” in Studies in Public Opinion: Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error and Change, ed. Willem E. Saris and Paul M. Sniderman (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004). Also see Paul M. Sniderman, “Taking Sides: A Fixed Choice Theory of Political Reasoning,” in Elements of Reason: Understanding and Expanding the Limits of Political Rationality, ed. Arthur Lupia, Mathew D. McCubbins, and Samuel L. Popkin (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000); James N. Druckman, “Political Preference Formation: Competition, Deliberation, and the (Ir)relevance of Framing Effects,” American Political Science Review 98 (November 2004): 671–686.
156. John Zaller, “Elite Leadership of Mass Opinion: New Evidence from the Gulf War,” in Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War, ed. W. Lance Bennett and David L. Paletz (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994), pp. 186–209.
157. See Brian J. Gaines, James H. Kuklinski, Paul J. Quirk, Buddy Peyton, and Jay Verkuilen, “Same Facts, Different Interpretations: Partisan Motivation and Opinion on Iraq,” Journal of Politics 69 (November 2007): 957–974; Edwards, On Deaf Ears, chap. 9; Larry Bartels, “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions,” Political Behavior 24 (June 2002): 117–150.
158. Carl Hulse, “ ‘Recovery’ Is In; ‘Stimulus’ Is So Seven Months Ago,” New York Times, November 26, 2008.
159. Peter Baker, “The Words Have Changed, but Have the Policies?” New York Times, April 3, 2009.
160. Jonathan Weisman, “Obama Allies Find Words Fail Them,” Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2009, p. A4.
161. Drew Armstrong, “Axelrod Fuels Democratic Message Machine for Health Care Overhaul,” CQ Today, May 13, 2009; Robert Pear, “Democrats to Develop Plan to Sell Health Care,” New York Times, May 13, 2009.
162. Quoted in Perry Bacon Jr., “Language Lessons for Democrats, from the Political Brain of Drew Westen,” Washington Post, May 18, 2010.
163. Alter, The Promise, pp. 272–274.
164. Peter Baker, “Familiar Obama Phrase Being Groomed as a Slogan,” New York Times, May 16, 2009.
165. Shear, “White House Revamps Communications Strategy.”
166. White House Transcript, “Remarks by the President at GOP House Issues Conference,” January 29, 2010.
167. Alessandra Stanley, “The News Conference: The Same, and Different,” New York Times, February 10, 2009.
168. Quoted in Ronald Brownstein, “The Solvency Solution, National Journal, February 7, 2009.
169. Nate Silver, “The Proliferation of ‘Pork’,” FiveThirtyEight, February 4, 2009.
170. Pew Research Center’s News Index Survey, February 6–9, 2009.
171. Alter, The Promise, p. 131.
172. Slevin, “Obama Turns to Grass Roots to Push Health Reform.”
173. Jonathan Alter, The Promise, p. 33.
174. Michael D. Shear, “Poll Results Drive Rhetoric of Obama’s Health-Care Message,” Washington Post, July 30, 2009.
175. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Jeff Zeleny, and Carl Hulse, “The Long Road Back,” New York Times, March 21, 2010.
176. Ibid.
177. Interview with George Stephanopoulos on of ABC, January 20, 2010.
178. “Remarks by the President on Financial Reform,” White House, January 21, 2010.
179. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “White House and Allies Set to Build Up Health Law,” New York Times, June 6, 2010.
180. Ibid.
181. Frank Newport, “Wall Street Reform from the People’s Perspective,” Polling Matters, April 23, 2010.
182. Gallup poll, April 17–18, 2010, using a split national sample.
183. White House Transcript, “Remarks by the President on Wall Street Reform,” April 22, 2010.
184. Mark Jurkowitz, “Terrorism Tops Disasters,” Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism, May 11, 2010.
185. Anne E. Kornblut, “As Right Jabs Continue, White House Debates a Counter-punching Strategy,” Washington Post, September 16, 2009.
186. Shear, “White House Revamps Communications Strategy.”
187. Quoted in Kornblut, “As Right Jabs Continue, White House Debates a Counter-punching Strategy.”
188. Alter, The Promise, pp. 272–274.
189. Karen Tumulty and Juliet Eilperin, “With Oil Spill, White House Struggles to Assert Control of the Unknown,” Washington Post, June 6, 2010.
1. Quoted in Ken Auletta, “Non-Stop News,” New Yorker, January 25, 2010, p. 44. See also Jonathan Alter, The Promise: President Obama, Year One (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), p. 125.
2. Matt Bai, “Democrat in Chief?” New York Times Sunday Magazine, June 13, 2010.
3. Alter, The Promise, p. 126.
4. Scott Wilson, “Bruised by Stimulus Battle, Obama Changed His Approach to Washington,” Washington Post, April 29, 2009.
5. Quoted in Dan Balz, “Testing the Promise of Pragmatism,” Washington Post, January 17, 2010, p. A1. See also George Packer, “Obama’s Lost Year,” New Yorker, March 15, 2010, p. 46.
6. Quoted in Mark Leibovich, “Obama’s Message Maven Finds Fingers Pointing at Him,” New York Times, March 6, 2010.
7. Gallup poll, January 13, 2009.
8. Gallup poll, February 20–22, 2009.
9. CNN/Opinion Research poll, March 12–15, 2009.
10. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, April 21–26, 2010.
11. Alter, The Promise, 262.
12. Time poll conducted by Abt SRBI, October 26–27; 2009; Bloomberg Poll conducted by Selzer & Co., December 3–7, 2009; Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by the Society for Human Resource Management polls, April 21–26 and June 17–20, 2010; CBS News poll, May 20–24, 2010.
13. See Pew Research Center for the People and the Press polls of March 31–April 6 and September 30–October 4, 2009, and February 3–9 and March 11–21, 2010; Washington Post-ABC News polls, February 1–22, 2009, and February 4–8 and April 22–25, 2010; CBS News polls, February 2–5 and May 20–24, 2010; Gallup poll, April 17–18, 2010; ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 22–25, 2010; USA Today/Gallup poll, June 11–13, 2010. But also see Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, Congressional Connection Poll, June 3–6, 2010, which found only plurality support.
14. FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll, May 4–5, 2010; CNN/Opinion Research Corporation polls, May 21–23 and July 16–21, 2010 (the latter poll used a half sample on the question).
15. Bloomberg Poll conducted by Selzer & Co, July 9–12, 2010.
16. ABC News/Washington Post poll, July 7–11, 2010.
17. Gallup poll, January 27, 2009.
18. Gallup poll, January 6–7, 2009. The question did not specifically mention President Obama.
19. USA Today/Gallup poll, February 4, 2009. The question did not specifically mention President Obama.
20. Gallup poll, January 30–February 1, 2009.
21. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press polls, January 7–11, and February 4–8, 2009.
22. CBS News/New York Times polls of January 11–15, and February 2–4, 2009.
23. Lydia Saad, “Stimulus Support Edges Higher, Now 59%,” Gallup poll, February 11, 2009.
24. The Washington Post-ABC News poll of February 19–22, 2009, found that 64 percent of the public supported the bill shortly after it was passed. In this case, the question included reference to tax cuts and aid to states and individuals but did not mention Obama or the Democrats.
25. USA Today/Gallup poll, August 6–9, 2009.
26. CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, January 8–10, 2010.
27. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, April 21–26, 2010. See also CBS News/New York Times poll, April 5–12, 2010.
28. CBS News/New York Times poll, September 10–14, 2010. See also ABC News/Washington Post poll, September 30–October 3, 2010.
29. Quoted in Dan Balz, “For Obama, a Tough Year to Get the Message Out,” Washington Post, January 10, 2010.
30. Peter Baker, “The President Whose Words Once Soared,” New York Times, November 8, 2009.
31. Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, June 12–15.
32. CBS News poll, May 20–24, 2010. See also Bloomberg poll conducted by Selzer & Co, July 9–12, 2010.
33. Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll June 12–15, 2009; CBS News/New York Times polls, June 12–16, July 9–12, and July 24–28, 2009; Washington Post-ABC News poll, July 15–18, 2009. An exception to these findings was the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 22–26, 2009.
34. Gallup poll, June 13–14, 2009.
35. See, for example, Washington Post-ABC News polls of March 26–29, July 15–18, and September 10–12, 2009; AP-GfK poll, September 3–8, 2009, conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media poll; CBS News/New York Times polls, April 1–5, and July 24–28, 2009, and February 5–10, April 5–12, and September 10–14, 2010, and April 15–20 and June 24–28, 2011; USA Today/Gallup poll, July 17–19, 2009; Quinnipiac University poll, January 5–11, 2010; Gallup polls, March 26–28 and August 27–30, 2010.
36. CBS News/New York Times poll, June 12–16, 2009. Fifty percent said they heard or read “some,” 23 percent “not much,” and 5 percent “nothing.”
37. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 24–27, 2009. See also Pew News Interest Index, September 3–6, 2009, which found 40 percent of the public following health care reform very closely.
38. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 20–26, 2009.
39. See, for example, Washington Post-ABC News poll, October 15–19, 2009; USA Today/Gallup poll, October 16–19, 2009; Washington Post-ABC News poll, November 12–15, 2009; CBS News/New York Times poll, March 18–21, 2010.
40. Gary C. Jacobson, “Barack Obama and the American Public: From Candidate to President,” paper presented at the Conference on the Early Obama Presidency, Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster, London, May 14, 2010, pp. 19–21.
41. Frank Newport, “Americans on Healthcare Reform: Top 10 Takeaways,” Gallup Poll, July 31, 2009; Time magazine poll, July 27–28, 2009; Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 23–26, 2009; CBS News/New York Times poll, September 19–23, 2009; Pew Research Center for the People and the Press News Interest survey, September 30–October 4, 2009; Washington Post-ABC News poll, October 15–19, 2009; USA Today/Gallup poll, October 16–19, 2009; and Washington Post-ABC News poll, November 12–15, 2009.
42. Gallup polls, July 17–19, August 6–9, and November 20–22, 2009; and USA Today/Gallup poll, September 11–13.
43. The lower level of no opinion in the March 2010 poll is likely the result of the absence of a prompt for “or do you not have an opinion” in the earlier polls.
44. Gallup poll, September 11–13, 2009.
45. Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad, “Americans on Healthcare Reform: Five Key Realties,” Gallup Poll, October 30, 2009.
46. Peter Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism,” New York Times Magazine, March 14, 2010.
47. CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, September 9, 2009. The sample size was 427.
48. Gallup poll August 6–9, 2009; and USA Today/Gallup poll, September 11–13.
49. Washington Post-ABC News poll, September 10–12, 2009.
50. NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, September 17–20, 2009.
51. Washington Post-ABC News poll, September 10–12, 2009.
52. CBS News/New York Times poll, September 19–23, 2009.
53. Washington Post-ABC News poll, September 10–12, 2009. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press News Interest survey, September 30–October 4, 2009.
54. USA Today/Gallup poll, September 11–13, 2009; CBS News/New York Times poll, September 19–23, 2009.
55. See also CBS News/New York Times poll, September 19–23, 2009; Washington Post-ABC News poll, November 12–15, 2009; Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, January 6–10, 2010.
56. USA Today/Gallup poll, January 20, 2010. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, January 6–10, 2010.
57. Gallup poll, February 23, 2010.
58. David Brady, Daniel Kessler, and Douglas Rivers, “ObamaCare and the Independent Vote,” Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2010; Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll, June 17–22, 2010.
59. Gallup poll, June 11–13, 2010.
60. CBS News/New York Times poll, July 9–12, 2010. The Kaiser Family Foundation poll in July found that favorable views of the bill increased to 50 percent while opposition decreased to 35 percent. The Kaiser Poll regularly found more support for health care reform than other national polls.
61. CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, August 6–10, 2010. The Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, August 16–22, 2010, found a plurality with an unfavorable opinion of the bill.
62. CBS News/New York Times poll, September 10–14, 2010.
63. Gallup poll, January 4–5, 2011.
64. Gallup poll, March 18–19, 2011.
65. ABC News/Washington Post poll, July 7–11, 2010.
66. CBS News/New York Times poll, July 9–12, 2010.
67. See, for example, ABC News/Washington Post polls, April 21–24, June 18–21, and December 10–13, 2009, and June 3–6, 2010. Half samples were used on this question.
68. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, September 30–October 4, 2009.
69. Gallup poll, March 4–7, 2010. See also Gallup poll, March 5–8, 2009.
70. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press polls, June 14–19 and September 30–October 4, 2009.
71. See, for example, the Civitas Poll, July 19–21, 2010, of 600 likely voters in North Carolina by Tel Opinion Research.
72. Lydia Saad, “Americans Firm in Prioritizing Economy Over Environment,” Gallup Poll, March 18, 2010. Gallup polls, March 5–8, 2009, and March 4–7, 2010.
73. Gallup poll, May 24–25, 2010. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, June 10–13, 2010.
74. Gallup poll, March 3–6, 2011.
75. USA Today/Gallup poll, February 20–22, 2009. See also Washington Post-ABC News poll, February 19–22, 2009.
76. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, March 9–12, 2009.
77. Gallup polls, November 5–8 and 20–22, 2009.
78. Gallup poll, December 2, 2009.
79. CBS News/New York Times poll, December 4–8, 2009. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, December 9–13, 2009; and Washington Post-ABC News poll, December 10–13, 2009.
80. Gallup poll, December 2, 2009.
81. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, December 9–13, 2009.
82. CBS News/New York Times poll, December 4–8, 2009.
83. Gallup poll, June 25–26, 2010.
84. CBS News/New York Times polls, September 10–14, 2010, and February 11–14, March 18–21, and June 3–7, 2011.
85. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, June 15-19, 2011. See also See also New York Times/CBS News poll, June 24–28, 2011.
86. Gallup poll, June 25–26, 2011.
87. See also New York Times/CBS News poll, June 12–16; and Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll June 12–15.
88. Gallup poll, November 20–22, 2009.
89. Gallup poll, May 29–31, 2009.
90. Gallup poll, June 22, 2011.
91. New York Times/CBS News polls, June 3–7 and June 24–28, 2011.
92. New York Times/CBS News poll, June 24–28, 2011.
93. Gary C. Jacobson, “The Effects of the George W. Bush Presidency on Partisan Attitudes,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 39 (June 2009): 172–209; Robert S. Erikson, Michael MacKuen, and James A. Stimson, “What Moves Macropartisanship? A Response to Green, Palmquist, and Schickler,” American Political Science Review 92 (December 1998): 901–921; Donald Green, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler, “Macropartisanship: A Replication and Critique,” American Political Science Review 92 (December 1998): 883–899; Michael MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson, “Macropartisanship,” American Political Science Review 83 (December 1989): 1125–1142.
94. Jacobson, “Legislative Success and Political Failure,” pp. 237–238.
95. Gallup poll, September 13–16, 2010, 2010.
96. Jeffrey M. Jones, “Democratic Party ID Drops in 2010, Tying 22-Year Low,” Gallup Poll, January 5, 2011.
97. Gallup Daily tracking polls, January 1–December 31, 2010.
98. USA Today/Gallup poll, May 24–25, 2010.
99. USA Today/Gallup poll, August 27–30, 2010. See also Gallup poll, September 30–October 3, 2010.
100. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, October 27–30, 2010. See also Gallup poll, October 28–31, 2010.
101. Gary C. Jacobson, “The Republican Resurgence in 2010,” Political Science Quarterly 127 (Spring 2011): 35–36.
102. National House Exit Poll, accessed at www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1.
103. David R. Jones and Monika L. McDermott, “The Salience of the Democratic Congress and the 2010 Elections,” PS: Political Science and Politics 44 (April 2011), p. 299.
104. Gallup poll, October 28–31, 2010. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, October 27–30, 2010. The Gallup results on how voters viewed their votes as support or opposition to the president were very similar to those of the National House Exit Poll, accessed at www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1.
105. National House Exit Poll, accessed at www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1.
106. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, August 25–September 6, 2010, among 2,816 registered voters, including 2,053 voters considered the most likely to vote on November 2.
107. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, December 1–5, 2010.
108. Lymari Morales, “In U.S., 67% Support Repealing ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,’ ” Gallup poll, December 9, 2010.
109. USA Today/Gallup polls, August 27–30, November 19–21, and December 10–12, 2010; Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, December 9–12, 2010; ABC News/Washington Post poll, December 9–12, 2010; CBS News polls, August 20–24, 2010, and November 29–December 1, 2010; CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, November 11–14, 2010; NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart and Bill McInturff, August 5–8, and September 22–26, 2010; CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, September 10–14, September 21–23, October 21–26, and November 11–14, 2010; Bloomberg National poll, December 4–7.
110. See also Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, December 1–5, 2010.
111. Andrew Kohut, “Obama’s 2010 Challenge: Wake Up Liberals, Calm Down Independents,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, December 17, 2009.
112. Quoted in Elizabeth Drew, Showdown: The Struggle Between the Gingrich Congress and the Clinton White House (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), p. 66.
113. Quoted in Bob Woodward, The Choice (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), p. 22.
114. Quoted in Karen Travers, “Exclusive: President Obama: We Lost Touch with American People Last Year,” ABC World News with Diane Sawyer, January 20, 2010.
115. Quoted in Peter Baker, “Education of a President,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2010. See also the president’s remarks in Ron Fournier, “Obama 2.0,” National Journal, October 23, 2010, pp. 27–28. See also, Transcript: “President Barack Obama,” 60 Minutes, Interview by Steve Kroft, November 4, 2010.
116. Quoted in Glenn Thrush, “Obama Makes the Sale,” Politico.com, December 17, 2010.
117. Elting E. Morison, ed., The Letters of Theodore Roosevelt (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1951–54), vol. 3, p. 23.
1. George C. Edwards III, The Strategic President: Persuasion and Opportunity in Presidential Leadership (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press), chaps. 4–5; George C. Edwards III, At the Margins: Presidential Leadership of Congress (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989), chaps. 9–10; Jon R. Bond and Richard Fleisher, The President in the Legislative Arena (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990), chap. 8; Richard Fleisher, Jon R. Bond, and B. Dan Wood, “Which Presidents Are Uncommonly Successful in Congress?” in Presidential Leadership: The Vortex of Presidential Power, ed. Bert Rockman and Richard W. Waterman (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007).
2. Keith Krehbiel, Pivotal Politics: A Theory of U.S. Lawmaking (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998), chaps. 7–8.
3. Paul C. Light, “Less Room for Breakthrough Ideas,” Washington Post, November 11, 2008.
4. White House Transcript, “Remarks by the President to the Business Roundtable,” March 12, 2009.
5. Peter Baker, “Obama Defends Agenda as More Than Recession,” New York Times, March 13, 2009.
6. Quoted in Helene Cooper, “Some Obama Enemies Are Made Totally of Straw,” New York Times, May 24, 2009. See also Peter Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism,” New York Times Magazine, March 14, 2010.
7. Dan Balz, “With New Priorities, Obama and Democrats Can Recover in 2010,” Washington Post, December 27, 2009; Jonathan Alter, The Promise: President Obama, Year One (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), pp. 244, 246.
8. Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism”; Alter, The Promise, p. 245.
9. Alter, The Promise, pp. 79, 246; Michael D. Shear and Shailagh Murray, “President Is Set to ‘Take the Baton’: As Skepticism on Health Reform Mounts, He Will Intensify His Efforts,” Washington Post, July 20, 2009; Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism;” and Scott Wilson, “Bruised by Stimulus Battle, Obama Changed His Approach to Washington,” Washington Post, April 29, 2009.
10. Brian Friel, “Democrats Face Daunting Legislative Agenda,” National Journal Online, May 9, 2009.
11. Alter, The Promise, p. 79.
12. Ibid., p. 32.
13. Edwards, At the Margins, chap. 8; David Peterson, Lawrence J. Grossback, James A. Stimson, and Amy Gangl, “Congressional Response to Mandate Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (June 2003): 411–426.
14. David R. Mayhew, Congress: The Electoral Connection (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1974), 70–71.
15. Patricia Heidotting Conley, Presidential Mandates (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2001).
16. For an analysis of the perceptions of mandates, see Edwards, At the Margins, chap. 8; Peterson, Grossback, Stimson, and Gangl, “Congressional Response to Mandate Elections.”
17. Quoted in Everett Carll Ladd, The Ladd Report #1 (New York: W. W. Norton, 1985), p. 3.
18. Edwards, At the Margins, chap. 8.
19. Carl Hulse, “Not All New Democrats Rode an Obama Tide,” New York Times, December 7, 2008.
20. George C. Edwards III and Andrew Barrett, “Presidential Agenda Setting in Congress,” in Polarized Politics: Congress and the President in a Partisan Era, ed. Jon R. Bond and Richard Fleisher (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2000).
21. Alan D. Rozzi, “Defining Debates from the Outside Looking In: How Presidents Affect the Decisions of the House Rules Committee,” Congress & the Presidency 37 (January 2010): 64–91.
22. David R. Mayhew, Divided We Govern, 2nd ed. (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2005).
23. Sarah A. Binder, Stalemate (Washington, DC: Brookings Institute Press, 2003); William G. Howell, Scott Adler, Charles Cameron, and Charles Riemann, “Divided Government and the Legislative Productivity of Congress,” Legislative Studies Quarterly 25 (May 2000): 285–311; John J. Coleman, “Unified Government, Divided Government, and Party Responsiveness,” American Political Science Review 93 (December 1999): 821–835; Sarah A. Binder, “The Dynamics of Legislative Gridlock, 1947–96,” American Political Science Review 93 (September 1999): 519–533; George C. Edwards III, Andrew Barrett, and Jeffrey Peake, “The Legislative Impact of Divided Government,” American Journal of Political Science 41 (April 1997): 545–563.
24. Edwards, Barrett, and Peake, “The Legislative Impact of Divided Government.”
25. Ibid.
26. See Peter Trubowitz and Nicole Mellow, “Going Bipartisan: Politics by Other Means,” Political Science Quarterly 120 (Fall 2005): 433–455, for an interesting discussion of the conditions under which bipartisanship is most likely to occur.
27. Shailagh Murray, Michael D. Shear, and Paul Kane, “2009 Democratic Agenda Severely Weakened by Republicans’ United Opposition,” Washington Post, January 24, 2010.
28. Keith Poole, “Party Polarization: 1879–2009,” voteview.com/Polarized_America.htm#POLITICALPOLARIZATION. See also Nolan McCarty, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal, Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2006).
29. Shawn Zeller, “Party Unity—Parties Dig In Deep on a Fractured Hill,” CQ Weekly, December 15, 2008, pp. 3332–3341.
30. Gary C. Jacobson, “Barack Obama and the American Public: From Candidate to President,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 41 (June 2011): 220–243.
31. See, for example, Gallup polls, December 4–7, 2010, and January 7–9, 2011; and Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, January 5–9, 2011.
32. Quoted in Peter Baker, “Bipartisanship Isn’t So Easy, Obama Sees,” New York Times, February 13, 2009.
33. Ronald Brownstein, “For GOP, A Southern Exposure,” National Journal, May 23, 2009.
34. Nate Silver, “Popularity of ‘Don’t Ask’ Repeal May Have Drawn Republican Votes,” New York Times, December 19, 2010.
35. Quoted in Alter, The Promise, pp. 256–257.
36. Ibid., p. 129.
37. Bruce Smith, “Graham Censured by Charleston County GOP,” The State, November 12, 2009.
38. The Lexington County Republican Party, “Lexington County Party Passes Resolution of Censure for Lindsey Graham,” accessed at http.lcrp-online.com/1.html.
39. Robert Draper, “Lindsey Graham, This Year’s Maverick,” New York Times, July 4, 2010.
40. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, January 6–10, 2010.
41. Alan K. Ota, “GOP Moderates See Political Benefits in Opposing Obama’s Economic Agenda,” CQ Today, February 6, 2009.
42. Frances E. Lee, Beyond Ideology: Politics, Principles, and Partisanship in the U.S. Senate (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009), chap. 4.
43. Quoted in Carl Hulse, “Legislative Hurdles in an Era of Conflict, Not Compromise,” New York Times, June 19, 2010.
44. Shailagh Murray and Paul Kane, “Democratic Congress Shows Signs It Will Not Bow to Obama,” Washington Post, January 11, 2009, p. A5.
45. Quoted in Carl Hulse and David M. Herszenhorn, “New White House and Congress Hope to Have Bills Ready by Inauguration,” New York Times, November 26, 2008.
46. John M. Broder, “Climate Bill Is Threatened by Senators,” New York Times, August 7, 2009.
47. Quoted in John M. Broder, “Obama Opposes Trade Sanctions in Climate Bill,” New York Times, June 29, 2009.
48. Stephen Labaton, “Ailing, Banks Still Field Strong Lobby at Capitol,” New York Times, June 5, 2009.
49. Jodi Kantor, “Abortion Foe Defies Party on Health Care Bill,” New York Times, January 7, 2010.
50. “2009 Vote Ratings,” National Journal, February 27, 2009.
51. Charlie Cook, “Senate’s Power Rests with Centrists: Democrats Can’t Overcome Filibusters without Help from the Middle,” National Journal, December 13, 2008.
52. Robert Pear, “2 Democrats Spearheading Health Bill Are Split,” New York Times, May 30, 2009.
53. Steven Greenhouse, “Democrats Drop Key Part of Bill to Assist Unions,” New York Times, July 17, 2009.
54. Peter H. Stone, “Lobbyists Go Full Tilt In Health Fight,” National Journal, March 13, 2010; Jeff Zeleny, “Millions Spent to Sway Democrats on Health Care,” New York Times, March 14, 2010; Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Jeff Zeleny, and Carl Hulse, “The Long Road Back,” New York Times, March 21, 2010.
55. Peter Wallsten, “Retooling Obama’s Campaign Machine for the Long Haul,” Los Angeles Times, January 14, 2009.
56. Jim Rutenberg, “Bloggers and Unions Join Forces to Push Democrats,” New York Times, February 27, 2009.
57. Jeff Zeleny, “Budget Has Obama Courting Fellow Democrats,” New York Times, March 26, 2009.
58. Peter Baker and David M. Herszenhorn, “Senate Allies Fault Obama on Stimulus,” New York Times, January 9, 2009.
59. Peter Baker and Adam Nagourney, “Sotomayor Pick a Product of Lessons From Past Battles, New York Times, May 28, 2009.
60. Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, March 9–12, 2009.
61. USA Today/Gallup poll, October 6, 2009.
62. Paul Kane, “Pelosi Says Rallying Votes for Troop Surge in Afghanistan Will Be Obama’s Job,” Washington Post, December 17, 2009, p. A4.
63. Perry Bacon Jr., “Liberal Group Blasts Obama for Considering Tax Compromise,” Washington Post, December 2, 2010; Jennifer Epstein, “Liberal Group’s New Ad Blasts Obama,” Politico.com, December 20, 2010.
64. Sam Graham-Felsen, “Why Is Obama Leaving the Grass Roots on the Sidelines?” Washington Post, December 17, 2010.
65. Remarks of the president, White House, December 7, 2010.
66. Ibid.
1. Carl Hulse and David M. Herszenhorn, “New White House and Congress Hope to Have Bills Ready by Inauguration,” New York Times, November 26, 2008.
2. For more background on the staff of the Office of Legislative Affairs, see Jonathan Alter, The Promise: President Obama, Year One (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), pp. 78–79.
3. Quoted in Matt Bai, “Taking the Hill,” New York Times Magazine, June 7, 2009.
4. Carl Hulse and Jeff Zeleny, “Stimulus Offers Glimpse of Obama’s Battle Plan,” New York Times, February 13, 2009.
5. Quoted in Janet Hook and Christi Parsons, “Barack Obama Has a Head Start Working with Congress,” New York Times, November 27, 2008.
6. Hulse and Herszenhorn, “New White House and Congress Hope to Have Bills Ready by Inauguration.”
7. Peter Baker and Adam Nagourney, “Sotomayor Pick a Product of Lessons from Past Battles, New York Times, May 28, 2009.
8. Transcript of press conference on November 25, 2008.
9. Scott Wilson, “Bruised by Stimulus Battle, Obama Changed His Approach to Washington,” Washington Post, April 29, 2009.
10. John Harwood, “ ‘Partisan’ Seeks a Prefix: Bi-or Post-,” New York Times, December 7, 2008.
11. Quoted in ibid.
12. Quoted in Ronald Brownstein, The Second Civil War (New York: Penguin Press, 2007), pp. 240–248, 252, 287.
13. Ibid., pp. 229–230, 249–252, 287–296.
14. Quoted in Robert Draper, Dead Certain: The Presidency of George W. Bush (New York: Free Press, 2007), p. 230.
15. Quotes from David D. Kirkpatrick, “Obama Reaches Out for McCain’s Counsel,” New York Times, January 19, 2009; Jeff Zeleny and David M. Herszenhorn, “Obama Seeks Wide Support in Congress for Stimulus,” New York Times, January 6, 2009.
16. Jonathan Weisman and Laura Meckler, “Obama Reaches Out to Republicans,” Wall Street Journal, December 15, 2008, p. 10; Jeff Zeleny, “Initial Steps by Obama Suggest a Bipartisan Flair,” New York Times, November 24, 2008.
17. Ronald Brownstein, “Two Visions of Leadership,” National Journal, January 17, 2009.
18. Howard Kurtz, “Obama Charms Even a Night’s Grand Ol’ Party,” Washington Post, January 15, 2009, p. C1.
19. Kirkpatrick, “Obama Reaches Out for McCain’s Counsel.”
20. Quotes from Carl Hulse, “Obama Team Makes Early Efforts to Show Willingness to Reach Out to Republicans,” New York Times, January 19, 2009; David M. Herszenhorn, “Obama Officials Ask Senate G.O.P. to Back Release of Bailout Money,” New York Times, January 15, 2009.
21. Jackie Calmes and David M. Herszenhorn, “Obama Presses for Quick Jolt to the Economy,” New York Times, January 24, 2009.
22. See Dana Milbank, “The Republicans Are Smiling, but They’re Not Buying,” Washington Post, January 28, 2009, p. A3; Jackie Calmes and Carl Hulse, “Obama, Visiting G.O.P. Lawmakers, Is Open to Some Compromise on Stimulus,” New York Times, January 28, 2009; Jackie Calmes, “House Passes Stimulus Plan Despite G.O.P. Opposition,” New York Times, January 29, 2009.
23. Calmes, “House Passes Stimulus Plan Despite G.O.P. Opposition.”
24. Alter, The Promise, p. 127.
25. Carl Hulse, “Short-Circuiting Bipartisanship Is Nothing New for Congress,” New York Times, February 14, 2009.
26. Alter, The Promise, p. 130.
27. Peter Baker, “Taking on Critics, Obama Puts Aside Talk of Unity,” New York Times, February 10, 2009.
28. Wilson, “Bruised by Stimulus Battle, Obama Changed His Approach to Washington”; Alter, The Promise, p. 130.
29. Mark Leibovich, “Missing Element in Obama’s Ties With G.O.P. Leaders: Good Chemistry,” New York Times, February 24, 2010.
30. Quoted in Peter Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism,” New York Times Magazine, March 14, 2010.
31. See, for example, John Harwood, “The President’s Best Hope in the G.O.P.,” New York Times, September 20, 2009; Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Taking Health Care Courtship Up Another Notch,” New York Times, September 27, 2009.
32. Quoted in Kathleen Hunter, “GOP Lawmakers Unmoved by Obama Overtures of Bipartisanship,” CQ Daily News, April 23, 2009.
33. Quoted in Baker and Nagourney, “Sotomayor Pick a Product of Lessons from Past Battles.”
34. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “A Brisk First Round on Supreme Court Search,” New York Times, April 22, 2010.
35. Michael D. Shear and Ceci Connolly, “Reform Gets Conditional GOP Support: Urged by the White House, Republicans Speak Up for Bipartisan Health Fix,” Washington Post, October 7, 2009.
36. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Jeff Zeleny, and Carl Hulse, “The Long Road Back,” New York Times, March 21, 2010; Ceci Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill,” Washington Post, March 23, 2010.
37. Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill.”
38. David M. Herszenhorn and Robert Pear, “Obama Offers to Use Some GOP Health Proposals,” New York Times, March 2, 1010.
39. Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill”; Alter, The Promise, p. 415.
40. Brian Friel and Kerry Young, “A Trying Relationship,” CQ Weekly, September 3, 2010, p. 2082.
41. “Remarks by the President to the House Democratic Caucus,” White House Transcript, March 20, 2010.
42. Sheryl Gay Stolberg and David M. Herszenhorn, “Obama Finds G.O.P. Resistance in Meeting on Financial Bill,” New York Times, April 14, 2010.
43. Carl Hulse, “Republican Senators’ Lunch With Obama Is Marked by Spirited Confrontations,” New York Times, May 25, 2010.
44. Peter Baker, “Obama Gamble Pays Off With Approval of Arms Pact,” New York Times, December 22, 2010.
45. Robert Draper, “Lindsey Graham, This Year’s Maverick,” New York Times, July 4, 2010.
46. Quoted in Juliet Eilperin, “On Climate Bill, Democrats Work to Overcome Graham’s Objections,” Washington Post, April 26, 2010.
47. Interview with Ezra Klein, “Sen. Lindsey Graham: ‘I Care Equally about Immigration and Climate Change’,” Washington Post, April 29, 2010.
48. Quoted in John M. Broder, “White House Energy Session Changes No Minds,” New York Times, June 29, 2010.
49. Josh Gerstein, “Graham: W.H. Talks Just Went ‘Dead’,” Politico.com, September 20, 2010.
50. For a discussion of presidential party leadership in Congress, see George C. Edwards III, At the Margins: Presidential Leadership of Congress (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989), chaps. 3–5.
51. Quoted in Bai, “Taking the Hill.”
52. Ibid.
53. Carl Hulse and Jeff Zeleny, “Stimulus Offers Glimpse of Obama’s Battle Plan,” New York Times, February 13, 2009.
54. Jeff Zeleny, “Budget Has Obama Courting Fellow Democrats,” New York Times, March 26, 2009.
55. Keith Koffler, “The Oval Office: Obama’s Lobbying Turf,” CQ Today Online News, December 7, 2009; Stolberg, “Taking Health Care Courtship Up Another Notch.”
56. Glenn Thrush, “Obama Makes the Sale,” Politico.com, December 17, 2010.
57. Koffler, “The Oval Office: Obama’s Lobbying Turf;” Alter, The Promise, pp. 327, 409.
58. Quoted in Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “Obama to Forge a Greater Role on Health Care,” New York Times, June 7, 2009. See also Alter, The Promise, pp. 127, 327.
59. Sandhya Somashekhar and Paul Kane, “Democrats Yet to Decide on Health-care Bill Bear the Weight of Washington,” Washington Post, March 18, 2010; Stolberg, Zeleny, and Hulse, “The Long Road Back”; Alter, The Promise, pp. 409, 432.
60. Brian Friel et al., “So, Who Won?” National Journal, March 27, 2010, p. 20.
61. These examples come from Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill.”
62. Bai, “Taking the Hill.”
63. Shailagh Murray, “Obama’s Chief of Staff Grants Access, Gets Results,” Washington Post, April 13, 2009.
64. Coral Davenport and Avery Palmer, “Climate Bill Rides Last-Minute Blitz,” CQ Today Online News, June 25, 2009; Alter, The Promise, 260.
65. Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill.”
66. Carl Hulse and Robert Pear, “Obama Weighs in as House Debates Health Overhaul,” New York Times, November 8, 2009.
67. “Remarks by the President to the House Democratic Caucus,” White House Transcript, March 20, 2010.
68. Bai, “Taking the Hill.”
69. Nevertheless, some House Democrats complained that the White House routinely showed them disrespect. For example, there were complaints that administration aides would wait until the last minute to inform them when a cabinet official would be traveling to their districts to give a speech or announce a government grant. Lawmakers love these events, which let them take advantage of local press coverage. Paul Kane, “House Democrats Hit Boiling Point Over Perceived Lack of White House Support,” Washington Post, July 15, 2010.
70. Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei, “Obama Isolated Ahead of 2012,” Politico.com, November 8, 2010.
71. Murray, “Obama’s Chief of Staff Grants Access, Gets Results.”
72. John M. Broder, “With Something for Everyone, Climate Bill Passed,” New York Times, July 1, 2009.
73. Alter, The Promise, p. 411.
74. Quoted in Stolberg, “Obama to Forge a Greater Role on Health Care.”
75. Quoted in Brian Friel, “The Middle Wants In,” National Journal, March 28, 2009, p. 43.
76. Quoted in Carl Hulse, “Obama Goes to Lawmakers on Budget,” New York Times, March 31, 2009.
77. Quoted in Jackie Calmes, “Clinton’s Health Defeat Sways Obama’s Tactics,” New York Times, September 6, 2009.
78. Quoted in Stolberg, Zeleny, and Hulse, “The Long Road Back.” See also Alter, The Promise, p. 432.
79. Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill.”
80. Quoted in Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “White House and Allies Set to Build Up Health Law,” New York Times, June 6, 2010.
81. Jeff Zeleny, “Millions Spent to Sway Democrats on Health Care,” New York Times, March 14, 2010.
82. Kane, “House Democrats Hit Boiling Point Over Perceived Lack of White House Support.” See also Friel and Young, “A Trying Relationship,” p. 2084.
83. Friel and Young, “A Trying Relationship,” pp. 2077, 2082.
84. Quoted in Bai, “Taking the Hill.”
85. Quoted in Shailagh Murray, Michael D. Shear, and Paul Kane, “2009 Democratic Agenda Severely Weakened by Republicans’ United Opposition,” Washington Post, January 24, 2010. See also David M. Herszenhorn, “Democrats See Progress on Proposal for Economy,” New York Times, January 13, 2009.
86. Quoted in Bai, “Taking the Hill.”
87. Quoted in Peter Baker, “Obama Defends Agenda as More Than Recession,” New York Times, March 13, 2009.
88. Hulse and Zeleny, “Stimulus Offers Glimpse of Obama’s Battle Plan.”
89. Ibid.; Wilson, “Bruised by Stimulus Battle, Obama Changed His Approach to Washington.”
90. Bai, “Taking the Hill”; Hulse and Zeleny, “Stimulus Offers Glimpse of Obama’s Battle Plan.”
91. Stephen Labaton, “Ailing, Banks Still Field Strong Lobby at Capitol,” New York Times, June 5, 2009; Stolberg, “Obama to Forge a Greater Role on Health Care.”
92. Richard E. Cohen, “Can the Committee System Handle Obama’s Ambitious Agenda?” National Journal, May 2, 2009; Adriel Bettelheim, “Overhaul Hard to Steer Using Hands-Off Approach,” CQ Weekly, August 10, 2009, pp. 1894–1895; Washington Post, Landmark: The Inside Story of America’s New Health-Care Law and What It Means for Us All (New York: Public Affairs, 2010), pp. 15–16.
93. Quoted in Cohen, “Can the Committee System Handle Obama’s Ambitious Agenda?”
94. Quoted in Michael D. Shear and Shailagh Murray, “President Is Set to ‘Take the Baton’,” Washington Post, July 20, 2009. See also Alter, The Promise, p. 249.
95. Alter, The Promise, pp. 249, 254.
96. Bettelheim, “Overhaul Hard to Steer Using Hands-Off Approach,” p. 1894.
97. Bai, “Taking the Hill.”
98. Alter, The Promise, p. 396.
99. Ibid., p. 260.
100. Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “White House Nudges Test the Power of Persuasion,” New York Times, February 24, 2010; Murray, Shear, and Kane, “2009 Democratic Agenda Severely Weakened by Republicans’ United Opposition”; Richard E. Cohen, “Pelosi’s Bill: How She Did It,” National Journal, November 14, 2009, p. 32; Jackie Calmes, “Clinton’s Defeat Sways Obama’s Tactics,” New York Times, September 6, 2009.
101. Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill”; Washington Post, Landmark, pp. 50–51; Alter, The Promise, pp. 265–266.
102. Cohen, “Pelosi’s Bill,” p. 32.
103. David D. Kirkpatrick, “Obama Is Taking an Active Role in Talks on Health Care Plan,” New York Times, August 13, 2009.
104. Sheryl Gay Stolberg and David M. Herszenhorn, “In Health Talks, President Is Hands-Off No More,” New York Times, January 16, 2010; Alter, The Promise, p. 417.
105. Stolberg, Zeleny, and Hulse, “The Long Road Back.”
106. Michael D. Shear, “Obama to Ask CEOs to Abandon ‘Furious Efforts’ to Block Financial Overhaul,” Washington Post, April 22, 2010; Anne E. Kornblut and Michael D. Shear, “Obama Makes a Strong Case for Financial Reform,” Washington Post, April 23, 2010.
107. Edward Epstein, “Pelosi’s Action Plan for Party Unity,” CQ Weekly, March 30, 2009, p. 707.
108. For an overview of her role, see Washington Post, Landmark, chap. 2.
109. Cohen, “Pelosi’s Bill,” p. 32.
110. Ibid., p. 28.
111. Quoted in Stolberg, Zeleny, and Hulse, “The Long Road Back.”
112. Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill”; Stolberg, Zeleny, and Hulse, “The Long Road Back.”
113. Stolberg, Zeleny, and Hulse, “The Long Road Back.”
114. Quoted in Congressional Quarterly, “Biden Declares Pelosi More Powerful than Obama, VP,” Roll Call, July 19, 2010.
115. Cohen, “Can the Committee System Handle Obama’s Ambitious Agenda?”
116. Carl Hulse and Jackie Calmes, “Biden and G.O.P. Leader Helped Hammer Out Bipartisan Tax Accord,” New York Times, December 7, 2010; Glenn Thrush, “For W.H., Upside in Fighting Hill Dems,” Politico.com, December 8, 2010.
117. Joe Eaton and M. B. Pell, “Lobbyists Swarm Capitol to Influence Health Reform,” The Center for Public Integrity, February 23, 2010; Dan Eggen, “Expecting Final Push on Health-care Reform, Interest Groups Rally for Big Finish,” Washington Post, February 28, 2010.
118. John Harwood, “New Business Group Forms to Promote Obama Agenda,” New York Times, May 20, 2009.
119. Stolberg, Zeleny, and Hulse, “The Long Road Back.”
120. Allen and VandeHei, “Obama Isolated Ahead of 2012.”
1. Quoted in George Packer, “Obama’s Lost Year,” New Yorker, March 15, 2010.
2. Jonathan Alter, The Promise: President Obama, Year One (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), pp. 118, 246.
3. The first round of the “cash for clunkers” program was part of a much larger supplemental appropriations bill. Thus, I have used the second round, passed shortly after the first, which focused entirely on the vehicle trade-in program.
4. Perry Bacon Jr., “House Passes War Funds As 51 Democrats Dissent,” Washington Post, May 15, 2009.
5. Paul Kane, “Pelosi Says Rallying Votes for Troop Surge in Afghanistan Will Be Obama’s Job,” Washington Post, December 17, 2009, p. A4.
6. Some of the Democratic opposition may have stemmed from the decision by party leaders to strip from the bill money that had been included in the original House version to help address the weak economy at home, including funds to help preserve teachers’ jobs.
7. Jeff Zeleny, “Gregg Ends Bid for Commerce Job,” New York Times, February 13, 2009.
8. Alter, The Promise, p. 424.
9. Richard Rubin, “Party Unity: An Ever Thicker Dividing Line,” CQ Weekly, January 11, 2010, pp. 122–131; Shawn Zeller, “The Staying Power of Partisanship,” CQ Weekly, January 3, 2011, pp. 30–40.
10. voteview.com/Polarized_America.htm#POLITICALPOLARIZATION
11. See voteview.com/houserank.asp; voteview.com/senrank.asp; jackman.stanford.edu/ideal/s111/x1.pdf; and jackman.stanford.edu/ideal/h111/x2.pdf. National Journal found a very slight overlap. See Ronald Brownstein, “Pulling Apart,” National Journal, February 26, 2010.
12. Carl Hulse and Jeff Zeleny, “Stimulus Offers Glimpse of Obama’s Battle Plan,” New York Times, February 13, 2009.
13. Quoted in Alter, The Promise, p. 129.
14. Scott Wilson, “Bruised by Stimulus Battle, Obama Changed His Approach to Washington,” Washington Post, April 29, 2009.
15. Quoted in Peter Baker, “Education of a President,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2010.
16. Peter Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism,” New York Times Magazine, March 14, 2010.
17. See, for example, Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll, July 31–August 5, 2010.
18. Ronald Brownstein, “Dems’ Governing Core Stays Intact,” National Journal, April 3, 2010.
19. Greg Giroux, “Breaking Down the House Vote to Increase Federal Debt Limit,” CQ Daily, December 17, 2009. The figures do not include Bill Owens, who won a special election in November 2009 in a district the GOP was defending.
20. Alexis Simendinger and Brian Friel, “A Hard Sell for Congressional Democrats,” National Journal, January 16, 2010, p. 25.
21. Charlie Cook, “The Health Bill Could Have Foundered in So Many Places, but the Speaker and Chief of Staff Muscled It Through,” National Journal, November 14, 2009.
22. Ibid.
23. Richard E. Cohen and Brian Friel, “Serving a District that Went for the Other Party’s Presidential Nominee Can Force Congressmen to Make Tough Choices,” National Journal, April 18, 2009.
24. Quoted in Simendinger and Friel, “A Hard Sell for Congressional Democrats.”
25. Rubin, “Party Unity: An Ever Thicker Dividing Line”; Zeller, “The Staying Power of Partisanship.”
26. Ben Pershing, “Critical Ads to Follow Obama on Vacation,” Washington Post, August 23, 2009; Katherine Q. Seelye, “Competing Ads on Health Care Plan Swamp the Airwaves,” New York Times, August 16, 2009; Katherine Q. Seelye, “Ad Campaign Counterattacks Against Overhaul’s Critics,” New York Times, August 14, 2009; and Ceci Connolly, “Health-Care Activists Targeting Democrats,” Washington Post, June 28, 2009.
27. Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism.”
28. Peter H. Stone, “Lobbyists Go Full Tilt in Health Fight,” National Journal, March 13, 2010; Jeff Zeleny, “Millions Spent to Sway Democrats on Health Care,” New York Times, March 14, 2010; Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Jeff Zeleny, and Carl Hulse, “The Long Road Back,” New York Times, March 21, 2010.
29. Nate Silver, “Obama’s Share Determined Dems’ Votes on ObamaCare,” 538, March 22, 2010.
30. Silver, “Obama’s Share Determined Dems’ Votes on ObamaCare.” Ideology is measured by DW-Nominate scores.
31. See, for example, Keith Koffler, “The Oval Office: Obama’s Lobbying Turf,” CQ Today Online News, December 7, 2009.
32. Matthew Watkins, “Edwards Bucked Pressure on Vote,” Bryan-College Station Eagle, November 10, 2009.
33. These examples come from Connolly, “How Obama Revived His Health-care Bill.”
1. Richard E. Neustadt, Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents (New York: Free Press, 1990), p. 11.
2. Ibid., p. 10.
3. Ibid., p. 37. Italics in original.
4. See, for example, Kenneth R. Mayer, With the Stroke of a Pen, Executive Orders and Presidential Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001); Phillip J. Cooper, By Order of the President: The Use and Abuse of Executive Direct Action (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2002); William G. Howell, Power without Persuasion (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003); Adam L. Warber, Executive Orders and the Modern Presidency: Legislating from the Oval Office (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006).
5. Neustadt, Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents, p. 32.
6. See George C. Edwards III, The Strategic President: Persuasion and Opportunity in Presidential Leadership (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).
7. See, for example, Michel Villette and Catherine Vuillermot, From Predators to Icons; Exposing the Myth of the Business Hero (Ithaca, NY: ILR Press, 2009); and Scott A. Shane, The Illusions of Entrepreneurship (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008).
8. One example is George Packer, “Obama’s Lost Year,” New Yorker, March 15, 2010.
9. George C. Edwards III, Presidential Approval (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1990), pp. 93–100. Reagan obtained majority approval in the November 20–23, 1981 Gallup poll.
10. Carl Albert, interview by Dorothy Pierce McSweeny, July 9, 1969, interview 3, transcript, pp. 7, 11, Lyndon Baines Johnson Library, Austin, TX; Carl Albert, interview by Dorothy Pierce McSweeny, August 13, 1969, interview 4, transcript, pp. 22, 25, Lyndon Baines Johnson Library; Carl Albert, interview by Dorothy Pierce McSweeny, April 28, 1969, interview 1, transcript, pp. 22–23, Lyndon Baines Johnson Library; Carl Albert, interview by Dorothy Pierce McSweeny, June 10, 1969, interview 2, transcript, p. 14, Lyndon Baines Johnson Library.
11. Russell Renka, “Comparing Presidents Kennedy and Johnson as Legislative Leaders,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Savannah, GA, November 1984, p. 26. See also Carl Albert, interview by Dorothy Pierce McSweeny, July 9, 1969, interview 3, transcript, p. 3.
12. Michael R. Beschloss, Taking Charge: The Johnson White House Tapes, 1963–1964 (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1997); Michael R. Beschloss, Reaching for Glory: Lyndon Johnson’s Secret White House Tapes, 1964–1965 (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001).
13. Act V, Scene 2.
14. Quoted in Shailagh Murray, Michael D. Shear, and Paul Kane, “2009 Democratic Agenda Severely Weakened by Republicans’ United Opposition,” Washington Post, January 24, 2010.
15. Quoted in Sheryl Gay Stolberg, “White House Nudges Test the Power of Persuasion,” New York Times, February 24, 2010.
16. Richard Hofstadter, The American Political Tradition (New York: Vintage, 1954), p. 316.
17. Quoted in Jonathan Alter, The Promise: President Obama, Year One (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010), p. 344. See also p. 421.
18. Quoted in Stolberg, “White House Nudges Test the Power of Persuasion.”
19. Barack Obama, News Conference, White House, December 22, 2010.
20. Quoted in Peter Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism,” New York Times Magazine, March 14, 2010.
21. Quoted in Baker, “The Limits of Rahmism.”
22. See, for example, Gallup poll of September 13–16, 2010.
23. Quoted in Brian Friel and Kerry Young, “A Trying Relationship,” CQ Weekly, September 3, 2010, p. 2083.
24. Transcript: “President Barack Obama,” 60 Minutes, Interview by Steve Kroft, November 4, 2010.
25. Gary C. Jacobson, “Legislative Success and Political Failure: The Public’s Reaction to Barack Obama’s Early Presidency,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 41 (June 2011), pp. 231–232. Jacobson found that an average of 90 percent of Republicans, 88 percent of Democrats, and 82 percent of independents offered consistent evaluations; analysis is based on 10 surveys by Gallup, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, and CNN taken between February and August and available for secondary analysis from the Roper Center, University of Connecticut. In the June 2010 Pew survey, 88 percent of respondents gave consistent evaluations of Obama’s performance on health care and his overall job performance; on eight other issues, including the economy, the deficit, and the Iraq and Afghan wars, consistency ranged from 69 percent to 85 percent.
26. Chris Cillizza, “What Effect Did Health-care Reform Have on Election?” Washington Post, November 7, 2010.
27. Lincoln Park Strategies conducted the poll for The Third Way, contacting households in 10 battleground states with contested races on November 4–12, 2010. There were 1,000 respondents, half of which were “switchers” and the other half, “droppers.”
28. Survey conducted jointly by Resurgent Republic and Democracy Corps on behalf of the Bipartisan Policy Center, November 2–3, 2010, among 886 voters in the midterm election.
29. Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, November 3–6, 2010.
30. Nate Silver, “Health Care and Bailout Votes May Have Hurt Democrats,” New York Times, November 16, 2010. See also Eric McGhee, “Did Controversial Roll Call Votes Doom the Democrats?” The Monkey Cage, November 4, 2010; and Eric McGhee, “Which Roll Call Votes Hurt the Democrats?” The Monkey Cage, November 9, 2010.
31. David W. Brady, Morris P. Fiorina, and Arjun S. Wilkins, “The 2010 Elections: Why did Political Science Forecasts Go Awry?” PS: Political Science and Politics 44 (April 2011): 247-250.
32. Gary C. Jacobson, “The Republican Resurgence in 2010,” Political Science Quarterly 127 (Spring 2011): 35–66.
33. John Cranford, “The Partisanship Pendulum,” CQ Weekly (April 18, 2011): 845.
34. Lori Montgomery, Paul Kane, Brady Dennis, Alec MacGillis, David Fahrenthold, Rosalind Helderman, Felicia Sonmez, and Dan Balz, “Origins of the Debt Showdown,” Washington Post, August 6, 2011.
35. USA Today/Gallup poll, August 2, 2011; CNN/ORC poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation, August 5–7, 2011; Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, August 4–8, 2011. But see CBS News/New York Times poll, August 2–3, 2011.
36. Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, August 4–8, 2011.
37. CBS News/New York Times poll, August 2–3, 2011; USA Today/Gallup poll, August 2, 2011.
38. Quoted in Baker, “Education of a President,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2010.
39. Transcript: “President Barack Obama,” 60 Minutes, Interview by Steve Kroft, November 4, 2010.
40. Ibid.