Chapter 5

Define Business Risk Scenarios

Abstract

Through a risk assessment, the potential business impact from various types of digital crimes, disputes, incidents, and/or events is recognized. This risk assessment describes, from the business perspective, where digital evidence is required and its benefit in reducing business impact.

Keywords

Assessment; Heat map; Mind map; Risk; Scenarios; Threats
 

Introduction

As the first stage, organizations must clearly understand the “who, where, what, when, why, and how” motives for investing their time, money, and resources into implementing a digital forensics readiness program. To better gain this understanding, a risk assessment is performed to identify the potential impacts on business operation from various types of digital crimes, disputes, incidents, and events.

What Is Business Risk?

Business risk implies a level of uncertainty due to unforeseen events that present a threat2 to an organization. Generally, business risk is the chance of some event happening that will have an impact to the organization. Business risks can directly or indirectly impact an organization but collectively can be grouped as being influenced by two major types of risk contributors:
Internal events are those risks that can be controlled and take place within the boundaries of the organization, including, but not limited to:
technology (ie, outages, degradations)
workplace health and safety (ie, accidents, ergonomics)
information/physical security (ie, theft, data loss, fraud)
staffing (ie, human error, conflict management)

Forensic Readiness Scenarios

Similar to the business risk contributors noted previously, within the context of digital forensic readiness there are also a series of direct and indirect influences that organizations must be identify and develop strategies to manage the exposure to digital evidence. To illustrate the business risks where digital forensic readiness can demonstrate positive benefit, each scenarios will be explained following the “who, where, what, when, why, and how” motives to justify why organizations should invest their time, money, and resources.

Scenario #1: Reducing the Impact of Cybercrime

Having technology play such an integral part of most core business functions increasingly exposes organizations to the potential impact of cybercrime and the constantly evolving threat landscape. Completing a risk assessment for this scenario first requires organizations to understand the security properties of their business functions that they need to safeguard. The list below describes the security properties that organizations have to protect:
Confidentiality: Ensuring that objects3 and assets4 are only made available to the subjects5 it is intended for.
Integrity: Validating that change to objects and assets is done following approved processes and by approved subjects.
Availability: Guaranteeing that objects and assets are accessible when needed and that performance is delivered to the highest possible standards.
Continuity: Ability to recovery the loss of processing capabilities within an acceptable period of time.
Authentication: Establishing that access into objects and assets identifies the requesting subject; or alternatively a risk acceptance is approved to permit alternate means of subject access.
Authorization: Explicitly denying or permitting subjects access into objects and assets.
Nonrepudiation: Protects against falsely denying a subjects ownership over a particular action.
Reducing the impact of cybercrime should be a consideration for all security properties noted in the list above. However it is not enough to only consider the security properties that need to be safeguarded, further analysis needs to be done to understand exactly how individual security threats pose business risk and can potentially impact operational functions.
Using a threat modelling methodology, as discussed in Appendix H: Threat Modelling, allows organizations to become better equipped to identify, quantify, and address security threats that present a risk. Resulting from the threat modelling, a structured representation of the risk(s) can be created into the different ways that threat actors6 can go about executing attacks and how their tactics, techniques, and procedures7 can be used to impact the organization.

Table 5.1

Threat Category to Security Property Relationship

Threat CategorySecurity Property
SpoofingAuthentication
TamperingIntegrity
RepudiationNonrepudiation
Information disclosureConfidentiality
Denial of service
Availability,
Continuity
Elevation of privilegeAuthorization
Detailed information collected from the threat modelling exercise must now be translated into a business language that aligns with strategies for reducing the impact of cybercrime. Using a series of threat categories, individual security threats can be placed into larger groupings based on commonalities in their tactics, techniques, and procedures. As discussed in Appendix H: Threat Modelling, the STRIDE (Spoofing, Tampering, Repudiation, Information disclosure, Denial of service, Elevation of privilege) threat model describes the six threat categories where individual security threats can be grouped. Illustrated in Table 5.1, the relationships between security properties and threat categories can be correlated to further enhance the alignment of individual security threat into focus areas for reducing the impact of cybercrime.

Scenario #2: Validating the Impact of Cybercrime or Disputes

When cybercrime occurs, organizations must be prepared to show the amount of impact the incident had to its business operations, functions, and assets. To do so requires that supporting evidence is gathered and made readily available when an incident is declared, which if necessary preparation have not been taken can lead to delayed validation or insufficient results.
The total cost an incident has on an organization should not be limited to only include those business operations, functions, and assets that were directly impacted. To gain a complete and accurate view of the entire cost of an incident, organizations should consider both indirect and collateral contributors as part of validating the impact of cybercrime or disputes.

Mitigating Control Logs

Preventive: stop loss, harm, or damage from occurring
Detective: monitor activity to identify errors or irregularities
Corrective: restore objects and information to a known good state

Overhead Time and Effort

The time it takes to contain and remediate an incident depends on the amount of impact suffered. However, when an incident occurs, the costs associated to the overall business impact are commonly scoped down to the loss, harm, or damage of assets and operations. While these are essential considerations in determining the overall impact of an incident, the overhead cost of managing the incident can sometime be overlooked as a contributor to the overall business impact.
Generally, as a best practice the overhead cost required to run the incident response program should be included in the overall cost of the incident. This requires that organizations maintain accurate time tracking to ensure that the total amount of time invested by resources assigned to the incident response process is recorded. Without tracking overhead costs, organizations cannot effectively demonstrate the resource time and effort required to manage the incident.

Indirect Business Loss

Generally an incident requires a team of specialized resources to participate in one or more of the incident response stages. Additionally, it is not uncommon that resources participating in the incident response process also have daily functions and operations they perform.
Under these circumstances, the time and effort required for these resources to participate in the incident response process creates a cascading effect where other business operations and functions are subsequently impacted by the incident. Through the use of time tracking, the costs associated with the inability to perform normal duties should be taken into consideration as a contributor to the overall impact of the incident.

Recovery and Continuity Expenses

Scenario #3: Producing Evidence to Support Organizational Disciplinary Issues

For the most part, organizations have a requirement that employees comply with their business code of conduct policy. The organizational goal for having a business code of conduct document is to promote a positive work environment that strengthens the confidence of employees and stakeholders alike.
By signing this document and agreeing to comply, employees will be held to the organization’s level of expectation in how they behave ethically either in the work environment, when performing their operational duties, or as part of their relationship with external stakeholders. Where employees have violated the guidelines set out in the business code of conduct, they could be subject to appropriate disciplinary actions where supporting digital evidence may need to be gathered and processed.
With any disciplinary actions, there is potential that the employee could decide to escalate the situation into a legal matter. To prevent this from happening, the organization must approach the situation fairly and reasonably using consistent procedures that, at a minimum:
• are in writing;
• are specific and clear;
• do not discriminate;
• allow the matter to be dealt with quickly;
• ensure gathered evidence is kept confidential;
• inform the employee(s) of what disciplinary actions might be taken;
• indicate what authority each level of management has to take different disciplinary actions;
• inform the employee(s) of the complaints against them with supporting evidence;
• provide the employee(s) with an opportunity to appeal before a decision is made;
• allow the employee(s) to be accompanied (ie, human resources);
• assure no employee(s) will be dismissed for first offenses, except in the circumstance of gross misconduct;
• require a complete investigation is performed before disciplinary action is taken.

Scenario #4: Demonstrating Compliance With Regulatory or Legal Requirements

The need for regulatory or legal compliance can be business-centric depending on several factors, such as the industry the organization operates within (ie, financial), or the countries where business operations are conducted (ie, Unites States, India, Great Britain). Laws and regulations can also be enforced by different entities having different requirements for managing compliance and identifying noncompliance, such as:
• self-policed by a community (ie, “peer regulation”);
• unilaterally by those in power (ie, “fiat regulation”); or
• delegated to an independent third-party authority (ie, “statutory regulation”).
The importance of how these governing laws and regulations directly influence the way organizations operate must be clearly understood. Despite the grumblings of ensuring business operations follow the “red tape” of regulations, they are generally necessary to provide evidence of controls and show due care in circumstances where there is potential for negligence. While the types of regulations listed below may not be complete, it provides an understanding of the categories that can be applicable to organizations:
Economic regulations are a form of government regulation that adjusts prices and conditions of the economy (ie, professional licenses to conduct business, telephony service fees)
Social regulations are a form of government regulation that protects the interest of the public from economic activity such as health and the environment (ie, accidental release of chemical into air/water)
Arbitrary regulations mandate the use of one out of several equally valid options (ie, driving on the left or right side of the road)
Good faith regulations establish a baseline of behavior for a particular area (ie, restaurant health checks)
Good conflict regulations recognize an inherent conflict between two goals and take control for the greater good (ie, wearing seat belts in vehicles)
Process regulations dictates explicitly how tasks are to be completed (ie, call center scripts)

Scenario #5: Effectively Managing the Release of Court Ordered Data

No matter how diligent an organization, there are times when a dispute will end up before a court of law. When this happens, organization must be able to quickly produce credible evidence that supports their case and will not be called into question during legal proceedings.
For the most part, all organizations have common types of electronically stored information (ESI)8 that are considered discoverable as digital evidence, such as e-mail messages. However, the likelihood that the courts will require discovery of different ESI will vary depending on the nature of the dispute or the business performed by the organization.
Discussed in chapter “Evidence Management,” the Federal Rules of Evidence 803(6) describes that ESI is admissible as digital evidence in court if it demonstrates “records of regularly conducted activity” as a business record; such as an act, event, condition, opinion, or diagnosis. Ensuring compliance with this ruling requires organizations to implement a series of safeguards, precautions, and controls to ensure ESI is admissible in court and that it is authenticated to its original source.

Scenario #6: Supporting Contractual and/or Commercial Agreements

Depending on the nature of business performed, organizations can face disagreements that extend beyond disputes that commonly involve internal staff. Resulting in a various actions from breach of contract terms, improper termination of contracts, or large-scale class action lawsuits, these disputes can involve external entities such as business partners, competitors, shareholders, suppliers, or customers.
The majority of the interactions involved with contractual and commercial agreements can take place electronically. With these interactions being largely electronic, organization must ensure they capture and electronically preserve critical metadata about the agreements, such as details about the terms and conditions or the date the agreement was cosigned. Having this information available when needed can be extremely useful when it comes to preventing any type of loss (ie, financial, productivity, etc.) or when using arbitration as an alternative resolution path.
ESI needed to support contractual and commercial disputes may require detailed documentary evidence that thoroughly describes the relationship between the organization and the external entities. To ensure information regarding contractual and commercial agreements is accurately captured, a contract management system can be used to standardize and preserve on the metadata needed to provide sufficient grounds for supporting a dispute.

Scenario Assessment

Of the six digital forensic readiness scenarios discussed in this chapter not all of them might be relevant to every organization. Determining which scenarios are applicable requires that a thorough risk assessment of each scenario is completed.
Generally, if risks exists in a specific scenario and it has been identified that there is an ROI for digital forensic readiness, then the organization needs to consider what evidence sources need to be gathered.

Summary

Defining the business risk scenarios that are the primary driver for establishing proactive investigative capabilities is the most critical aspect of practicing digital forensic readiness. Although each business risk scenario contains a series of unique use cases and requirements for proactively gathering digital evidence, there remains a degree of commonalities in the justifications for why these data sources need to be readily available.