CONTENTS

	List of Illustrations	vii
	Preface	xiii
	Acknowledgments	xv
Chapter 1	Introduction	1
	The Greenhouse Effect	4
	Global Warming	11
Chapter 2	Early Studies	16
	The Heat-Trapping Envelope	16
	The First Quantitative Estimate	17
	A Simple Alternative	20
Chapter 3	One-Dimensional Model	25
	Radiative-Convective Equilibrium	25
	The Response to CO2 Change	31
Chapter 4	General Circulation Models	37
	The UCLA Model	38
	The GFDL Model	41
Chapter 5	Early Numerical Experiments	50
	Polar Amplification	50
	Seasonal Variation	60
Chapter 6	Climate Sensitivity	70
	Radiative Feedback	70
	The Gain Factor Metric	73
	Feedbacks of the Second Kind	76
	Feedback in 3-D Models	82
Chapter 7	Glacial-Interglacial Contrast	94
	The Geologic Signature	94
	Simulated Glacial-Interglacial Contrast	96
Chapter 8	The Role of the Ocean in Climate Change	106
	The Thermal Inertia of the Ocean	106
	The Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model	113
	Initialization and Flux Adjustment	115
	Global Warming Experiments	118
	The Atlantic Ocean	125
	The Southern Ocean	130
Chapter 9	Cold Climate and Deep Water Formation	137
Chapter 10	Global Change in Water Availability	146
	Acceleration of the Water Cycle	146
	Numerical Experiments	149
	The Latitudinal Profile	152
	River Discharge	156
	Soil Moisture	160
	Implications for the Future	166
	Postscript	167
	References	169
	Index	181