AN INTUITION RESET
1. Adobe Digital Index, December 1, 2014, www.adobe.com/news-room/pressreleases/20l4l2/1201l4AdobeDataShowsCyberMondaySalesUp.html.
2. Adam Jourdan, “Alibaba reports record $9 billion Singles’ Day Sales,” Reuters, November 11, 2014; www.nytimes.com/2013/11/12/business/international/online-shopping-marathon-zooms-off-the-blocks-in-china.html?_r=0. Note that the etymology of Singles Day is also interesting. In Chinese, November 11 is “yao yao yao yao,” and yao also means “me,” so the day is all about “me.”
3. “North Dakota field production of crude oil,” Energy Information Administration, www.eia.gov.
4. Amit Chowdhry, “WhatsApp hits 500 million users,” Forbes.com, April 22, 2014, www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/04/22/whatsapp-hits-500-million-users.
5. PRNewswire, “Facebook reports third quarter 2014 results,” October 28, 2014, http://investor.fb.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=878726.
6. Gardiner Harris, “On a shoestring, India sends orbiter to Mars on its first try,” New York Times, September 25, 2014.
7. James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, “Has the business cycle changed and why?,” National Bureau of Economic Research working paper no. 9127, August 2002, www.nber.org/papers/w9127.
8. Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, Sven Smit, James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, and Yaw Agyenm-Boateng, Urban world: The shifting global business landscape, McKinsey Global Institute, October 2013.
9. Dominic Barton, Andrew Grant, and Michelle Horn, “Leading in the 21st century,” McKinsey Quarterly, June 2012.
10. Richard Dobbs, Sven Smit, Jaana Remes, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, and Alejandra Restrepo, Urban world: Mapping the economic power of cities, McKinsey Global Institute, March 2011.
11. Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Sven Smit, and Fabian Schaer, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey Global Institute, June 2012.
12. MGI Cityscope database. For more detail, you can explore the evolving urban world though the free Android and Apple iOS app Urban World.
13. International Telecommunication Union, World Telecommunication Development Report 1999, October 1999, www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/wtdr_99/material/wtdr99s.pdf.
14. eMarketer, “Smartphone users worldwide will total 1.75 billion in 2014,” eMarketer.com, January 16, 2014, www.emarketer.com/Article/Smartphone-Users-Worldwide-Will-Total-175-Billion-2014/1010536; “The state of broadband 2012: Achieving digital inclusion for all,” Broadband Commission for Digital Development, September 2012, www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/bb-annualreport2012.pdf.
15. Jay Winter and Michael Teitelbaum, The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear, and Uncertainty (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013).
16. European Commission, “The 2012 ageing report: Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies,” Economic and Financial Affairs, April 2011, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2011/pdf/ee-2011-4_en.pdf.
17. United Nations, “World fertility patterns 2013,” Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, January 2014, www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/fertility/world-fertility-patterns-2013.pdf.
18. United Nations, “South-South Trade Monitor,” No. 2, UNCTAD, July 2013; James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Susan Lund, Olivia Nottebohm, David Poulter, Sebastian Jauch, and Sree Ramaswamy, Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy, McKinsey Global Institute, April 2014.
19. Dambisa Moyo, “China helps Africa to develop,” Huffington Post World Post, March 31, 2014, www.huffingtonpost.com/dambisa-moyo/china-is-helping-emerging_b_5051623.html.
20. Manyika et al., Global flows in a digital age.
21. Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, Fraser Thompson, Marcel Brinkman, and Marc Zornes, Resource revolution: Meeting the world’s energy, materials, food, and water needs, McKinsey Global Institute, November 2011.
22. Richard Dobbs, Jeremy Oppenheim, Adam Kendall, Fraser Thompson, Martin Bratt, and Fransje van der Marel, Reverse the curse: Maximizing the potential of resource-driven economies, McKinsey Global Institute, December 2013. As measured by the McKinsey Global Institute’s Commodity Price Index of forty-three key commodities broken into four subgroups: energy, metals, food, and nonfood agricultural materials; Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, vol. 1 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2001).
23. Richard Dobbs, Susan Lund, Charles Roxburgh, James Manyika, Alex Kim, Andreas Schreiner, Riccardo Boin, Rohit Chopra, Sebastian Jauch, Hyun Kim, Megan McDonald, and John Piotrowski, Farewell to cheap capital? The implications of long-term shifts in global investment and saving, McKinsey Global Institute, December 2010.
24. “10 year treasury rate by year,” www.multpl.com/interest-rate/table.
25. Richard Dobbs, Anu Madgavakar, Dominic Barton, Eric Labaye, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Susan Lund, and Siddarth Madhav, The world at work: Jobs, pay, and skills for 3.5 billion people, McKinsey Global Institute, June 2012.
26. Ibid.
27. Grigory Milov, “Smart computers, skilled robots, redundant people,” Vedomosti, May 28, 2013, www.mckinsey.com/global_locations/europe_and_middleeast/russia/en/latest_thinking/smart_computers.
28. Dobbs et al., The world at work.
CHAPTER 1. BEYOND SHANGHAI
1. Based on Tuesday flight schedule, www.google.com/flights/#search;f=KMS;t=ACC;d=2014-09-02;r=2014-09-07;tt=o;q=kumasi+to+accra+direct+flights; based on Africa World Airlines advance promotional fare of GHS 75.
2. “2010 population and housing census: Summary report of final results,” Ghana Statistical Service, May 2013, www.statsghana.gov.gh/docfiles/publications/2010_PHC_National_Analytical_Report.pdf; “The composite budget of the Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly for the 2013 fiscal year,” Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly, Republic of Ghana, www.mofep.gov.gh/sites/default/files/budget/2013/AR/Kumasi.pdf.
3. “GNI per capita, PPP,” World Bank database, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GNIPC.pdf.
4. Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Sven Smit, and Fabian Schaer, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey Global Institute, June 2012.
5. World Bank Database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD.
6. World Bank database; James Manyika, Jeff Sinclair, Richard Dobbs, Gernot Strube, Louis Rassey, Jan Mischke, Jaana Remes, Charles Roxburgh, Katy George, David O’Halloran, and Sreenivas Ramaswamy, Manufacturing the future: The next era of global growth and innovation, McKinsey Global Institute, November 2012.
7. Paul Hannon, “Emerging markets take largest share of international investment in 2013,” Wall Street Journal, January 28, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000l42405270230355320457934837296l110250; Global Investment Trends Monitor no. 15, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, January 28, 2014, http://unctad.org/en/publicationslibrary/webdiaeia2014d1_en.pdf.
8. Yuval Atsmon, Peter Child, Richard Dobbs, and Laxman Narasimhan, “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon: Going for gold in emerging markets,” McKinsey Quarterly, August 2012.
9. Dobbs et al., Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class.
10. Exhibit E2; Dobbs et al., Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class.
11. Ibid.
12. Richard Dobbs, Sven Smit, Jaana Remes, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, and Alejandra Restrepo, Urban world: Mapping the economic power of cities, McKinsey Global Institute, March 2011.
13. Bloomberg News, “Li Keqiang urges more urbanization to support China’s growth,” Bloomberg News, November 21, 2012, www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-21/li-keqiang-urges-deeper-urbanization-to-support-china-s-growth.html; UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanization prospects 2014 revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/CD-ROM/Default.aspx.
14. Daniel Gross, “The real China: Urban wealth, rural poverty,” Yahoo Finance, November 7, 2011, http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daniel-gross/real-china-urban-wealth-rural-poverty-124416045.html.
15. Stephen S. Roach, “Generating ‘next China,’” China Daily USA, September 1, 2012, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-09/01/content_15725888.htm.
16. Ian Johnson, “China releases plan to incorporate farmers into cities,” New York Times, March 17, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/china-releases-plan-to-integrate-farmers-in-cities.html.
17. Dexter Roberts, “China wants its people in the cities,” Bloomberg Businessweek, March 20, 2014, www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-20/china-wants-its-people-in-the-cities.
18. Richard Dobbs and Shirish Sankhe, “Comparing urbanization in China and India,” McKinsey & Company, July 2010, www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/comparing_urbanization_in_china_and_india.
19. The Millennium Development Goals Report 2013, United Nations, 2013, www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/report-2013/mdg-report-2013-english.pdf.
20. Dobbs et al., “Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class.”
21. Exhibit 1; Yuval Atsmon, Peter Child, Richard Dobbs, and Laxman Narasimhan, “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon,” August 2012.
22. Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, “Danone expands in Africa with 49% stake in dairy,” Financial Times (London), October 24, 2013, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7da59ec2-3cbe-11e3-86ef-00l44feab7de.html#axzz3alaccule.
23. Shirish Sankhe, Ireena Vittal, Richard Dobbs, Ajit Mohan, Ankur Gulati, Jonathan Ablett, Shishir Gupta, Alex Kim, Sudipto Paul, Aditya Sanghvi, and Gurpreet Sethy, India’s urban awakening: Building inclusive cities, sustaining economic growth, McKinsey Global Institute, April 2010.
24. Shirish Sankhe, Ireena Vittal, Richard Dobbs, Ajit Mohan, Ankur Gulati, Jonathan Ablett, Shishir Gupta, Alex Kim, Sudipto Paul, Aditya Sanghvi, and Gurpreet Sethy, India’s urban awakening: Building inclusive cities, sustaining economic growth, McKinsey Global Institute, April 2010.
25. Department of population and economic affairs, “World urbanization prospects, Highlights,” 2011, revision.
26. Department of population and economic affairs, “World urbanization prospects, Highlights”; Dobbs et al., Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class.
27. Dobbs et al., Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class.
28. Luís M. A. Bettencourt et al., “Urban scaling and its deviations: Revealing the structure of wealth, innovation, and crime across cities,” PLOS ONE, November 10, 2010, www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0013541.
29. Scott Burnham, “Reprogramming the city: Can urban innovation meet growing needs?” Guardian (Manchester), September 28, 2013, www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/reprogramming-city-urban-infrastructure-changes.
30. Ibid.
31. Scott Burnham, “Existing city infrastructure can be ‘reprogrammed,’” Green Futures Magazine, September 26, 2013, www.forumforthefuture.org/greenfutures/articles/existing-city-infrastructure-can-be-%E2%80%98reprogrammed%E2%80%99.
32. “Visual explorations of urban mobility: Traffic origins,” Senseable City Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, http://senseable.mit.edu/visual-explorations-urban-mobility/traffic-origins.html
33. Raoul Oberman, Richard Dobbs, Arief Budiman, Fraser Thompson, and Morten Rossé, The archipelago economy: Unleashing Indonesia’s potential, McKinsey Global Institute, September 2012.
34. Mercer, “2014 cost of living survey rankings,” July 2014, www.mercer.com/newsroom/cost-of-living-survey.html.
35. “Panasonic to pay China workers pollution compensation,” BBC.com, March 12, 2014, www.bbc.com/news/business-26555874.
36. “Ghanaian city to get a skytrain,” African Review of Business and Technology, March 14, 2014, www.africanreview.com/transport-a-logistics/rail/kumasi-metropolis-to-get-a-skytrain.
CHAPTER 2. THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG
1. “The Knowledge,” The London Taxi Experience, www.the-london-taxi.com/london_taxi_knowledge.
2. Brendan Greeley, “Cabsplaining: A London black car driver on the Uber protest,” Bloomberg Businessweek, June 11, 2014, www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-11/cabsplaining-a-london-black-car-driver-on-the-uber-protest.
3. “Uber: Why London cabbies hate the taxi app,” The Week, June 11, 2014, www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/58491/uber-why-london-cabbies-hate-taxi-app.
4. Juliette Garside and Gwyn Topham, “Uber taxis face legal battles from London black-cab drivers,” Guardian (Manchester), May 29, 2014, www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/29/uber-taxis-legal-battles-london-black-cab-drivers.
5. John Alridge, “Fare fight: It’s Uber v Hailo v Addison Lee in London’s taxi wars,” London Evening Standard, January 17, 2014, www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/esmagazine/fare-fight-its-uber-v-hailo-v-addison-lee-in-the-londons-taxi-wars-9064289.html.
6. “TripIndex Cities 2013,” TripAdvisor United Kingdom, www.tripadvisor.co.uk/infocenter-a_ctr.tripindex_Cities_2013_UK.
7. “Hailo arrives in Cork” (press release), July 1, 2013, https://hailocab.com/ireland/press-releases/hailo-cork-release.
9. Evelyn M. Rusli and Douglas MacMillan, “Uber gets an uber-valuation,” Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/uber-gets-uber-valuation-of-18-2-billion-1402073876.
10. Ian Silvera, “Uber CEO Travis Kalanick: We will have 42,000 London drivers in 2016,” International Business Times, October 2014, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/uber-ceo-travis-kalanick-we-will-have-42000-london-drivers-2016-1468436.
11. “Angry London cabbies attack Hailo taxi app office,” BBC.com, May 22, 2014, www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-27517914.
12. Rhiannon Williams, “Uber adds black cabs amid claims taxi strike ‘could cost lives,’” Telegraph (London), June 11, 2014, www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10891442/Uber-adds-black-cabs-amid-claims-taxi-strike-could-cost-lives.html.
13. “2,500,000 BCE to 8,000 BCE timeline,” Jeremy Norman’s HistoryofInformation.com, www.historyofinformation.com/expanded.php?Id=4071.
14. W. Brian Arthur, “The second economy,” McKinsey Quarterly, October, 2011.
16. “Innovation in Cambridge: Human Genome Project,” www.cambridgehistory.org/discover/innovation/Human_Genome.html.
17. James Manyika, Michael Chui, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Peter Bisson, and Alex Marrs, Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2013.
18. Ibid.
19. Exhibit E3; Manyika et al., Disruptive technologies.
20. Ashlee Vance, “Illumina’s DNA supercomputer ushers in the $1,000 human genome,” Bloomberg Businessweek, January 14, 2014, www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-01-14/illuminas-dna-supercomputer-ushers-in-the-1-000-human-genome.
21. Manyika et al., Disruptive technologies, and accompanying slideshow “A Gallery of Disruptive Technologies.”
22. Ibid.
23. Joseph Bradley, Joel Barbier, and Doug Handler, “Embracing the Internet of everything to capture your share of $14.4 trillion,” Cisco Systems, February 12, 2013.
24. Manyika et al., Disruptive technologies.
25. HowieT, “The big bang: How the big data explosion is changing the world,” Microsoft UK Enterprise Insights Blog, April 15, 2013, http://blogs.msdn.com/b/microsoftenterpriseinsight/archive/2013/04/15/the-big-bang-how-the-big-data-explosion-is-changing-the-world.aspx.
26. James Manyika, Michael Chui, Brad Brown, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Charles Roxburgh, and Angela Hung Byers, Big data: The next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011.
27. As data proliferates, larger units of measurement are needed to describe storage space: 1,024 gigabytes = 1 terabyte; 1,024 terabytes = 1 petabyte; 1,024 petabytes = 1 exabyte; John Gantz and David Reinsel, “The digital universe in 2020: Big data, bigger digital shadows, and biggest growth in the Far East,” IDC, EMC Corporation, December 2012, www.emc.com/collateral/analyst-reports/idc-the-digital-universe-in-2020.pdf.
28. James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Susan Lund, Olivia Nottebohm, David Poulter, Sebastian Jauch, and Sree Ramaswamy, Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy, McKinsey Global Institute, April 2014.
29. James Manyika, Michael Chui, Diana Farrell, Steve Van Kuiken, Peter Groves, and Elizabeth Almasi Doshi, Open data: Unlocking innovation and performance with liquid information, McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey Center for Government, and McKinsey Business Technology Office, October 2013.
30. “Innovation in government: Kenya and Georgia,” McKinsey & Company, September 2011.
31. Blair Claflin, “Employees use skills to reduce traffic congestion in Pune,” Cummins Inc., www.cummins.com/cmi/navigationAction.do?nodeId=219&siteId=1&nodeName=Reducing+Traffic+in+Pune&menuId=1050.
32. “Haiti,” Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team, http://hot.openstreetmap.org/projects/haiti-2.
33. Michael Chui, James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Charles Roxburgh, Hugo Sarrazin, Geoffrey Sands and Magdalena Westergren, The social economy: Unlocking productivity and value through social technologies, McKinsey Global Institute, July 2012.
34. Drew DeSilver, “Overseas users power Facebook’s growth; more going mobile-only,” Pew Research Center Fact Tank, February 4, 2014, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/02/04/overseas-users-power-facebooks-growth-more-going-mobile-only.
35. Josh Ong, “Tencent’s WeChat messaging app passes 300m users, adding its latest 100m in just 4 months,” The Next Web, January 16, 2013, http://thenextweb.com/asia/2013/01/16/tencents-wechat-tops-300-million-users-days-before-its-second-birthday/1.
36. MG Siegler, “App Store now has 150,000 apps. Great news for the iPad: Paid books rule,” TechCrunch, February 12, 2010, http://techcrunch.com/2010/02/12/app-store-numbers-books-ipad.
37. Seth Fiegerman, “Apple App Store tops 75 billion downloads,” Mashable, June 2, 2014, http://mashable.com/2014/06/02/apple-app-store-stats-2014.
38. Manyika et al., Disruptive technologies,; Nirmalya Chatterjee, “Global industrial robotics market (products, functions, applications and geography)—global analysis, industry growth, trends, size, share, opportunities and forecast—2013–2020,” Allied Market Research, May 2014, www.alliedmarketresearch.com/industrial-robotics-market.
39. “Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and methodology, 2013–2018,” Cisco Systems, June 10, 2014.
40. Matthieu Pélissié du Rausas, James Manyika, Eric Hazan, Jacques Bughin, Michael Chui, and Rémi Said, Internet matters: The Net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011.
41. Jacques Bughin and James Manyika, “Measuring the full impact of digital capital,” McKinsey Quarterly, July 2013.
42. Richard D. Kahlenberg, Broken Contract: A Memoir of Harvard Law School (NY: Hill and Wang, 1992).
43. “Creative destruction whips through corporate America,” Innosight Executive Briefing, winter 2012, www.innosight.com/innovation-resources/strategy-innovation/upload/creative-destruction-whips-through-corporate-america_final2012.pdf.
44. Ibid.
45. Ibid.
46. Bill Gurley, “A deeper look at Uber’s dynamic pricing model,” Above the Crowd, March 11, 2014, http://abovethecrowd.com/20l4/03/11/a-deeper-look-at-ubers-dynamic-pricing-model/; Matthew Panzarino, “Leaked Uber numbers, which we’ve confirmed, point to over $1B gross, $213M revenue,” TechCrunch, December 4, 2013, http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/04/leaked-uber-numbers-which-weve-confirmed-point-to-over-1b-gross-revenue-213m-revenue.
47. Salvador Rodriguez, “Lyft surpasses 1 million rides, expands to Washington, D.C.,” Los Angeles Times, August 9, 2013, http://articles.latimes.com/2013/aug/09/business/la-fi-tn-lyft-1-million-washington-dc-20130808.
48. “AHA statistical update: Heart disease and stroke statistics—2013 update,” American Heart Association, Circulation 2013:127:e6–e245, December 12, 2012.
49. “Medtronic launches CareLink Express™ Service” (press release), Medtronic, August 14, 2012, http://newsroom.medtronic.com/phoenix.zhtml?C=251324&p=irol-newsarticle&ID=1769548.
50. Amy Dockser Marcus and Christopher Weaver, “Heart gadgets test privacy-law limits,” Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970203937004578078820874744076.
51. Kiva website: www.kiva.org/about.
52. Kickstarter website: www.kickstarter.com/help/stats?ref=footer.
53. Martin Hirt and Paul Willmott, “Strategic principles for competing in the digital age,” McKinsey Quarterly, May 2014.
54. Amit Chowdhry, “WhatsApp hits 500 million users,” Forbes.com, April 22, 2014, www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2014/04/22/whatsapp-hits-500-million-users.
55. Darrell Etherington, “Snapchat accounts for more photo shares than Instagram as pic sharing set to double in 2013,” TechCrunch, May 29, 2013, http://techcrunch.com/2013/05/29/snapchat-accounts-for-more-photo-shares-than-instagram-as-pic-sharing-set-to-double-in-2013.
56. Jacques Bughin, Michael Chui, and James Manyika, “Ten IT-enabled business trends for the decade ahead,” McKinsey on Business Technology 33, spring 2014; Panzarino, “Leaked Uber numbers”; Rodriguez, “Lyft surpasses 1 million rides.”
57. Francesco Banfi, Paul-Louis Caylar, Ewan Duncan, and Ken Kajii, “E-journey: Digital marketing and the ‘path to purchase,’” McKinsey & Company, January 2013.
58. http://uk.burberry.com/store-locator/regent-street-store.
59. Matthieu Pélissié du Rausas, James Manyika, Eric Hazan, Jacques Bughin, Michael Chui, and Rémi Said, Internet matters: The Net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011.
60. www.linkedin.com/mnyfe/subscriptionv2?displayProducts=&trk=nav_responsive_sub_nav_upgrade.
61. 2013 Annual Report, LinkedIn, April 2014, http://investors.linkedin.com/annuals.cfm.
62. “Glossybox flogs 4 million boxes within two and a half years,” deutsche-start-ups.com, July 9, 2013, www.deutsche-start-ups.com/2013/07/09/glossybox-flogs-4-million-boxes-within-two-and-a-half-years.
63. Graham Ruddick, “Families snack on graze boxes,” Telegraph (London), November 10, 2013, www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/10439490/Families-snack-on-graze-boxes.html.
64. Doni Bloomfield, “New York Times drops after forecasting decline in ad revenue,” Bloomberg, October 2014, www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-30/new-york-times-beats-earnings-estimates-as-online-ads-increase.html.
65. “Paywalls open doors,” The Economist, March 27, 2014, www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2014/03/start-ups-slovakia.
66. Rick Edmonds, “Slovakian Piano Media acquires Press+ and aims to take paid digital content global,” Poynter.org, September 8, 2014, www.poynter.org/latest-news/businessnews/266839/slovakian-piano-media-acquires-press-and-aims-to-take-paid-digital-content-global.
67. Misty White Sidell, “Is this the future of make-up? New 3-D printer lets you create unlimited lipstick and eyeshadow at home—for $200,” Daily Mail (London), May 6, 2014, www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-2621837/Is-future-make-New-3-D-printer-lets-create-unlimited-lipstick-eyeshadow-home-200.html.
68. Ben Elgin, “Google buys Android for its mobile arsenal,” Bloomberg BusinessWeek, August 16, 2005, www.businessweek.com/stories/2005-08-16/google-buys-android-for-its-mobile-arsenal.
69. Stephen Baker, “Google-YouTube: Was it worth $1.6 billion?,” Bloomberg BusinessWeek, May 21, 2008, www.businessweek.com/stories/2008-05-21/google-youtube-was-it-worth-1-dot-6-billion.
70. Larry Page, Larry Page at Zeitgeist Americas 2013, YouTube video clip, September 20, 2013.
71. Christina Farr, “Tech IPOs in 2013: Enterprise rules, and a watershed e-commerce moment,” VentureBeat, December 26, 2013, http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/26/tech-ipos-in-2013-enterprise-rules-and-a-watershed-e-commerce-moment.
73. http://digital-accelerator.com.
74. “Walgreens appoints Sonia Chawla to newly created role as president of digital and chief marketing officer” (press release), Walgreens, November 21, 2013, http://news.walgreens.com/article_display.cfm?Article_id=5823.
75. “Walgreen to buy drugstore.com,” Dealbook, New York Times, March 24, 2011, http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/walgreens-to-buy-drugstore-com.
76. Brian T. Horowitz, “Walgreens opens API for mobile prescription scanning to developers,” eWeek.com, February 13, 2013, www.eweek.com/developer/walgreens-opens-api-for-mobile-prescription-scanning-to-developers/?Bcsi-ac-e9597abe29b9070f=225a122e000000051s0pg2wbcqfx1kzbtjdvptjxtbqmaaaabqaaaitsggdaqaaaaaaaakxbcqa=; Adam Pressman and Deepika Pandey, “Chains need to go beyond multichannel, omnichannel,” Chain Drug Review, October 28, 2013, www.chaindrugreview.com/inside-this-issue/opinion/10-28-2013/chains-need-to-go-beyond-multichannel-omnichannel.
77. Michael Zennie and Louise Boyle, “Billion dollar deal makes 26-year-old America’s next tech tycoon: High school drop-out behind blogging site Tumblr sells it to Marissa Mayer’s Yahoo,” Daily Mail (London), May 19, 2013, www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326998/Yahoo-buys-Tumblr-1-1billion-Founder-David-Karp-tech-tycoon.html.
78. Sarah Perez, “@WalmartLabs buys adtech start-up Adchemy, its biggest talent deal yet,” TechCrunch, May 5, 2014, http://techcrunch.com/2014/05/05/walmartlabs-buys-adtech-start-up-adchemy-its-biggest-talent-deal-yet.
79. www.sephora.com/about-us; Jason Del Rey, “In-store tech is so hot right now: Sephora acquires fragrance software start-up Scentsa,” All Things D, August 7, 2013, http://allthingsd.com/20130807/in-store-tech-is-so-hot-right-now-sephora-acquires-fragrance-software-start-up-scentsa.
80. Colin Morrison, “How Axel Springer can be a digital media champion,” Flashes and Flames, April 25, 2014, www.flashesandflames.com/2014/04/how-axel-springer-can-become-a-digital-media-champion.
81. Ibid.
82. David Meyer, “Axel Springer invests in privacy-friendly search start-up Qwant,” Gigaom, June 19, 2014, http://gigaom.com/2014/06/19/axel-springer-invests-in-privacy-friendly-search-start-up-qwant.
CHAPTER 3. GETTING OLD ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE
1. Awesome-o, “Robovie R3 unveiled,” Robotics Zeitgeist, April 22, 2010, http://robotzeitgeist.com/2010/04/robovie-r3-unveiled.html.
2. “Field listing: Median age,” The World Factbook, US Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2177.html; “Population ages 65 and above (% of total),” World Bank database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS.
3. “Fertility rate, total (births per woman),” World Bank database, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN.
4. Daniel Gross, “Why Japan isn’t rising,” Slate, July 18, 2009, www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2009/07/why_japan_isnt_rising.html.
5. “South Asia: Pakistan,” The World Factbook, US Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html.
6. “Country comparison: Total fertility rate,” The World Factbook, US Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html.
7. Elizabeth Kolbert, “Head count,” New Yorker, October 21, 2013, www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2013/10/21/131021crbo_books_kolbert?Currentpage=2.
8. “Country comparison,” The World Factbook.
9. Ibid.
10. MGI analysis: Demographics and Employment, 2014.
11. Ibid.
12. Ibid.
13. Jay Winter and Michael Teitelbaum, The Global Spread of Fertility Decline: Population, Fear, and Uncertainty (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013).
14. “Fertility rate, total,” World Bank database.
15. MGI analysis: Demographics and Employment, 2014.
16. “EU27 population is expected to peak by around 2040” (press release), Eurostat, European Commission, June 8, 2011, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-08062011-BP/EN/3-08062011-BP-EN.PDF.
17. The 2012 ageing report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 27 EU member states (2010–2060), European Commission, February 2012, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2012/pdf/ee-2012-2_en.pdf.
18. The 2012 ageing report: Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies, European Commission, April 2011, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2011/pdf/ee-2011-4_en.pdf.
19. Ibid.
20. MGI analysis: Demographics and Employment, 2014.
21. World population prospects: The 2012 revision, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, June 2013, http://esa.un.org/wpp.
22. Ibid.
23. Sarah O’Connor, “World will have 13 ‘super-aged’ nations by 2020,” Financial Times (London), August 6, 2014, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f356f8a0-1d8c-11e4-8f0c-00144feabdc0.html.
24. “Dean Xie Danyang blueprints Wuhan’s future: An international city in 2040” (press release), EMBA Education Center of Wuhan University, April 16, 2014, http://emba.whu.edu.cn/en/News/News/2014-04-16/1287.php.
25. “Field listing: Median age,” The World Factbook.
26. Richard Dobbs, Anu Madgavkar, Dominic Barton, Eric Labaye, James Minyika, Charles Roxburgh, Susan Lund, and Siddarth Madhav, “The world at work: Jobs, pay, and skills for 3.5 billion people,” June 2012, McKinsey & Company.
27. Benjamin Shobert, “Bank on it,” Slate, November 5, 2013, www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/11/feng_kexiong_s_volunteer_bank_plan_to_care_for_china_s_elderly.html.
28. James Manyika, Michael Chui, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Peter Bisson, and Alex Marrs, Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2013.
29. Ibid.
30. Peter Baker, “Kagan is sworn in as the fourth woman, and 112th justice, on the Supreme Court,” New York Times, August 7, 2010, www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/us/08kagan.html?_r=0
31. Dobbs et al., “The world at work.”
32. MGI analysis: Demographics and Employment, 2014.
33. Ibid.
34. Dobbs et al., “The world at work.”
35. O’Connor, “World will have 13 ‘super-aged’ nations by 2020.”
36. Dobbs et al., “The world at work.”
37. Suzanne Daley and Nicholas Kulish, “Germany fights population drop,” New York Times, August 13, 2013.
38. “China reforms: One-child policy to be relaxed,” BBC.com, November 15, 2013, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-24957303; “Women at Work,” Finance & Development, volume 50, number 2, International Monetary Fund, June 2013, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/06/pdf/fd0613.pdf.
39. Dobbs et al., “The world at work.”
40. Ibid.
41. Ibid.
42. Ibid.
43. Global aging 2013: Rising to the challenge, Standard & Poor’s, March 20, 2013, www.mhfigi.com/societal-trends/global-aging-2013-rising-to-the-challenge.
44. Rafal Chomik and Edward R. Whitehouse, Trends in pension eligibility ages and life expectancy, 1950–2050, OECD Social, Employment and Migration working papers number 105, 2010.
45. Szu Ping Chan, “Pensions free-for-all ‘risks leaving millions in poverty,’” Telegraph (London), March 29, 2014, www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/10732126/Pensions-free-for-all-risks-leaving-millions-in-poverty.html.
46. Barbara A. Butrica, Howard M. Iams, Karen E. Smith, and Eric J. Toder, “The disappearing defined benefit pension and its potential impact on the retirement incomes of baby boomers,” US Social Security Administration, Social Security Bulletin 69, no. 3, 2009, www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v69n3/v69n3p1.html. More recent data from National Compensation Survey, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2013.
47. “Defined benefit pensions: Plan freezes affect millions of participants and may pose retirement income challenges,” US Government Accountability Office, 2008, www.gao.gov/new.items/d08817.pdf.
48. “Working longer: Older Americans’ attitudes on work and retirement,” Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 2013, www.apnorc.org/projects/Pages/working-longer-older-americans-attitudes-on-work-and-retirement.aspx.
49. “Leading in the 21st century: An interview with HCA CEO Richard Bracken,” McKinsey & Company, November 2013.
50. Rebecca L. Ray et al., The state of human capital: False summit, McKinsey & Company and The Conference Board, October 2012; Sustainability report 2008, Toyota Motor Corporation, July 2008, www.toyota-global.com/sustainability/report/sr/08/pdf/sustainability_report08.pdf.
51. French employment 2020: Five priorities for action, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2012.
52. Ibid.; “Older employees driving value,” News and views, Centrica, October 1, 2013, www.centrica.com/index.asp?Pageid=1042&blogid=695.
53. Innovative Practices Executive Case Report No. 5, Sloan Center on Aging and Work, 2012.
54. Georges Desvaux and Baudouin Regout, “Meeting the 2030 French consumer: How European-wide trends will shape the consumer landscape,” McKinsey Consumer and Shopper Insights, May 2010.
55. Ibid.
56. Ibid.
57. Yuval Atsmon and Max Magni, “Meet the Chinese consumer of 2020,” McKinsey Quarterly, March 2012.
59. PT, “Thomas Cook launches ‘Silver Breaks’ for elderly travellers,” The Hindu (Chennai), June 15, 2014, www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/thomas-cook-launches-silver-breaks-for-elderly-travellers/article6116909.ece.
60. http://info.singtel.com/personal/silverline.
61. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vilUhBhNnQc.
62. “Depend and the great American try on: Repositioning incontinence from the bathroom to the forefront of pop culture,” PRWeek Awards 2013, http://awards.prweekus.com/depend-and-great-american-try-repositioning-incontinence-bathroom-forefront-pop-culture.
63. Olivia Goh, “Successful ageing—a review of Singapore’s policy approaches,” Civil Service College Singapore, Ethos, no. 1, October 2006, www.cscollege.gov.sg/Knowledge/Ethos/Issue%201%20Oct%202006/Pages/Successful-Ageing-A-Review-of-Singapores-Policy-Approaches.aspx.
64. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, “Magnitude and speed of population ageing,” chapter 2 in World Population Ageing 1950–2050 (NY: UN, 2002), www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/pdf/80chapterii.pdf.
65. Mansoor Dalal, “Senior living India . . . a need whose time has come!!!” Association of Senior Living India, www.asli.org.in/page-seniorlivingindia.html.
66. Japan retail market, Japan Retail News, www.japanretailnews.com/japans-retail-market.html.
67. Adam Westlake, “Aeon opens senior-focused shopping center,” Japan Daily Press, April 25, 2012, http://japandailypress.com/aeon-opens-senior-focused-shopping-center-251330/; Louise Lucas, “Retailers target grey spending power,” Financial Times (London), August 14, 2012, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bb60a5b2-e608-11e1-a430-00144feab49a.html#axzz3blwglwyg.
68. Christophe Nedopil, Youse and Bradley Schurman, “Age friendly banking: A global overview of best practices,” AARP, June 27, 2014, www.aarpinternational.org/resource-library/resources/age-friendly-banking-a-global-overview-of-best-practices.
69. “Amazon launches 50+ Active and Healthy Living Store featuring hundreds of thousands of items in one single destination” (press release), Business Wire, April 15, 2013, www.businesswire.com/news/home/20130415005498/en/Amazon-Launches-50-Active-Healthy-Living-Store#.U_s3ycwwkpc.
70. Roger Blitz, “Saga tests the water for stock market debut,” Financial Times (London), February 16, 2014, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55288bfc-970f-11e3-809f-00144feab7de.html; Saga market capitalisation, Hargreaves Lansdown, www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/saga-plc-ordinary-1p.
72. “Raku-Raku phone series reaches 20 million unit sales in Japan” (press release), NTT Socomo, July 22, 2011, www.nttdocomo.co.jp/english/info/media_center/pr/2011/001534.html.
73. David Pierce, “Fujitsu’s futuristic cane does so much more than help you walk,” The Verge, February 27, 2013, www.theverge.com/2013/2/27/4036228/fujitsus-futuristic-next-generation-cane-hands-on.
CHAPTER 4. TRADE, PEOPLE, FINANCE, AND DATA
1. Melody Ng, “Shanghai Pudong Airport to build world’s biggest satellite concourse,” The Moodie Report, February 10, 2014, www.moodiereport.com/document.php?doc_id=38312.
2. “Ever wondered how everything you buy from China gets here? Welcome to the port of Shanghai—the size of 470 football pitches,” Daily Mail (London), October 29, 2013, www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2478975/Shanghai-port-worlds-busiest-handles-736m-tonnes-year.html.
3. James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Susan Lund, Olivia Nottebohm, David Poulter, Sebastian Jauch, and Sree Ramaswamy, Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy, McKinsey Global Institute, April 2014.
4. “Leading in the 21st century: An interview with Shell’s Ann Pickard,” McKinsey & Company, June 2014.
5. IMF e-library; Graeme Wearden, “IMF: World economy to shrink for first time in 60 years in ‘Great Recession,’” Guardian (Manchester), March 10, 2009, www.theguardian.com/business/2009/mar/10/imf-great-recession.
6. Manyika et al., “Global flows in a digital age.”
7. Ibid.
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid.
10. Ibid.
11. South-South Trade Monitor, no. 2, UNCTAD, July 2013; Manyika et al., Global flows in a digital age.
12. Dambisa Moyo, “China helps Africa to develop,” Huffington Post World Post, March 31, 2014, www.huffingtonpost.com/dambisa-moyo/china-is-helping-emerging_b_5051623.html.
13. Manyika et al., “Global flows in a digital age.”
14. Ibid.
15. Ibid.
16. Susan Lund, Toos Daruvala, Richard Dobbs, Philipp Härle, Ju-Hon Kwek, and Ricardo Falcón, Financial globalization: Retreat or reset? McKinsey Global Institute, March 2013.
17. Claire Gatinois, “Portugal indebted to Angola after economic reversal of fortune,” Guardian Weekly (London), June 3, 2014, www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/03/portugal-economy-bailout-angola-invests.
18. Pankaj Mishra, “Infosys CEO SD Shibulal owns 700+ apartments in Seattle; now buying in Berlin, Frankfurt,” The Economic Times, June 23, 2014, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-23/news/50798685_1_shruti-shibulal-infosys-ceo-sd-shibulal-tamara-coorg.
19. “Bright Food said to pay $960 million for Tnuva stake,” Bloomberg News, May 22, 2014, www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-22/bright-food-said-to-pay-960-million-for-tnuva-stake.html.
20. Manyika et al., “Global flows in a digital age.”
21. Charles Roxburgh, Susan Lund, Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Haihao Wu, The emerging equity gap: Growth and stability in the new investor landscape, McKinsey Global Institute, December 2011.
22. Lund et al., Financial globalization.
23. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “Trends in total migrant stock: The 2005 tevision,” February 2006, www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/UN_Migrant_Stock_Documentation_2005.pdf; “Number of international migrants rises above 232 million, UN reports” (press release), United Nations News Centre, September 11, 2013, www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?Newsid=45819&Cr=migrants&Cr1=#.U9_jcendvp0.
24. Mary Medeiros Kent, “More US scientists and engineers are foreign-born,” Population Reference Bureau, January 2011, www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2011/usforeignbornstem.aspx.
25. James Fontanella-Khan, “Romanians despair that wealthy Britain is taking all their doctors,” Financial Times (London), January 14, 2014, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4c0b734-7c70-11e3-b514-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3bwxijwoo.
26. Maram Hussein, “Bangladeshi expats happy to work in Qatar, says envoy,” Qatar Tribune, October 7, 2013, www.qatar-tribune.com/viewnews.aspx?N=DD3FCF9D-5E03-47DC-B8AF-EFFDB77AF298&d=20131007; http://unbconnect.com/tofail-qatar/#&panel1-1.
27. Damien Cave, “Migrants’ new paths reshaping Latin America,” New York Times, January 5, 2012, www.nytimes.com/2012/01/06/world/americas/migrants-new-paths-reshaping-latin-america.html?Pagewanted=all&_r=0.
28. UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2013 edition, United Nations World Tourism Organization; Economic Impact of Travel & Tourism 2013 Annual Update, World Travel & Tourism Council, 2013.
29. “US passports issued per fiscal year (2013–1996),” US Department of State, http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/english/passports/statistics.html; Andrew Bender, “Record number of Americans now hold passports,” Forbes.com, January 30, 2012, www.forbes.com/sites/andrewbender/2012/01/30/record-number-of-americans-now-hold-passports.
30. The Economist, “Coming to a Beach Near You,” April 2014. http://www.economist.com/news/international/21601028-how-growing-chinese-middle-class-changing-global-tourism-industry-coming.
31. 2012 Open Doors Report, Institute of International Education, 2012.
32. Daniel Gross, “Myth of decline: US is stronger and faster than anywhere else,” Newsweek, April 30, 2012, www.newsweek.com/myth-decline-us-stronger-and-faster-anywhere-else-64093.
33. Facebook website, http://newsroom.fb.com/company-info/; Kishore Mahbubani, “The global village has arrived,” IMF, Finance & Development 49, no. 3, September 2012.
34. Manyika et al., “Global flows in a digital age.”
35. Matthieu Pélissié du Rausas, James Manyika, Eric Hazan, Jacques Bughin, Michael Chui, and Rémi Said, Internet matters: The Net’s sweeping impact on growth, jobs, and prosperity, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2011.
36. Olivia Nottebohm, James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Michael Chui, and Abdur-Rahim Syed, Online and upcoming: The Internet’s impact on aspiring countries, McKinsey & Company, January 2012.
37. eTransform Africa: The transformational use of information and communication technologies in Africa, World Bank and African Development Bank, December 2012; International Telecommunication Union statistics, 2012.
38. James Manyika, Armando Cabral, Lohini Moodley, Safroadu Yeboah-Amankwah, Suraj Moraje, Michael Chui, Jerry Anthonyrajah, and Ache Leke, Lions go digital: The Internet’s transformative potential in Africa, McKinsey Global Institute, November 2013.
39. Damian Hattingh, Bill Russo, Ade Sun-Basorun, and Arend Van Wamelen, The rise of the African consumer, McKinsey & Company, October 2012.
40. Manyika et al., Lions go digital.
41. Michelle Atanga, “MTN ready to pour $400m into Africa and Middle East start-ups,” VentureBurn, December 20, 2013, http://ventureburn.com/2013/12/mtn-ready-to-pour-in-400m-into-africa-middle-east-start-ups.
42. David Okwii, “Rocket Internet VC and start-up incubator takes on the Ugandan Internet space,” Dignited, June 6, 2014, www.dignited.com/7977/rocket-internet-vc-start-up-incubator-takes-ugandan-internet-space.
43. Jonathan Cummings, James Manyika, Lenny Mendonca, Ezra Greenberg, Steven Aronowitz, Rohit Chopra, Katy Elkin, Sreenivas Ramaswamy, Jimmy Soni, and Allison Watson, Growth and competitiveness in the United States: The role of its multinational companies, McKinsey Global Institute, June 2010.
44. Manyika et al., “Global flows in a digital age.”
45. Ibid.
46. Manyika et al., “Global flows in a digital age”; Pankaj Ghemawat and Steven A. Altman, “DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014,” www.dhl.com/en/about_us/logistics_insights/studies_research/global_connectedness_index/global_connectedness_index.html#.VHnZWMkXn4Y.
47. “GE partners with the Millennium Challenge Corporation to provide $500 million in financing to Ghana 1000 project” (press release), August 5, 2014, http://allafrica.com/stories/201408061542.html; “GE to invest $2 billion in Africa by 2018” (press release), Business Wire, August 4, 2014, www.businesswire.com/news/home/20140803005030/en/GE-Invest-2-Billion-Africa-2018#.VDQoFvk7u-0.
48. Daniel Gross, “Coke applies supply-chain expertise to deliver AIDS drugs in Africa,” The Daily Beast, September 25, 2012, www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/25/coke-applies-supply-chain-expertise-to-deliver-aids-drugs-in-africa.html.
49. Kenneth Rogoff, “Can Greece avoid the lion,” Project Syndicate, February 3, 2010, www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/can-greece-avoid-the-lion-.
50. Stephen Hall, Dan Lovallo, and Reinier Musters, “How to put your money where your strategy is,” McKinsey Quarterly, March 2012.
51. Katy George, Sree Ramaswamy, and Lou Rassey, “Next-shoring: A CEO’s guide,” McKinsey Quarterly, January 2014.
52. Mike Doheny, Venu Nagali, and Florian Weig, “Agile Manufacturing for volatile times,” McKinsey & Company, 2012.
55. “Portfolio: B & W Group,” Sofina, www.sofina.be/EN/participation/bw.php; Peter Marsh, “UK ‘micro-multinationals’ lead the way,” Financial Times (London), August 22, 2011, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c353610-c67f-11e0-bb50-00144feabdc0.html#axzz39vspj1cz.
56. Marsh, “UK ‘micro-multinationals’ lead the way.”
57. Nottebohm et al., Online and upcoming.
58. “Best new retail launch 2013—Jumia,” World Retail Awards, September 30, 2014, www.worldretailawards.com/resources/best-new-retail-launch-2013-%E2%80%93-jumia.
59. www.boeing.com/boeing/commercial/aviationservices/integrated-services/digital-airline.page.
60. Etsy Progress Report 2013, http://extfiles.etsy.com/progress-report/2013-Etsy-Progress-Report.pdf?Ref=progress_report_download.
61. http://openinnovation.astrazeneca.com.
62. www.unilever.com/innovation/collaborating-with-unilever/challenging-and-wants.
63. www.bosch-pt.com/innovation/home.htm?Locale=en.
64. Manyika et al., “Global flows in a digital age.”
65. 2014 Silicon Valley Index, Joint Venture Silicon Valley and Silicon Valley Community Foundation, www.siliconvalleycf.org/sites/default/files/publications/2014-silicon-valley-index.pdf.
66. www.intelligentcommunity.org/index.php?Src=gendocs&ref=Smart21_2012&link=Smart21_2012.
67. Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, Sven Smit, James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, and Yaw Agyenm-Boateng, “Urban world: The shifting global business landscape,” McKinsey Global Institute, October 2013.
68. Emily Glazer, “P&G unit bids goodbye to Cincinnati, hello to Asia,” Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304070304577396053688081544.
69. Beth Brooks, “Unilever opens new global training centre in Asia for its ‘future leaders,’” The Grocer, July 8, 2013, www.thegrocer.co.uk/people/unilever-opens-global-training-centre-for-future-leaders/344935.article.
70. Singapore Business News, Singapore Economic Development Board, March 2013, www.edb.gov.sg/content/dam/edb/en/resources/pdfs/publications/SingaporeBusinessNews/march-2013/Singapore-Business-News-March-2013.pdf.
71. Rik Kirkland, “Leading in the 21st century: An interview with Ellen Kullman,” McKinsey & Company, September 2012.
72. Mike Doheny, Venu Nagali, and Florian Weig, “Agile Manufacturing for volatile times,” McKinsey & Company, 2012.
73. World Bank database; Isis Gaddis, Jacques Morisset, and Waly Wane, “A well-kept secret: Tanzania’s export performance,” World Bank, March 4, 2013, http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/a-well-kept-secret-tanzania-s-export-performance.
CHAPTER 5. THE NEXT THREE BILLION
1. “Clarks ends shoemaking in Somerset,” BBC.com, January 10, 2005, www.bbc.co.uk/somerset/content/articles/2005/01/10/clarks_feature.shtml.
2. Mark Palmer, “A great British success: Why the world loves Clarks and its shoes as it nears 200th anniversary,” This is Money, April 19, 2013, www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2311484/Clarks-A-family-firm-kept-polish.html.
3. Patrick Barkham, “How the Chinese fell in love with Clarks shoes,” Guardian (Manchester), March 8, 2011, www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2011/mar/09/chinese-love-clarks-shoes.
4. Ibid.
5. Olivia Goldhill, “Chinese tourists to spend £1bn in UK by 2017,” Telegraph (London), May 2, 2014, www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/10801908/Chinese-tourists-to-spend-1bn-in-UK-by-2017.html; “Insight and research: UK tourism dynamics,” Barclays, www.barclayscorporate.com/insight-and-research/research-and-reports/uk-tourism-dynamics.html.
6. “Chinese visitors surge to grab brands at Clarks Village outlet” (press release), Visit Somerset, January 15, 2014, www.visitsomerset.co.uk/blog/2014/1/15/chinese-visitors-surge-to-grab-brands-at-clarks-village-outlet-a95.
7. Barkham, “How the Chinese fell in love with Clarks shoes.”
8. Jo Tweedy, “Shoe travelled far? Clarks museum in Somerset proves unlikely hit with Chinese tourists,” Daily Mail (London), March 1, 2011, www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-1361696/Chinese-tourists-flock-Clarks-shoe-museum-Somerset.html#ixzz36nycck20.
9. “Poverty overview,” World Bank, October 8, 2014, www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview; Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, James Manyika, Charles Roxburgh, Sven Smit, and Fabian Schaer, Urban world: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, McKinsey Global Institute, June 2012.
10. “Poverty: Not always with us,” The Economist, May 30, 2013, www.economist.com/news/briefing/21578643-world-has-astonishing-chance-take-billion-people-out-extreme-poverty-2030-not; Dobbs et al., Urban world.
11. “Testimony on eradication of infectious diseases by Claire V. Broome, MD, MPH, acting director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US Department of Health and Human Services,” May 20, 1998, www.hhs.gov/asl/testify/t980520a.html; Annex Table 2, World Health Organization, The World Health Report 2004: Changing History (Geneva: World Health Report, 2004); www.who.int/whr/2004.
12. Dobbs et al., Urban world.
13. United Nations, “Introduction,” in The World at Six Billion (NY: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, October 12, 1999), www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbilpart1.pdf.
14. Sanjeev Sanyal, “Who are tomorrow’s consumers?,” Project Syndicate, August 9, 2012, www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/who-are-tomorrow-s-consumers-by-sanjeev-sanyal.
15. Yuval Atsmon, Ari Kertesz, and Ireena Vittal, “Is your emerging-market strategy local enough?,” McKinsey Quarterly, April 2011.
16. Jonathan Ablett, Aadarsh Baijal, Eric Beinhocker, Anupam Bose, Diana Farrell, Ulrich Gersch, Ezra Greenberg, Shishir Gupta, and Sumit Gupta, The “Bird of Gold”: The rise of India’s consumer market, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2007.
17. Dominic Barton, “The rise of the middle class in China and its impact on the Chinese and world economies,” chapter 7 in US-China Economic Relations in the Next Ten Years: Towards Deeper Engagement and Mutual Benefit (Hong Kong: China–United States Exchange Foundation, 2013), www.chinausfocus.com/2022/wp-content/uploads/Part+02-Chapter+07.pdf.
18. “China’s next chapter,” McKinsey Quarterly, no. 3, 2013.
19. Michael Yoshikami, “Why Tesla will win in China,” CNBC.com, May 1, 2014, www.cnbc.com/id/101634065#.
20. Peter Bisson, Rik Kirkland, and Elizabeth Stephenson, “The great rebalancing,” McKinsey & Company, June 2010,
21. Yuval Atsmon, Peter Child, and Udo Kopka, “The $30 trillion decathlon: How consumer companies can win in emerging markets,” McKinsey Perspectives on Retail and Consumer Goods, spring 2013.
22. Dobbs et al., Urban world.
23. Kaylene Hong, “China’s Internet population hit 618 million at the end of 2013, with 81% connecting via mobile,” The Next Web, January 16, 2014, http://thenextweb.com/asia/2014/01/16/chinas-Internet-population-numbered-618m-end-2013-81-connecting-via-mobile.
24. Yuval Atsmon, Peter Child, Richard Dobbs, and Laxman Narasimhan, “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon,” McKinsey Quarterly, August 2012.
25. Tushar Banerjee, “Five unusual ways in which Indians use mobile phones,” BBC.com, February 11, 2014, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-26028381.
26. Nilanjana Bhowmick, “37% of all the illiterate adults in the world are Indian,” Time, January 29, 2014, http://world.time.com/2014/01/29/indian-adult-illiteracy.
27. Agustino Fontevecchia, “India’s 243 million Internet users and the mobile e-commerce revolution,” Forbes.com, July 7, 2014, www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2014/07/07/indias-massive-e-commerce-opportunity-and-the-explosion-of-mobile.
28. www.techinasia.com/2013-china-surpasses-america-to-become-worlds-top-ecommerce-market/McKinsey Global Institute analysis.
29. Adrian Covert, “A decade of iTunes singles killed the music industry,” CNN Money, April 25, 2013, http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/25/technology/itunes-music-decline.
30. Nathalie Remy, Jennifer Schmidt, Charlotte Werner, and Maggie Lu, Unleashing fashion growth city by city, McKinsey & Company, October 2013.
31. Dominic Barton, Yougang Chen, and Amy Jim, “Mapping China’s middle class,” McKinsey Quarterly, June 2013, www.mckinsey.com/insights/consumer_and_retail/mapping_chinas_middle_class.
32. Atsmon et al., “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon.”
33. Sha Sha, Theodore Huang, and Erwin Gabardi, Upward mobility: The future of China’s premium car market, McKinsey & Company, March 2013.
34. Remy et al., Unleashing fashion growth city by city.
35. MGI Cityscope database. For more detail, you can explore the evolving urban world though the free Android and Apple iOS app Urban World.
36. Acha Leke, Reinaldo Fiorini, Richard Dobbs, Fraser Thompson, Aliyu Suleiman, and David Wright, Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa’s largest economy, McKinsey Global Institute, July 2014.
37. Patti Waldmeir, “China’s coffee industry is starting to stir,” Financial Times (London), October 22, 2012, www.ft.com/cms/s/0/992ec1e6-1901-11e2-af88-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3f28g6jcq.
38. Atsmon et al., “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon.”
39. “Master Kong is the most chosen brand in China,” Kantar Worldpanel, May 20, 2014, www.kantarworldpanel.com/global/News/Master-Kong-is-the-Most-Chosen-Brand-in-China.
40. Kai Bi, “Tingyi will maintain its market leadership with a diversified product portfolio,” analyst report, Morningstar, April 10, 2014, http://analysisreport.morningstar.com/stock/research?T=00322®ion=hkg&culture=en-US&productcode=MLE.
41. Ishan Chatterjee, Jöm Küpper, Christian Mariager, Patrick Moore, and Steve Reis, “The decade ahead: Trends that will shape the consumer goods industry,” McKinsey & Company, December 2010.
42. Bisson et al., “The great rebalancing.”
43. Atsmon et al., “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon.”
44. Chatterjee et al., “The decade ahead.”
45. Tom Glaser, “2013 investor day,” VF Corporation, June 11, 2013, www.vf17×17.com/pdf/2013%20VFC%20Investor%20Day-Glaser%20Transcript.pdf; Gary P. Pisano and Pamela Adams, VF Brands: Global Supply Chain Strategy, Harvard Business School case number 610–022, November 2009, www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=38127.
46. Atsmon et al., “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon.”
47. Alejandro Diaz, Max Magni, and Felix Poh, “From oxcart to Wal-Mart: Four keys to reaching emerging-market consumers,” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2012.
48. Atsmon et al., “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon.”
49. Ibid.
50. Ibid.
51. Ibid.
52. Martin Dewhurst, Jonathan Harris, and Suzanne Heywood, “Understanding your ‘globalization penalty,’” McKinsey Quarterly, July 2011.
53. Li Fangfang, “ABB sets sights on ‘designed in China,’” China Daily USA, July 19, 2012, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2012-07/19/content_15599833.htm.
54. Rick Newman, “Why US companies aren’t so American anymore,” U.S. News & World Report, June 30, 2011, http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/flowchart/2011/06/30/why-us-companies-arent-so-american-anymore; William Lazonick, “A transformative jobs plan: What’s good for IBM’s top executives is not good for the US,” Roosevelt Institute, May 2011, www.rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/transformative-jobs-plan-what-s-good-ibm-s-top-executives-not-good-us; Martin Dewhurst, “An interview with Michael Cannon-Brookes, vice president, business development, China and India, IBM Corporation,” in Perspectives on global organizations, McKinsey & Company, May 2012.
55. Rachel Layne, “GE moves 115-year-old X-ray unit’s base to China to tap growth,” Bloomberg News, July 25, 2011, www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-25/ge-healthcare-moves-x-ray-base-to-china-no-job-cuts-planned.html.
56. Hervé de Barbeyrac and Ruben Verhoeven, “Tilting the global balance: An interview with the CEO of Solvay,” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2013.
57. Choe Soon-kyoo, “How LG surpassed Samsung in India,” Korea Times, April 6, 2012, www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/bizfocus/2012/04/342_108490.html.
58. Atsmon et al., “Winning the $30 trillion decathlon.”
59. Ibid.