Notas

INTRODUCCIÓN: CÓMO MENTIR CON ESTADÍSTICAS

[1] Umberto Eco, Serendipities: Language and Lunacy , Londres, Hachette, 2015.

[2] Robert Matthews, «Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)», Teaching Statistics , 22(2), junio de 2000, pp. 36-38, <http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/14679639.00013>. Los artículos de investigación sobre ciencias sociales suelen afirmar que una relación es «estadísticamente significativa» si p = 0,05, lo cual significa que, si no había relación en absoluto, un patrón al menos tan claro como el observado tendría lugar una de cada veinte veces. El resultado en el artículo de las cigüeñas era de p = 0,008, lo que significa que si, de hecho, no había relación alguna entre las cigüeñas y los nacimientos, un patrón al menos tan claro como el observado tendría lugar una de cada ciento veinticinco veces. La tradición de aplicar esta prueba de significación estadística es rebatible, por razones que ahora no abordaremos.

[3] Conrad Keating, Smoking Kills , Oxford, Signal Books, 2009, p. xv.

[4] Science Museum, sir Austin Bradford Hill, <http://broughttolife.sciencemuseum.org.uk/broughttolife/people/austinhill>; Peter Armitage, «Obituary: Sir Austin Bradford Hill, 1897-1991», Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , Series A (Statistics in Society), 154(3), 1991, pp. 482-484, <www.jstor. org/stable/2983156>.

[5] Keating, Smoking Kills , pp. 85-90.

[6] Ibid ., p. 113.

[7] John P. A. Ioannidis, «A fiasco in the making?», Stat , 17 de marzo de 2020, <https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coro naviruspandemic-takes-hold-we-are- making-decisions-without-reliable-data/>.

[8] «Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning», Financial Times , 20 de marzo de 2020, <https://www.ft.com/content/2a70a02a644a-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68>.

[9] Demetri Sevastopulo y Hannah Kuchler, «Donald Trump’s chaotic coronavirus crisis», Financial Times , 27 de marzo de 2020, <https://www.ft. com/content/80aa0b58-7010-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f>.

[10] David Card, «Origins of the Unemployment Rate: The Lasting Legacy of Measurement without Theory», UC Berkeley y NBER, febrero de 2011, <http://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/origins-ofunemployment.pdf>.

[11] Naomi Oreskes y Eric Conway, Merchants of Doubt , Londres, Bloomsbury, 2010, cap. 1 [hay trad. cast.: Mercaderes de la duda , Madrid, Capitán Swing, 2012]; y Robert Proctor, Golden Holocaust , Berkeley y Los Ángeles, University of California Press, 2011.

[12] «Smoking And Health Proposal», memorándum interno de Brown y Williamson, 1969, <https://www.industrydocuments.ucsf.edu/tobacco/docs/#id=psdw0147>.

[13] Kari Edwards y Edward Smith, «A Disconfirmation Bias in the Evaluation of Arguments», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 71(1), 1996, pp. 5-24.

[14] Oreskes y Conway, Merchants of Doubt .

[15] Michael Lewis, « Has Anyone Seen the President?», Bloomberg , 9 de febrero de 2018, <https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-02-09/has-anyone-seen-the-president>.

[16] Brendan Nyhan, «Why Fears of Fake News Are Overhyped», Medium , 4 de febrero de 2019; y Gillian Tett, «The Kids Are Alright: The Truth About Fake News», Financial Times , 6 de febrero de 2019, <https://www.ft.com/content/d8f43574-29a1-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7?desktop=true&seg mentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8>.

[17] CQ Quarterly , <https://library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/document. php?id=cqal65-1259268>, y Alex Reinhart, «Huff and Puff», Significance , 11 (4), 2014.

[18] Andrew Gelman, «Statistics for Cigarette Sellers», Chance , 25(3), 2012; Reinhart, «Huff and Puff».

[19] How to Lie with Smoking Statistics se encuentra en la Biblioteca de Documentos de la industria tabaquera. Alex Reinhart dio forma al manuscrito y a los diferentes documentos que pertenecían proyecto: Reinhart, «The History of “How To Lie With Smoking Statistics”», <https://www.refsmmat. com/articles/smoking-statistics.html>.

[20] Suzana Herculano-Houzel, «What is so special about the human brain?», charla en TED.com de 2013: <https://www.ted.com/talks/suzana_herculano_houzel_what_is_so_special_about_the_human_brain/transcript?ga_source=embed&ga_medium=embed&ga_campaign=embedT>.

[21] Sobre el telescopio de Galileo: <https://thonyc.wordpress.com/2012/08/23/refusing-to-look/>; <https://www.wired.com/2008/10/how-the-telesco>/; y <https://thekindlyones.org/2010/10/13/refusing-to-look-through-galileostelescope/>.

PRIMERA REGLA: EXAMINA TUS SENTIMIENTOS

[1] También conocido como Star Wars: Episodio V ; guion de Leigh Brackett y Lawrence Kasdan.

[2] El caso de Van Meegeren se describe en The Master Forger , de John Godley, Londres, Home and Van Thal, 1951; y Van Meegeren: A Case History , Londres, Nelson, 1967; Noah Charney, The Art of Forgery: The Minds, Motives and Methods of Master Forgers , Londres, Phaidon, 2015; Frank Wynne, I Was Vermeer , Londres, Bloomsbury, 2007; en el programa de BBC TV Fake or Fortune (temporada 1, programa 3, 2011); una serie de entradas de blog de Errol Morris tituladas «Bamboozling Ourselves» que comenzaron en la página web de The New York Times , 20 de mayo de 2009; la película del museo Boijmans, Van Meegeren’s Fake Vermeers (2010, disponible en YouTube en <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnnkuOz08GQ>); y, sobre todo, Jonathan Lopez, The Man Who Made Vermeers , Londres, Houghton Mifflin, 2009.

[3] Hay varias versiones de cómo hizo su confesión Van Meegeren, y en una de ellas Van Meegeren se iguala más directamente al maestro holandés: «¡La pintura en manos de Göring no es, como se cree, un Vermeer de Delft, sino un Van Meegeren!». La cita del texto proviene del libro de Fran Wynne I was Vermeer .

[4] Ziva Kunda, «Motivated Inference: Self-Serving Generation and Evaluation of Causal Theories», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 53(4), 1987, pp. 636-647.

[5] Stephen Jay Gould, «The median isn’t the message», Discover , 6 de junio de 1985, pp. 40-42.

[6] Este experiment se describió en el podcast de NPR «The Hidden Brain»: You 2.0: The Ostrich Effect , 6 de agosto de 2018, <https://www.npr. org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=636133086>.

[7] Nachum Sicherman, George Loewenstein, Duane J. Seppi, Stephen P. Utkus, «Financial Attention», Review of Financial Studies , 29(4), 1 de abril de 2016, pp. 863-897, <https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv073>.

[8] «Viral post about someone’s uncle’s coronavirus advice is not all it’s cracked up to be», Full Fact , 5 de marzo de 2020, <https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-claims-symptoms-viral/>.

[9] Guy Mayraz, «Wishful Thinking», 25 de octubre de 2011, <http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1955644>.

[10] Linda Babcock y George Loewenstein, «Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases», Journal of Economic Perspectives , 11(1), 1997, pp. 109-126, <https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.11.1.109>.

[11] Un buen resumen se puede encontrar en la entrada de blog de Dan Kahan What is Motivated Reasoning? How Does It Work ?, <http://blogs. discovermagazine.com/intersection/2011/05/05/what-is-motivated-reaso ning-how-does-it-workdan-kahan-answers/#.WN5zJ_nyuUm>. Un estudio excelente es el de Ziva Kunda, «The case for motivated reasoning», Psychological Bulletin , 108(3), 1990, pp. 480-498, <http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/00332909.108.3.480>.

[12] S. C. Kalichman, L. Eaton, C. Cherry, «“There is no proof that HIV causes AIDS ”: AIDS denialism beliefs among people living with HIV /AIDS», Journal of Behavioral Medicine , 33(6), 2010, pp. 432-440, <https://doi. org/10.1007/s10865-010-9275-7>; y A. B. Hutchinson, E. B. Begley, P. Sullivan, H. A. Clark, B. C. Boyett, S. E. Kellerman, «Conspiracy beliefs and trust in information about HIV/AIDS among minority men who have sex with men», Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome , 45(5), 15 de agosto de 2007, pp. 603-6055.

[13] Tim Harford, «Why it’s too tempting to believe the Oxford study», Financial Times , 27 de marzo de 2020, <https://www.ft.com/content/14df8908-6f47-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f>.

[14] Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West y Maggie E. Toplak, «Myside Bias, Rational Thinking, and Intelligence», Current Directions in Psychological Science 22(4), agosto de 2013, pp. 259-264, <https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721413480174>.

[15] Charles S. Taber y Milton Lodge, «Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs», American Journal of Political Science , 50(3), julio de 2006, pp. 755-769, <http://www.jstor.org/stable/3694247>.

[16] Kevin Quealy, «The More Education Republicans Have, the Less They Tend to Believe in Climate Change», The New York Times , 14 de noviembre de 2017, <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/14/upshot/climate-changeby-education.html>.

[17] Caitlin Drummond y Baruch Fischhoff, «Individuals with greater science literacy and education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics», PNAS , 21 de agosto de 2017, <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/08/15/1704882114>.

[18] Charles Lord, L. Ross y M. R. Lepper, «Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 37(11), 1979, pp. 20982109.

[19] Nicholas Epley y Thomas Gilovich, «The Mechanics of Motivated Reasoning», Journal of Economic Perspectives , 30(3), 2016, pp. 133-140, <https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.30.3.133>.

[20] Ari LeVaux, «Climate change threatens Montana’s barley farmers —and possibly your beer», Food and Environment Research Network , 13 de diciembre de 2017, <https://thefern.org/2017/12/climate-change-threa tens-montanas-barley-farmers-possibly-beer/>.

[21] Correspondencia del autor con Kris De Meyer, 27 de octubre de 2018.

[22] Gordon Pennycook, Ziv Epstein, Mohsen Mosleh, Antonio A. Arechar, Dean Eckles y David G. Rand, «Understanding and Reducing the Spread of Misinformation Online», PsyArXiv , 13 de noviembre de 2019. <https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/3n9u8>; véase también Oliver Burkeman, «How to stop the spread of fake news? Pause for a moment», The Guardian , 7 de febrero de 2020, <https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2020/feb/07/how-to-stop-spread-of-fake-news-oliver-burkeman>.

[23] G. Pennycook y D. G. Rand, «Lazy, not biased: Susceptibility to partisan fake news is better explained by lack of reasoning than by motivated reasoning», Cognition , 2018, <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2018. 06.011>.

[24] Shane Frederick, «Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making», Journal of Economic Perspectives , 19(4), 2005, pp. 25-42, <https://doi.org/10.1257/089533005775196732>.

[25] Diane Wolf, Beyond Anne Frank: Hidden Children and Postwar Families in Holland , Berkeley, University of California Press, 2007, tabla 1, que cita a Raul Hilberg, The Destruction of the European Jews (1985).

SEGUNDA REGLA: SOPESA LA EXPERIENCIA PERSONAL

[1] Muhammad Yunus entrevistado por Steven Covey, <http://socialbu sinesspedia. com/wiki/details/248>.

[2] Transport for London, Travel In London: Report 11 , <http://content. tfl.gov.uk/travel-in-london-report-11.pdf>, figura 10.8, p. 202.

[3] Estas cifras las revelaron después de una petición de información, <https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/journey_demand_and_service_suppl>, y aquí están bien resumidas: <https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2016/08/05/london-tube-train-capacities/>.

[4] Transport for London, Travel In London: Report 4 , <http://content. tfl.gov.uk/travel-in-london-report-4.pdf>, p. 5.

[5] Entrevista del autor con Lauren Sager Weinstein y Dale Campbell de TfL, 9 de julio de 2019.

[6] Ipsos MORI, Perils of Perception 2017 , <https://www.ipsos.com/ipsosmori/en-uk/perils-perception-2017>.

[7] «“No link between MMR and autism”, major study finds», NHS News , martes, 5 de marzo de 2019, <https://www.nhs.uk/news/medication/no-linkbetween-mmr-and-autism-major-study-finds/>.

[8] «When do children usually show symptoms of autism?», National Institute of Child Health and Clinical Development, <https://www.nichd.nih. gov/health/topics/autism/conditioninfo/symptoms-appear>.

[9] David McRaney, «You Are Not So Smart Episode 62: Naïve Realism», <https://youarenotsosmart.com/2015/11/09/yanss-062-why-you-often-belie vepeople-who-see-the-world-differently-are-wrong/>; y Tom Gilovich y Lee Ross, The Wisest One in the Room , Nueva York, Free Press, 2016.

[10] Ipsos MORI, Perils of Perception 2017 , <https://www.ipsos.com/ipsosmori/en-uk/perils-perception-2017>.

[11] David Dranove, Daniel Kessler, Mark McClellan y Mark Satterthwaite, «Is More Information Better? The Effects of “Report Cards” on Health Care Providers», National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 8697 (2002), <http://www.nber.org/papers/w8697>.

[12] Charles Goodhart, «Problems of Monetary Management: The U.K. Experience», en Anthony S. Courakis (ed.), Inflation, Depression, and Economic Policy in the West , Londres, Mansell, 1981, pp. 111-146. El artículo original se presenta en una conferencia en 1975.

[13] Donald T. Campbell, «Assessing the impact of planned social change», Evaluation and Program Planning , 2(1), 1979; se publicó una version anterior en 1976 y ya existía el texto de una conferencia en 1974.

[14] Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee, Dean S. Karlan y Jonathan Zinman, «Six randomized evaluations of microcredit: Introduction and further steps», 2015; y Rachel Meager, «Understanding the average effect of microcredit», <https://vox dev.org/topic/methods-measurement/understanding-average-effect-microcredit>.

[15] Anna Rosling Rönnlund, «See how the rest of the world lives, organized by income», TED 2017, <anna_rosling_ronnlund_see_how_the_rest_of_the_ world_lives_organized_by_income>.

TERCERA REGLA: EVITA LA ENUMERACIÓN PREMATURA

[1] La doctora Lucy Smith fue entrevistada por mí y Richard Fenton Smith para el programa More or Less el 8 de junio de 2018, BBC Radio 4: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p069jd0p>. El relato se basa en la entrevista, en la correspondencia por correo y en una entrevista telefónica que le hice el 12 de agosto de 2019. Las entrevistas de la doctora Smith con personas que perdieron a su bebé entre las veinte y las veinticuatro semanas se pueden encontrar en <https://www.healthtalk.org/20-24>.

[2] Véase Merian F. MacDorman et al ., «International Comparisons of Infant Mortality and Related Factors: United States and Europe, 2010», National Vital Statistics Reports , 24 de septiembre de 2014.

[3] Denis Campbell, «Concern at rising infant mortality rate in England and Wales», The Guardian , 15 de marzo de 2018, <https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/mar/15/concern-at-rising-infant-mortality-rate-in-england-and-wales>.

[4] Peter Davis et al ., «Rising infant mortality rates in England and Wales — we need to understand gestation specific mortality», BMJ 361, 8 de mayo de 2018, <https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k1936>.

[5] BBC, More or Less , 8 de abril de 2020, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000h6cb>.

[6] Entrevista del autor con Rebecca Goldin, 12 de diciembre de 2017.

[7] Paul J. C. Adachi y Teena Willoughby, «The Effect of Video Game Competition and Violence on Aggressive Behavior: Which Characteristic Has the Greatest Influence?», Psychology of Violence , 1(4), 2011, pp. 259-274, <https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024908>.

[8] «Immigration post-Brexit», Leave Means Leave artículos de investigación, <http://www.leavemeansleave.eu/research/immigration-post-brexit-fairflexibleforward-thinking-immigration-policy/>.

[9] Jonathan Portes, «Who Are You Calling Low-Skilled?», UK in a Changing Europe , 12 de abril de 2017, <https://ukandeu.ac.uk/who-are-you-calling-low-skilled/>.

[10] Robert Wright, «Brexit visa changes to hit sectors in need of lowskilled labour», Financial Times , 18 de febrero de 2020, <https://www.ft.com/content/890e84ce-5268-11ea-90ad-25e377c0ee1f>.

[11] <https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/22/concern-over-rise-in-suicide-attempts-among-young-women>.

[12] NHS Digital, Mental Health of Children and Young People in England, 2017 , 22 de noviembre de 2018, <https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mental-health-of-children-and-young-people-in-england/2017/2017>.

[13] <https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/self-harm/>.

[14] Correspondencia de correo electrónico con la oficina de prensa de NatCen, 29 de noviembre de 2018.

[15] Datos de fuentes oficiales como la Oficina Nacional de Estadística: <https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsand marriages/deaths/bulletins/suicidesintheunitedkingdom/2017registrations# suicide-patterns-by-age>.

[16] <https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/20/oxfam-85-richest-people-half-of-the-world>.

[17] <https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/anatomy-of-a-killer-fact-the-worlds85-richest-people-own-as-much-as-poorest-3-5-billion/>; y de una entrevista con el señor Fuentes para la BBC: <https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine26613682>.

[18] Los datos provienen del Global Wealth Report, que Credit Suisse publica cada año. La versión de 2013 daba los datos para el hecho brutal de Oxfam y está disponible en línea: <https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=BCDB1364-A105-0560-1332EC9100FF5C83>.

[19] «Social protection for older persons: Policy trends and statistics 2017-2019», International Labour Office, Social Protection Department, Ginebra, 2018; disponible en <https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/--ed_protect/---soc_sec/documents/publication/wcms_645692.pdf>.

[20] Para el Reino Unido, el Institute for Fiscal Studies Review of Living Standards, Poverty and Inequality in the UK . Para las rentas más altas en el ámbito global, el World Inequality Report . Otra buena fuente es Our World In Data . En las notas siguientes se proporcionarán referencias más específicas.

CUARTA REGLA: TOMA DISTANCIA Y DISFRUTA DE LAS VISTAS

[1] Para más información, el episodio de More or Less del 8 de junio de 2018, presentado por mí e investigado por mis colegas Richard Fenton Smith y Richard Vadon: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p069jd0p>.

[2] Johan Galtung y Mari Holmboe Ruge, «The structure of foreign news: The presentation of the Congo, Cuba and Cyprus crises in four Norwegian newspapers», Journal of Peace Research , 2(1), 1965, pp. 64-90.

[3] Max Roser, «Stop Saying that 2016 Was the Worst Year», The Washington Post , 29 de diciembre de 2016, <https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/29/stop-saying-that-2016-was-the-worst-year/?utm_term=.bad894bad69a>; véase también Planet Money , «The Fifty Year Newspaper», diciembre de 2017, <https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=574662798>.

[4] C. P. Morice, J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner y P. D. Jones, «Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset», Journal of Geophysical Research , 117(D8), 2012, <https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187>, describe los datos de Met Office Hadley Centre. Hay gráficos y se pueden descargar en «Our World in Data», <https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-green house-gas-emissions>. En la década de 1960, las temperaturas globales solían estar un 0,1ºC por debajo de la media de 1961-1990. En el siglo XXI han estado un 0,6ºC por encima de esta media, y más recientemente, un 0,7ºC por encima. Por lo tanto, el aumento de las temperaturas en los últimos cincuenta años ha sido de 0,7-0,8 ºC.

[5] Max Roser, «The short history of global living conditions and why it matters that we know it», 2018, publicado en línea en OurWorldInData.org, consultado en <https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-globallivingconditions-in-5-charts>; para la mortalidad infantil, Roser cita datos de Gapminder y el Banco Mundial.

[6] Véase la figura E4 en el Executive Summary del World Inequality Report de 2018: <https://wir2018.wid.world/files/download/wir2018-sum maryenglish.pdf>.

[7] Una fuente excelente es el Institute for Fiscal Studies review of Living Standards, Poverty and Inequality del Reino Unido. He consultado la edición de 2018, la más reciente cuando escribí estas líneas: <https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/R145%20for%20web.pdf>.

[8] Un artículo que resume muy bien la desigualdad del mundo está en la página web Our World in Data, escrito por Joe Hasell, una autoridad en esta cuestión: <https://ourworldindata.org/income-inequality-since-1990>.

[9] Cálculos del autor, basados en Natsal-3, la tercera National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles: <http://timharford.com/2018/09/is-twitter-more-unequal-than-life-sex-or-happiness/>.

[10] Michael Blastland y Andrew Dilnot, The Tiger That Isn’t , Londres, Profile Books, 2008. [Hay trad. cast.: El tigre que no está , Madrid, Turner, 2009.]

[11] Andrew C. A. Elliott, Is That a Big Number ?, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2018.

[12] Tali Sharot, «The Optimism Bias», charla TED, 2012: <https://www. ted.com/talks/tali_sharot_the_optimism_bias/transcript#t-18026>.

[13] Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow , Nueva York, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2010. [Hay trad. cast.: Pensar rápido, pensar despacio , Barcelona, Debate, 2012.]

[14] Ross A. Miller y Karen Albert, «If It Leads, It Bleeds (and If It Bleeds, It Leads): Media Coverage and Fatalities in Militarized Interstate Disputes», Political Communication 2015, 32(1), pp. 61-82, <https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2014.880976>; Barbara Combs y Paul Slovic, «Newspaper Coverage of Causes of Death», Journalism Quarterly , 56(4), pp. 837-843, 849.

[15] <https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_ facts/>, 13.000 personas mueren cada día por enfermedades causadas por el tabaco, unas 40.000 al mes; en los ataques del 11 de septiembre murieron casi 3.000 personas.

[16] <https://www.ted.com/talks/the_ted_interview_steven_pinker_on_ why_our_pessimism_about_the_world_is_wrong/transcript?language=en>.

[17] Steven Pinker menciona en las notas finales de Enlightenment Now (Nueva York, Penguin, 2018) que esta correspondencia tuvo lugar en 1982.

[18] Citado en The Guardian , 12 de mayo de 2015, <https://www.theguar dian.com/society/2015/may/12/stroke-association-warns-of-alarming-riseinnumber-of-victims>; véase también More or Less , 17 de mayo de 2015, con el análisis de esta afirmación: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05tpz78>.

[19] Nota de prensa de Oxfam, 22 de septiembre de 2016, <http://oxfam apps.org/media/ppdwr>.

[20] Un estudio útil de varios gráficos relevantes se encuentra en Max Roser y Mohamed Nagdy, «Optimism & Pessimism», 2018, publicado en línea en OurWorldInData.org, consultado en <https://ourworldindata.org/opti mismpessimism>, sobre todo la sección I.1 con gráficos de Eurobarometer e Ipsos MORI.

[21] Martyn Lewis, «Not My Idea of Good News», Independent , 26 de abril de 1993, <https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/not-my-idea-of-good-news-at-theend-of-a-week-of-horrifying-events-martyn-lewis-bbc-presenterargues1457539.html>.

[22] Max Roser, <https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-globallivingconditions-in-5-charts>, datos del Banco Mundial y de F. Bourguignon y C. Morrisson, «Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992», American Economic Review , 92(4), 2002, pp. 727-748. En 1993 había 1.940 millones de personas que vivían en la pobreza extrema; en 2015, la cifra había caído hasta los 705 millones de personas. La tasa de mejora es de 153.600 personas al día, aunque, por descontado, no tenemos forma de medir la tasa diaria porque fluctúa.

[23] Samantha Vanderslott, Bernadeta Dadonaite y Max Roser, «Vaccination», 2020; publicado en línea en OurWorldInData.org; consultado en: <https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination>.

[24] Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Hans Rosling y Ola Rosling, Factfulness , Londres, Sceptre, 2018.

[25] Gillian Tett, «Silos and Silences», Banque de France Financial Stability Review , n.º 14, Derivatives — Financial innovation and stability, julio de 2010, <https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6612179.pdf>.

[26] Rolf Dobelli, «News is bad for you — and giving up reading it will make you happier», The Guardian , 12 de abril de 2013, <https://www.the guardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli>.

[27] Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes , Londres, Penguin Books, 2010.

[28] Bill Hanage, Mark Lipsitch, «How to Report on the COVID-19 Outbreak Responsibly», Scientific American , 23 de febrero 2020, <https://blogs. scientificamerican.com/observations/how-to-report-on-the-covid-19-outbreak-responsibly/>.

QUINTA REGLA: COMPRENDE LA HISTORIA DE FONDO

[1] Sheena Iyengar y Mark Lepper, «When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing?», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 79, 2000.

[2] Entrevista del autor con Benjamin Scheibehenne, octubre de 2009.

[3] B. Scheibehenne, R. Greifeneder y P. M. Todd, «Can There Ever Be Too Many Options? A Meta-Analytic Review of Choice Overload», Journal of Consumer Research , 37, 2010, pp. 409-425, <http://scheibehenne.de/ScheibehenneGreifenederTodd2010.pdf>.

[4] «Ten Kickstarter Products that Raised the Most Money», <https://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-kickstarter-products-that-raised-the-most money-2017-06-22-10883052>.

[5] La historia la explica Jordan Ellenberg en su libro How Not to Be Wrong (Nueva York, Penguin Press, 2014), y el extracto relevante se encuentra aquí: <https://medium.com/@penguinpress/an-excerpt-from-how-not-tobe-wrong-by-jordan-ellenberg-664e708cfc3d>.

[6] Un resumen técnico (con algunos comentarios sobre cómo se exageró) se encuentra en Bill Casselman, «The Legend of Abraham Wald», American Mathematical Society , <http://www.ams.org/publicoutreach/featurecolumn/fc-2016-06>.

[7] Un relato excelente de esta controversia se encuentra en Daniel Engber, «Daryl Bem Proved ESP Is Real Which Means Science Is Broken», Slate , 17 de mayo de 2017, <https://slate.com/health-and-science/2017/06/darylbem-proved-esp-isreal-showed-science-is-broken.html>.

[8] Chris French, «Precognition studies and the curse of the failed replications», The Guardian , 15 de marzo de 2012, <https://www.theguar dian.com/science/2012/mar/15/precognition-studies-curse-failed-replica tions>.

[9] Nosek charlaba en el podcast de Planet Money (episodio 677): <https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/03/07/591213302/episode-677-the-experiment-experiment>.

[10] Brian Nosek ha concedido varias entrevistas, entre ellas a You Are Not So Smart (episodio 100), <https://youarenotsosmart.com/2017/07/19/yanss-100-the-replication-crisis/>; Planet Money (episodio 677), <https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/03/07/591213302/episode-677-theex periment-experiment>; EconTalk (16 de noviembre de 2015), <http://www. econtalk.org/brian-nosek-on-the-reproducibility-project>/; The Hidden Brain (episodio 32), <https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript. php?storyId=477921050>; así como a BBC Analysis , «The Replication Crisis», 12 de noviembre de 2018, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00013p9>.

[11] Esta cifra de treinta y nueve se basa en la opinión subjetiva de los investigadores que replicaron el estudio. ¿Sus resultados respaldaban el estudio original o no? Es algo que depende de cada uno. Una medición alternativa es preguntarse cuántos estudios de réplica generaron los resultados que pasaron el obstáculo estándar (bastante complicado) de la significación estadística. Solo treinta y seis. Noventa y siete superaron el obstáculo. Véase «Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science» de Open Science Collaboration, publicado en Science , 28 de agosto de 2015, 349(6251), <https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716>.

[12] Breve vídeo en YouTube aquí: <https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=n1SJ-Tn3bcQ>.

[13] Planet Money (episodio 677): <https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/03/07/591213302/episode-677-the-experiment-experiment>.

[14] F. J. Anscombe, «Fixed-Sample-Size Analysis of Sequential Observations», Biometrics , 10(1), 1954, pp. 89-100, <www.jstor.org/stable/3001665>; y Andrew Gelman, Statistical Inference, Modelling and Social Science , blog post 2 de mayo de 2018, <https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2018/05/02/continuously-increased-number-animals-statistical-significance-reachedsupport-conclusions-think-not-bad-actually/>.

[15] David J. Hand, Dark Data , Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2020.

[16] Andrew Gelman y Eric Loken, «The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and the research hypothesis was posited ahead of time», 14 de noviembre de 2013, <http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/p_hacking.pdf>.

[17] J. P. Simmons, L. D. Nelson y U. Simonsohn, «False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant», Psychological Science , 22(11), 2011, pp. 1359-1366, <https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611417632>.

[18] Kai Kupferschmidt, «More and more scientists are preregistering their studies. Should you?», Science , 21 de septiembre de 2018.

[19] Anjana Ahuja, «Scientists strike back against statistical tyranny», Financial Times , 27 de marzo de 2019, <https://www.ft.com/content/36f9374c-5075-11e9-8f44-fe4a86c48b33>.

[20] Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics , Nueva York, W. W. Norton, 1993, p. 40. [Hay trad. cast.: Cómo mentir con estadísticas , Barcelona, Crítica, 2012.]

[21] John Ioannidis, «Why Most Published Research Findings Are False», PLoS Medicine , 2(8), agosto de 2005, e124, <https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pmed.0020124>.

[22] R. F. Baumeister, E. Bratslavsky, M. Muraven y D. M. Tice, «Ego depletion: Is the active self a limited resource?», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 74(5), 1998, pp. 1252-1265, <http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/00223514.74.5.1252>; y «The End of Ego Depletion Theory?», Neuroskeptic blog , 31 de julio de 2016, <http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/neuroskeptic/2016/07/31/end-of-ego-depletion/#.XGGyflz7SUk>.

[23] Amy Cuddy, «Your Body Language May Shape Who You Are», charla TED, 2012, <https://www.ted.com/talks/amy_cuddy_your_body_langua ge_shapes_who_you_are/transcript?language=en>.

[24] Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow , pp. 53-57. [Pensar rápido, pensar despaci o, pp. 78-83.]

[25] Ed Yong, «Nobel laureate challenges psychologists to clean up their act», Nature New s, 3 de octubre de 2012, <https://www.nature.com/news/nobel-laureate-challenges-psychologists-to-clean-up-their-act-1.11535>.

[26] Ben Goldacre, «Backwards Step on Looking into the Future», The Guardian , 23 de abril de 2011, <https://www.theguardian.com/commentis free/2011/apr/23/ben-goldacre-bad-science>.

[27] Robin Wrigglesworth, «How a herd of cows trampled on human stockpickers», Financial Times , 21 de enero de 2020, <https://www.ft.com/content/563d61dc-3b70-11ea-a01a-bae547046735?>.

[28] Burton Malkiel, «Returns from Investing in Equity Funds», trabajo de investigación, Princeton University, 1994.

[29] Eric Balchunas, «How the Vanguard Effect adds up to $1 trillion», Bloomberg.com, 30 de agosto de 2016, <https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-08-30/how-much-has-vanguard-saved-investors-try-1-trillion>.

[30] Para un resumen accesible, véase Ben Goldacre, «What doctors don’t know about the drugs they prescribe», charla TED, 2012, <https://www. ted.com/talks/ben_goldacre_what_doctors_don_t_know_about_the_drugs_ they_prescribe/footnotes?language=en>.

[31] Erick Turner et al ., «Selective Publication of Antidepressant Trials and Its Influence on Apparent Efficacy», New England Journal of Medicine , 17 de enero de 2008, <https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM sa065779>.

[32] Ben Goldacre, «Transparency, Beyond Publication Bias», charla en la International Journal of Epidemiology Conference, 2016; disponible en <https://www.badscience.net/2016/10/transparency-beyond-publicationbiasa-video-of-my-super-speedy-talk-at-ije/>.

[33] Ben Goldacre, Henry Drysdale, Aaron Dale, Ioan Milosevic, Eirion Slade, Philip Hartley, Cicely Marston, Anna Powell-Smith, Carl Heneghan y Kamal R. Mahtani, «COMPare: a prospective cohort study correcting and monitoring 58 misreported trials in real time», Trials , 20(118), 2019, <https://doi.org/10.1186/s13063-019-3173-2>.

[34] Goldacre, «Transparency, Beyond Publication Bias», <https://www. badscience.net/2016/10/transparency-beyond-publication-bias-a-video-ofmysuper-speedy-talk-at-ije/>.

[35] Amy Sippett, «Does the Backfire Effect exist?», Full Fact , 20 de marzo de 2019, <https://fullfact.org/blog/2019/mar/does-backfire-effectexist/>; tuit de Brendan Nyhan, 20 de marzo de 2019, <https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/1108377656414879744>.

[36] Entrevista del autor con Richard Thaler, 17 de julio de 2019.

[37] BBC, Analysis , «The Replication Crisis», 12 de noviembre de 2018, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00013p9>.

[38] Antonio Granado, «Slaves to journals, serfs to the web: The use of the internet in newsgathering among European science journalists», Journalism , 12(7), 2011, pp. 794-813.

[39] A. L. Cochrane, «Sickness in Salonica: My first, worst, and most successful clinical trial», British Medical Journal (Clin Res Ed) , 289(6460), 1984, pp. 1726-1727, <https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.289.6460.1726>.

[40] «A Brief History of Cochrane», <https://community.cochrane.org/handbook-sri/chapter-1-introduction/11-cochrane/112-brief-historycochrane>.

[41] <https://www.webmd.com/urinary-incontinence-oab/news/20180522/yoga-may-be-right-move-versus-urinary-incontinence#1>.

[42] <https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2626209/Could-yogacureINCONTINENCE-Exercise-strengthens-pelvic-floor-muscles-reducin gleakage.html>.

[43] <https://www.hcd.com/incontinence/yoga-incontinence/>.

[44] <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4310548/>.

[45] L. S. Wieland, N. Shrestha, Z. S. Lassi, S. Panda, D. Chiaramonte y N. Skoetz, «Yoga for treating urinary incontinence in women», Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2019 , 2, art. n.º CD012668, <https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD012668.pub2>.

SEXTA REGLA: PREGUNTA QUÉ FALTA

[1] R. Bond y P. B. Smith, «Culture and conformity: A meta-analysis of studies using Asch’s (1952b, 1956) line judgment task», Psychological Bulletin , 119(1), 1996, pp. 111-137, <http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.119.1.111>.

[2] Tim Harford, «The Truth About Our Norm-Core», Financial Times , 12 de junio de 2015, <http://timharford.com/2015/06/the-truth-about-our-norm-core/>.

[3] Bond y Smith, «Culture and conformity»; y Natalie Frier, Colin Fisher, Cindy Firman y Zachary Bigaouette, «The Effects of Group Conformity Based on Sex», 2016, Celebrating Scholarship & Creativity Day, Paper 83, <http://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/elce_cscday/83>.

[4] Tim Harford, «Trump, Brexit and How Politics Loses the Capacity to Shock», Financial Times , 16 de noviembre de 2018, <https://www.ft.com/content/b730c95c-e82e-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3>.

[5] Caroline Criado Perez, Invisible Women , Londres, Chatto and Windus, 2019 [hay trad. cast.: La mujer invisible , Barcelona, Seix Barral, 2020]; la entrevista se retransmitió en BBC Radio 4 el 17 de mayo de 2019 y está disponible en la página web de More or Less : <https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00050rd>.

[6] Peter Hofland, «Reversal of Fortune», Onco’Zine , 30 de noviembre de 2013, <https://oncozine.com/reversal-of-fortune-how-a-vilified-drug-became-alife-saving-agent-in-the-war-against-cancer/>.

[7] R. Dmitrovic, A. R. Kunselman y R. S. Legro, «Sildenafil citrate in the treatment of pain in primary dysmenorrhea: a randomized controlled trial», Human Reproduction , 28(11), noviembre de 2013, pp. 2958-2965, <https://doi.org/10.1093/humrep/det324>.

[8] BBC, More or Less , 31 de marzo de 2020, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000h7st>.

[9] Mayra Buvinic y Ruth Levine, «Closing the gender data gap», Significance , 8 de abril de 2016, <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00899. x>; y Charlotte McDonald, «Is There a Sexist Data Crisis?», BBC News, 18 de mayo de 2016, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36314061>.

[10] Shelly Lundberg, Robert Pollak y Terence J. Wales, «Do Husbands and Wives Pool Their Resources? Evidence from the United Kingdom Child Benefit», 32(3), 1997, pp. 463-480, <https://econpapers.repec.org/article/uwpjhriss/v_3a32_3ay_3a1997_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a463-480.htm>.

[11] Buvinic y Levine, «Closing the gender data gap», <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00899.x>.

[12] Suzannah Brecknell, «Interview: Full Fact’s Will Moy on lobbyist “nonsense”, official corrections and why we know more about golf than crime stats», Civil Service World , 5 de mayo de 2016, <https://www.civilservice world.com/articles/interview/interview-fullfact%E2%80%99s-will-moy-lobbyist-%E2%80%9Cnonsense%E2%80%9Dofficial-corrections-and-why>.

[13] Maurice C. Bryson, «The Literary Digest Poll: Making of a Statistical Myth», American Statistician , 30(4), 1976, pp. 184-185, <https://doi.org/10. 1080/00031305.1976.10479173>; y Peverill Squire, «Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed», Public Opinion Quarterly , 52(1), 1988, pp. 125-133, <www. jstor.org/stable/2749114>.

[14] P. Whiteley, «Why Did the Polls Get It Wrong in the 2015 General Election? Evaluating the Inquiry into Pre-Election Polls», Political Quarterly , 87, 2016, pp. 437-442, <https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12274>.

[15] John Curtice, «Revealed: Why the Polls Got It So Wrong in the British General Election», The Conversation , 14 de enero de 2016, <https://theconversation.com/revealed-why-the-polls-got-it-so-wrong-in-thebritish-general-election-53138>.

[16] Nate Cohn, «A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump», The New York Times , 31 de mayo de 2017, <https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/upshot/a-2016-review-why-key-state-polls-werewrong-about-trump.html>; y Andrew Mercer, Claudia Deane y Kyley McGeeney, «Why 2016 election polls missed their mark», Pew Research Fact Tank blog, 9 de noviembre de 2015, <http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missedtheir-mark/>.

[17] <https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/popu lationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/2011censusstatisticsforenglandandwalesmarch2011qmi>.

[18] Entrevista del autor con Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, marzo de 2014.

[19] Pew Research Center Social Media Factsheet, investigación llevada a cabo en enero de 2018, <https://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheet/social-media/>.

[20] Kate Crawford, «The Hidden Biases in Big Data», Harvard Business Review , 1 de abril de 2013, <https://hbr.org/2013/04/the-hidden-biases-in-big-data>.

[21] Leon Kelion, «Coronavirus: Covid-19 detecting apps face teething problems», BBC News, 8 de abril de 2020, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52215290>.

[22] Kate Crawford, «Artificial Intelligence’s White Guy Problem», The New York Times , 25 de junio de 2016, <https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/opinion/sunday/artificial-intelligences-white-guy-problem.html>.

SÉPTIMA REGLA: EXIGE TRANSPARENCIA CUANDO EL ORDENADOR DICE «NO»

[1] Jeremy Ginsberg, Matthew H. Mohebbi, Rajan S. Patel, Lynnette Brammer, Mark S. Smolinski, Larry Brilliant, «Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data», Nature , 457 (7232), 19 de febrero de 2009, pp. 1012-1014, <https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07634>.

[2] Partes de este capítulo están basadas en mi artículo del Financial Times «Big Data: Are We Making a Big Mistake?» (28 de marzo de 2014, <https://www.ft.com/content/21a6e7d8-b479-11e3-a09a-00144feabdc0>). Entrevisté a David Hand, Kaiser Fung, Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, David Spiegelhalter y Patrick Wolfe a principios de 2014 para documentarme.

[3] David Lazer y Ryan Kennedy, «What We Can Learn from the Epic Failure of Google Flu Trends», Wired , <https://www.wired.com/2015/10/can-learn-epic-failure-google-flu-trends/>; y Declan Butler, «WhatGoogle Flu Got Wrong», Nature , <https://www.nature.com/news/when-google-got-fluwrong-1.12413>.

[4] <https://www.google.org/flutrends/about/>.

[5] D. Lazer, R. Kennedy, G. King y A. Vespignani, «The Parable of Google Flu: Traps in Big Data Analysis», Science 343(6176), marzo de 2014, pp. 1203-1205.

[6] S. Cook, C. Conrad, A. L. Fowlkes, M. H. Mohebbi, «Assessing Google Flu Trends Performance in the United States during the 2009 Influenza Virus A (H1N1) Pandemic», PLoS ONE 6(8), 2011, e23610, <https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pone.0023610>.

[7] Janelle Shane, You Look Like a Thing and I Love You , Nueva York, Little, Brown, 2019.

[8] Para una información más exhaustiva, véase la página web de The Observer/The Guardian : <https://www.theguardian.com/news/series/cambridge-analytica-files>.

[9] Charles Duhigg, «How Companies Learn Your Secrets», The New York Times , 19 de febrero de 2012, <https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html>.

[10] Hannah Fry, Hello World: Being Human in the Age of Computers , Londres, W. W. Norton, 2018.

[11] Cathy O’Neil, Weapons of Math Destruction , Londres, Allen Lane, 2016. [Hay trad. cast.: Armas de destrucción matemática , Barcelona, Capitán Swing, 2017.]

[12] Episodio 268 de Freakonomics : Bad Medicine Pt 1, 16 de agosto de 2017, <http://freakonomics.com/podcast/bad-medicine-part-1-storyrebroadcast/>.

[13] P. A. Mackowiak, S. S. Wasserman, M. M. Levine, «A Critical Appraisal of 98.6 °F, the Upper Limit of the Normal Body Temperature, and Other Legacies of Carl Reinhold August Wunderlich», JAMA , 268(12), 1992, pp. 1578-1580, <https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1992.03490120092034>.

[14] Jeffrey Dastin, «Amazon scraps secret AI recruiting tool that showed bias against women», Reuters, 10 de octubre de 2018, <https://www.reuters. com/article/us-amazon-com-jobs-automation-insight/amazon-scraps-secretairecruiting-tool-that-showed-bias-against-women-idUSKCN1MK08G>.

[15] Gerd Gigerenzer y Stephanie Kurzenhaeuser, «Fast and frugal heuristics in medical decision making», Science and Medicine in Dialogue: Thinking through particulars and universals , 2005, pp. 3-15.

[16] Paul Meehl, Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction , Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, 1954.

[17] Fry, Hello World .

[18] Mandeep K. Dhami y Peter Ayton, «Bailing and jailing the fast and frugal way», Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , 14(2), 2001, <https://doi. org/10.1002/bdm.371>.

[19] Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, «Human Decisions and Machine Predictions», Quarterly Journal of Economics , 133(1), febrero de 2018, pp. 237-293, <https://doi. org/10.1093/qje/qjx032>; véase también Cass R. Sunstein, «Algorithms, Correcting Biases», trabajo de investigación, 12 de diciembre de 2018.

[20] David Jackson y Gary Marx, «Data mining program designed to predict child abuse proves unreliable, DCFS says», Chicago Tribune , 6 de diciembre de 2017; y Dan Hurley, «Can an Algorithm Tell When Kids Are in Danger?», The New York Times Magazine , 2 de enero de 2018, <https://www. nytimes.com/2018/01/02/magazine/can-an-algorithm-tell-when-kids-areindanger.html>.

[21] Hurley, «Can an Algorithm Tell When Kids Are in Danger?».

[22] Andrew Gelman, «Flaws in stupid horrible algorithm revealed because it made numerical predictions», Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science blog, 3 de julio de 2018, <https://statmodeling.stat.colum bia.edu/2018/07/03/flaws-stupid-horrible-algorithm-revealed-made-numeri cal-predictions/>.

[23] Sabine Hossenfelder, «Blaise Pascal, Florin Périer, and the Puy de Dôme experiment», <http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2007/11/blaisepascalflorin-p-and-puy-de-d.html>; y David Wootton, The Invention of Science: A New History of the Scientific Revolution , Londres, Allen Lane, 2015, cap. 8. [Hay trad. cast.: La invención de la ciencia , Barcelona, Crítica, 2017.]

[24] Véase, por ejemplo, Louis Trenchard More, «Boyle as Alchemist», Journal of the History of Ideas , 2(1), enero de 1941, pp. 61-76; y «The Strange, Secret History of Isaac Newton’s Papers», coloquio con Sarah Dry, <https://www.wired.com/2014/05/newton-papers-q-and-a/>.

[25] Wootton, The Invention of Science , p. 340.

[26] James Burke, Connections , Boston, Little, Brown, 1978, p. 74.

[27] Wootton, The Invention of Science , p. 357.

[28] <https://www.propublica.org/article/how-we-analyzed-the-compasrecidivism-algorithm>.

[29] Sam Corbett-Davies, Emma Pierson, Avi Feller, Sharad Goel y Aziz Huq, «Algorithmic decision making and the cost of fairness», arXiv:1701.08230; y Sam Corbett-Davies, Emma Pierson, Avi Feller y Sharad Goel, «A computer program used for bail and sentencing decisions was labeled biased against blacks. It’s actually not that clear», The Washington Post , 17 de octubre de 2016, <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/10/17/canan-algorithm-be-racist-our-analysis-is-more-cautious-than-propu blicas/>.

[30] Ed Yong, «A Popular Algorithm Is No Better at Predicting Crimes than Random People», The Atlantic , 17 de enero de 2018, <https://www. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/01/equivant-compas-algorithm/550646/>.

[31] Ibid .

[32] Julia Dressel y Hany Farid, «The Accuracy, Fairness and Limits of Predicting Recidivism», Science Advances 2018 , <http://advances.sciencemag. org/content/4/1/eaao5580>.

[33] Las conferencias Reith de Onora O’Neill sobre la confianza (<http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/reith2002/>) y su charla TED (<https://www.ted.com/speakers/onora_o_neill>) merecen escucharse. Las cuestiones sobre la apertura inteligente se pueden explorar a fondo en el informe de la Royal Society, «Science as an Open Enterprise», 2012, del que O’Neil fue autora. En su libro The Art of Statistics (Londres, Penguin, 2019), David Spiegelhalter demuestra que los principios de O’Neill se pueden aplicar para evaluar los algoritmos.

[34] Entrevista a Cathy O’Neil, 29 de agosto de 2019.

[35] Jack Nicas, «How YouTube Drives Viewers to the Internet’s Darkest Corners», The Wall Street Journal , 7 de febrero de 2018, <https://www.wsj. com/articles/how-youtube-drives-viewers-to-the-internets-darkest-cor ners1518020478>; y Zeynep Tufekci, «YouTube, the Great Radicalizer», The New York Times , 10 de marzo de 2018, <https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/10/opinion/sunday/youtube-politics-radical.html>. Pero véase para comparar Mark Ledwich y Anna Zaitsev, «Algorithmic Extremism: Examining YouTube’s Rabbit Hole of Radicalization», <https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11211>.

[36] Ryan Singal, «Netflix spilled your Brokeback Mountain secret, Lawsuit Claims», Wired , 17 de diciembre de 2009, <https://www.wired. com/2009/12/netflix-privacy-lawsuit/>; y Blake Hallinan y Ted Striphas, «Recommended for you: the Netflix Prize and the production of algorithmic culture», New Media and Society , 2016, <https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1461444814538646>.

OCTAVA REGLA: NO DES POR SENTADA LA BASE ESTADÍSTICA

[1] Se trata de una traducción de la entrevista en una televisión danesa que se puede ver aquí: <https://www.thelocal.se/20150905/hans-rosling-you-canttrust-the-media>.

[2] Laura Smith, «In 1974, a stripper known as the “Tidal Basin Bombshell” took down the most powerful man in Washington», Timeline , 18 de septiembre de 2017, <https://timeline.com/wilbur-mills-tidal-basin-3c29a8b47ad1>; Stephen Green y Margot Hornblower, «Mills Admits Being Present During Tidal Basin Scuffle», The Washington Post , 11 de octubre de 1974.

[3] «The Stripper and the Congressman: Fanne Foxe’s Story», The Rialto Report Podcast (episodio 82), <https://www.therialtoreport.com/2018/07/15/fanne-foxe/>.

[4] Alice M. Rivlin, «The 40th Anniversary of the Congressional Budget Office», Brookings: On the Record , 2 de marzo de 2015, <https://www.broo kings.edu/on-the-record/40th-anniversary-of-the-congressional-budget-office/>.

[5] Philip Joyce, «The Congressional Budget Office at Middle Age», Hutchins Center at Brookings , Working Paper #9, 17 de febrero de 2015.

[6] Citado en Nancy D. Kates, Starting from Scratch: Alice Rivlin and the Congressional Budget Office , Cambridge, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 1989.

[7] Elaine Povich, «Alice Rivlin, budget maestro who “helped save Washington” in fiscal crisis, dies at 88», The Washington Post , 14 de mayo de 2019, <https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/alice-rivlin-budget-maestro-who-helped-save-washington-in-fiscal-crisisdies-at-88/2019/05/14/c141c996-0ff9-11e7-ab07-07d9f521f6b5_story.html>.

[8] Andrew Prokop, «The Congressional Budget Office, explained», Vox , 26 de junio de 2017, <https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017 /3/13/14860856/congressional-budget-office-cbo-explained>.

[9] John Frendreis y Raymond Tatalovich, «Accuracy and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasting by the Administration, the CBO, and the Federal Reserve Board», Polity 32(4), 2000, pp. 623-632, consultado el 17 de enero de 2020, <https://doi.org/10.2307/3235295>; Holly Battelle, CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record , Washington DC, Congressional Budget Office, 2010; Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, «Hindsight is 2020: A look back at CBO’s economic forecasting», enero de 2013, <https://www.crfb.org/blogs/hindsight-2020-look-back-cbos-economic-forecasting>.

[10] Forecast Evaluation Report 2019 , Office for Budget Responsibility, diciembre de 2019, <https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Forecast_evaluation_ report_December_2019-1.pdf>.

[11] Malcolm Bull, «Can the Poor Think?», London Review of Books , 41(13), 4 de julio de 2019.

[12] Bourree Lam, «After a Good Jobs Report, Trump Now Believes Economic Data», The Atlantic , 10 de marzo de 2017, <https://www.theatlan tic.com/business/archive/2017/03/trump-spicer-jobs-report/519273/>.

[13] Esther King, «Germany records lowest crime rate since 1992», Politico , 8 de mayo de 2017, <https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-crime-rate-lowest-since-1992/>.

[14] Para un análisis de los tuits de Trump, véase Matthew Yglesias, «Trump just tweeted that “crime in Germany is way up.” It’s actually at its lowest level since 1992», Vox , 18 de junio de 2018; y Christopher F. Schuetze y Michael Wolgelenter, «Fact Check: Trump’s False and Misleading Claims about Germany’s Crime and Immigration», The New York Times , 18 de junio de 2018.

[15] Diane Coyle, GDP: A Brief But Affectionate History , Oxford, Princeton University Press, 2014, pp. 3-4.

[16] «Report on Greek government deficit and debt statistics», Comisión Europea, 8 de enero de 2010.

[17] Beat Balzli, «Greek Debt Crisis: How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt», Der Spiegel , 8 de febrero de 2010, <https://www. spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-debt-crisis-how-goldman-sachs-helped-greeceto-mask-its-true-debt-a-676634.html>.

[18] El International Statistical Institute hace un relato cronológico, actualizado la última vez por G. O’Hanlon y H. Snorrason, julio de 2018: <https://isi-web.org/images/news/2018-07_Court-proceedings-against Andreas-Georgiou.pdf>.

[19] «Commendation of Andreas Georgiou», Press Release: International Statistical Association, 18 de septiembre de 2018, <https://www.isi-web.org/images/2018/Press%20release%20Commendation%20for%20Andreas%20 Georgiou%20Aug%202018.pdf>.

[20] R. Langkjær-Bain,«Trials of a statistician», Significance , 14, 2017, pp. 14-19, <https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01052.x>; «An Augean Stable», The Economist , 13 de febrero de 2016, <https://www.economist.com/theamericas/2016/02/13/an-augean-stable>; «The Price of Cooking the Books», The Economist , 25 de febrero de 2012, <https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2012/02/25/the-price-of-cooking-the-books>.

[21] Langkjær-Bain, «Trials of a statistician».

[22] Entrevista del autor con Denise Lievesley, 2 de julio de 2018.

[23] «Tanzania law punishing critics of statistics “deeply concerning”: WorldBank», Reuters, 3 de octubre de 2018, <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tanzania-worldbank/tanzania-law-punishing-critics-of-statistics-deeplyconcerning-world-bank-idUSKCN1MD17P>.

[24] Amy Kamzin, «Dodgy data makes it hard to judge Modi’s job promises», Financial Times , 8 de octubre de 2018, <https://www.ft.com/content/1a008ebe-cad4-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab>.

[25] Steven Chase y Tavia Grant, «Statistics Canada chief falls on sword over census», The Globe and Mail , 21 de julio de 2010, <https://www.theglo beandmail.com/news/politics/statistics-canada-chief-falls-on-sword-over-census/article1320915/>.

[26] Langkjær-Bain, «Trials of a statistician».

[27] Nicole Acevedo, «Puerto Rico faces lawsuits over hurricane death count data», NBC News, 1 de junio de 2018; y Joshua Barajas, «Hurricane Maria’s official death toll is 46 times higher than it was almost a year ago. Here’s why», PBS Newshour, 30 de agosto de 2018, <https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/hurricane-marias-official-death-toll-is-46-times-higher-than-itwas-almost-a-year-ago- heres-why>.

[28] «2011 Census Benefits Evaluation Report», <https://www.ons. gov.uk/census/2011census/2011censusbenefits/2011censusbenefitse valuationreport#unquantified-benefits>; Ian Cope, «The Value of Census Statistics», <https://www.ukdataservice.ac.uk/media/455474/cope. pdf>.

[29] Carl Bakker, Valuing the Census , 2014, <https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Research/Valuing-the-Census/valuing-the-census.pdf>.

[30] Mónica I. Feliú-Mójer, «Why Is Puerto Rico Dismantling Its Institute of Statistics?», Scientific American: Voices , 1 de febrero de 2018.

[31] <https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54965>.

[32] Ellen Hughes-Cromwick y Julia Coronado, «The Value of US Government Data to US Business Decisions», Journal of Economic Perspectives , 33(1), 2019, pp. 131-146, <https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.1.131>.

[33] Milton y Rose Friedman, Two Lucky People (1998), citado por Neil Monnery, «Hong Kong’s postwar transformation shows how fewer data can sometimes boost growth», <https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2017/06/30/hong-kongs-postwar-transformation-showshow-fewer-data-can-sometimesboost-growth/>.

[34] James C. Scott, Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed , New Haven, Yale University Press, 1998.

[35] Perry Link, «China: From Famine to Oslo», New York Review of Books , 13 de enero de 2011.

[36] Para analizar el balance de muertes en la época de Stalin, véase Timothy Snyder, «Hitler vs. Stalin: Who Killed More?», New York Review of Books , 10 de marzo de 2011 (un artículo más inteligente de lo que denota el título). Para saber más sobre el censo de 1937, véase Daniel Sandford, «In Moscow, history is everywhere», BBC News, 2 de noviembre de 2012; y Catherine Merridale, «The 1937 Census and the Limits of Stalinist Rule», Historical Journal , 39(1), 1996, y «Called to Account», The Economist , 3 de septiembre de 2016, <https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/09/03/called-to-account>.

[37] Merridale, «The 1937 Census and the Limits of Stalinist Rule».

[38] Adam Tooze, Statistics and the German State , 1900-1945, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2001, p. 257.

[39] Entrevista del autor con Denise Lievesley, 11 de marzo de 2019.

[40] Hetan Shah, «How to save statistics from the threat of populism», Financial Times , 21 de octubre de 2018, <https://www.ft.com/content/ca491f18-d383-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4>.

[41] Nicholas Eberstadt, Ryan Nunn, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Michael R. Strain, «“In Order That They Might Rest Their Arguments on Facts”: The Vital Role of Government-Collected Data», AEI/Hamilton Project report, marzo de 2017.

[42] Para saber más de Rayner Review, véase G. Hoinville y T. M. F. Smith, «The Rayner Review of Government Statistical Services», Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , Series A (General) 145(2), 1982, pp. 195-207, <https://doi.org/10.2307/2981534>; y John Kay, «A Better Way to Restore Faith in Official Statistics», 25 de julio de 2006, <https://www.johnkay. com/2006/07/25/a-better-way-to-restore-faith-in-official-statistics/>.

[43] Hughes-Cromwick y Coronado, «The Value of US Government Data to US Business Decisions», <https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.1.131>.

[44] Jackie Mansky, «W.E.B. Du Bois’ Visionary Infographics Come Together for the First Time in Full Color», Smithsonian Magazine , 15 de noviembre de 2018, <https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/first-time-toge ther-andcolor-book-displays-web-du-bois-visionary-infographics-1809 70826/>; y Mona Chalabi, «WEB Du Bois: retracing his attempt to challenge racism with data», The Guardian , 14 de febrero de 2017, <https://www.the guardian.com/world/2017/feb/14/web-du-bois-racism-data-paris-african-americans-jobs>.

[45] Eric J. Evans, Thatcher and Thatcherism , Londres, Psychology Press, 2004, p. 30.

[46] Ian Simpson, Public Confidence in Official Statistics — 2016 , Londres: NatCEN social research, 2017, <https://natcen.ac.uk/media/1361381/natcen_public-confidence-in-official-statistics_web_v2.pdf>.

[47] The Cabinet Office, Review of Pre-Release Access to Official Statistics , <https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/62084/pre-release-stats.pdf>.

[48] Mike Bird, «Lucky, Good or Tipped Off? The Curious Case of Government Data and the Pound», Wall Street Journal , 26 de abril de 2017; y «New Data Suggest U.K. Government Figures Are Getting Released Early», Wall Street Journal , 13 de marzo de 2017.

NOVENA REGLA: RECUERDA QUE LA DESINFORMACIÓN TAMBIÉN PUEDE SER BELLA

[1] Para saber más sobre la contribución estadística de Florence Nightingale, véase Mark Bostridge, Florence Nightingale: The Woman and Her Legend , Londres, Penguin, 2009; Lynn McDonald (ed.), The Collected Works of Florence Nightingale , Waterloo, Ont., Wilfrid Laurier University Press, 2009-2010, y «Florence Nightingale: Passionate Statistician», Journal of Holistic Nursing , 28(1), marzo de 2010; Hugh Small, «Did Nightingale’s “Rose Diagram” save millions of lives?», seminar paper , Royal Statistical Society, 7 de octubre de 2010; Cohen, I. Bernard. «Florence Nightingale», Scientific American , 250(3), 1984, pp. 128-137, <www.jstor.org/stable/24969329>, consultado el 13 de marzo de 2020; Eileen Magnello, «Florence Nightingale: A Victorian Statistician», Mathematics in School , mayo de 2010, y «The statistical thinking and ideas of Florence Nightingale and Victorian politicians», Radical Statistics , 102.

[2] Borrador de John Sutherland (supuestamente, encargado por Florence Nightingale) a William Farr, marzo de 1861.

[3] Estas citas de Nightingale se encuentran en Marion Diamond y Mervyn Stone, «Nightingale on Quetelet», Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , 1, 1981, pp. 66-79.

[4] Alberto Cairo, The Functional Art , Berkeley, CA, Peachpit Press, 2013.

[5] Robert Venturi, Denise Scott Brown y Steven Izenour, Learning from Las Vegas: The Forgotten Symbolism of Architectural Form , Cambridge, MA., MIT Press, 1977; véase también <https://99percentinvisible.org/article/lessons-sin-cityarchitecture-ducks-versus-decorated-sheds/>; y Edward Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information , Cheshire, CT., Graphics Press, 1983, 2001, pp. 106-121.

[6] Scott Bateman, Regan L. Mandryk, Carl Gutwin, Aaron Genest, David McDine y Christopher Brooks, «Useful Junk? The Effects of Visual Embellishment on Comprehension and Memorability of Charts», ACM Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI) , 2010.

[7] Linda Rodriguez McRobbie, «When the British wanted to camouflage their warships, they made them dazzle», Smithsonian Magazine , 7 de abril de 2016, <https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-british-wanted camouflage-their-warships-they-made-them-dazzle-180958657/>.

[8] David McCandless, Debtris US , 30 de diciembre de 2010, <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7Pahd2X-eE>.

[9] <https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-billionpound-o-gram>.

[10] Brian Brettschneider, «Lessons from posting a fake map», Forbes. com, 23 de noviembre de 2018, <https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbretts chneider/2018/11/23/lessons-from-posting-a-fake-map/#5138b31959ec>.

[11] Florence Nightingale, «Notes on the Health of the British Army», citado por Lynn McDonald (ed.), The Collected Works of Florence Nightingale , vol. 14, p. 37.

[12] McDonald (ed.), The Collected Works of Florence Nightingale , vol. 14, p. 551.

[13] Carta de Florence Nightingale a Sidney Herbert, 19 de agosto de 1857.

[14] Alberto Cairo, How Charts Lie , Nueva York, W. W. Norton, 2019, p. 47.

[15] William Cleveland, The Elements of Graphing Data , Wadsworth, Monterey, 1994; Gene Zelazny, Say it with Charts , Nueva York, McGraw-Hill, 1985; Naomi Robbins, Creating More Effective Graphs , New Jersey, Wiley, 2005.

[16] Edward Tufte, Envisioning Information , Cheshire CT, Graphics Press, 1990.

[17] Larry Buchanan, «Idea of the Week: Inequality and New York’s Subway», The New Yorker , 15 de abril de 2013, <https://www.newyorker. com/news/news-desk/idea-of-the-week-inequality-and-new-yorks-subway>.

[18] Simon Scarr, «Iraq’s Bloody Toll», South China Morning Post , <https://www.scmp.com/infographics/article/1284683/iraqs-bloody-toll>.

[19] Andy Cotgreave, «Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics», InfoWorld , <https://www.infoworld.com/article/3088166/why-how-to-lie-with-statisticsdid-us-adisservice.html>.

[20] Carta de William Farr a Florence Nightingale, 24 de noviembre de 1863, citada por John M. Eyler, Victorian Social Medicine: The Ideas and Methods of William Farr , Londres, Johns Hopkins Press, 1979, p. 175.

[21] <https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/florencenightingale-pioneer-statistician>.

DÉCIMA REGLA: MANTÉN LA MENTE ABIERTA

[1] Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken y Stanley Schachter, When Prophecy Fails , Nueva York, Harper-Torchbooks, 1956.

[2] Walter A. Friedman, Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters , Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2013; y Sylvia Nasar, Grand Pursuit , Londres, Fourth Estate, 2011.

[3] Friedman, Fortune Tellers .

[4] Irving Fisher, How to Live , Nueva York, Funk and Wagnalls, 21.ª ed., 1946.

[5] Mark Thornton, The Economics of Prohibition , Salt Lake City, University of Utah Press, 1991.

[6] Esther Ingliss-Arkell, «Did a case of scientific misconduct win the Nobel prize for physics?», <https://io9.gizmodo.com/did-a-case-of-scientificmisconduct-win-the-nobel-prize-1565949589>.

[7] Richard Feynman, «Cargo Cult Science», charla en Caltech, 1974: <http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm>.

[8] M. Henrion y B. Fischhoff, «Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants», American Journal of Physics , 54, 1986, pp. 791-798, <https://doi.org/10.1119/1.14447>.

[9] Entrevista del autor con Jonas Olofsson, 22 de enero de 2020.

[10] T. C. Brock y J. L. Balloun, «Behavioral receptivity to dissonant information», Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 6(4, Pt.1), 1967, pp. 413-428, <https://doi.org/10.1037/h0021225>.

[11] B. Fischhoff y R. Beyth, «“I knew it would happen”: Remembered probabilities of once-future things», Organizational Behavior & Human Performance , 13(1), 1975, pp. 1-16, <https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073 (75)90002-1>.

[12] Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgement , Princeton, Princeton University Press, 2005; Philip Tetlock y Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , Nueva York, Crown, 2015, p. 184.

[13] Welton Chang, Eva Chen, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock, «Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments», Judgment and Decision Making , 11(5), septiembre de 2016, pp. 509-526.

[14] Tetlock y Gardner, Superforecasting , p. 127.

[15] Nasar, Grand Pursuit ; y John Wasik, Keynes’s Way to Wealth , Nueva York, McGraw-Hill, 2013.

[16] Anne Emberton, «Keynes and the Degas Sale», History Today , 46(1), enero de 1996; Jason Zweig, «When Keynes Played Art Buyer», Wall Street Journal , 30 de marzo de 2018; «The Curious Tale of the Economist and the Cezanne in the Hedge», 3 de mayo de 2014, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27226104>.

[17] David Chambers y Elroy Dimson, «Retrospectives: John Maynard Keynes, Investment Innovator», Journal of Economic Perspectives , 27(3), 2013, pp. 213-228, <https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.3.213>.

[18] M. Deutsch y H. B. Gerard, «A study of normative and informational social influences upon individual judgment», Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology , 51(3), 1955, pp. 629-636, <https://doi.org/10.1037/h0046408>.

[19] Philip Tetlock, Twitter, 6 de enero de 2020, <https://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1214202229156016128>.

[20] Nasar, Grand Pursuit , p. 314.

[21] Friedman, Fortune Tellers .

LA REGLA DE ORO: SÉ CURIOSO

[1] Orson Welles, consejos a los estudiantes de la Universidad de California Los Ángeles, 1941.

[2] Onora O’Neill, Reith Lectures 2002, Lecture 4: «Trust and transparency», <http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/rm<http/radio4/transcripts/20020427_ reith.pdf>.

[3] Dan M. Kahan, David A. Hoffman, Donald Braman, Danieli Evans Peterman y Jeffrey John Rachlinski, «“They Saw a Protest”: Cognitive Illiberalism and the Speech-Conduct Distinction», 5 de febrero de 2011, Cultural Cognition Project Working Paper n.º 63; Stanford Law Review , 64, 2012; Temple University Legal Studies Research Paper n.º 2011-2017, disponible en: <https://ssrn.com/abstract=1755706>.

[4] Dan Kahan, «Why Smart People Are Vulnerable to Putting Tribe Before Truth», Scientific American : Observations , 3 de diciembre de 2018, <https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/why-smart-people-arevulnerable-to-putting-tribe-before-truth/>; Brian Resnick, «There may be an antidote to politically motivated reasoning. And it’s wonderfully simple», Vox. com, 7 de febrero de 2017, <https://www.vox.com/science-andhealth/2017 /2/1/14392290/partisan-bias-dan-kahan-curiosity>; D. M. Kahan, A. Landrum, K. Carpenter, L. Helft y K. Hall Jamieson, «Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing», Political Psychology , 38, 2017, pp. 179-199, <https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12396>.

[5] Entrevista del autor con Dan Kahan, 24 de noviembre de 2017.

[6] J. Kaplan, S. Gimbel y S. Harris, «Neural correlates of maintaining one’s political beliefs in the face of counterevidence», Scientific Reports , 6(39589), 2016, <https://doi.org/10.1038/srep39589>.

[7] G. Loewenstein, «The psychology of curiosity: A review and reinterpretation», Psychological Bulletin , 116(1), 1994, pp. 75-98, <https://doi. org/10.1037/0033-2909.116.1.75>.

[8] L. Rozenblit y F. Keil, «The misunderstood limits of folk science: an illusion of explanatory depth», Cognitive Science , 26, 2002, pp. 521-562, <https://doi.org/10.1207/s15516709cog2605_1>.

[9] P. M. Fernbach, T. Rogers, C. R. Fox y S. A. Sloman, «Political Extremism Is Supported by an Illusion of Understanding», Psychological Science , 24(6), 2013, pp. 939-946, <https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797612464058>.

[10] Steven Sloman y Philip M. Fernbach, «Asked to explain, we become less partisan», The New York Times , 21 de octubre de 2012.

[11] Michael F. Dahlstrom, «Storytelling in science», Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , 111 (Supplement 4), septiembre de 2014, pp. 13614-13620, <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1320645111>.

[12] Bruce W. Hardy, Jeffrey A. Gottfried, Kenneth M. Winneg y Kathleen Hall Jamieson, «Stephen Colbert’s Civics Lesson: How Colbert Super PAC Taught Viewers About Campaign Finance, Mass Communication and Society», Mass Communication and Society 17(3), 2014, pp. 329-353, <https://doi.org/10.1080/15205436.2014.891138>.

[13] «The Planet Money T-Shirt»: <https://www.npr.org/series/262481306/planet-money-t-shirt-project-series?t=1580750014093>.

[14] Economics: The Profession and the Public , seminario en el Tesoro de Londres, 5 de mayo de 2017.

[15] Quote Investigator, <https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/11/01/cure/>.

[16] «Why is this lying bastard lying to me?» (este sentimiento es cortesía del famoso periodista británico Louis Herren).