Contents

Introduction: Thinking, Critically

PART ONE: EVALUATING NUMBERS

Plausibility

Fun with Averages

Axis Shenanigans

Hijinks with How Numbers Are Reported

How Numbers Are Collected

Probabilities

PART TWO: EVALUATING WORDS

How Do We Know?

Identifying Expertise

Overlooked, Undervalued Alternative Explanations

Counterknowledge

PART THREE: EVALUATING THE WORLD

How Science Works

Logical Fallacies

Knowing What You Don’t Know

Bayesian Thinking in Science and in Court

Four Case Studies

Conclusion: Discovering Your Own

Appendix: Application of Bayes’s Rule

Notes

Glossary

Acknowledgments

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