What You’ll Learn
• Types of natural and human-made hazards
• The relationship between hazards and the Earth’s dynamic equilibrium
• How hazards differ from disasters
• Types of costs associated with disasters
• The relationship between climate change and natural hazards
Goals and Outcomes
• Distinguish between hazards and disasters
• Analyze why there are more and bigger disasters
• Discuss the potential costs of a disaster scenario
Disasters are not natural. Of course, there are many natural hazards in the world, and there are many human-made hazards as well. But not every hazard becomes a disaster. Chapter 1 gives a brief overview of the hazards that face our communities, both natural and human-made, and how a hazard differs from a disaster. Also covered in this chapter are the many costs—economic, social, environmental, and human—associated with hazards that affect the built environment, along with an introduction to the concept of social vulnerability. The chapter concludes with a discussion of how climate change is expected to alter some of the characteristics of the hazards we experience now and in the future.
1.2 Hazards: Part of the Natural Environment
This section of Chapter 1 introduces the concept of natural hazards and describes how they are naturally occurring phenomena that play a vital role in the Earth’s dynamic equilibrium. This section also introduces human-made hazards as a potential threat to our communities.
Natural hazards are part of the world around us, and their occurrence is inevitable. Floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, winter storms, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, landslides, sinkholes, and other extreme events are natural phenomena that are largely beyond human control.
Some natural events can change the ecological environment. Consider these impacts caused by natural hazards:
• Wildfires burn forests and grasslands.
• Coastal storms erode beaches, flatten dunes, and create or fill inlets.
• Flooding inundates wetlands and marshes.
• Volcanic eruptions cover the landscape with molten rock and lava.
Despite the destruction caused by natural hazards, these occurrences are part of the natural system. Hazards have been happening for billions of years on Earth and will continue for eons more. The natural environment is amazingly recuperative and resilient. After a hazard event, ecosystems can regenerate, and habitats are restored in time for the next generation of plant and animal life to begin anew.
1.2.1 The Earth’s Dynamic Equilibrium
Many of the events we call “hazards” are in fact beneficial for the natural environment and help maintain the delicate balance of nature, the Earth’s dynamic equilibrium. Under normal, undisturbed conditions, natural systems maintain a balanced state over long periods of time through a series of adjustments. Change in one part of the system will be balanced by change in another part so that eventually the entire system regains equilibrium.
Consider the benefits that result when natural systems absorb the impact of some hazard events and readjust through dynamic equilibrium1:
• Wildfires remove low-growing underbrush, opening up the forest floor to sunlight and nourishing the soil so that established trees can grow stronger and healthier.
• Flooding brings nutrients and sediment to wetlands and marshes, creating a rich habitat for a variety of plant and animal species.
• Volcanic lava and ash form fertile soils when they weather and break down,1 stimulating new plant growth.
These examples illustrate ways in which the environment is well equipped to deal with hazards as part of the natural processes on Earth. Among these natural processes are fluctuations in global temperatures that the Earth has experienced for millennia. Periods of extreme cold as well as periods of higher temperatures have always been part of our dynamic equilibrium. But as we will explore more fully later in this chapter, our changing climate is altering the naturally occurring ebb and flow of the Earth’s systems, including alterations in the causal processes of some classes of natural hazards.
1.2.2 Types of Natural Hazards
Natural hazards can be classified according to the physical processes involved in their occurrence. The four types of natural hazards are the following:
• Meteorological (hurricanes, tropical storms, typhoons, tornadoes, snow and ice storms, thunderstorms, etc.)
• Geological (earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, landslides, subsidence, etc.)
• Hydrological (floods, droughts, wildfire, etc.)
• Extraterrestrial (meteorites impacting the Earth’s surface)
Physical parameters of natural hazards include intensity and severity, measures that indicate the relative strength of a particular hazard within a class. Hurricanes, for instance, are often categorized using the Saffir–Simpson scale, which ranks hurricanes from 1 to 5 according to maximum wind speed, storm surge potential, and barometric pressure. In Chapter 3, we will describe the physical elements of hurricanes and other meteorological and hydrological hazards. Earthquakes are usually described in terms of magnitude using the modified Mercalli scale, or the Richter scale, which is a unit of measurement that describes the energy release of an earthquake through shock wave amplitude. We will discuss earthquakes and other geological hazards in more detail in Chapter 4. These systems of hazard measurement are used by professional meteorologists, hydrologists, seismologists, and other scientists interested in studying and predicting natural hazard events. These scales also provide planners, emergency managers, engineers, and decision makers at all levels with a common terminology to describe, anticipate, plan for, and deal with natural hazards in terms of policy and management.
HAZARDS, HAZARDS EVERYWHERE
Some natural hazards occur only in certain regions of the United States. Volcanoes are not found in New England, but in Hawaii active volcanoes produce lava, ash, and steam at regular intervals. Other types of hazards are more widely distributed and can be found almost anywhere. Flooding can occur wherever water sources overflow their normal channels. In fact, flash floods can happen even in areas that experience drought most of the year, such as Las Vegas, Nevada. Still other types of hazards occur quite frequently in one part of the country but are also possible in other areas that experience them less often. For example, the risk of earthquakes in California is well documented, but less well known is the large earthquake that struck Charleston, South Carolina, in 1886. The risk of an earthquake occurring there in the near future is quite significant.
1.2.3 A Note on Extraterrestrial Hazards
We will not discuss extraterrestrial hazards further in this book, although the threat of meteorites piercing the Earth’s atmosphere and impacting the surface of the planet is considered a natural hazard. Geologists have documented previous impacts that have left large craters in the Earth’s surface. Paleontologists have postulated that one of these catastrophic impacts caused the extinction of the dinosaurs along with vast numbers of species of plant and animal life.2
Catastrophic meteorite impacts have been the grist for Hollywood’s mill for years, but all jokes aside, the scientific community increasingly takes the threat of meteorite impacts seriously, especially considering the growing amount of “space junk” floating in space.
CHELYABINSK METEOR
On February 15, 2013 a large meteor fell to Earth in Russia’s Ural Mountains. Estimated to be about 19 meters wide, the asteroid hit the atmosphere with the approximate energy of 500,000 tons of TNT, sending a shockwave twice around the globe. The meteorite caused widespread damage and injured hundreds of people.
A study published in the journal Nature indicated that this type of meteor impact occurs with surprising frequency, and called for measures to detect and warn populations about possible incoming threats from space.* However, most meteorites go undetected and cause no visible damage to the Earth’s surface, since they most often fall into the ocean or in remote areas.
In general terms, there are two major classifications of human-made hazards: technological hazards and terrorism. Technological hazards are often caused by accident—either through incompetence, poor planning, operator error, faulty equipment, bad weather, or some other mishap. Terrorism, on the other hand, implies an intentional act; that is, some individual or group means to cause harm to further a particular agenda, whether political, social, economic, religious or a combination of missions. Still other human-caused events may occur because the perpetrator is delusional or misguided in some way, such as the case of many of the mass shootings that have occurred over the past few decades. Our ability to predict where or when human-made hazards will occur is becoming increasingly more advanced, although our ability to completely prevent either terrorism or technological hazards is still limited. We will explore human-made hazards and their effects in Chapter 5.
SELF-CHECK
• Define natural hazards and dynamic equilibrium.
• Discuss the beneficial functions of three natural hazards.
• Describe the differences between technological hazards and terrorism.
1.3 Hazards and Disasters: Not the Same
Natural hazards occur as part of the balance of nature, and natural environments and ecosystems can usually recover and restore themselves after a hazard event. A disaster is something different. A disaster results when a natural hazard takes place where humans are located and alters the normal functioning of a community or a society. A disaster is caused not just by a hazardous physical event, but the interaction of that event with vulnerable social conditions that leads to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects. In other words, it is only when people are injured and property is damaged by a hazard that we experience it as a disaster (see Figure 1.1).
1.3.1 An Official Definition of Disaster
The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act is the primary legislation authorizing the federal government to provide disaster assistance to states, local governments, Native American tribes, and individuals and families. The Stafford Act defines a disaster as
FIGURE 1.1 Disasters occur at the intersection of the built environment and a naturally occurring hazard, such as a hurricane.
Any natural catastrophe (including hurricane, tornado, storm, high water, wind driven water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, mudslide, snowstorm, or drought), or, regardless of the cause, any fire, flood or explosion, in any part of the United States, which in the determination of the President causes damage of sufficient severity and magnitude to warrant major disaster assistance under this Act to supplement the effort and available resources of states, local governments, and disaster relief organizations, in alleviating the damage, loss, hardship, or suffering caused thereby.
As this definition indicates, a disaster, whatever its cause, is a “catastrophe” of such magnitude and severity that the ability of states and local governments to cope is overwhelmed. The threshold for determining what constitutes a disaster depends upon the resources and capabilities of states and local communities, as supplemented by relief organizations such as the American Red Cross. The patchwork of policies and regulations that makes up our system of governance has direct bearing on these resources and capabilities. Chapters 6 through 8 elaborate on the hazards management framework that exists in our federalist system of government. These chapters will provide information about how the federal, state, and local governments carry out their responsibilities for disaster management. It is important to note that the federal government is responsible for providing assistance only after other resources have been depleted. How strictly this policy is actually carried out is discussed in later chapters as well. The politics of extreme natural events can significantly affect the way in which disaster declarations are made and how disaster funds are disbursed from the national treasury.
1.3.2 Why Are There More and Bigger Disasters?
Disaster losses in the United States and around the world have increased dramatically in recent decades. Figure 1.2 shows the number of U.S. disasters each year since 1980 with losses totaling over $1 billion, as well as the overall cost of these disasters. It appears that the number and overall cost of major disasters is growing. The same trend holds true globally. Since 1980, the world has lost more than 2.5 million people and nearly $4 trillion due to natural disasters.*
Why are natural disasters becoming more costly? We are experiencing more disasters than ever before in our nation’s history because more infrastructure and more people are in harm’s way than ever before. The rate of disasters in this country is rising at an alarming rate, because more people have chosen to live in areas exposed to coastal storms, repeated flooding, seismic activity, and other types of natural hazards, often with little or no attention to the need to protect themselves and their property. As a result, the risk of disasters occurring in the wake of natural hazards has grown exponentially over the past few decades.
FIGURE 1.2 The number of disasters exceeding $1 billion in direct damages in the United States each year from 1980 to 2011, adjusted to 2011 dollars using the consumer price index. (Data from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/docs/smith-and-katz-2013.pdf)
Why is this happening? Part of the answer is that the population of the United States is growing very quickly. As cities and towns expand to accommodate more people, they sprawl out into areas that are potentially hazardous. For instance, the cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco are growing by leaps and bounds, despite the well-known risk of earthquakes in California. Other communities are building new shopping centers and subdivisions in the floodplain, even though these areas are flooded on a regular basis. Still others are building on steep slopes where the potential for landslides is high, and others insist on encroaching on the urban–wildland interface despite the likelihood of wildfires.
Perhaps the most dramatic increase in population growth and development is occurring on our nation’s shorelines. The coastal environment is extremely hazardous due to hurricanes, nor’easters, flooding, storm surge, erosion, inlet migration, and other coastal hazards, yet the shoreline continues to be the most desirable real estate in the country. In 2010, 39% of the U.S. population lived in counties directly on the coastal shoreline, while these counties account for only 10% of the total land area.* From 1970 to 2010, the population of these counties increased by almost 40% and is projected to increase by an additional 8% by 2020.3 As long as development and population growth keep expanding into hazardous areas, we can expect more and bigger disasters in the future.
HURRICANE KATRINA: AN IMPRESSIVE NATURAL HAZARD AND A CATASTROPHIC HUMAN DISASTER
Hurricane Katrina is an example of both an extreme natural hazard and a devastating disaster (see Figure 1.3). This storm was not only extraordinarily powerful, but it also caused a catastrophic amount of damage and a tragic number of human deaths. As a natural hazard, Katrina had a life span in hurricane form of almost 4 days. During that time, Katrina made landfall twice, first as a Category 1 hurricane in Florida and then again as a Category 3 hurricane in Louisiana. It was one of the largest, most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic when it reached Category 5 status over the Gulf of Mexico. The storm produced high winds, storm surge, flooding, and tornadoes in parts of Cuba, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana and continued to produce heavy rains and flooding as it dissipated through the Mississippi Basin and Tennessee Valley.
If there had been no people or property in the path of Hurricane Katrina to experience her wrath, or if the hurricane had taken place on open ocean waters, the hurricane would have been counted as one of the strongest storms on record. But the implications of the storm would have been of interest merely to professional meteorologists and amateur storm watchers.
FIGURE 1.3 Satellite image of Hurricane Katrina over the central Gulf of Mexico on August 28, 2005, near the time of peak intensity.
Unfortunately, the history of Hurricane Katrina tells a very different tale. Thousands of people and structures were within direct reach of Katrina’s intense rain bands, massive storm surges, and swirling winds, resulting in one of the deadliest, as well as the single costliest hurricane ever to hit the United States.
In addition to changes in the exposure and vulnerability of society to natural hazards, it is becoming increasingly clear that some natural hazard events are changing in frequency and intensity. Increasing average worldwide temperatures associated with global climate change are having far reaching effects, from accelerating the rate of sea level rise to influencing the likelihood of weather extremes such as flooding and drought. The connection between climate change and natural hazards is discussed in more detail later in this chapter.
Natural hazards may also appear to be increasing in frequency because of heightened media exposure. Referred to as the “CNN syndrome,” intense media coverage of hazard events can increase awareness of hazard losses worldwide as the capability for reporting and documentation of news expands.4 In past generations, when communication systems were not instantaneous as they are today, fewer people knew about natural hazards that took place outside their own communities. Today, it is not uncommon to get details, photos and videos of disasters as they are occurring through the Internet and social media.
SELF-CHECK
• Characterize the federal government’s definition of disaster.
• Explain why disasters are increasing in frequency.
• Discuss how the conditions of a disaster differ from those of a natural hazard.
1.4 The Many Costs of Disasters
There are many different types of costs associated with a disaster. Some costs are obvious, such as the expense of repairing damaged homes and rebuilding roads and bridges. Other costs are less direct and cannot be fully calculated, sometimes not until years after the disaster has passed. Still other costs are not financial in nature, and no monetary value can be placed on them.
Disasters are very expensive, whether they are caused by a natural hazard or by a human agent. When people are in danger, they must be rescued quickly and safely, then sheltered and fed. When community security is compromised, law enforcement may need to beef up patrols to protect people and property from looting and vandalism (see Figure 1.4). When power goes out, electricity and telephone lines must be repaired. When buildings and infrastructure are damaged, they must be rebuilt.
FIGURE 1.4 East Grand Forks, Minnesota, April 8, 1997: Law enforcement officers patrol the Sherlock Park area of East Grand Forks during a massive flooding event.
It costs millions, sometimes billions of dollars to remove debris, repair infrastructure, rebuild homes, and reestablish commerce and industry when a community has been hit by a disaster. Local governments are often burdened with much of the cost to reconstruct schools, utilities, fire stations, roads, bridges, and other local facilities that are damaged during a disaster. If the local and state governments cannot afford to pay for it all, the federal government may cover much of the cost of recovery and reconstruction following a large disaster, as well as the costs of short-term assistance to people who lose their homes and jobs. Federal disaster assistance programs are discussed in more detail in Chapter 6.
Who pays for these costs? Taxpayers finance the majority of activities taken on by local, state, and federal governments before, during, and after a disaster. Property owners who have purchased insurance (homeowners, flood, earthquake, etc.) often receive reimbursement for some of the costs of repairing their homes and businesses following a disaster. But when thousands of people make insurance claims all at once after a large-scale disaster, premiums for everyone, not just for those directly affected, can go up. Churches and other charities and volunteer organizations also contribute generously for disaster recovery, but the funds that they provide to disaster victims could have been directed elsewhere, such as helping the homeless, donating to arts and education, protecting animals, or otherwise serving the original mission of the organization. In other words, we all pay for disasters, even if we don’t live in the area directly affected.
1.4.2 Long-Term Economic Costs
In addition to the direct financial costs of repair and reconstruction, other costs are often associated with disasters. Long-term economic costs can keep a community from recovering fully after a disaster occurs, even if the direct financial costs of repair and reconstruction are met.
Following a large-scale disaster that affects a major portion of a community, local businesses may close permanently, either because their capital assets (warehouses, manufacturing plants, equipment, inventory, offices, etc.) are damaged beyond repair and cannot be replaced, or because the company has lost employees displaced by the disaster. Often, employees must move out of the area, either because they have lost their own homes or because they no longer have a place to work. Disruptions in the flow of goods and services impact local businesses directly, and can also damage industries located outside the disaster region, for a long time. Sometimes the supply chain—both “upstream” and “downstream” is disrupted for weeks or months on end, meaning suppliers cannot deliver raw materials and parts, while businesses are prevented from shipping out finished products. Long-term economic losses are particularly hard for small business owners and farmers, who may not have adequate savings or insurance to cover expenses and who cannot recoup their losses quickly enough to stay financially solvent.
The loss of jobs that occurs when major employers close because of a disaster can have a ripple effect throughout the community. If the job loss is severe enough, the entire economic structure of the locality can be changed permanently. Many smaller communities are dependent upon just one or two industries for their economic base, and when these are destroyed, there is no source of employment for residents. For example, towns and villages that serve primarily as tourist destinations can be devastated when a natural hazard obliterates the accommodations and attractions that bring visitors to the area. In turn, the local government loses its main sources of revenue from property, occupancy, and sales taxes, and no longer has means of providing services needed to support the community (see Figure 1.5).
Problems arising from changes to the economic structure and employment base are compounded when municipal services are interrupted and cannot be restored quickly and efficiently. The longer utilities, schools, transportation systems, communications, and other local facilities are offline, the more difficult it becomes for residents and businesses to return to work and commerce.
A lack of housing is often one of the most serious limitations to the full recovery of a community over the long term. When housing stocks are depleted because of an earthquake, hurricane, or other major disaster, the cost of available housing goes up, further adding to the economic burden of community residents. Building costs typically rise dramatically following a disaster, owing to a scarcity of materials, rising prices of material and labor, and a corresponding increase in demand. These high prices further limit the housing choices of new and returning residents.
FIGURE 1.5 Hurricane Sandy devastated much of the Jersey shore when it ripped along the Atlantic coastline in 2012. Many popular tourist destinations were damaged beyond repair, although some communities were able to begin the recovery process soon after the storm. (Courtesy of Liz Roll, FEMA.)
Economic losses are not the only costs associated with hazard events. The natural environment can suffer severe damage during a disaster. Environmental damage can be the result of a human-made hazard that affects habitats and ecosystems directly, such as a chemical accident or an oil spill. The environment can also be damaged when a natural hazard causes a secondary hazard to occur, such as an earthquake that causes a gas line to rupture or a tornado that uproots a hazardous waste facility.
Flooding very often causes severe environmental damage when hazardous materials are released into the floodwaters. As floodwaters recede, contaminants may be carried along to surface waters (rivers, lakes, and streams) or seep into the groundwater and eventually may make their way into drinking water supplies. For example, propane, gas, chemicals, solvents, pesticides, and other harmful agents can be released if tanks, barrels, and storage containers are breached during a flooding event. Junkyards, livestock pens, meat and poultry processing plants, sewage treatment facilities, and other sources of contamination can also increase the environmental costs of a flooding disaster. For example, during Hurricane Floyd in 1999, many hog farms in eastern North Carolina were flooded when rivers and streams overflowed their banks following days of heavy rainfall. Tons of raw animal waste spilled over containment lagoons and entered the waterways of the region. Water quality declined precipitously, endangering the health of people, livestock, wildlife, and aquatic animals and fish for a considerable length of time after the event.
Often, with proper cleanup and handling procedures, the damage to ecosystems and habitats can be minimized, but in other cases, wildlife and vegetation are severely impacted for many years following a disaster.
One of the most insidious effects of a disaster is the impact it can have on society. When a disaster destroys entire neighborhoods, the social fabric of the community may be ripped to shreds. Consider these possible consequences of a catastrophic event:
• Social networks that were in place to support residents are disjointed.
• A vibrant neighborhood may suddenly become a ghost town.
• Residents are often displaced and forced to live in unfamiliar locations far from family and friends.
• Children are suddenly without teachers, friends, and classmates, and the routines of school and home life are disrupted.
• Places of worship may lose their congregations, and community centers that once provided assistance to residents may be dismantled.
• Incidents of domestic violence and substance abuse often increase following a traumatic event.
1.4.5 Human Lives Lost: Rich Country, Poor Country
The death of one human being as a result of a natural or human-made hazard is one death too many. Although uncommon, the United States has experienced disasters with death tolls reaching over one thousand people. The worst of these occurring in this century was Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when over 1800 lives were tragically lost.
Yet compared to other, less developed nations, the United States and other richer countries tend to have fewer deaths associated with disasters than poorer nations. In fact, a study of disasters that occurred in 73 nations worldwide between 1980 and 2002 found that, despite there being no difference in the number or severity of natural hazard events between rich and poor countries, there is a substantial difference in the death tolls.5 The Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan reported in 1999 that
Ninety percent of disaster victims worldwide live in developing countries where poverty and population pressures force growing numbers of poor people to live in harm’s way on floodplains, in earthquake prone zones and on unstable hillsides. Unsafe buildings compound the risks. The vulnerability of those living in risk prone areas is perhaps the single most important cause of disaster casualties and damage.
Some recent global events demonstrate the catastrophic loss of life often seen in disasters occurring in developing nations. The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, often referred to as the Boxing Day tsunami, killed more than 230,000 people in 14 countries. Similarly tragic was the 2010 Haiti earthquake with a death toll estimated by the Haiti government of 250,000.
We have seen that across the globe, those populations with the least amount of resources are disproportionally impacted by disasters. But who are the people that make up these statistics?
There has been a significant amount of research into the topic of “social vulnerability,” including attempts to identify and define the characteristics of populations that are most susceptible to the negative impacts of disaster.
It is fairly clear from this work that we can dispel a popular myth about natural disasters6:
Myth: |
Disasters kill people without respect for social class or economic status. |
Reality: |
The poor and marginalized are much more at risk of death than are rich people or the middle classes. |
This myth-buster was made abundantly clear during the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, which as we noted above was the single most deadly event to occur in the United States in recent history. The hurricane itself was merely a phenomenon of nature, without target or purpose. And yet, those who were killed, displaced or made homeless were disproportionately low-income African Americans who had no way to evacuate the region as the storm tore through.
The following list indicates some of the factors that can increase social vulnerability, both at home and abroad:
• Race, culture, and ethnicity
• Age
• Gender
• Disability
• Literacy
• Language barriers
• Social class
• Income disparity
• Foreign birth
• Illegal residency
• Domestic violence/violence against women
• Substance abuse/mental illness
• Homelessness
The population groups that fall into the categories above are not an insignificant proportion of our society. At the global level, we would add to this list those living with HIV/AIDs as well as populations displaced or otherwise impacted by genocide, war, civil unrest, famine and drought, all of which serve to make these people disproportionately vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards.
SELF-CHECK
• List the five categories of costs associated with disaster.
• Discuss how the environment can suffer from a disaster.
• Cite five examples of social costs.
• What are some of the factors that contribute to social vulnerability?
1.5 Impacts of Climate Change on Natural Hazards
Earth’s climate has varied greatly in the past, but global temperatures have risen unusually quickly over the last few decades. According to reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and leading scientists around the world, this rise in temperature is due primarily to human-induced emissions from heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide. Atmosphere and ocean temperatures are higher on average than they have been in the past 500 years, and are likely higher than any other time in the last 1000 years. Global average temperature has risen by about 1.5°F since 1900. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2–11.5°F, depending on how successfully heat-trapping gas emissions are reduced around the world.* This phenomenon is referred to as climate change, a statistically identifiable change in the means and/or variability of the climate that persists for decades or longer.
WHAT IS THE IPCC?
Established in 1988 by the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. The IPCC is a scientific body that reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socioeconomic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Instead, thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis.
The IPCC issues periodic assessment reports that review the latest climate science, as well as a series of special reports on particular topics. All IPCC reports are freely available on the organization’s website at http://www.ipcc.ch/.
1.5.1 Is It Weather or Is It Climate?
What does climate have to do with weather? Climate is essentially the average weather over a long period of time, often defined as a few decades. This connection has been characterized by the phrase, “Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get.” Therefore, a single rainstorm is a weather event, but if the average number of rainstorms in a given area is significantly higher for decades on end, this can be described as an impact of climate change. Regarding natural hazards, climate change has both stacked the deck, making some weather events more frequent and severe, and added wildcards, increasing the chances that a hazard event will occur far outside the norm.* Therefore, climate change is contributing to shattered records and unprecedented natural hazard events in the United States and abroad.
A couple of degrees in temperature may not sound like cause for concern, but small changes in average temperature can have tremendous impacts on the dynamic equilibrium of the planet, influencing weather patterns and the likelihood and severity of natural hazards. For example, in addition to a rising temperature, scientists in the United States have already observed an increase in heavy downpours, rapidly retreating glaciers, earlier snowmelt, changes in river flows, sea level rise, and a host of other changes.
1.5.2 Climate Change around the Globe
Climate change impacts go far beyond the borders of the United States, affecting every country in the world. These impacts vary significantly from country to country, and in many cases those with fewer resources to address hazards connected with climate change are most vulnerable. For example, by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people in the African continent are projected to face increased water stress, creating significant public health, agricultural and food security challenges. On the other hand, coastal areas of Asia will continue to face significant risks due to increased flooding. Figure 1.6 depicts the most recent global predictions of temperate and precipitation changes that are likely to occur by the end of this century.7
FIGURE 1.6 A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation levels across the globe over the next century.
These changes are expected to have profound effects on ecological and human health. For example, as sea level rises, coastal communities are placed at much higher risk from hurricanes and coastal storms, along with the risk of slower-evolving impacts, such as long-term erosion and saltwater intrusion into local aquifers. Higher average temperatures also increase the likelihood of drought and wildfires, placing more communities in harm’s way and posing new challenges for agriculture and other industries. These and other impacts of global climate changes on existing natural hazards are explored throughout Chapters 3 and 4.
While climate change is a global issue, the impacts are felt locally, with wide variations from place to place. Many communities in the northeast are likely to see more flooding in coming years as the number of heavy downpours increases, while wildfire risks will continue to rise in areas of the southwest that are experiencing more hot, dry days. Since it is increasingly clear that climate change influences natural hazards risks, emergency managers, resources managers and planners will need to anticipate climate change effects on the local community to effectively respond to hazards. These efforts to address climate change within the hazards management framework are explored throughout this book.
Every community faces potential exposure to hazards, both natural and human-made. Only when people are injured or killed and property is damaged by a hazard does a disaster occur. Due to patterns of population growth and development in the United States, disasters now occur more frequently than ever before. The impacts of climate change will only exacerbate the hazards we experience. Because we all pay for these disasters, directly or indirectly, it is in our best interests to prepare for disasters with responsible emergency management plans. Mitigation and preparedness strategies are critical ways of making a community more resilient against the impacts of hazards.
Climate change |
A statistically identifiable change in the means and/or variability of the climate that persists for decades or longer. |
Disaster |
The result when a natural hazard takes place where humans have situated themselves. |
Dynamic equilibrium |
The Earth’s natural systems maintain a balanced state over long periods of time through a series of adjustments. |
Human-made hazards |
Intentional or accidental occurrences caused by human activity; examples include oil spills and acts of terrorism such as bombings. |
Natural hazards |
Inevitable and uncontrollable occurrences such as floods, hurricanes, winter storms, and earthquakes. |
Summary Questions
1. Natural hazards are not the same as disasters. True or False?
2. Which of the following is an example of a natural hazard?
a. Warehouse fire
b. Sewage overflow
c. Winter storm
d. Oil spill
3. The frequency of hazards is increasing. True or False?
4. Disasters are a beneficial part of the balance of nature. True or False?
5. A disaster occurs only when human life and property suffer from damage. True or False?
6. Disasters occur most often in unpopulated areas. True or False?
7. Examples of technological hazards include
a. Bridge collapse
b. Flood
c. Bombing
d. Tornado
8. Costs associated with disasters include
a. Infrastructure repair
b. Rise in domestic violence
c. Job loss
d. All of the above
9. Contamination of water supplies is a possible environmental cost associated with a flood. True or False?
1. Natural hazards may differ from one geographic area to the next. Explain.
2. Hazards are a part of the Earth’s dynamic equilibrium. Explain the role of a nor’easter on the coast of Long Island.
3. Give three possible explanations for why it appears that natural hazards are becoming more frequent.
4. How does a natural hazard differ from a disaster?
5. Disasters are increasing in frequency. Explain why.
6. Human-made hazards are another consideration for community planning. Name two types of human-made hazards.
7. How are natural hazards and human-made hazards alike? How are they different?
8. We all pay for the cost of disasters. Explain three ways we do so.
9. Some costs associated with disasters are not financial. Discuss these nonfinancial costs.
1. Natural hazards are uncontrollable events. List three examples of hazards particular to where you live.
2. Compare the disaster potential of Missoula, Montana, versus Miami, Florida.
3. Discuss the direct and indirect costs of an oil spill in a coastal Oregon tourist town.
4. As a resident of a rural farming region of the Midwest, you’ve suffered through three tornadoes this year. You’ve faced the obvious costs of damaged crops, buildings, and equipment. Outline some of the social costs your small community may face.
5. Which members of your community should be considered for extra protection during a disaster? How will you identify this vulnerable population?
Find Your Local Hazard
What natural hazards take place in your community on a regular basis? Are there hazards that haven’t happened in a long time, yet residents can still remember “the big one” that occurred years ago? You can visit the National Weather Service website to find warnings, watches, and advisories for all sorts of natural hazards for all states and territories in the United States. The website is updated about every 2 minutes around the clock. Go to www.weather.gov to find the forecast for your state.
Think about your own community or neighborhood. If a major disaster occurred where you live, what buildings and facilities could be damaged or destroyed? Who are the major employers in your city or town? What would happen if these industries and companies suddenly shutdown? Could people you know find jobs nearby, or would they be forced to transfer to other areas?
1. Coch, N. K. 1995. Geohazards: Natural and Human. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, p. 12.
2. Brower, D. J. and C. C. Bohl. 1998. Principles and Practice of Hazard Mitigation Instructor Guide. FEMA National Emergency Management Institute, Emmitsburg, MD.
3. Smith, A. and R. Katz. 2013. U. S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Data sources, trends, accuracy and biases. Natural Hazards 67(2): 387–410.
4. Platt, R. H. 1999. Disasters and Democracy: The Politics of Extreme Natural Events. Washington, DC: Island Press.
5. Kahn, M. 2005. The death toll from natural disasters: The role of income geography and institutions. Review of Economics and Statistics 87(2): 271–284.
6. Alexander, D. 2008. Forty-Five Common Misconceptions about Disaster. http://emergencyplanning.blogspot.com/.
7. IPCC, 2007: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S. et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.
* http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange.
* http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/population.html.
* http://library.globalchange.gov/global-climate-change-impacts-in-the-u-s-highlights-booklet.
* http://www.climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Cutting_Connecting%20the%20Dots_0.pdf.