1. WHITHER THE SNOWS OF YESTERYEAR?
1. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 167; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013a), table 4.1.
2. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 3.
3. Oxygen and hydrogen atoms in ordinary ice form tetrahedral bonds 109.5° apart. Stacking tetrahedra into a three-dimensional lattice creates a crystal with overall hexagonal symmetry (as in a snowflake). Ice can exist in at least 15 distinct phases, each with a different crystal structure, over a broad range of very low temperatures and high pressures.
4. “Eskimo,” once applied to all indigenous Arctic peoples of eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, and Greenland, now refers more narrowly to the Iñupiaq and Yupik people of Alaska, while those in Arctic Canada and Greenland are collectively called “Inuit.” The timing of the early migration based on genetics is discussed in Achilli et al. (2013).
5. Ingstad and Ingstad (2001).
11. Piri Reis, an Ottoman admiral and cartographer, compiled a world map in 1513 from various sources. This map, according to some, purportedly shows the coastline of Antarctica as it would appear without ice. This knowledge supposedly came from advanced ancient sources. However, when centered at 0° latitude, 0° longitude on an azimuthal equidistant projection, the map outlines the coastlines of France, Spain, West Africa, and South America down to southern Brazil fairly well, but deviates sharply beyond Uruguay, showing a coastline with little resemblance to Antarctica’s. See Steven Dutch, “The Piri Reis Map,” http://web.archive.org/web/20171226235246/https://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/PSEUDOSC/PiriRies.HTM.
12. Two others, a British naval captain, Edward Branfield, and an American sealer, Nathaniel Palmer, also sighted Antarctica within days of Bellingshausen.
13. Quoted in Walker (2013), p. 144.
15. Although best known for the voyage of the Endurance, Shackleton previously participated in the National Antarctic (Discovery) Expedition (1901–1903) and led the Nimrod Expedition (1907–1909) in which he and his party set a new southern record at 88°23′S, 162°E (only 180 kilometers [118 miles] from the South Pole) in January of 1909. His final expedition to Antarctica ended in South Georgia with his death in 1922.
17. National Research Council (2012).
19. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017); “Surface Air Temperature,” in Arctic Report Card 2017, ed. J. Richter-Menge, J. E. Overland, J. T. Mathis, and E. Osborne, pp. 5–12 (NOAA, 2017), ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/arctic/documents/ArcticReportCard _full_report2017.pdf (accessed February 12, 2018).
20. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017).
21. Comiso (2012); Stroeve et al. (2012).
22. Defined as ocean with an ice concentration of 15 percent or more.
23. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017).
26. National Snow & Ice Data Center, “Freezing in the Dark,” November 2, 2017, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/11/ (accessed February 13, 2018); Andrea Thompson, “Sea Ice Hits Record Lows at Both Poles,” February 13, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-ice-hits-record-lows-at-both-poles/ (accessed February 17, 2017).
28. Overduin and Solomon (2011).
29. The Little Ice Age lasted roughly from the thirteenth century to the mid-nineteenth century.
31. Van den Broecke et al. (2016); Forsberg et al. (2017); Harig and Simons (2015).
32. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets together would raise sea level by 66 meters, if both melted entirely (see table 1.1).
33. Straneo and Heimbach (2013); Joughin et al. (2012).
34. Joughin et al. (2014); Rignot et al. (2014).
35. Stroeve et al. (2012).
37. Tedesco et al. (2016).
38. Quinn (2007). The Arctic haze introduces conflicting feedbacks. Although sulfate aerosols scatter sunlight, cooling the surface, black carbon or soot weakly absorbs solar energy. Black carbon or soot disproportionately affects regional climate by creating a haze that spreads over highly reflecting Arctic snow and ice. Sulfate aerosols help increase the number of cloud droplets, whitening clouds and making them more reflecting (cooling effect). However, smaller droplets induce more downwelling infrared emission and, hence, warming.
39. Hadley and Kirchstetter (2012).
41. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) includes winds and tides, in addition to salinity- and temperature-driven ocean currents (see also Broecker, 2010).
42. Hu et al. (2011); Yin et al. (2010).
43. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013a); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013b).
44. Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ (accessed February 14, 2018); CO2.Earth, “Annual CO2 Data,” http://www.co2.earth/annual-co2/ (accessed June 29, 2018). The upward curve is punctuated by a rhythmic seasonal rise and fall, due largely to Northern Hemisphere vegetation. Photosynthesis consumes carbon dioxide during northern spring and summer; it is released during winter, as the vegetation becomes dormant
45. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013a); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013b).
46. Greenhouses also retain heat because they protect from the wind and reduce heat losses by conduction and convection.
47. United Nations Environment Programme (2007).
49. Bradley et al. (2006).
50. Bolch (2017); Pritchard (2017).
51. Belmecheri et al. (2015).
52. Huggel et al. (2012).
57. Dieng et al. (2017); Rietbroek et al. (2016).
58. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013a); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013b). See also appendix A.
59. Neumann (2015). The 1-in-100-year flood is one with a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year.
61. Glacial isostatic rebound (see glossary); McGuire (2012).
62. Gautier et al. (2009).
64. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010).
65. Miller et al. (2012).
2. ICE AFLOAT—ICE SHELVES, ICEBERGS, AND SEA ICE
2. Barry and Gan (2011), pp. 278–279.
3. National Snow & Ice Data Center, “Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapses in Antarctica,” March 18, 2002, http://nsidc.org/news/press/larsen_B/2002.html (updated March 21, 2002). The ice slab was 220 meters (720 feet) thick and ~3,250 square kilometers (1,255 square miles) in area.
4. Rignot et al. (2004); Scambos et al. (2004).
5. Khazendar et al. (2015).
7. Rebesco et al. (2014).
8. Holland et al. (2015).
9. Hogg and Gudmundsson (2017); Viñas (2017).
12. Paolo et al. (2015). See also chap. 6, “Ice Shelves in Trouble.”
13. Quoted in Fox (2012).
14. Ilulissat, in Greenlandic; An et al. (2017).
16. Joughin et al. (2014).
18. McGrath et al. (2013).
19. Steig (2016); Bromwich et al. (2014).
20. Cook and Vaughan (2010).
21. Fox (2012). Note that the −9°C refers to the average annual temperature threshold, whereas the 0°C refers to the average summer temperature line.
22. Davies (2017); Fox (2012); Qiu (2013); Scambos et al. (2004).
23. MacGregor et al. (2012).
24. Alley et al. (2015); Schmidtko et al. (2014).
26. Depoorter et al. (2013); Rignot et al. (2013).
27. Rignot et al. (2004); Scambos et al. (2004).
28. Shepherd et al. (2012).
29. Favier et al. (2014).
30. Mercer (1978); Joughin and Alley (2011); Joughin et al. (2012).
31. Straneo and Heimbach (2013); Joughin et al. (2012).
32. Joughin et al. (2012); Joughin et al. (2014).
34. Matilsky and Duwadi (2008).
35. Matilsky and Duwadi (2008).
40. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 291.
41. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 293; Diemand (2001/2008), p. 1262.
42. Wadhams (2013); Barry and Gan (2011), p. 293.
43. Diemand (2001/2008), p. 1262.
44. Very large icebergs may extend into subzero water at depth, due to the lowering of the freezing point with salinity.
45. Diemand (2001/2008), p. 1261.
47. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 237.
48. Serreze and Stroeve (2015).
49. Pistone et al. (2014).
50. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017).
52. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017); Stroeve et al. (2014).
54. National Snow & Ice Data Center, “2018 Winter Arctic Sea Ice: Bering Down,” April 4, 2018, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/04/2018-winter-arctic-sea-ice-bering-down/ (accessed April 24, 2018); National Snow & Ice Data Center, “Arctic Sea Ice Maximum at Second Lowest in the Satellite Record,” March 23, 2018, https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-second-lowest-satellite-record (accessed April 24, 2018). The Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent was 14.5 million square kilometers (5.6 million square miles) on March 17, 2018, as compared with the record lowest maximum of 14.4 square kilometers (5.6 million square miles) set on March 7, 2017.
55. Serreze and Stroeve (2015).
56. Perovich et al. (2016).
57. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017).
58. Perovich et al. (2014).
59. Stroeve et al. (2014).
60. Pithan and Mauritsen (2014).
61. Stroeve et al. (2014).
62. Serreze and Stroeve (2015).
64. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017); Overland and Wang (2013).
66. Cohen et al. (2014); Masters (2014); Francis and Vavrus (2012).
67. Screen and Simmonds (2014); Cohen et al. (2014).
69. Bintanja et al. (2013).
70. Depoorter et al. (2013); Rignot (2013); Pritchard et al. (2012).
71. Holland and Kwok (2012).
3. IMPERMANENT PERMAFROST
2. Kramer (2008); Larmer (2013).
3. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 167; Osterkamp and Burn (2002).
5. Péwé (2014); see glossary.
6. Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P), https://gtnp.arcticportal.org/ (accessed October 10, 2017); Romanovsky et al. (2010). Ground temperatures are measured at the depth of zero annual amplitude.
7. Lachenbruch and Marshall (1986).
9. The reason why water, unlike most liquids, expands upon freezing is explained in chapter 1.
10. As in congelation sea ice (see chap. 2), ice grows vertically with its c-axis oriented horizontally (Corte [1969]). Maximum growth occurs in the downward direction perpendicular to c (i.e., along the a-axis).
11. For a fuller discussion on ice lens formation and frost heaving, see, e.g., Davis (2001), pp. 67–95, and Rempel (2010).
12. Davis (2001), p. 110.
13. Geologists call this type of igneous intrusion a laccolith.
14. Davis (2001), pp. 121–131.
15. Karst topography, a landscape in limestone or dolomite riddled by subsurface caves, disappearing streams, sinkholes, and underground drainage, was named after a region between Slovenia and Italy.
16. Grosse et al. (2013), section 8.21.3.
17. Grosse et al. (2013), section 8.21.6. Oriented lakes may also form by alignment along faults or joints in rocks, or along contacts between different rock or soil types.
19. Quoted in Walker (2007).
21. Romanovsky et al. (2010); Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), section 4.7.2.1. Permafrost temperature is measured at the depth of zero amplitude (around 20 meters below the surface).
22. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), section 4.7.2.2.
23. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), section 4.7.2.2; Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2011), section 5.3.2.1.2.
26. Avis et al. (2011). See also appendix A.
31. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, SWIPA (2011), chap. 5, section 5.3.2.5.
33. Barnhart et al. (2014); Lantuit et al. (2012); Overeem et al. (2011).
35. Barnhart et al. (2014).
36. Jones et al. (2009); Lantuit et al. (2012); Barnhart et al. (2014).
38. Gornitz (2013). See chapter 9 of this book for further discussion of the impacts on Arctic communities.
39. Schuur et al. (2015).
41. Whiteman et al. (2013).
42. Brewer (2014); Shakhova et al. (2014).
43. Brewer (2014); Shakhova et al. (2014); Anthony et al. (2012); Vonk et al. (2012).
44. Anthony et al. (2012); Anthony et al. (2014); Anthony et al. (2016).
45. Sobek (2014); Anthony et al. (2014).
46. Anthony et al. (2014).
50. Olefeldt et al. (2016).
51. Anthony et al. (2012); Anthony et al. (2016).
52. Treat and Frolking (2013).
54. Schuur (2016); Schuur et al. (2015).
56. Gao et al. (2013). However, they did not consider greenhouse gas emissions from thermokarst or from offshore gas hydrates.
57. Thornton and Crill (2015).
58. Shakhova et al. (2010).
59. Ruppel and Kessler (2017).
60. The base of the methane hydrate stability zone appears on seismic reflection profiles as a “bottom-simulating reflector,” or BSR, which parallels the seafloor bathymetry, not the lithology or stratigraphy.
61. Maslin et al. (2010). Around 8,200 years ago, a massive underwater avalanche of loose sediment charged with methane gas and water cascaded abruptly down the flanks of the continental shelf and slope off the coast of Norway. The Storegga slide, one of the largest known submarine landslides, unleashed some 2,500–3,500 cubic kilometers of debris, spread over 9,500 square kilometers. It also triggered a devastating tsunami that inundated the coasts of northeastern Scotland and western Norway and dumped marine deposits up to 20 meters above sea level in the Shetland Islands. The submarine landslide and associated release of confined methane may have been triggered by icequakes resulting from glacial rebound after the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (see chap. 5).
62. Talling et al. (2014).
63. Shakhova et al. (2010); Shakova et al. (2014); Kort et al. (2012).
64. Thornton and Crill (2015).
65. Ruppel and Kessler (2017).
4. DARKENING MOUNTAINS—DISAPPEARING GLACIERS
1. Muir, J. (1902), as quoted by Molnia et al. (2008), p. K134.
5. Due to local factors, for example, warm moist air from the Pacific Ocean, local microclimates, and lower mountain elevations than farther north.
6. Gardner et al. (2013).
7. Dyurgerov and Meier, in Williams and Ferrigno (2012).
8. Radic et al. (2014; table 1); Grinsted (2013).
9. Benn and Evans (2010), p. 80; Barry and Gan (2011), p. 92.
10. Jacka (2007), p. 507; Barry and Gan (2011), p. 104. Glide planes represent planes of weakness within ice crystals that slip more readily under pressure. They lie perpendicular to the c-axes, which tend also to be the vertical direction in a glacier. Alignment of ice crystals with this orientation imparts a characteristic crystal fabric. See also figure 1.2 and box 2.1 regarding the crystal structure of ice.
12. Bakke and Nesje (2014).
13. Jewelers’ rouge used to polish metals is finely powdered hematite, or iron oxide, Fe2O3. Its hardness (5–6 on the Mohs scale, where talc = 1 and diamond = 10) is somewhat less than that of most typical rock-forming minerals (Mohs hardness 6–7).
14. Benn and Evans (2010), pp. 62–64.
15. Benn and Evans (2010), p. 66.
16. Benn and Evans (2010), pp. 65–66.
17. Benn and Evans (2010), pp. 68–74; Chu (2014), pp. 33–37.
18. Benn and Evans (2010), pp. 77–78.
19. Jiskoot (2011a), p. 250.
21. Jiskoot (2011a), p. 248.
23. Benn and Evans (2010), p. 116.
24. Jiskoot (2011a), pp. 248–250.
25. Jiskoot (2011a), pp. 248–250.
26. Karpilo Jr. (2009), pp. 153–156.
27. Jiskoot (2011b), p. 416; Barry and Gan (2011), p. 107.
29. Benn and Evans (2010), pp. 169–186; Warren (2014), pp. 105–106.
30. O’Leary and Christoffersen (2013).
31. Molnia (2007); Joughin et al. (2014); Nick et al. (2009). See also chapter 2.
32. Scambos et al. (2009). Ice shelves, as noted in chapter 2, are floating extensions of glaciers or ice sheets.
33. Benn and Evans (2010), pp. 38–39; Karpilo Jr. (2009). Ice sheet cores also preserve important archives of past climates, including information on regional temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation patterns, and global atmospheric composition (see chap. 7).
35. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 99.
36. Appendix B briefly describes some important satellite instruments used to monitor the cryosphere. An in-depth review of principles of remote sensing used in glacier and cryosphere studies is given by Tedesco, ed. (2015) and Pellikka and Rees (2010).
37. Raup et al. (2015), p. 133.
38. Raup and Kargel (2012), p. A249.
39. Appendix B; Pellikka and Rees (2010), pp. 16–18.
41. Boening et al. (2012). But the upward sea level trend resumed soon thereafter.
43. Gardner et al. (2013).
44. Raup et al. (2015), p. 141, briefly summarizes how this is accomplished.
45. Mouginot et al. (2014); Rignot et al. (2014).
46. Williams and Ferrigno (2012). Individual chapters cover different glacier regions; e.g., for Alaska, chapter K, see Molnia et al. (2008).
48. Raup and Kargel (2012), pp. 247–260.
49. E.g., Molnia et al. (2008) for Alaska.
50. Pfeffer et al. (2014). Grinsted (2013) is an example of a study that derives global glacier volume from data in RGI, WGI, and GLIMS.
53. Nussbaumer et al. (2007).
54. Nussbaumer et al. (2007).
55. Zemp et al. (2008). However, natural climate cycles, such as the decades-long Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which affects climate patterns over much of the Northern Hemisphere, cause significant variations in glacier mass balance. Enhanced Alpine glacier melting, especially since the 1980s, is associated with an increasing AMO index (Huss et al., 2010).
56. Thompson et al. (2009).
57. Thompson et al. (2011).
58. Mouginot and Rignot (2015); Davies and Glasser (2012).
59. Edward Wong, “Chinese Glacier’s Retreat Signals Trouble for Asian Water Supply,” New York Times, December 9, 2015.
60. See also Immerzeel et al. (2010).
62. Brun et al. (2017); Maurer et al. (2016); Bolch et al. (2012); Kääb et al. (2012).
64. Wong, “Chinese Glacier’s Retreat.”
66. Kraaijenbrink et al. (2017).
67. Slangen et al. (2017), their table 1, including peripheral glaciers; see also appendix A.
71. Brun et al. (2017); Farinotti (2017).
72. Kapnick et al. (2014); Bolch et al. (2012).
73. Kraaijenbrink et al. (2017).
5. THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET
1. These paleoclimate proxies include tiny marine organisms called foraminifera, sedimentary evidence from marine cores, and oxygen isotope data from Greenland ice cores.
5. McGrath et al. (2013). “Ablation” and “equilibrium line altitude” are defined in chapter 4 and the glossary.
6. Tedesco et al. (2017).
8. Nettles and Ekström (2010).
9. Quote from Huntford (1997).
10. Bamber et al. (2013); Morlighem et al. (2014, 2017).
12. Assuming all melted ice is spread out evenly over the ocean. See table 1.1, footnote 2 for conversion of ice mass to sea level rise.
13. Kjeldsen et al. (2015); Khan et al. (2014); Kjaer et al. (2012).
14. Velicogna et al. (2014); Moon et al. (2012).
15. Kjaer et al. (2012); box 5.1.
16. Smith (2012); Bjørk (2012).
17. Helm et al. (2014), table 4; Csatho et al. (2014).
18. Csatho et al. (2014); Moon et al. (2012).
23. Leeson et al. (2014).
24. Poinar et al. (2015).
27. Joughin, Smith, Sheam et al. (2014).
28. A potential instability in a marine-terminating glacier or ice stream where the grounding line rests below sea level and the submarine topography slopes landward (see glossary).
29. An et al. (2017); Joughin, Smith, Sheam et al. (2014).
31. Morlighem et al. (2014).
32. Morlighem et al. (2014).
33. The North Atlantic Current is the northern extension of the Gulf Stream. Joughin et al. (2012); Straneo and Heimbach (2013).
34. Holland et al. (2008).
35. Joughin et al. (2012); Straneo and Heimbach (2013).
36. Morlighem et al. (2017); Rignot et al. (2015).
37. Krinner and Durand (2012).
38. Nettles and Ekstrøm (2010).
39. Murray et al. (2015); Nettles and Ekström (2010).
41. Straneo and Heimbach (2013).
42. Straneo and Heimbach (2013).
44. Harper et al. (2012); Harper (2014); Forster et al. (2014).
45. Forster et al. (2014).
46. Poinar et al. (2017).
48. Willis et al. (2015).
50. Stevens et al. (2015).
51. Stevens et al. (2015); Poinar et al. (2015).
56. Sundal et al. (2011).
62. Morlighem et al. (2014).
63. Morlighem et al. (2014).
64. Morlighem et al. (2017).
65. Cooper et al. (2016).
66. Rogozhina et al. (2016). Iceland is located on the mid-Atlantic Ridge which separates the North American plate from the Eurasian plate. According to plate tectonic theory, the midocean ridge system, which encircles the globe, is where magma ascends from the upper mantle, which helps drive the plates apart. Furthermore, Iceland sits atop a long-lived “hot spot” of anomalously warm magma that has built up the island over time. Tens of millions of years ago Greenland lay over the Icelandic hot spot, but has subsequently drifted northwestward as the plates have spread apart.
68. E.g., Stibal et al. (2017); Tedesco et al. (2016); Howat et al. (2013).
69. Leeson et al. (2014).
70. Tedesco et al. (2016).
71. Wientjes et al. (2011).
6. ANTARCTICA: THE GIANT ICE LOCKER
2. This portion of the treaty is up for review in 2048. A new race to the South Pole may then unfold, as nations compete for increasingly scarce critical mineral resources and as technological advances and improving climate conditions make resource exploitation there more feasible (more in chap. 9). S. Romero, “Array of Players Joining Race for Space at Bottom of the World,” New York Times, December 30, 2015.
6. Benn and Evans (2010), p. 210.
8. Barry and Gan (2011), pp. 278–279.
13. Fretwell et al. (2013).
14. Mount Erebus and Mount Terror were named after the ships on Captain Franklin’s ill-fated Arctic expedition (see chaps. 1 and 2). Wikipedia, “Mount Erebus,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Erebus (last modified September 20, 2018).
15. Van Wyk de Vries et al. (2017).
17. Schroeder et al. (2014).
18. Some dispute this early date for the first cyanobacteria, placing their origin closer to the “Great Oxidation Event” around 2.5 billion years ago, when atmospheric oxygen levels began to rise (e.g., Rasmussen et al., 2008).
20. Ehlmann and Edwards (2014). The discovery of perchlorate in the soils of the Dry Valleys also reinforces the resemblance to Mars. Perchlorate has been found near the South Pole of Mars and by the Curiosity rover now exploring the Gale Crater (Tamparri et al., 2010; King (2015).
23. Shtarkman et al. (2013).
24. Wright and Siegert (2012).
25. Rignot et al. (2011).
26. Bell (2008a); Bell (2008b).
27. Wright and Siegert (2012).
28. Wingham et al. (2006).
30. Tulaczyk and Hossainzadeh (2011); Bell et al. (2011).
31. Zwally et al. (2015).
33. Altimetry: McMillan et al. (2014); Zwally et al. (2015). GRACE gravimetry: Sasgen et al. (2013); Harig and Simons (2015); table 6.1; also chap. 4, appendix B.
34. See also chapter 2; Joughin and Alley (2011); Joughin et al. (2012); Alley et al. (2015).
35. Mouginot et al. (2014).
36. Sutterley et al (2014).
38. Rignot et al. (2014).
39. Joughin et al. (2014).
40. Favier et al. (2014); Joughin, Smith, and Medley (2014).
41. Konrad et al. (2018).
42. Christie et al. (2016). The grounding line of the ice stream feeding the Venable Ice Shelf has held fast, in spite of considerable ice shelf thinning since the 1990s. This shelf may be stuck on underwater “pinning points” that act as brakes on ice motion.
43. Feldmann and Levermann (2015). The marine-based portion of the WAIS is that grounded below present sea level.
44. Joughin, Smith, and Medley (2014).
46. Whereby a rapidly eroding stream cuts back across the drainage divide and captures the flow of another stream.
47. Feldmann and Levermann (2015).
48. Millan et al. (2017).
49. Paolo et al. (2015); Rignot et al. (2013, 2014); Depoorter et al. (2013); Pritchard et al. (2012).
50. Rignot et al. (2013); Depoorter et al. (2013).
51. See glossary; chap. 2, “Undermining Ice Shelves.”
52. Schmidtko et al. (2014).
53. Pollard et al. (2015).
54. MacGregor et al. (2012); Pollard et al. (2015).
56. Bell et al. (2017); Kingslake et al. (2017).
57. Pritchard et al. (2012).
58. Thinning ice shelves: Pritchard et al. (2012); Rignot et al. (2013); Depoorter et al. (2013); Paolo et al. (2015). Grounding line retreat and ice discharge: Konrad et al. (2018); Mouginot et al. (2014); Rignot et al. (2014); Joughin, Smith, and Medley (2014); Favier et al. (2014); Sutterley et al. (2014).
60. Jamieson et al. (2012).
64. Barry and Gan (2011), p. 2. The total mass of ice on the WAIS is equivalent to a ~5-meter SLR. The oft-cited statement that complete melting of the WAIS would raise sea level by ~3.3 meters refers to the ice mass subject to MISI. Around 1.8 meters SLR equivalent would survive any likely warming event.
65. Rignot et al. (2013); Pritchard et al. (2012); Paolo et al. (2015).
67. Fretwell (2015); Greenbaum et al. (2015).
68. Rintoul et al. (2016).
69. Greenbaum et al. (2015).
71. Mengel and Levermann (2014).
7. FROM GREENHOUSE TO ICEHOUSE
1. Eberle and Greenwood (2012).
2. DeConto et al. (2008); Galeotti et al. (2016).
3. DeConto et al. (2008); Galeotti et al. (2016).
6. Salzmann et al. (2016).
8. Araucariaceae are a family of tall evergreen coniferous trees with spirally arranged needles or broad, flat leaves. They generally occur in Southern Hemisphere tropical or semitropical forests, although some species are also found in drier scrubland. More familiar examples include the monkey puzzle tree and Norfolk Island pine. The colorful 200-million-year-old petrified logs of Petrified Forest National Park in northern Arizona were members of a related, now-extinct species.
10. Rovere et al. (2014); Rowley et al. (2013); Miller et al. (2012). (Estimates range between 10 and 30 meters higher than present sea levels.)
11. See glossary; also discussion in chapter 6, under “Maybe Not So Fast!”
12. Tibet stays cool in summer because of its high elevation. Yet it remains the warmest spot on Earth at that altitude. This warm spot sets up a continent-scale circulation akin to land and sea breezes. During summer, the zone of highest mean surface temperatures shifts north. Moisture from the Indian Ocean replaces the hot, dry air over the Tibetan plateau. As the moist air approaches the Himalayas, it rises, cools, and falls as rain over India and along the southern slopes of the Himalayas. By the time the monsoon passes over this topographic barrier, the air has dried out, leaving Tibet a near-desert. The uplift of the Himalayas has intensified this circulation pattern.
13. Raymo and Ruddiman (1992).
14. Kent and Muttoni (2013).
15. Livermore et al. (2007).
16. Stickley et al. (2004); Lyle et al. (2007).
17. Haug et al. (2004); O’Dea et al. (2016).
18. Lear and Lunt (2016).
19. Dutton et al. (2015); Foster and Rohling (2013); Grant et al. (2012).
20. DeConto et al. (2008); Galeotti et al. (2016).
21. Triparti et al. (2009).
22. Schneider and Schneider (2010).
24. DeConto et al. (2008).
26. The half-life of 10Be is 1.4 million years, the time needed for half a given quantity of the isotope to decay. (The presumed age of the oldest ice is around two half-lives of 10Be.)
28. Steig and Wolfe (2008).
29. Dutton et al. (2015); Grant et al. (2012); Rohling et al. (2009).
31. Maslin and Brierley (2015).
33. Galeotti et al. (2016).
36. Dutton et al. (2015).
37. Raymo and Mitrovica (2012).
39. The volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet is ~7 meters (23 feet) of sea level equivalent. Melting of the entire WAIS would raise sea level by ~5 meters (16 feet). The portion of WAIS ice grounded below sea level and subject to the marine ice sheet instability would yield only ~3.3 (11 feet) meters.
40. Dutton et al. (2015); Kopp et al. (2009), after correcting for glacial isostatic, gravitational, and rotational effects.
41. O’Leary et al. (2013).
42. Rohling et al. (2008).
43. Barlow et al. (2018).
44. Colville et al. (2011).
45. Quoted in Schiermeier (2013).
46. MacGregor et al. (2015).
47. NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Core Drilling) (2013); Colville et al. (2011); Kopp et al. (2009).
48. Carlson and Clark (2012).
49. Mackintosh et al. (2011).
51. Hillenbrand et al. (2013).
53. Carlson and Clark (2012); Deschamps et al. (2012).
55. Carlson and Clark (2012); Li et al. (2012).
8. RETURN TO THE GREENHOUSE
1. The percentage of freshwater may be closer to 77 percent (Barry and Gan, 2011, p. 3).
3. Archer and Brovkin (2008).
4. National Snow & Ice Data Center, “2017 Ushers In Record Low Extent,” February 7, 2017, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/02/2017-ushers-in-record-low-extent/ (accessed February 17, 2017); Andrea Thompson, “Sea Ice Hits Record Lows at Both Poles,” Scientific American, February 13, 2017, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-ice-hits-record-lows-at-both-poles/ (accessed February 20, 2017); Scott Sutherland, “North Pole Temps Spiked by Nearly 30 Celsius Last Week,” The Weather Network, February 13, 2017, https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/arctic-storms-bring-another-winter-heatwave-to-north-pole/79190 (accessed February 20, 2017).
5. Hogg and Gudmundsson (2017); Viñas (2017).
7. DeConto and Pollard (2016); Pollard et al. (2015).
9. Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009); Rahmstorf (2007).
10. Joughin, Smith, and Medley (2014).
11. Golledge et al. (2015); Sutter et al. (2016).
12. Feldmann and Levermann (2015).
15. Robinson et al. (2012).
16. Golledge et al. (2015).
17. DeConto and Pollard (2016).
19. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013a), chap. 12, box 12.2, p. 1110.
21. NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, “NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally,” January 18, 2017, https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20170118/ (accessed February 15, 2017). While not record-setting, 2018 was the fourth warmest in the global historic record. G. A. Schmidt and D. Arndt, “NOAA/NASA Annual Global Analysis for 2018,” https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20190206/201902briefing.pdf (accessed February 7, 2019).
22. On February 8, 2017, New York City basked in unseasonable, record-shattering, mild 60°–65°F weather; by early the next morning, temperatures had plunged to the upper 20s Fahrenheit and 8–12 inches of snow covered the city.
25. Hansen et al. (2008). The 2°C limit has been urged by many climate scientists, based on anticipated impacts, and has been adopted by the UNFCCC as a target in the current Paris Agreement.
26. For starters, see chapter 10 in Gornitz (2013).
27. Such a lengthy safe storage period—almost the duration of the Holocene, the epoch following the last ice age—is needed to cool down the radioactive waste products.
28. See, for example, Rosenzweig et al. (2018) and case studies therein.
9. THE IMPORTANCE OF ICE
2. National Snow & Ice Data Center, “2017 Ushers In Record Low Extent,” February 7, 2017, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/02/2017-ushers-in-record-low-extent/ (accessed February 17, 2017); Scott Sutherland, “North Pole Temps Spiked by Nearly 30 Celsius Last Week,” The Weather Network, February 13, 2017, https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/arctic-storms-bring-another-winter-heatwave-to-north-pole/79190 (accessed February 20, 2017).
6. Mele and Victor (2016); Goode (2016).
10. National Snow & Ice Data Center, “Arctic Sea Ice Maximum at Second Lowest in the Satellite Record,” March 23, 2018, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/03/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-second-lowest/ (accessed April 24, 2018); National Snow & Ice Data Center, “Arctic Sea Ice Maximum at Record Low for Third Straight Year,” March 22, 2017, https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-maximum-record-low-third-straight-year/ (accessed May 25, 2017); National Snow & Ice Data Center, “2016 Ties with 2007 for Second Lowest Arctic Sea Ice Minimum,” September 16, 2016, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/09/2016-ties-with-2007-for-second-lowest-arctic-sea-ice-minimum/ (accessed September 16, 2016).
11. “Arctic Sea Ice Maximum at Second Lowest in the Satellite Record.”
13. E.g., Pongracz et al. (2017).
15. Quoted in Rosen (2017).
16. United Nations Environment Programme (2007).
17. Ehrlich (2010), pp. 30, 69.
18. Ehrlich (2010), pp. 216, 241.
21. Miller and Ruiz (2014).
22. Quoted in Rosen (2017).
23. Cohen et al. (2014); Masters (2014).
24. Overland et al. (2016).
25. Gillis and Fountain (2016); Vaidyanathan and Patterson (2015).
26. Gautier et al. (2009).
28. Shigley et al. (2016).
29. Shigley et al. (2016).
31. Gautier et al. (2009).
33. Glasby and Voytekhovshy (2009).
35. Kingsley, “When Coal Leaves Center Stage in Longyearbyen.” See also Wikipedia, “Natural Resources of the Arctic.”
37. Wikipedia, “Mary River Mine,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_River_Mine (last modified September 28, 2018); Baffinland, “Who We Are,” http://www.baffinland.com/about-us/who-we-are/?lang=en; Nick Murray, “Baffinland Iron Mines’ Phase 2 Plan Gets Sent Back to Nunavut Planning Commission,” CBC News, December 20, 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/nirb-baffinland-phase-2-planning-commission-1.3904189 (accessed June 21, 2017).
41. Av Mieke Coppes, “No More Crystal Serenity in the Northwest Passage,” High North News, December 13, 2017, http://www.highnorthnews.com/no-more-crystal-serenity-in-the-northwest-passage/ (accessed March 5, 2018); Jane George, “Norwegian Cruise Company Plans Northwest Passage Transit with Hybrid Vessel,” Nunatsiaq News, December 11, 2017, http://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/65674norwegian_cruise_company_plans_nw_passage_transit_with_hybrid_vessel/ (accessed March 5, 2018).
42. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (2017); Overland and Wang (2013).
44. Miller and Ruiz (2014).
46. Clearly, it’s much more complex than that. Chapter 4 discusses the glacial retreat more fully.
48. Saavedra et al. (2018).
49. Navab (2011); Bradley et al. (2006).
52. Bolch (2017); Pritchard (2017).
53. Immerzeel et al. (2010).
54. Huss and Hock (2018); Kraaijenbrink et al. (2017); Immerzeel et al (2010).
55. Huss and Hock (2018); Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017.
56. Huss and Hock (2018); appendix A.
57. Huss and Hock (2018); appendix A.
64. Fischer et al. (2014).
66. Huggel et al. (2012); Tagliabue (2013).
68. Clague et al. (2012).
69. McGuire (2012), p. 245.
70. Huggel et al. (2012); Tagliabue (2013).
73. McGuire (2012), p. 264. See also Nettles and Ekström (2010), cited in chap. 5.
74. Van Wyk de Vries et al. (2017); Schroeder et al. (2014).
75. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013a), chap. 13, table 13.5, p. 1182 (RCP8.5, 2081–2100). See appendix A for explanation of RCP scenarios.
76. DeConto and Pollard (2016). See also Pollard et al. (2015).
77. Carbognin et al. (2009).
79. Strauss et al. (2016).
82. Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (2013).
83. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2017).
84. Neumann et al. (2015).
87. Morton et al. (2004).
88. Gornitz (2013), chap. 8, pp. 188–190.
89. Gornitz (2013), chap. 9.
90. E.g., Aerts et al. (2009).
91. Rotterdam Climate Initiative (2010).
93. When Canal Street lived up to its name. Originally a “sluggish stream,” it became a ditch to drain local swamps. It soon turned into a stinking sewer, was covered, and by 1820, Canal Street was built over it. Wikipedia, “Canal Street (Manhattan),” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canal_Street_(Manhattan) (last modified July 27, 2018; accessed July 27, 2017).
94. Nordenson et al. (2010).
96. Mele and Victor (2016).
98. De Melker and Saltzman (2016).
99. Green (2016); Hino et al. (2017).
102. Polar night affects all areas north of the polar circle (66.5°N) to some extent. The duration of polar night increases with latitude, reaching 6 months of the year at the North Pole. But conversely, the pole experiences six months of sunlight during the second half of the year. Farther south, there may be several hours of dim twilight, even when the sun lies below the horizon, because of the way the atmosphere bends the rays of light.
APPENDIX A. ANTICIPATING FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE
1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013a).
2. A negative surface mass balance (SMB) implies that ice losses (surface melting, runoff, and sublimation [ice to water vapor]) exceed accumulation (snowfall). See glossary.
APPENDIX B. EYES IN THE SKY—MONITORING THE CRYOSPHERE FROM ABOVE
5. Raup and Kargel (2012), p. A249.
11. NASA, “Understanding Sea Level; Key Indicators; Global Mean Sea Level,” https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/key-indicators/global-mean-sea-level (covers January 1993 to October 9, 2017; accessed January 5, 2018); CNES/Aviso+, “Mean Sea Level Rise,” https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level.html (sea level rise plot covers January 5, 1993, to November 17, 2017; accessed February 5, 2018).