ILLUSTRATIONS

Figure 1. Are tests for Down’s syndrome justified?

Figure 2. Monthly gold prices, January 1971 to February 1974

Figure 3. Real gold prices (constant 2006 dollars)

Figure 4. Actual Dow Jones Industrial Average, January 1920 to January 2010

Figure 5. DJIA and NASDAQ, June 1997 to March 2003

Figure 6. NASDAQ and Amazon, June 1997 to March 2003

Figure 7. Real copper prices (constant 2007 dollars)

Figure 8. Real wages/salaries in constant 2006 pounds, UK

Figure 9. Cumulative gains/losses when a coin is flipped 100 times (each bet €500)

Figure 10. S&P 500, January 2007 to January 2008

Figure 11. Heights of 353 male MBA students

Figure 12. Sales of Acme

Figure 13. Sales of Acme (with trend lines)

Figure 14. Sales of Acme (with single exponential smoothing)

Figure 15. DJIA and NASDAQ: relative monthly values starting May 1924 and October 1994

Figure 16. Klaus’s journey to work

Figure 17. Subway and coconut uncertainty

Figure 18. Life satisfaction vs. per capita gross domestic product (GDP)

Figure 19. Predictions for 2000 made a century earlier