1. Yosser Hughes was a character in a 1980s BBC sitcom, The Boys from the Blackstuff. Yosser lost his job and his wife, struggled to keep his kids, and was driven to the edge of sanity in his unsuccessful quest to find another job, any job. People will do almost anything to get a decent job.
2. http://www.gallup.com/corporate/212381/who-we-are.aspx.
3. http://news.gallup.com/poll/189068/bls-unemployment-seasonally-adjusted.aspx.aspx.
4. I was once asked to speak at a conference on “the labor process,” which the organizers told me I was a renowned expert in. I had no idea what it was but was relieved to discover it was the study of work!
5. Or “ready for the knacker’s yard.”
6. Galbraith once asked at the bookshop at the old LaGuardia terminal in New York if they carried The Great Crash, 1929 by J. K. Galbraith. The lady behind the counter told him it was “not a book you can sell in an airport.”
7. http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html.
8. At the time of writing the Fed held $4.2 trillion in assets while the ECB held $5.4 trillion and the Bank of Japan $4 trillion. See “Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets,” Yardeni Research, August 25, 2018, www.yardeni.com.
9. F. B. Ahmad, L. M. Rossen, M. R. Spencer, M. Warner, and P. Sutton, “Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts,” National Center for Health Statistics, 2018.
10. Margot Sanger-Katz, “Bleak New Estimates in Drug Epidemic: A Record 72,000 Overdose Deaths in 2017,” New York Times, August 15, 2018.
11. https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/indicators-statistics/economic-databases/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/time-series_en.
12. See also Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, “There’s a Worrying Disconnect between How Fed Officials Look at the Economy and the Way Workers Experience It,” Business Insider, May 23, 2018.
1. Glenn Kessler, “Donald Trump Still Does Not Understand the Unemployment Rate,” Washington Post, December 12, 2016.
2. Louis Jacobson, “Donald Trump Says U.S. Has 93 Million People ‘Out of Work,’ but That’s Way Too High,” Politifact.com, August 31, 2015.
3. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor is the principal federal agency responsible for measuring labor market activity, working conditions, and price changes in the economy.
4. Alana Semuels, “It’s Not about the Economy,” Atlantic, December 27, 2016.
5. Chris Isadore, “Jack Welch Questions Jobs Numbers,” CNN Money, October 5, 2012.
6. Al Weaver, “Don Blankenship Dismisses Trump: ‘We Still Expect to Win,’” Washington Examiner, May 7, 2018.
7. Larry Mishel, “The Outrageous Attack on the BLS,” EPI blog, October 5, 2012, https://www.epi.org/blog/outrageous-attack-bls/.
8. https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2791.
9. Kathryn Vasel, “Wanted: 1,000 New Delta Flight Attendants,” CNN Money, October 23, 2017.
10. Melody Simmons, “Thousands Wait to Apply for 1,200 New Amazon Jobs in Baltimore,” Baltimore Business Journal, August 2, 2017.
11. Aaron Weiner, “Applications Pour in for D.C. Walmart Jobs,” Washington City Paper, October 14, 2013.
12. The BLS also produces an estimate of (non-farm) employment based on an establishment survey. In April 2018 the estimate was 148,230,000. The numbers from the individual surveys are larger because they have a more expansive scope than the establishment survey and include self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, and private household workers, who are excluded by the establishment survey.
13. See Hyclak, Johnes, and Thornton 2017, 76.
14. I should note personal connections in that Sir David Metcalf was my PhD thesis external examiner and I replaced Sir Steve Nickell on the MPC.
15. Quoted in Harrison Jacobs, “The Revenge of the ‘Oxy Electorate’ Helped Fuel Trump’s Election Upset,” Business Insider, November 23, 2016.
16. Kathleen Frydl, “The Oxy Electorate: A Scourge of Addiction and Death Siloed in Fly-over Country,” www.medium.com, November 16, 2016.
17. Mark Muro and Sifan Liu, “Another Clinton-Trump Divide: High Output America vs. Low Output America,” Brookings, November 29, 2016.
18. Nicholas Eberstadt, “Our Miserable 21st Century,” Commentary, February 15, 2017.
19. Blanchflower and Oswald 1999.
20. Office for National Statistics, “Personal Well-Being in the UK: January to December 2017,” May 17, 2018, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/measuringnationalwellbeing/januarytodecember2017.
21. “The Five Giants,” in Beveridge at 70 (London: Fabian Society, 2012).
22. Stephen Armstrong, “Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor and Idleness: Are Bev-eridge’s Five Evils Back?” Guardian, October 10, 2017; Armstrong 2017.
23. Armstrong, “Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor and Idleness”; Armstrong 2017.
24. Rowena Mason, “Corbyn Urges Benefits Rethink and End to 55p-a-Minute Helpline Rate,” Guardian, October 11, 2017.
25. Joe Vesey-Byrne, “A Tory Cabinet Minister’s Defence of the 55p per Minute Universal Credit Helpline Is Horrendous,” Independent, October 12, 2017; Mike Sivier, “Theresa May and the 55p-per-Minute Miscalculation,” Vox Political, October 12, 2017.
26. Office for National Statistics, “Contracts That Do Not Guarantee a Minimum Number of Hours: April 2018,” April 23, 2018, https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/contractsthatdonotguaranteeaminimumnumberofhours/april2018.
27. United Nations Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner, “UN Poverty Expert Says UK Policies Inflict Unnecessary Misery,” November 16, 2018, https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=23884&LangID=E.
28. Chris Kirkham, “Percentage of Young Americans Living with Parents Rises to 75-Year High,” Wall Street Journal, December 21, 2016.
29. Isabelle Fraser, “The Rise of Generation Rent: Number of Young Homeowners Halved in the Last 20 Years,” Telegraph, December 22, 2016.
30. According to the BLS, in January 2017 there were 1,137,000 individuals who had been continuously unemployed for 52 weeks and over or 14 percent of the unemployed, down from 1,446,000 (17.4%) a year earlier. It reached a record high of 31.9 percent in 2011 Q2. Karen Kosanovich and E. T. Sherman, “Trends in Long Term Unemployment,” Spotlight on Statistics, BLS, March 2015, https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2015/long-term-unemployment/home.htm.
31. See Winkelmann and Winkelmann 1998; Clark and Oswald 1994; Frey and Stutzer 2002; and Ahn, García, and Jimeno 2004.
32. Linn, Sandifer, and Stein 1985; Frese and Mohr 1987; Jackson and Warr 1987; Banks and Jackson 1982; Darity and Goldsmith 1996; Goldsmith, Veum, and Darity 1996; Brenner and Mooney 1983.
33. Goldsmith, Veum, and Darity 1996.
34. Moser et al. 1987.
35. Martikainen and Valkonen 1996.
36. Voss et al. 2004.
37. See Platt 1984; Pritchard 1992; Blakely, Collings, and Atkinson 2003; Hamermesh and Soss 1974; Daly, Wilson, and Johnson 2008; and Barr et al. 2012.
38. Beale and Nethercott 1987; Iverson and Sabroe 1988; Mattiasson et al. 1990.
39. Arcaya et al. 2014; Falba et al. 2005; Hammarstrom and Janlert 1994.
40. Wang and Morin 2009.
41. Ellwood 1982.
42. Gregg and Tominey 2005.
43. Thornberry and Christensen 1984; Raphael and Winter-Ebmer 2001; Fougere, Kramarz, and Pouget 2006; Freeman 1999.
44. Fougere, Kramarz, and Pouget 2006.
45. Raphael and Winter-Ebmer 2001; Ihlanfeldt 2007. See CEA 2016 for a helpful summary of employment, wage and education policies, and crime reduction, from which these references are obtained.
46. Grogger 1998; Doyle, Ahmed, and Horn 1999.
47. Falk and Zweimüller 2005; Carmichael and Ward 2000, 2001.
1. Patrick Gillespie, “American Businesses Can’t Find Workers,” CNN Money, January 17, 2018.
2. Jennifer Levitz, “Perks for Plumbers: Hawaiian Vacations, Craft Beer and ‘a Lot of Zen’: The Tight Job Market Has Forced Plumbing Companies to Offer Silicon Valley—Style Benefits to Keep the Talent Happy,” Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2018.
3. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Occupational Employment and Wages—May 2017,” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ocwage.pdf.
4. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “The Beige Book,” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20181024.pdf.
5. The production and non-supervisory employee groups vary by industry. In service-providing industries, the data are collected for those who are not owners or who are not primarily employed to direct, supervise, or plan the work of others. In goods-producing industries, the data are collected for production employees in mining and logging and in manufacturing, and for construction employees in construction. Production and construction employees include working supervisors and group leaders who may be “in charge” of some employees but whose supervisory functions are only incidental to their regular work. The production employee/construction employee categories in goods-producing industries exclude employees not directly involved in production, such as managers, sales, and accounting personnel.
6. Each month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys approximately 146,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 623,000 individual work sites, to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls.
7. For details of the National Compensation Survey from which the ECI is collected, see https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/pdf/homch8.pdf.
8. Haroon Siddique, “A Million NHS Workers Agree to a Pay Rise Worth 6.5% over Three Years,” Guardian, June 8, 2018.
9. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/adhocs/009221annualsurveyofhoursandearningsashemeanregionaltimeseries1997to2018.
10. Quévat and Vignolles 2018.
11. Bourbeau and Fields 2017.
12. Statistics New Zealand, http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/income-and-work/employment_and_unemployment/labour-market-statistics-information-releases.aspx.
13. Australian Bureau of Statistics, “Labour Market Statistics, March 2017 Quarter,” May 3, 2017.
14. Statistics Netherlands, https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/en/dataset/82838eng/table?ts=1542313897166.
15. Michelle Lam, “Japan’s Wage Puzzle Still Unsolved,” TS Lombard Daily Note, January 17, 2017.
16. http://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/database/db-l/29/2911pe/2911pe.html.
17. U.S. Census Bureau, “Income and Poverty in the United States: 2015,” September 2016, https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2016/demo/p60-256.html.
18. Clarke et al. 2017.
19. Corlett 2016.
20. Blanchflower 2004, 2015b.
21. Office for National Statistics, “Measuring National Well-Being: Life in the UK: 2016,” table 7.1, September 22, 2016.
22. Office for National Statistics, “Household Disposable Income and Inequality,” UK reference tables.
23. The employment annual growth rates were simply taken from the ONS labor market release a01mar2018.xls, table 1. We used the data for January–March for Q1; April–June for Q2; July–September for Q3; and October–December for Q4. Output per worker was obtained from Office for National Statistics, “Time Series: Output per Worker: Whole Economy SA: Index 2016 = 100, UK,” https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/labourproductivity/timeseries/a4ym/prdy.
24. Office for National Statistics, “International Comparisons of UK Productivity (ICP), Final Estimates, 2015,” Statistical Bulletin, April 5, 2017.
25. Silvana Tenreyro, “The Fall in Productivity Growth: Causes and Implications” (Peston Lecture, Queen Mary University of London, January 15, 2018).
26. Rates were 2015 Q3 0.4%; 2015 Q4 -0.1%; 2016 Q1 0.3%; 2016 Q2 -0.5%; 2016 Q3 0.4%; 2016 Q4 0.9%; 2017 Q1 0.8%; 2017 Q2 0.8%; 2017 Q3 0.9%.
27. The 16+ employment rate in the United States in January 2008 was 62.9% versus 60.4% in January 2018. In contrast in the UK they were 60.4% and 60.9%, respectively, on these dates. BLS (www.bls.gov) and ONS (ONS.ac.uk) (Table a01oct2008.xls).
28. According to www.unionstats.gsu.edu, private-sector unionization rates in the United States in 2017 were 6.5%, down from 10.3% since 1995, versus, according to the ONS, 13.4% in the UK, down from 21.4% in 1995. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/616966/trade-union-membership-statistical-bulletin-2016-rev.pdf.
29. Mark Carney, “Prospects for the UK Labour Market,” September 6, 2014, https://www.bis.org/review/r140910a.pdf, p. 6.
30. Larry Elliott, “Interest Rates Will Stay Low for 20 Years, Says Bank of England Expert,” Guardian, August 9, 2018.
31. Andrew G. Haldane, “Pay Power,” October 10, 2018, https://www.bis.org/review/r181011f.pdf, p. 13; Chris Giles, “BoE Deputy Governor Warns on ‘False Dawn’ for Wages,” Financial Times, October 17, 2018.
32. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee July 26–27, 2016,” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20160727.pdf, p. 9.
33. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 30–31, 2018,” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20180131.pdf, p. 15.
34. Federal Reserve Press Release, January 30, 2019, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20190130a1.pdf.
35. Kumar and Orrenius 2015; Dent et al. 2014; Aaronson and Jordan 2014; Smith 2014; Higgins 2014.
36. https://www.workplaceoptions.com/workplaceoptionsoctober2013survey2-worklife/.
37. As noted by Isabel V. Sawhill and Christopher Pulliam, “Money Alone Doesn’t Buy Happiness, Work Does,” Brookings, November 5, 2018, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/11/05/money-alone-doesnt-buy-happiness-work-does/.
38. Ibid.; http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/10/09/emerging-and-developing-economies-much-more-optimistic-than-rich-countries-about-the-future/inequality-05/.
39. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017,” May 2018, https://www.federalreserve .gov/publications/files/2017-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201805.pdf.
40. Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, “There’s a Worrying Disconnect between How Fed Officials Look at the Economy and the Way Workers Experience It,” Business Insider, May 23, 2018.
41. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee May 1–2, 2018,” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20180502.pdf, p. 7.
42. Record of Meeting, Community Advisory Council and the Board of Governors, Friday, May 4, 2018, https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/files/cac-20180504.pdf, p. 10.
43. Ibid., 13.
44. The data and documentation for the Eurobarometer Surveys are available here: https://www.gesis.org/eurobarometer-data-service/survey-series/standard-special-eb/.
45. McGuinnity and Russell 2013; Bossert and D’Ambrosio 2016.
46. Smith, Stillman, and Craig 2013.
47. Reeves, McKee, and Stuckler 2014.
48. Rohde et al. 2016.
49. Kalil 2013.
1. “The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee,” http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html.
2. David Blanchflower, “And Next for Britain, the Semi-Slump,” Guardian, July 14, 2009.
3. David Blanchflower, “After the Crash: The Semi-Slump We’re in,” Guardian, November 8, 2011.
4. Editorial, “The Economy: Politicians and the Semi-Slump,” Guardian, September 10, 2009.
5. Lord Robert Skidelsky, “Economy: Budget Statement—Motion to Take Note Part of the Debate—in the House of Lords at 5:43 p.m. on 13th November 2018,” https://www.theyworkforyou.com/lords/?id=2018-11-13b.1828.0.
6. https://data.oecd.org/gdp/quarterly-gdp.htm.
7. Claire Jones, “Jens Weidmann Links EU Migration to Pay Pressure in Germany,” Financial Times, January 19, 2018.
8. David Blanchflower and Elias Papaioannou, “A Different Financial Disease Means the UK Needs a Different Treatment,” Daily Telegraph, June 8, 2010.
9. Oswald 1996, 1997, 1999.
10. U.S. Census Bureau, “Americans Moving at Historically Low Rates, Census Bureau Reports,” November 16, 2016, http://census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2016/cb16-189.html.
11. Smith, Rosen, and Fallis 1988; Hammnett 1991; Rohe and Stewart 1996; Henley 1998.
12. Blanchflower and Oswald 2013.
13. Ibid., table 9.
14. Svenja Gudell, “Q4 2016 Negative Equity Report: Improvement Continues, but at a Much Slower Rate,” www.Zillow.com, March 7, 2017.
15. These are the latest data from Zillow.
16. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Housing_statistics.
17. Hipple 2015.
18. Krueger 2017, table 1, shows a rise in the participation rate of women age 25–34 from 2007–2017 (first half), from 74.4% to 75.3% but not for 35–44 (75.5% to 74.8%) or 45–54 (76% to 74.4%).
19. Ben Casselman, “Why Some Scars from the Recession May Never Vanish,” New York Times, October 5, 2017.
20. Michael Saunders, “The Labour Market” (Speech given at the Resolution Foundation, January 13, 2017, Bank of England).
21. https://www.census.gov/hhes/school/data/cps/historical/index.html.
22. https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/informationGateway.php.
23. Holzer 2007.
24. Schmitt and Warner 2010.
25. Blanchflower 2000, 2004, 2015b.
26. The only other OECD country to see an increase in the self-employment rate in recent years was the Netherlands, which has seen a rise every year since 2000: 2000 = 11.2%; 2005 = 12.4%; 2008 = 13.2%; 2010 = 15%; and 2013 = 15.9%.
27. Blanchflower 2015a.
28. Office for National Statistics, “Self-employed Workers in the UK, 2014,” August 20, 2014, Department for Work and Pensions, Family Resource Survey, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_374941.pdf; Office for National Statistics, “Trends in Self-employment in the UK,” February 7, 2018, https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/trendsinselfemploymentintheuk/2018-02-07.
29. Office for National Statistics, “Contracts That Do Not Guarantee a Minimum Number of Hours,” April 2018, https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/contractsthatdonotguaranteeaminimumnumberofhours/april2018.
30. Estimates of earnings used in the calculations refer to gross earnings of full-time wage and salaried workers. However, this definition may vary slightly from one country to another. Further information on the national data sources and earnings concepts used in the calculations can be found at www.oecd.org/employment/outlook.
31. https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm.
32. My thanks to Deutsche Bank chief economist Torsten Slok for providing me with these data.
33. Office for National Statistics, “Household Disposable Income and Inequality in the UK: Financial Year Ending 2016,” January 10, 2017, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2016.
34. Ibid.
35. “Union Membership and Coverage Database from the CPS,” www.Unionstats.com; “Trade Union Statistics, 2017,” https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/trade-union-statistics-2017.
36. Card, Lemieux, and Riddell 2004.
37. Blanchflower and Bryson 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2010.
38. Blanchflower and Slaughter 1999.
39. McBride (2001) does a similar test.
40. Hollander 2001; Ferrer-i-Carbonell 2005; Johansson-Stenman, Carlsson, and Daruvala 2002; Senik 2004.
41. Clark and Oswald 1996.
42. Clark, Frijters, and Shields 2008.
43. Alesina, Di Tella, and MacCulloch 2004.
44. Ifcher, Zarghamee, and Graham 2016.
45. Berg and Veenhoven 2010.
46. Krueger 2012.
47. Chetty et al. 2014.
48. Neal Gabler, “The Secret Shame of Middle Class Americans,” Atlantic, May 2016.
1. “Did We Take Low Interest Rates for Granted?” editorial, New York Times, January 6, 2017.
2. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 13–14, 2016,” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20161214.pdf, p. 8.
3. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/html/eb201604.en.html#IDofChapter1_2.
4. Ignazio Visco, “For the Times They Are A-Changin’ …” (Speech at the London School of Economics, November 11, 2015).
5. Dennis Lockhart, “A Potentially Momentous Year for Policy,” January 12, 2015, https://www.frbatlanta.org/news/speeches/2015/150112-lockhart.
6. See also Pencavel 2018.
7. Brechling 1965; Ball and St. Cyr 1966; Hart and Sharot 1978.
8. See Ashenfelter, Farber, and Ransom 2010 and Manning 2003.
9. Kahn 2010.
10. Valletta, Bengali, and van der List 2015.
11. J. Larrimore, A. Durante, K. Kreiss, E. Merry, C. Park, and C. Sahm, “Shedding Light on Our Economic and Financial Lives,” FEDS Notes, May 22, 2018.
12. Eurostat, “Underemployment and Potential Additional Labour Force Statistics,” https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Underemployment_and_potential_additional_labour_force_statistics#Underemployed_part-time_workers.
13. Bell and Blanchflower, forthcoming, 2018a, 2018b, 2014, 2013, 2011.
14. With the UKLFS, full-time or part-time status is self-defined. Analysis of the 2006 data suggests that 90% of those who describe themselves as part-timers worked 5–32 hours per week, while 90% of those who describe themselves as full-timers worked 34–60 hours per week (Walling and Clancy 2010).
15. There is an issue with holes in the data the ONS provides for the UK to the EULFS so we make use of the original data from the UKLFS. They do not provide data on those who want fewer hours but only those who want more, which means we cannot use these data to calculate our index.
16. The A8 is the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic. The A2 is Bulgaria and Romania.
17. Department for Work and Pensions, “National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals to December 2017,” February 22, 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-insurance-number-allocations-to-adult-overseas-nationals-to-december-2017.
18. https://data.oecd.org/unemp/harmonised-unemployment-rate-hur.htm.
19. See Bell and Blanchflower 2018b.
20. http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=36324#.
21. Hong et al. (2018) make use of a slightly different concept of involuntary part-time employment than we do. David Bell and I use the Eurostat definition. Hong et al. make use of the OECD definition of involuntary part-time, which produces different estimates.
22. Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK. We mapped on some additional unemployment rates that were missing from the master file for Cyprus, Lithuania, and Malta. See Bell and Blanchflower 2018b.
23. U3 = Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)—3.9%
U4 = Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers—4.2%
U5 = Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force—4.8%
U6 = Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part-time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force—7.5%
The numbers are the latest seasonally adjusted data at the time of writing (July 2018). Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the previous twelve months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market-related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part-time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm.
24. Philippa Dunn pointed out to us that the BLS’s original broad labor market utilization measure was called U7 as outlined in Shiskin (1976) and Sorrentino (1993, 1995). U6 was defined differently from 1976 to 1993 as total full-time job seekers, plus half of the part-time job seekers, plus half of the total number of persons working part-time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force, less half of the part-time labor force. U7 then added discouraged workers in the denominator and numerator. The definitions were changed to those described in the appendix as a result of the redesign of the CPS in January 1994. The new modified set of alternative indicators U1–U6, dropping U7, were described in Bregger and Haugen 1995. In 1994 the old U7 was 10.2% and the new U6 was 10.9%.
1. Sir Nick, as he was at the time, told me that the first time he had ever heard of subprime mortgages was from me!
2. In the end I crossed the Atlantic every three weeks for six years. I just remember being exhausted all the time and my golf game collapsed and my handicap doubled!
3. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 16, 2008,” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080916meeting.pdf, p. 72.
4. Ibid., 3.
5. Ashley Seager and Larry Elliott, “UK Rate Cut Vital to Avoid Slump, Says MPC Member,” Guardian, January 28, 2008.
6. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee March 18, 2008,” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20080318.pdf.
7. Testimony to Treasury Select Committee, September 11, 2008, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmtreasy/1033/8091107.htm. See also David G. Blanchflower, “Sir Mervyn King Missed the Big One Despite Plenty of Wake-up Calls,” Independent, May 14, 2012.
8. Larry Kudlow, “Kudlow 101: There Ain’t No Recession,” National Review, December 7, 2007.
9. Employment Situation, December 2007, BLS.
10. Megan Keller, “Kudlow: ‘Recession Is So Far in the Distance I Can’t See It,’” The Hill, November 20, 2018.
11. “Lessons of the Fall,” Economist, October 18, 2007.
12. Treasury Select Committee, “The Run on the Rock, Volume 1,” January 24, 2008, The Stationery Office, London, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmtreasy/56/56i.pdf.
13. “Rush on Northern Rock Continues,” BBC News, September 15, 2007.
14. Graham Wearden, “Santander to Buy A&L for £1.3bn,” Guardian, July 2008.
15. Harry Wallop, “Bradford & Bingley: A History of How and When It All Went Wrong,” Telegraph, September 28, 2008.
16. “Lessons of the Fall.”
17. Martin Wolf, “Osborne Has Now Been Proved Wrong on Austerity,” Financial Times, September 26, 2013.
18. Sumeet Desai and Matt Falloon, “Bank’s Blanchflower Says Big Rate Cuts Needed,” Reuters, August 28, 2008.
19. MPC Minutes, September 3 and 4, 2008, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/minutes/2008/monetary-policy-committee-september-2008.
20. David Blanchflower, “Pity the Lost Generation,” New Statesman, September 24, 2009.
21. Mark Carney, “The Spectre of Monetarism” (Roscoe Lecture, Liverpool John Moores University, December 5, 2016).
22. Quoted in Susan Page, “10 Years Later We May Not Be Ready for Another Fiscal Crisis,” USA Today, July 18, 2018.
23. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, he of Black Swan fame, has argued that what we have seen is a rebellion against the inner circle of policymakers who are telling us (1) what to do, (2) what to eat, (3) how to speak, (4) how to think, and (5) whom to vote for. He calls them the Intellectual Yet Idiot (IYI). See “The Intellectual Yet Idiot,” Medium.com, September 16, 2016. He says, colorfully, the IYI has been wrong, historically, on “Stalinism, Maoism, GMOs, Iraq, Libya, Syria, lobotomies, urban planning, low carbohydrate diets, gym machines, behaviorism, transfats, Freudianism, portfolio theory, linear regression, Gaussianism, Salafism, dynamic stochastic equilibrium modeling, housing projects, selfish gene, election forecasting models, Bernie Madoff (pre-blowup) and p-values. But he is convinced that his current position is right.” He doesn’t mean me of course!
24. Letter to the Queen from the British Academy signed by 33 economists including 9 members, ex- and future, of the MPC and civil servants: http://www.feed-charity.org/user/image/besley-hennessy2009a.pdf.
25. Charlie Bean, “Measuring Recession and Recovery: An Economic Perspective” (Speech at RSS Statistics User Forum Conference, October 27, 2010).
26. Blanchflower 2013.
27. A. L. Sussman, “Q & A: Paul Romer on ‘Mathiness’ and the State of Economics,” Wall Street Journal, August 17, 2015.
28. Wolfgang Münchau, “A Warning for the Losers of the Liberal Elite: If You Make the Same Mistakes in the Battles of 2017, Populists Will Win Everywhere,” Financial Times, January 15, 2017.
29. Narayana Kocherlakota, “Economic Forecasting Is Still Broken,” Bloomberg Opinion, May 19, 2017.
30. Ibid.
31. Office for Budget Responsibility, “Forecast Evaluation Report, October 2017,” https://obr.uk/fer/forecast-evaluation-report-october-2017/, p. 6.
32. Ibid., 7.
33. Business Leader, “Brexit Wasn’t a ‘Michael Fish Moment’: But Economics Does Need to Change,” Guardian, January 8, 2017.
34. David Miles, “Andy Haldane Is Wrong: There Is No Crisis in Economics. Brexit Forecast Failures Tell Us Nothing New,” Financial Times, January 11, 2017.
35. Chari and Kehoe 2006.
36. Russ Roberts, “What Do Economists Actually Know?” Newco Shift, March 2, 2017, https://shift.newco.co/what-do-economists-know-199bf5793ae6#.7gy2ou17n.
37. Adam Ozimek, “The Value of Empirical Economics,” Economy.com, March 8, 2017, https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/294247/The-Value-of-Empirical-Economics/.
38. Noah Smith, “Anti-empiricism Is Not Humility,” http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com, March 10, 2017.
39. John Cochrane, “Russ Roberts on Economic Humility,” Grumpy Economist, March 3, 2017, http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2017/03/russ-roberts-on-economic-humility.html.
40. Robert Shiller, “Richard Thaler Is a Controversial Nobel Prize Winner—but a Deserving One,” Guardian, October 11, 2017. Six percent of all Nobels have been awarded, says Shiller, to people who can be classified as behavioral economists including Richard Thaler (2017), Bob Shiller (2013), George Akerlof (2001), Robert Fogel (1993), Daniel Kahneman (2002), and Elinor Ostrom (2009).
41. Stephen Nickell, “Household Debt, House Prices and Consumption Growth” (Speech given at Bloomberg in London, September 14, 2004).
42. Charles Bean, speech given at the Colchester Town Partnership Annual Dinner, Moot Hall, Colchester, November 25, 2004, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2004/colechester-town-partnership-annual-dinner.
43. Ryan Cooper, “The Biggest Policy Mistake of the Last Decade,” The Week, August 14, 2018.
44. The 2015 numbers are taken from the OBR’s March 2017 forecast.
45. “Budget 2011: Chancellor George Osborne’s Speech in Full,” Daily Telegraph, March 23, 2011, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/8401022/Budget-2011-Chancellor-George-Osbornes-speech-in-full.html.
46. David Blanchflower and Robert Skidelsky, “Cable’s Attempt to Claim Keynes Is Well Argued—but Unconvincing,” New Statesman, January 27, 2011.
47. Joe Stiglitz, “When It Comes to the Economy, Britain Has a Choice: May’s 80s Rerun or Corbyn’s Bold Rethink,” Prospect Magazine, October 9, 2017.
48. Martin Wolf, “How Austerity Has Failed,” New York Review of Books, July 11, 2011.
49. George Osborne, “A New Economic Model,” https://conservative-speeches.sayit.mysociety.org/speech/601526.
50. The result was ultimately published as Herndon, Ash, and Pollin 2014.
51. Simon Wren-Lewis, “The Biggest Economic Policy Mistake of the Last Decade, and It Had Nothing to Do with Academic Economists,” Mainly Macro Blog, August 21, 2018.
52. P. De Grauwe, “Cherished Myths Fall Victim to Economic Reality,” Financial Times, July 22, 2008.
53. Mervyn King, “The Inflation Target Ten Years On” (Speech at the London School of Economics, November 2002).
54. Robert Skidelsky, “We Forgot Everything Keynes Taught Us,” Washington Post, October 13, 2008.
55. Wolfgang Münchau, “The Elite’s Marie Antoinette Moment: Right Response Is to Focus on the Financial Sector and Inequality,” Financial Times, November 27, 2016.
56. Simon Wren-Lewis, “Miles on Haldane on Economics in Crisis,” Mainly Macro Blog, January 13, 2017.
57. Skidelsky 2009. Robert sent me an early copy of his book. He was much amused to find out, though, that on the day it arrived my Bernese Mountain dog, Monty, shredded the book to pieces and I had to buy another one. Sadly, he never did that to any other book.
58. I first met Larry Summers (who was the youngest full professor at Harvard ever, and a star) in the 1980s when he used to come to the unemployment seminar at the London School of Economics. I chatted with him once over dinner in Hawaii after a seminar and he told me I should do public service in the UK. I took his advice as one mostly should. At a press conference I did once hear him apologize to the people of South Korea for a comment he had made.
59. Paul Krugman, “The State of Macro Is Sad (Wonkish),” New York Times, August 12, 2016.
60. Ben Riley-Smith and Michael Wilkinson, “Michael Gove Compares Experts Warning against Brexit to Nazis Who Smeared Albert Einstein’s Work as He Threatens to Quit David Cameron’s Cabinet,” Telegraph, June 21, 2016. In a tweet to me Gove even claimed I was “mugged by reality.” The UK economy quickly thereafter went from the fastest growing in the G7 to the slowest.
1. Lempert explains that the man on the Clapham omnibus is the “judicially constructed image of a sane, sober but not extraordinarily gifted person who never takes unreasonable chances, and does nothing extraordinary, but does everything that is ordinary, to perfection” (2003, 3).
2. David Blanchflower, “Recent Developments in the UK Economy: The Economics of Walking About” (Bernard Corry Memorial Lecture, Queen Mary College, University of London, May 30, 2007).
3. Blanchflower, Oswald, and Garrett 1990; Blanchflower, Oswald, and Sanfey 1996.
4. Sorrentino 1981. The data for the UK are for 1961 and 1971 rather than 1960 and 1970 (for the United States).
5. Fujihara et al. 2017.
6. “2008 Plastic Surgery Statistics,” American Society of Plastic Surgeons, https://www.plasticsurgery.org/news/plastic-surgery-statistics?sub=2008+Plastic+Surgery+Statistics.
7. Tamar Lewin, “The Hemline Index, Updated,” New York Times, October 19, 2008.
8. I am grateful to Mike McKee for providing me with Richard Yamarone’s data from the Bloomberg terminal.
9. Griff Witte, “As Brexit Approaches, Signs of a Gathering Economic Storm for Britain,” Washington Post, December 13, 2016.
10. Zlata Rodionova, “Brexit Hits Pink Wafer Maker Rivington Biscuits as It Goes into Administration Cutting 100 Jobs,” Independent, December 15, 2016.
11. Jill Treanor, “JP Morgan to Move Hundreds of Jobs out of the UK Due to Brexit,” Guardian, May 3, 2017.
12. Amelia Heathman, “Which Companies Could Leave the UK Because of Brexit?” Verdict.co.uk, August 2, 2017.
13. Sarah Gordon and Jim Pickard, “More UK Businesses Join Airbus Lead on Hard Brexit Warning,” Financial Times, June 21, 2018.
14. Patrick Greenfield, “Airbus Plans UK Job Cuts amid Fears of Hard Brexit Impact,” Guardian, June 19, 2018.
15. Aditya Chakrabortty, “Airbus Has Delivered a Body Blow to Brexit Britain: It Won’t Be the Last,” Guardian, June 22, 2018.
16. Peter Campbell, “Jaguar Land Rover Says Hard Brexit Will Cost It £1.2bn a Year,” Financial Times, July 4, 2018.
17. Ibid.
18. https://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/economy/brexit-jobs-tracker/.
19. Leo Lewis, “Japanese Drugmaker Moves European HQ from London over Brexit,” Financial Times, March 11, 2019.
20. Ian Ayres, “Man vs. Machine—Grape Expectations: The Price of Wine,” Financial Times, September 1, 2007.
21. I even had a hat made for them saying “Myth and Measurement” to go with our “Wage Curve” hats.
22. Kolev and Hogarth 2010.
23. Ghent and Kudlyack 2010.
24. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/agentssummary/default.aspx.
25. I am grateful to Bill Lines from the Baltic Exchange for providing these data.
26. Mickey Fulp, “The 14-Year Record of the Baltic Dry Index,” Kitco.com, January 12, 2017, www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-12-21/The-14-Year-Record-of-the-Baltic-Dry-Index.html.
27. https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND.
28. MPC Minutes, August 6 and 7, 2008, para. 34, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/minutes/2008/monetary-policy-committee-august-2008.
29. Ibid., para. 41.
30. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2007/recent-developments-in-the-uk-economy-the-economics-of-walking-about; David Blanchflower, “Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy” (Speech given at the Royal Society, George Street, Edinburgh, April 29, 2008), https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2008/inflation-expectations-and-monetary-policy.
31. The FOMC’s median GDP forecast was 2.7% in 2018, 2.4% in 2019, and 2% in 2020. The OECD’s “Economic Outlook, March 2018” forecast was for U.S. GDP growth of 2.9% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019. The World Bank’s “Global Economic Forecast 2018” (January) had 2.5% in 2018, 2.2% in 2019, and 2% in 2020. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook in April 2018 (IMF 2018) projected growth of 2.9% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019.
32. Silvana Tenreyro, “Models in Macroeconmics” (Speech given at the University of Surrey, June 4, 2018).
33. Jon Cunliffe, “The Phillips Curve: Lower, Flatter or in Hiding?” (Speech given at the Oxford Economics Society, Bank of England, November 14, 2017).
34. Based on Eurostat news releases, November 2018, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases.
35. Eurostat news release, “Annual Growth in Unit Labour Costs at 2.2% in Euro Area,” 143/2018, September 14, 2018.
36. Kate Allen and Adam Samson, “Markets Hit as ECB Officials Strike Upbeat Note,” Financial Times, June 6, 2018.
37. Peter Praet, “Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment” (Speech given to the Congress of Actuaries, June 6, 2018, Berlin), https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/annex/ecb.sp180606_slides.en.pdf?0924e43dc5efe28f616f666074bd791b.
38. Allen and Samson, “Markets Hit as ECB Officials Strike Upbeat Note.”
39. Sabine Lautenschläger, “Monetary Policy—End of History?” (Speech at the Center for Financial Studies Colloquium, Frankfurt, May 29, 2018).
40. “Monthly New Residential Construction, September 2018,” Release Number: CB18–158, October 17, 2018, https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst_201809.pdf.
41. Megan Davies, “Twelve Charts to Watch for Signs of the Next U.S. Downturn,” Reuters, July 25, 2018.
42. Nic Fildes, “UK High Street Braces for More Store Closures,” Financial Times, May 20, 2018.
43. Office for National Statistics, “Making Ends Meet: Are Households Living beyond Their Means?” July 26, 2018, https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/makingendsmeetarehouseholdslivingbeyondtheirmeans/2018-07-26.
44. David Smith, “Why Jobs Are Booming When Growth Stays Weak,” Sunday Times, June 17, 2018.
45. Miles Johnson, “How Investors Failed to Spot Carillion’s Mounting Problems,” Financial Times, January 15, 2018.
46. Hallie Dietrick, “What You Need to Know about the Collapse of Carillion, a U.K. Construction Giant,” Fortune, January 15, 2018.
47. Gill Plimmer, Cat Rutter Pooley, Jim Pickard, and Josephine Cumbo, “Recriminations Fly after Carillion Collapses,” Financial Times, January 15, 2018.
48. Aditya Chakrabortty, “The Company That Runs Britain Is Near to Collapse: Watch and Worry,” Guardian, January 12, 2018.
49. Julia Kollewe, “HS2 Contractor Carillion Investigated by FCA,” Guardian, January 3, 2018.
50. Rob Davies, “Debt-Laden Four Seasons Health Care Suffers £27.5m Loss,” Guardian, November 16, 2017; “Four Seasons Health Care Rescue Talks Suffer Setback,” Guardian, January 11, 2018.
1. There is a bronze statue of Frost on the Dartmouth campus. On it is written, “Something there is that doesn’t love a wall,” the first line of the famous poem “Mending Wall.” https://news.dartmouth.edu/news/2016/03/dartmouth-artists-take-inspiration-frost-statue.
2. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/datasets/headlineestimatesofpersonalwellbeing.
3. Plesh, Adams, and Gansky 2012.
4. Kennedy et al. 2014.
5. Freburger et al. 2009.
6. Palmer et al. 2000; Harkness et al. 2005.
7. Leino, Berg, and Puska 1994; Heistaro et al. 1998.
8. Huppe, Muller, and Raspe 2007.
9. Christopher Ingraham, “Not Only Are Americans Becoming Less Happy—We’re Experiencing More Pain Too,” Washington Post, December 6, 2017.
10. Pratt and Brody 2014a.
11. Mojtabai and Olfson 2014.
12. NHS Digital 2016.
13. NHS Digital 2017.
14. For example, the incidence of depression was 0.6% in 1997; 1.5% in 2005; 1.6% in 2010; 1.9% in 2012; 2.4% in 2014; 2.9% in 2016; and 3.6% in 2018.
15. Exceptions are interesting essays by Kuhn, Lalive, and Zweimüller (2009) and Ludwig, Marcotte, and Norberg (2009). For a recent discussion, see the work by Katolik and Oswald (2017), who discuss research on the impact of advertising on antidepressant consumption, the link between antidepressants and the midlife crisis, and evidence on how antidepressants are connected to crime, suicide, and financial hardship.
16. Askitas and Zimmermann 2015.
17. Walburn et al. 2009.
18. Gouin and Kiecolt-Glaser 2011.
19. Marucha, Kiecolt-Glaser, and Favagehi 1998.
20. Kopp et al. 2003.
21. De Wit et al. 2010.
22. https://stateofobesity.org/rates/.
23. 1. West Virginia; 2. Mississippi; 3. Alabama; 4. Arkansas; 5. Louisiana; 6. Tennessee; 7. Kentucky; 8. Texas; 9. Oklahoma; 10. Indiana.
24. http://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm.
25. Albania; Argentina; Australia; Azerbaijan; Belarus; Belgium; Bosnia; Brazil; Brunei; Bulgaria; Cambodia; Canada; Chile; China; Colombia; Costa Rica; Croatia; Czech Republic; Denmark; Dominican Republic; Ecuador; El Salvador; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Honduras; Hungary; Iceland; Iraq; Ireland; Israel; Italy; Japan; Kyrgyzstan; Laos; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Macedonia; Malta; Mexico; Myanmar; Netherlands; Nicaragua; Nigeria; Norway; Paraguay; Peru; Philippines; Poland; Portugal; Puerto Rico; Romania; Russia; Serbia; Singapore; Slovakia; South Africa; South Korea; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Tanzania; Turkey; the UK; Ukraine; Uruguay; the United States; Uzbekistan; and Zimbabwe. Blanchflower 2009; Blanchflower and Oswald 2017.
26. The U-shape is confirmed by other studies (Deaton 2008; Stone et al. 2010; Van Landeghem 2012; Wunder et al. 2013; Schwandt 2016). Gazioglu and Tansel (2006) found that job satisfaction in the UK was U-shaped according to age. It even turns out that there is evidence of a midlife crisis in apes (Weiss et al. 2012). Glenn (2009) argued that it was appropriate to only look at patterns without controls; we disagreed (Blanchflower and Oswald 2009).
27. I estimated OLS regressions in every case containing only an age and age-squared terms pooled across countries.
“How satisfied with life as a whole?” = -.0423 Age + .00038 Age2 (min = 56). “How satisfied with the state of the economy as a whole?” = -.03955 Age + .00036 Age2 (min = 55).
“How satisfied with the national government?” = -.0584 Age + .00058 Age2 (min = 50).
“How satisfied with the way democracy works in country?” = -.0522 Age + .00047 Age2 (min = 55). “How satisfied with state of education nowadays?” = -.0425 Age + .00039 Age2 (min = 54).
“How satisfied with state of health services in country nowadays?” = -.0852 Age + .00081 Age2 (min = 52).
28. Life satisfaction = -.0196 Age -.00018 Age2 (min = 56).
National economy = -.0131 Age - .00015 Age2 (min = 44). Employment in country = -.0089 Age - .00009 Age2 (min = 50). Financial situation = -.0133 Age - .00012 Age2 (min = 51). Public services = -. 0149 Age - .00015 Age2 (min = 48).
29. Stone, Schneidera, and Brodericka 2017.
30. Steptoe, Deaton, and Stone 2015, fig. 3.
31. Ibid., fig. 2.
32. Stone et al. 2010.
33. Anderson, Russell, and Schumm 1983; Orbuch et al. 1996.
34. For the technically minded this is obtained by taking the variable hapmar, reversing the coding, and regressing it on age and age-squared—the resulting equation is happiness of marriage = 2.809163 - .0098172 Age (t = 7.9) + .0001041 Age2 (t = 8.4). The minimum of 47 is obtained by differentiating with respect to age, setting to zero, and solving. The answer is similar if I include 72 single year of age dummies; the smallest was the dummy for age 49.
35. https://www.americashealthrankings.org/explore/2015-annual-report/measure/MentalHealth/state/ALL.
36. Bohnert et al. 2011.
37. Kanny et al. 2015.
38. “Deaths: Final Data for 2014,” National Vital Statistics Reports, June 30, 2016.
39. See American Association of Suicidology—Facts & Statistics, https://www.suicidology.org/resources/facts-statistics; and Curtin, Warner, and Hedegaard 2015.
40. Curtin, Warner, and Hedegaard 2016.
41. Oswald and Tohamy 2017.
42. “Suicide among Veterans and Other Americans, 2001–2014,” Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Suicide Prevention, August 3, 2016.
43. Platt, Micciolo, and Tansella 1992.
44. Kao et al. 2014.
45. Pierce and Schott 2016.
46. Jonathan Auerbach and Andrew Gelman, “Stop Saying White Mortality Is Rising,” Slate, March 28, 2017.
47. Malcolm Harris, “The Death of the White Working Class Has Been Greatly Exaggerated,” Pacific Standard, March 28, 2017.
48. Noah Smith, “The Blogs vs. Case-Deaton,” Noahpinion, Wednesday, March 29, 2017, http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.ie/2017/03/the-blogs-vs-case-deaton.html.
49. Paul Overberg, “The Divide between America’s Prosperous Cities and Struggling Small Towns—in 20 Charts,” Wall Street Journal, December 29, 2017.
50. An unintentional injury is one that was unplanned. Unintentional injuries can be defined as events in which the injury occurs in a short period of time and the harmful outcome was not sought. Or the outcome was the result of one of the forms of physical energy in the environment or normal body functions being blocked by external means, e.g., drowning. The most common unintentional injuries result from motor vehicle crashes, falls, fires and burns, drowning, poisonings, and aspirations.
51. MacKenzie et al. 2006.
52. Mack, Jones, and Ballesteros 2017.
53. Peterson et al. 2018; Murphy et al. 2018; Hedegaard, Miniño, and Warner 2018.
54. Kochanek et al. 2017; Murphy et al. 2017.
1. Laura Bush, “Separating Children from Their Parents at the Border ‘Breaks My Heart,’” Washington Post, June 17, 2018.
2. Chris Reeves, “MSNBC Analysts: Trump Is Creating ‘Concentration Camps’ for Immigrant Children,” Townhall.com, June 15, 2018.
3. Jenna Johnson, “Trump Calls for ‘Total and Complete Shutdown of Muslims Entering the United States,’” Washington Post, December 7, 2015.
4. “Full Text: Donald Trump Announces a Presidential Bid,” Washington Post, June 16, 2015.
5. Lewis and Peri 2014.
6. Pew Research Center, “U.S. Unauthorized Immigration Population Estimates,” November 2016.
7. Jens Manuel Kronstad, Jeffrey S. Passel, and D’Vera Cohn, “5 Facts about Illegal Immigration in the US,” November 3, 2016, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/27/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/.
8. Jeffrey S. Passel, D’Vera Cohn, and John Gramlich, “Number of U.S.-Born Babies with Unauthorized Immigrant Parents Has Fallen since 2007,” Pew Research Center, FactTank, November 1, 2018.
9. “CBP Border Security Report: Fiscal Year 2017,” December 5, 2017, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2017-Dec/cbp-border-security-report-fy2017.pdf; Miriam Jordan, “U.S. Says Deportations Rose 2% in the Latest Year,” Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2016.
10. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, “Entry/Exit Overstay Report Fiscal Year 2015,” https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/FY%2015%20DHS%20Entry%20and%20Exit%20Overstay%20Report.pdf.
11. Hanson, Liu, and McIntosh 2017.
12. Ronald Brownstein, “Places with the Fewest Immigrants Push Back Hardest against Immigration,” CNN, August 22, 2017.
13. https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/migrations/en-uk/files/Assets/Docs/Polls/EU%20immigration_FINAL%20SLIDES%2020.06.16%20V3.pdf.
14. Toby Helm, “Immigration Is Lowest Concern on Young Voters’ Brexit List,” Guardian, January 21, 2017.
15. “Shifting Grounds: Attitudes towards Immigration and Brexit,” Ipsos Mori, October 17, 2017.
16. Blinder and Richards 2016.
17. May Bulman, “Brexit: People Voted to Leave EU Because They Feared Immigration, Major Survey Finds,” Independent, June 28, 2017.
18. http://www.gallup.com/poll/4909/Terrorism-United-States.aspx.
19. Zac Auter, “Americans Continue to Cite the Economy as Top Problem,” Gallup, October 14, 2016.
20. Pew Research Center, “Europe’s Growing Muslim Population,” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322791924_Europe’s_Growing_Muslim_Population_Muslims_are_projected_to_increase_as_a_share_of_Europe’s_population_--_even_with_no_future_migration, November 29, 2017, p. 30.
21. Ibid., 24.
22. Phillip Connor and Jens Manuel Krogstad, “5 Facts about Migration and the UK,” Pew Research Center, June 21, 2016.
23. Dustmann et al. 2003.
24. National Statistics Department for Work and Pensions, “National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals to June 2018,” August 24, 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-insurance-number-allocations-to-adult-overseas-nationals-to-june-2018.
25. U.S. Census Bureau, “New American Community Survey Statistics for Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Available for States and Local Areas,” September 14, 2017, https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/acs-single-year.html?CID=CBSM+ACS16.
26. Office for National Statistics, “Note on the Difference between National Insurance Number Registrations and the Estimate of Long-Term International Migration: 2016,” May 2016, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/noteonthedifferencebetweennationalinsurancenumberregistrationsandtheestimateoflongterminternationalmigration/2016.
27. Frey Lindsay, “Ukrainian Immigrants Give the Polish Government an Out on Refugees,” Forbes, September 18, 2018.
28. Longhi, Nijkamp, and Poot 2005.
29. A very small impact on wages from immigration in the UK was also found by Nickell and Saleheen (2015). In my first year at the Bank of England Jumana Saleheen worked for me as my research advisor.
30. Kerr and Kerr 2011.
31. Longhi, Nijkamp, and Poot 2005.
32. Boubtane, Dumont, and Rault 2015.
33. Forte and Portes 2017.
34. “Crime,” www.gallup.com/poll/1603/crime.aspx.
35. John Gramlich, “Voters’ Perceptions of Crime Continue to Conflict with Reality,” Pew Research Center, FactTank, November 16, 2016.
36. Frank Newport, “Americans’ Fear of Walking Alone Ties 52-Year Low,” Gallup, November 2, 2017, https://news.gallup.com/poll/221183/americans-fear-walking-alone-ties-year-low.aspx.
37. “A Nation of Pessimists: Americans Don’t Realize How Good Things Are. Results from Ipsos ‘Perils of Perceptions’ 2017 Survey,” Ipsos Mori, December 6, 2017, https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2017-12/perils-of-perception-us-pr-12-6-2017.pdf.
38. Pamela Constable, “Most U.S. Voters View Immigrants Positively, but Most Trump Voters Don’t,” Washington Post, March 31, 2016.
39. https://news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immigration.aspx.
40. Pew Research Center, “On Immigration Policy, Partisan Differences but Also Some Common Ground,” August 25, 2016; John Gramlich, “Trump Voters Want to Build the Wall, but Are More Divided on Other Immigration Questions,” Pew Research Center, November 29, 2016; Jaya Padmanabhan, “What a Pew Poll Says about Our Views on Undocumented Immigrants,” San Francisco Examiner, December 28, 2016.
41. Pew Research Center, “A Divided and Pessimistic Electorate,” November 10, 2016, http://www.people-press.org/2016/11/10/a-divided-and-pessimistic-electorate/.
42. Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus, Kabir Khanna, and Anthony Salvanto, “Americans Continue to Oppose U.S.-Mexico Border Wall: CBS News Poll,” CBS News, March 12, 2018.
43. Pew Research Center, “The Partisan Divide on Political Values Grows Even Wider,” October 5, 2017.
44. Sean McElwee and Jason McDaniel, “Economic Anxiety Didn’t Make People Vote for Trump, Racism Did,” Nation, May 8, 2017; http://electionstudies.org/studypages/download/datacenter_all_NoData.php.
45. Niraj Chokshi, “75 Percent of Americans Say Immigration Is Good for Country, Poll Finds,” New York Times, June 23, 2018.
46. “American Public Does Not See Celebrity Candidates as the Answer,” Ipsos, June 15, 2018; YouGov for the Economist, poll, June 17–19, 2018.
47. Megan Brenan, “Record-High 75% of Americans Say Immigration Is a Good Thing,” Gallup, June 21, 2018.
48. Pew Research Center, “Voters More Focused on Control of Congress—and the President—than in Past Midterms,” June 20, 2018, http://www.people-press.org/2018/06/20/voters-more-focused-on-control-of-congress-and-the-president-than-in-past-midterms/.
49. Philip Rucker, “Trump, Stumping in Nevada, Makes Immigration a Central Midterms Issue for GOP,” Washington Post, June 23, 2018.
50. Donato Paolo Mancini and Jason Douglas, “EU Doctors Quit Britain as Brexit Looms: An Exodus of Medical Specialists Is Putting New Strains on the U.K.’s National Health System,” Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2018.
1. “The only antidote to decades of ruinous rule by a small handful of elites is a bold infusion of popular will. On every major issue affecting this country, the people are right, and the governing elite are wrong.” Donald J. Trump, Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2016.
2. http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president.
3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/opinions/trump-supporters-why-vote/.
4. Jason Margolis, “How Trump Won Over Pennsylvania’s Steel-Town Democrats and Tennessee’s Christians,” PRI’s The World, November 10, 2016, http://www.wuwm.com/post/how-trump-won-over-pennsylvanias-steel-town-democrats-and-tennessees-christians#stream/0.
5. Jason Margolis, “Trump’s Anti-globalization Message Resonates in ‘Forgotten’ Pennsylvania Town,” PRI’s The World, July 20, 2016, https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-07-20/forgotten-world-trumps-anti-globalization-message-resonates-struggling.
6. Kris Maher, Valerie Bauerlein, and Jim Carlton, “Voter Anxiety That Fueled Trump’s Victory Turns to Hope for Jobs,” Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2017.
7. Powdthavee et al. 2017.
8. Andrew Higgins, “Wigan’s Road to ‘Brexit’: Anger, Loss and Class Resentments,” New York Times, July 5, 2016.
9. Harriet Agnew, “Macron Calls Emergency Meeting after Riots Leave France in Shock,” Financial Times, December 2, 2018; Angelique Chrisafis, “Paris Rioting: French Government Considers State of Emergency over ‘Gilets Jaunes’ Protests,” Guardian, December 2, 2018.
10. Noemie Bisserbe, Nick Kostov, and Stacy Meichtry, “Paris Protests Turn Violent Again Despite Heavy Security,” Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2018.
11. Kim Willsher, “Paris under Siege as Gilets Jaunes Open ‘Act IV’: A Fourth Weekend of Protest,” Guardian, December 8, 2018.
12. Kim Willsher, “Macron Bows to Protesters’ Demands and Says: I Know I Have Hurt Some of You,” Guardian, December 10, 2018.
13. A. Selyukh, “After Brexit Vote, Britain Asks Google: ‘What Is the EU?’” NPR News, June 24, 2016.
14. F. Islam, “Post-Brexit Sunderland: ‘If This Money Doesn’t Go to the NHS, I Will Go Mad,’” Guardian, August 9, 2016.
15. A. Chakrabortty, “Just About Managing? In Towns Like Pontypool That’s a Dream,” Guardian, November 22, 2016.
16. James Pickard, “Welcome to the Most Pro-Brexit Town in Britain,” Financial Times, February 2, 2017.
17. Helen Pidd, “Blackpool’s Brexit Voters Revel in ‘Giving the Metropolitan Elite a Kicking,’” Guardian, June 27, 2016; Chakrabortty, “Just About Managing?”
18. Elisabeth O’Leary, “‘Get on with it’: English Seaside Town Has Brexit Message for PM May,” Reuters, November 8, 2016.
19. Steven Erlanger, “A Once-Declining British Resort Town Sees New Life, Post-Brexit,” New York Times, August 21, 2016.
20. I am grateful to Oliver Heath for providing me with these county-level data.
21. Christopher Caldwell, “The French, Coming Apart,” City Journal, Spring 2017.
22. Zapryanova and Christiansen 2017.
23. Mark Lilla, “France: Is There a Way Out?” New York Review of Books, March 10, 2016.
24. http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/; https://www.bdm.msee.fr/bdm2/choixCriteres?codeGroupe=712.
25. Sebastian Payne, “East Coast Collapse Gives a Boost to UK Rail Nationalisation,” Financial Times, May 16, 2018.
26. In order: 1. West Wales; 2. Cornwall; 3. Durham and Tees Valley; 4 Lincolnshire; 5. South Yorkshire; 6. Shropshire and Staffordshire; 7. Lancashire; 8. Northern Ireland; and joint 10. East Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire. http://inequalitybriefing.org/graphics/briefing_43_UK_regions_poorest_North_Europe.pdf.
27. Chiara Albanese and Marco Bertacche, “Italians Still Want the Euro,” June 5, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/euro-skeptics-won-the-election-but-italians-still-want-the-euro.
28. James Politi and Kate Allen, “Italian Market Turmoil Deepens as President Picks New Premier,” Financial Times, May 29, 2018.
29. Tony Barber, “The Chiaroscuro of Italian Populism,” Financial Times, May 28, 2018.
30. Gideon Rachman, “Italy, Democracy and the Euro Cage,” Financial Times, June 4, 2018.
31. John Follain, Lorenzo Totaro, and Chiara Albanese, “Italy’s Conte Promises Populist Agenda, Urges Strong Europe,” Bloomberg, June 5, 2018.
32. Miles Johnson and Mehreen Khan, “Italy Remains Defiant over Government Budget Plans,” Financial Times, November 13, 2018; Miles Johnson, “IMF Warns Italy That Budget Plans Risk Backfiring,” Financial Times, November 13, 2018.
33. Barbara Surk, “Slovenia Elections Tilt Another European Country to the Right,” New York Times, June 3, 2018.
34. Bojan Pancevski, “Austrian Leader’s Blueprint for Europe’s Establishment: Move to the Right,” Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2018.
35. Polly Curtis, “How Gillian Duffy Nipped out for a Loaf—but Left Gordon Brown in a Right Jam,” Guardian, April 29, 2010.
36. Charlie Sykes, “If Liberals Hate Him, Then Trump Must Be Doing Something Right,” New York Times, May 12, 2017.
37. Art Buchwald, “What about Chappaquiddick?” Los Angeles Times, July 12, 1973.
38. http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/05/19/harvard-study-80-percent-trump-coverage-was-negative-during-first-hundred-days.
40. Nadia Popovich, “Today’s Energy Jobs Are in Solar, Not Coal,” New York Times, April 25, 2017.
41. Laura McCrystal, “Trump and His Supporters, Defiant in Blue-Collar Pennsylvania,” Philly.com, October 11, 2017.
42. Jan Murphy, “Luzerne Countians Voted for Trump, but Now ‘He’s Going to Need Our Prayers’ More than Ever,” PennLive.com, January 19, 2017.
43. Michelle Nijhuis, “Why Trump Can’t Make Coal Great Again,” National Geographic, March 28, 2017.
44. Chico Harlan reported that similar lawsuits were also filed in Farmers Branch, Texas; Valley Park, Missouri; Riverside, New Jersey; Escondido, California; and Fremont, Nebraska. All the lawsuits have been stopped by court rulings, settlements, or challenges with enforcement with several also having been ordered to pay the legal fees for the civil rights groups that brought suits. Chico Harlan, “In These Six American Towns, Laws Targeting ‘the Illegals’ Didn’t Go as Planned,” Washington Post, January 26, 2017.
45. Bob Tita and Andrew Tangel, “Trump Warns Another U.S. Company,” Wall Street Journal, December 5, 2016.
46. Andrew Tangel, “Companies Plow Ahead with Moves to Mexico Despite Trump’s Pressure,” Wall Street Journal, February 8, 2017.
47. Hope Yen, “AP FACT CHECK: Trump Says US Steel Opening Mills: Not So,” Fox News, August 2, 2018.
48. Philip Bump, “Trumbull County, Ohio, Shifted 30 Points to Vote Trump; That Didn’t Save Its Car Plant,” Washington Post, November 26, 2018; Neal E. Boudette, “G.M. to Idle Plants and Cut Thousands of Jobs as Sales Slow,” New York Times, November 26, 2018; Neal E. Boudette, “Ford, an Automaker at a Crossroads, Seeks Cuts and Partners,” New York Times, October 5, 2018.
49. Terry Macalister, Pamela Duncan, Cath Levett, Finbarr Sheehy, Paul Scruton, and Glenn Swann, “The Demise of UK Deep Coal Mining: Decades of Decline,” Guardian, December 18, 2015.
50. Helen Pidd, “Britain’s Poles: Hard Work, Yorkshire Accents and Life Post-Brexit Vote,” Guardian, October 25, 2016.
51. Aletha Adu, “‘We Northerners ARE Educated’: Feisty Brexit Voters SLAP DOWN Remoaners on Question Time,” Express, December 2, 2016.
52. Brian Kelly, “Balmat Mine Owner Loses $10.5m Asbestos Liability Case,” Watertown Daily Times, February 12, 2015; CNBC, “Jury Awards More than $70 Million to Woman in Baby Powder Lawsuit,” October 28, 2016.
53. Xander Landen, “Vermont Talc at Center of $117 Million Contaminated Baby Powder Case,” VTDigger, April 16, 2018, https://vtdigger.org/2018/04/16/vermont-talc-center-117-million-contaminated-baby-powder-case/.
54. https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodities/talc/.
55. Bob Davis, “The Thorny Economics of Illegal Immigration,” Wall Street Journal, February 6, 2016.
56. The Quebec meeting has been called the G6+1 rather than G7. David Leonhardt, “The G6+1,” New York Times, June 8, 2018.
1. Alissa J. Rubin, “May 1968: A Month of Revolution Pushed France into the Modern World,” New York Times, May 5, 2018.
2. Krugman notes that one of his favorite quotes from Keynes comes from Essays in Persuasion, in which he tried to explain the nature of the Great Depression, which was still in its early stages, and declared that “we have magneto [alternator] trouble.” The economic engine was as powerful as ever—but one crucial part was malfunctioning and needed to be fixed. That’s about where we are now, Krugman says. The defective alternator is the financial system. We replaced the old, bank-centered system with a high-tech gizmo that was supposed to be more efficient—but it relied on fancy computer chips to function, and it turns out that there were some fatal errors in the programming. He concludes by asking, “Anybody know a good mechanic?” Paul Krugman, “Magneto Trouble,” New York Times, March 10, 2008.
3. Paul Krugman, “Pessimism and Paralysis in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis,” New York Times, December 9, 2017.
4. Edmund S. Phelps, “Nothing Natural about the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” Project Syndicate, November 2, 2017. Several years ago Ned Phelps and I were both hired by Bloomberg to go to their headquarters in New York and debate with Jean-Claude Trichet on whether the UK should join the Eurozone in front of an invited audience. Ned and I argued vehemently against. I do recall we won the debate on a show of hands!
5. Friedman explained what the natural rate of unemployment is and what determines it: “The ‘natural rate of unemployment,’ in other words, is the level that would be ground out by the Walrasian system of general equilibrium equations, provided there is imbedded in them the actual structural characteristics of the labor and commodity markets, including market imperfections, stochastic variability in demands and supplies, the cost of gathering information about job vacancies and labor availabilities, the costs of mobility, and so on” (1968, 8).
6. Janet L. Yellen, “Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy” (Speech at “Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals,” 59th Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Cleveland, September 26, 2017).
7. Transcript of Chairman Powell’s press conference, March 21, 2018, https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20180321.pdf.
8. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/february/opening-remarks-february-2018.pdf?la=en&hash=7DE6659ABAA226A7DFAE1A252F4CF0B50E43FB8F.
9. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2017/opening-remarks-february-2017.pdf?la=en&hash=141A342DDF73DE7E8584CBE4BDBA4C323E484C5E.
10. Bank of England Inflation Report, February 2018, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/february/inflation-report-february-2018.pdf?la=en&hash=555ED88EF574D368B81BF703480C1987EEBBA883, p. 20.
11. David Goodman, “Carney Says More BOE Rate Hikes Ahead, Stays Vague on Timing,” Bloomberg, February 21, 2018.
12. Anurag Kotoky and Lucy Meakin, “BOE’s Haldane Sees U.K. Wage Growth Starting to Strengthen,” Bloomberg, October 10, 2018; Andy Haldane, “Growing, Fast and Slow” (Speech given at the University of East Anglia, February 17, 2015).
13. Silvana Tenreyro, “Models in Macroeconomics” (Speech given at Surrey University, June 4, 2018).
14. Larry Summers, “Only Raise US Rates When Whites of Inflation’s Eyes Are Visible,” Financial Times, February 8, 2015.
15. Quoted in Carolynn Look, “It’s Hard to Lift Wages When Phillips Curve Is as Flat as Kansas,” Bloomberg, November 3, 2017.
16. Gertjan Vlieghe, “From Asymmetry to Symmetry: Changing Risks to the Economic Outlook” (Speech given at the Confederation of British Industry, March 23, 2018).
17. Jim Poterba, president of the NBER, asked me what I thought the NAIRU was, pre-2008, which encouraged me to write this sentence! Doug Staiger once told me that macroeconomists just assumed it was a rolling average of past, current, and future unemployment rates, which does not allow the possibility that the NAIRU is a lot below current unemployment rates.
1. Transcript of Chairman Powell’s Press Conference, June 13, 2018, https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20180613.pdf. p. 12.
2. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20180926.pdf.
3. Roberta Rampton and Michael Martina, “U.S., China Agree on Trade War Ceasefire after Trump, Xi Summit,” Reuters, December 1, 2018.
4. Tim Tankersley and Alan Rappeport, “White House Analysis Finds Tariffs Will Hurt Growth, as Officials Insist Otherwise,” New York Times, June 7, 2018.
5. Eli Watkins, “Peter Navarro Says ‘There’s a Special Place in Hell’ for Justin Trudeau,” CNN, June 10, 2018.
6. Annie Lowery, “Trump’s Smart Tariffs Don’t Make Economic Sense,” Atlantic, March 1, 2018.
7. Robert Eisenbeis, “Whack a Mole,” Cumberland Advisers, July 26, 2018, Sarasota, Florida.
8. Adriana Belmonte, “The Incredible U.S.-to-China Soybean Nosedive, in One Chart,” Yahoo Finance, November 17, 2018.
9. Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson, “Cost Impact of Tariffs Laid Bare in Corporate Earnings,” Financial Times, July 26, 2018.
10. Heather Long, “‘Not What We Expected’: Trump’s Tax Bill Is Losing Popularity,” Washington Post, June 29, 2018.
11. Toby Eckert, “Poll: Support for GOP Tax Law Erodes,” Politico, June 27, 2018.
12. Newt Gingrich, “Trump’s GDP Achieves Mission Impossible (and Shocks His Critics),” Fox News, July 27, 2018, https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-trumps-gdp-achieves-mission-impossible-and-shocks-his-critics.
13. Josh Boak and Christopher Rugaber, “AP FACT CHECK: Trump Says Economy Best ‘EVER’: It’s Not,” AP, June 4, 2018.
14. Harry Carr, “Sky Data Poll: 78% Think the Government Is Doing a Bad Job on Brexit,” Sky News, July 30, 2018.
15. William Booth and Karla Adam, “British Farmers Worry: Who Will Pick the Fruit after Brexit?” Washington Post, July 29, 2018.
16. Bank of England, “EU Withdrawal Scenarios and Monetary and Financial Stability: A Response to the House of Commons Treasury Committee,” November 2018, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability.pdf?la=en&hash=B5F6EDCDF90DCC10286FC0BC599D94CAB8735DFB.
17. https://archive.org/details/BLOOMBERG_20181128_160000_Bloomberg_Markets_European_Close/start/2640/end/2700.
18. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html.
19. George Magnus, “The US Economy Is Doing Well—but Headwinds Are Building,” Prospect, January 8, 2018.
20. Heather Long, “The U.S. Is on Track for the Longest Expansion Ever, but It’s Coming at a Cost,” Washington Post, April 18, 2018.
21. The Jarrow March of October 5–31, 1936, involved 200 men marching from Jarrow in northeast England to London, carrying a petition requesting help for their town following the closure in 1934 of its main employer, Palmer’s shipyard.
22. See Griffith, O’Connell, and Smith 2013.
23. “Ark Encounter features a full-size Noah’s Ark, built according to the dimensions given in the Bible. Spanning 510 feet long, 85 feet wide, and 51 feet high, this modern engineering marvel amazes visitors young and old. Ark Encounter is situated in beautiful Williamstown, Kentucky, halfway between Cincinnati and Lexington on I-75.” https://arkencounter.com.
24. Dave Mosher and Skye Gould, “How Likely Are Foreign Terrorists to Kill Americans? The Odds May Surprise You,” Business Insider, January 31, 2017.
25. Jon Henley, “Is the EU Really Dictating the Shape of Your Bananas?” Guardian, May 11, 2016.
26. Eugene Robinson, “Trump’s Border-Wall Fantasy Is Crumbling,” Washington Post, April 24, 2017.
27. http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/post-abc-poll-trump-popularity-through-nearly-100-days-as-president/2198/.
28. Mark Murray, “Polls: Trump Approval Sags in Trio of Midwest States,” NBC News, July 25, 2018.
29. When the Scottish referendum took place, Spain opposed their independence because of what it would signal to Catalonia. Now Spain is supporting Scotland remaining in the EU.
30. Jason Groves, “PM ‘Would Go to War over Rock’: Leading Tories in Startling Claim That May Is Ready to Defend Gibraltar Just Like Thatcher Did the Falklands,” Daily Mail, April 2, 2017.
31. “In Full: George Osborne’s Speech at the Tory Conference,” The Scotsman, October 8, 2012, https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/in-full-george-osborne-s-speech-at-the-tory-conference-1-2565552.
32. Polly Toynbee, “With a Whiff of Sulphur, George Osborne Was Gone—but for How Long?” Guardian, April 20, 2017.
33. Office for National Statistics, “Social Capital Indicators,” May 2017, table 1.2.
34. Algan and Cahuc 2013.
35. http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20October%202013%20Poll%20Topline%20Final_TRUST.pdf.
36. Pew Research Center, “Millennials in Adulthood: Detached from Institutions, Networked with Friends,” http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/07/millennials-in-adulthood/, March 7, 2014.
37. George Gao, “Americans Divided on How Much They Trust Their Neighbors,” Pew Research Center, FactTank, April 13, 2016, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/13/americans-divided-on-how-much-they-trust-their-neighbors/.
38. Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson and Shannon Bond, “Trust in US Institutions Slumps during Trump’s First Year,” Financial Times, January 21, 2018.
39. https://www.edelman.com/news-awards/2018-edelman-trust-barometer-reveals-record-breaking-drop-trust-in-the-us.
40. Julie Ray, “World’s Approval of U.S. Leadership Drops to New Low,” Gallup, January 18, 2018.
41. Rafael Behr, “Class, Race, Wealth: Britain Is a Nation Blighted by Divisions,” Guardian, November 29, 2016.
42. www.pewglobal.org/datasets/2018/.
43. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/08/02/bbc_host_to_sean_spicer_you_have_corrupted_discourse_in_the_entire_world_with_your_lies.html.
44. Richard Wolfe, “Trump and Brexit: How Can the US and UK Media Tackle a Culture of Lies?” Guardian, July 27, 2018.
45. A taxi driver in Edinburgh, where Goodwin lives in retirement, once told me that it was a common, coordinated practice in restaurants in Edinburgh whenever Fred the Shred, as he was known, ordered food for the kitchen and waitstaff to spit in it. Waiters can always spit in your soup. Ugh.
46. Nick Hanauer, “The Pitchforks Are Coming … For Us Plutocrats,” http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-,are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014, July/August 2014.
47. Diane Roback and Nasha Gilmore, “Facts & Figures 2015: For Children’s Books, Popular Franchises Dominate,” Publishers Weekly, March 22, 2016.
48. Zack O’Malley Greenburg, “The Top-Earning Dead Celebrities of 2017,” Forbes, October 30, 2017.
49. Institute for Fiscal Studies, “Spring Budget 2017: IFS Director Paul Johnson’s Opening Remarks,” https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/budgets/budget2017/budget2017_pj2.pdf.
50. U.S. Census Bureau, “Construction Spending,” https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html.
51. Office for National Statistics, “Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: November 2017,” https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/population andmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterly report/november2017#statisticians-comment.
52. Emma Taggert, “Vermont Will Pay People Who Work from Home up to $10,000 to Move There,” Mymodernmet.com, June 1, 2018.
53. Laura Paddison, “What Is a Federal Jobs Guarantee?” Huffington Post, July 6, 2018.
54. Antti Jauhiainen and Joona-Hermanni Mäkinen, “Universal Basic Income Didn’t Fail in Finland, Finland Failed It,” New York Times, May 2, 2018.
55. https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1#/survey/ea30cfa2-6a2d-11e8-b423-d74e00ea34be/question/75c67445-6a2e-11e8-9d33-9d5c8eb86689/politics.
56. EU Commission, “Economic Forecast for the UK,” Autumn 2018, https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-performance-country/united-kingdom/economic-forecast-united-kingdom_en.
57. Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, October 2018, table 1.1.
58. Kylie MacLellan, “May’s Government Loses Contempt Vote over Brexit Legal Advice,” Reuters, December 4, 2018.
59. Laura Hughes, George Parker, and Cat Rutter Pooley, “May Aborts Planned Brexit Vote in Humiliating Setback,” Financial Times, December 10, 2018.
60. David Blanchflower, “Two Big Brexit Themes, Pulling in Opposite Directions—Experts Debate the Data,” Guardian, April 25, 2017.
61. Ramsey Touchberry, “Republican Senator Says Trump Is Creating ‘Soviet Type of Economy’ after Tariffs Create $12 Billion Aid Package,” Newsweek, July 25, 2018.