Note: Page numbers which refer to tables are shown in italics.
2000, predictions for 314, 315
Abrahamson, Professor Eric 115
adaptability 300–1
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (Bernstein) 170
Age of Turbulence, The (Greenspan) 228
Amaranth Advisors 65–6
Amazon 84–5
American companies 70–1, 122–3, 126–30
amniocentesis tests 44–6
Anaconda 139–40
angioplasty 48
assessment 234–5, 269–70, 331–2
asset allocation 104–5
augmenting 235–7, 270–2, 312, 332–3
autistic savants 245–6
averaging 195–6, 207–10, 213–14
babies 44–6
see also childbirth
Bacon, Francis 247
bankruptcies 68–9
Barnevik, Percy 145
Batra, Dr Ravi 60
Bauermeister, Klaus 217–20
Bavelas, Janet 189–90
Beecher, Dr Henry 40–1
Begley, Sharon 320–1
Bell System 263–4
Bernstein, Peter 170
betting 171–8
Bhutan and happiness 286–7
Big Winners and Big Losers: The 4 Secrets of Long-Term Business Success and Failure (Marcus) 135
birth 49–52
see also pregnancy
Blink (Gladwell) 242
blinking 242–4, 247–51, 259, 276–7, 279, 280
blood pressure 24, 27, 30, 37–8
Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant (Kim and Mauborgne) 123–4
bonds 75–6, 90, 94, 100, 102, 103, 104, 105
see also securities
Box-Jenkins 192
brain 306
Break-Throughs (Nayak and Ketteringham) 143
breast cancer 20, 35–6, 319–20
breastfeeding 50
Brownlee, Shannon 319–20
Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies (Collins and Porras) 116–17, 129–30, 133
business process management (BPM) 115
Business Week 63
Calculated Risks: How to Know when the Numbers Deceive You (Gigerenzer) 46–7
cancer 20, 30, 31, 35–7, 47–8, 319–20
Capablanca 242
Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy (Schumpeter) 141
cardiovascular disease 25–6, 27, 28–9, 37–8, 48
Cesarean sections 49–52
Challenge of Affluence, The (Offer) 291
Champy, James 113–14
chaos theory 168–9
Charles II 16–17
Chesterton, G.K. 238–9
childbirth 49–52
see also pregnancy
children, looking after 292–3, 294, 303–4
Chile 328
Chrysler 110–11
coconuts 223, 225–6, 227–8, 231–2, 238–9, 331, 332
and Klaus Bauermeister 217–20
coffee 30
Collins, Jim 116–17, 129–30, 133
colonoscopy 320
Colvin, Geoffrey 253–4
companies, successful 70–1, 116–17
computers, personal 144–5
contrarian strategy 107, 214–15
control, illusion of 1–5, 11, 12, 182, 266–8, 272
and Cesarean sections 51–2
versus fatalism 183–6
Corning Glass 140
Corrigan, Bernard 263
cortisol 296
countries, wealth and life satisfaction 288–90
crashes, financial 80–1, 210–13, 321
creative destruction 138–41, 143–4, 146, 152–4, 159–60, 310–11
Csikszentmihalyi, Mihalyi 257–8, 298–9
CT scans 47
Daily Reconstruction Method 291–4
Daimler Benz 110–12
Dawes, Robyn 262–3
deaths 2, 3, 25, 28–9, 32, 33–4, 318–19
Klaus Bauermeister 220
decision making 260–83
decision rules 262–8, 278, 282
De Geus, Arie 131
Diener, Ed 287–9
Digital Equipment 144
disasters, natural 8, 169, 225–7, 327–9
doctors 38, 42–3, 52, 56–7, 209, 249–51, 309
Dr Henry Beecher 40–1
Dow 36,000: New Strategy for Profiting from the Current Rise in the Stock Market, The (Glassman and Hassett) 60–1
Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA) 60, 79–84, 210–11, 212, 310, 321
Down’s syndrome 44–6
earthquakes, predicting 169, 226–7, 327–8
economics 147–50, 305–6, 310, 321–4
effectiveness 155
efficiency 155
Efficient Market Hypothesis 182–3
elections, forecasting 196
electricity suppliers 224–5, 256
Enron 68
entrepreneurs 141, 144–5, 151, 152, 154, 155
equity funds 67, 93, 97–8, 100
Ericsson, Anders 252
Evergreen Project 134
evidence-based medicine 48–9, 52–3
experts, consulting 272–5, 276–7, 278, 281, 282
failure 120–1, 131–2, 135, 151, 152–3, 159, 274
of businesses 329–30
and L’Oréal 256
and Toyota 324–6
Fairchild, Gregory 115
Fama, Professor Eugene F. 98, 182
fatty diets 28–9
Ferdinand, Archduke Franz 168
finance 59–109, 210–13, 227–8, 310
financial crashes 80, 210–13, 321
Fisher, Dr. Elliott S. 53
flu 318–19
food and happiness 306
forecasting 190–3, 196–210, 215–16, 224–5, 310
Fortune (magazine) 68, 116, 122–3, 325
Foster, Richard 129, 131–2, 156
Framingham studies 37–8
French life expectancy 28–9
Fryback, Dennis 320
fund managers 95–100
future-perfect thinking 235–6
future, predicting 189–216, 235–7, 316–33
futurologists, Parisien 314–15
Galbraith, John Kenneth 86
Galton, Francis 195–6, 208, 214
gambling 171–9
GDP and life satisfaction 288–90
Georgios 71–4
Geus, Arie de 131
Gigerenzer, Gerd 20–1, 46–7, 246, 249–50
Gilbert, Daniel 300–2
Gladwell, Malcolm 242
Glassman, James, K. 60–1
GlaxoSmithKline 18–19
gold prices 71–4
Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap . . . and Others Don’t (Collins) 133
Great Depression of 1990, The (Batra) 60
Guillain-Barre paralysis 319
gurus 112–16, 117–21, 123–6, 129, 131–2, 133–6, 214–15
Hadler, Dr. Norton M 48
Hammer, Michael 113–14
happiness 262–3, 284–308, 312, 326–7
Harry Potter Rule 273
Harvard School of Public Health 23–5
Hassett, Kevin A. 60–1
health 7, 16–19, 20–58, 309–10, 318–21
heart disease 25–6, 27, 28–9, 37–8, 48
heights, male INSEAD MBA students 198–200
Hillis, L. David 48
Howard, John 262–3
Hulbert, Mark 99
human error 18
human judgment 193–5
hurricanes 329
illusion of certainty 20–1
illusion of control 1–5, 11, 12, 182, 256–7, 266–8, 272
and Cesarean sections 51–2
versus fatalism 183–6
illusion of success 150–2
illusory correlation 108, 201–4
imagination, limitations 301–2
IMF 62–3
independence assumption 209
index funds 95, 98, 100, 101, 103, 109, 310
influenza 318–19
innovation 124, 134, 152, 155, 159–60, 229
In Search of Excellence: Lessons from America’s Best-Known
Companies (Peters and Waterman) 116, 117, 118–19, 130, 133
internet, as source of information 275
intuition 194–5, 242–3, 247–51, 266, 276–7, 279, 280
investment 59–109
Irrational Exuberance (Shiller) 61–2
Jensen, Professor Michael 99–100
judgment 193–5
Kahneman, Daniel 241, 258–9, 291–4
Ketteringham, J.M. 143
Kim, Chan 123–4
Kolb, Ben 17–18
Lancet, The 23–5
Layard, Richard 289–90
life expectancy 21–37, 42–3, 296, 298, 309
life satisfaction 285–308, 327
Long Term Capital Management Fund (LTCM) 64–5
L’Oréal 256
lottery winners 290
luck 2, 22, 164–7, 173–81, 186, 258, 307
and fund management 95–8
and wishes 5–7
lung cancer 47
Malkiel, Professor Burton G. 97, 100
management theories 113–16, 117–21, 310
manufacturers, cars 110–12, 324–6
marathon 255
Marcus, Alfred 135
marital happiness 262–3
Markowitz, Harry 229–30
Mauborgne, Renée 123–4
media, effect 3, 7–8, 107, 151
medicine 16–21, 23–58, 309–10, 318–21
meditation 299
Meegeren, Han van 277
Meehl, Paul 194–5
memories, short 107
Merck 128
mergers 110–12
Meriwether, John 64–5
meteorology 206–7
Miller, Bill 96–7
models, statistical 191–5, 311, 317, 328, 330
money 59–109, 227–8, 310, 321–4
and happiness 287–91, 304–6, 327
and lending 194–5
motivation 254
motor manufacturers 110–12, 324–6
mutual funds 98–102
natural disasters 8, 169, 225–7, 327–9
Nayak, P.R. 143
New England Journal of Medicine 36
newsletters, investment 99
Newsweek 320–1
Nobel prize winners 296
Norem, Julie 298
Norwegian life expectancy 28, 29
nuns 295–6
Offer, Avner 291
Olsen, Ken 144
one-off decisions 261, 262, 268–72
optimism bias 271
Oscar winners 296
over-diagnosis 55
pacemakers 41
Page, Larry 142–3
painkillers 40–1
paintings, forgeries 277
pandemic 318–19
Parkinson, C. Jay 139–40
past, understanding to predict future 204–7, 215–16
patterns 176, 178, 180, 197–8, 201–4, 243
Paxil 18–19
personal computers (PCs) 144–5
Peters, Tom 116, 117, 118–19, 130
physicians see doctors
placebos 40–2
planning, to minimize negative consequences 218–19, 227
plasma fibrinogen 296
Popper, Karl 119
Porras, Jerry 116–17, 129–30, 133
Porsche cars 300
portfolios of investment 104–6
Positive Power of Negative Thinking, The (Norem) 298
positive psychology 295–9
practice, importance 243–4, 248, 252–7, 259
Prediction Markets 208
pregnancy 44–6
see also childbirth
preparedness 328–9
prices 147–50
probability 170–4
prostate cancer 31, 36–7, 47, 320
PSA test 47
psychology 295–9
experiment 266–7
questions, how asked 303–4
Random Walk Down Wall Street, A (Malkiel) 97, 100
Reengineering the Corporation: A Manifesto for Business Revolution (Hammer and Champy) 113–14
repetitive decisions 261, 264, 266, 277–8, 280
return on stocks 102–3
risk 23–34, 104, 156, 229, 237–9, 271–2
risk and return 102–3
Roberson, Bruce 134
Romains, Jules 54–5
roulette wheel 171–2, 173, 174
running 255
S&P 500 93, 95, 96–7, 98, 101, 179, 323
companies’ performance 116, 117, 122, 133
satisfaction with life 285–308, 327
savants 245–6
scans 47
Schrempp, Jürgen Erich 111–12
Schultz, Peter 139
Schumpeter, J. 141
Schwarz, Professor Norbert 303
Science of Success: How to Attract Prosperity and Create Harmonic Wealth Through Proven Principles, The (Ray) 273
screening, health 36–7, 43–8, 319–20
see also bonds
Seligman, Martin 287–9, 296, 297
serotonin 306
Seroxat 18–19
Shakespeare, William 241
Shapiro, A.K. 42
Shaw, George Bernard 247
Shell, Donald 18
single exponential smoothing 192, 203–4
sleep 294
smoking 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 38
socio-economic phenomena 8
sport 230–1, 247–8, 250, 253–4, 255, 298
see also statistics
state of flow 299
statistics 191–5, 228–30, 311, 317, 328, 330
see also standard deviation
stock markets 60–2, 179–83, 310, 321–4
stock-pickers 95–9
see also securities
Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel) 75–7
students, heights 198–200
Stumbling on Happiness (Gilbert) 300–2
subprime mortgage lending 93, 212–13
subway uncertainty 223–5, 331–2
success 116–17, 122, 127–30, 135, 153–4, 273, 324–6
and happiness 298–9
illusion 150–2
Surowiecki, James 195–6
swine flu 318–19
tasks, completing versus outcome 304
tests
unfolding 180
Tetlock, Philip 278
thinking 268–72, 277, 278, 281
“This won’t hurt a bit: How we can save billions by cutting out unnecessary procedures that kill tens of thousands a year” (Begley) 320–1
tobacco 24
see also smoking
tonsillectomy 30–1
Toyota 324–6
trends, long-term 147–50
tulips 210–11
uncertainty 217–39, 270–1, 331–3
unfolding test 180
unique decisions 261, 262, 268–72
unknown unknowns 231, 232, 331
unpredictability 181–2
see also chance
US companies 70–1, 122–3, 126–30
venture capital 75, 90, 92, 93–4, 158–9, 186
Vermeer masterpieces 277
vitamins 31
Wall Street Journal (WSJ) 322–3
Waterman, Robert H. Jr 116, 117, 118–19, 130, 133
wealth see money
weather forecasting 206–7
Welch, Dr. Gilbert H. 47–8, 55, 320
What Really Works: The 4 + 2 Formula for Sustained Business Success (Roberson et al.) 134, 135
Wisdom of Crowds, The (Surowiecki) 195–6
Wiseman, Richard 186
wishes, making 5–7
Woods, Earl 151–2
WorldCom 68–9
Xerox 124–5
Yom Kippur War 168