Mulholland, Terry, 346
Murray, Eddie, 258
Murton, Matt, 147
Mussina, Mike, 62
Nathan, Joe, 312
National League: expansion of, 292; strength of, xxvii, 377n
Neagle, Denny, 198, 297, 317, 318
Nelson, Jeff, 315
Neutral teams, 287 (table)
New York Giants: balance of, 288; strength of, 377n
New York Mets, 144, 207; postseason and, 191; spending by, 307; stadium for, 226; wins/value for, 196
New York Yankees, 127, 311; contention by, 307; local broadcast revenue for, 186; market size of, 179, 234, 390n; OPS by, 293; payroll of, 274, 314–318; postseason and, 231; stadium for, 226
Nokes, Matt, 90
Normalization, xx, xxii, 249–250, 375n
Normalized Production (PRO+), 159
Normalized Run Average (NRA), xli
Oakland Athletics, 311; composite ranking of, 368 (table); pitching payroll of, 275; playoff odds of, 356, 356 (table); prospects and, 147; statistical analysis by, 373
OBP. See On-base percentage
O’Doul, Lefty, xxvi
O’Dowd, Dan, 297
Offenses, xix, xxii, 137, 242, 250, 277, 280, 296; average, and great pitching, 359–360, 409n; decline of, 152, 358; evaluating, 96–97; great, and average pitching, 359–360, 409n; minimum level of, 157–158; 1,000-run, 281 (table); park factors and, 6, 302; postseason and, 357, 358, 360–361
Old player’s skills, 255, 257, 257 (fig.), 266
Olerud, John, 172
Olympic Stadium, rating for, 177, 388n
On-base percentage (OBP), xiv, xix, 5–8, 34, 37, 46, 57, 146, 150, 158, 202, 255, 278, 350; adjusted, xxi, 302; AVG and, 96–97, 386n; handedness and, 348; low, 36; merits of, xviii; replacement-level, 164; SLG and, 38; steroids and, 335, 335 (table), 341
On-base percentage plus slugging average (OPS), 6, 15, 116, 130, 150, 293
100-RBI Seasons, best/worst, 9–10, 10–11 (table), 12–13 (table)
One-Run Value Yield (ORVY), 135–136, 137, 138, 141–142, 386n; initiating, 141–142
OPS. See On-base percentage plus slugging average
Orem, Preston D., 2
Ortiz, David, 117, 324; clutch hitting by, xvii, 15, 34; clutch scores of, 25, 27, 27 (table)
ORVY. See One-Run Value Yield
Orza, Gene, 233
Oswalt, Roy, 54, 273, 286, 358
Owners: decision making by, 162; new stadiums and, 212; ticket prices and, 209–210, 210–211
Pac Bell Park: funding for, 224; rating for, 388–389n
Paciorek, Tom, 158
Palmeiro, Rafael, 334; steroids and, 335, 341, 342
Palmer, Pete, x, 2, 43, 61, 114, 128, 159; on pitching, 274; Run Expectation Table and, 113
PAP. See Pitcher Abuse Points
Park effects, 91, 248, 249, 295–296, 331, 357; adjusting for, 256, 375n, 401n; for balls in play, 301 (table); use/interpretation of, 301–304
Park factors, 97, 130 (table), 298, 375n; AVG and, 294, 295; groundball percentage and, 298 (table); offensive production and, 302; runs scored and, 295
Parmelee, Roy, 288
PA. See Plate appearances
Pasqua, Dan, 258
Pastier, John, 222
Patterson, Corey, xiv, xv, 146, 154
Payroll, 210, 228; ticket prices and, 211, 230
Peavy, Jake, 54
PECOTA. See Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm
Pegler, Westbrook, xxix
Pena, Wily Mo, 38
PERA. See Peripheral ERA
Peralta, Jhonny, 138
Per-capita income, 178, 179–180, 185, 217, 218
Percival, Troy, 319
Perez, Neifi, xxix, 146–147, 148, 348
Perez, Tony, 15, 22, 23, 28, 379n
Performance, xxxvi, 160, 257; aging and, 264, 267, 377n; AVG, 259; batting, 146, 148, 149, 150, 152–154; change in, 262, 264, 340, 347; collective, 164, 167; evaluation of, 7, 20, 41, 42, 152–153; fielding, 53, 54; improving, 152–153, 161–162, 263, 334, 340, 342; level of, xxxiv, xxxvi, 171, 258, 400n; offensive, xxvi, 56, 90, 160, 262, 263; one year after hitting .250-.260, 261 (table); postseason, 28, 388n; predictor of, 147, 347, 350, 351; randomness of, 340, 346, 347; regular-season, 190, 362; replacement level and, xxxvi, 162; rest and, 82–83, 84 (table); against right-handed pitchers, 348 (table); within standard deviations/notable pitchers, 347 (table); steroids and, xlii, 328, 333, 335, 340, 341, 342; walk-year, 201. See also Pitching performance
Peripheral ERA (PERA), 53–54, 55, 57
Personal seat licenses (PSLs), 224
PETCO Park, 4, 19, 224, 386n; rating for, 389n; run-scoring environment at, 129
Peterson, Harding “Pete,” 290
Peterson, Tim, 213
Pettitte, Andy, 140, 273, 315, 316
Piazza, Mike, 117; adjusted statistics for, 301 (table); double plays and, 120; EqBR of, 118; MVP and, 302, 304; park effects and, 301–302
Pierzynski, A. J., 109, 118, 312, 321, 385n; offense of, 104–105
Piniella, Lou, 140
Pitch counts, xvii, 77–78, 80, 85, 86
Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP), 77–80, 77 (table), 78 (fig.), 86
Pitcher-catcher combinations, 107 (table)
Pitcher-handling skills, 105, 107, 111
Pitchers: batting statistics of, 400n; finesse, 366; handedness and, 97, 351; injuries for, 167, 273; measuring, 93–94 (table); number per game, 76 (fig.); power, xix, 366, 411n; replacement level for, 166–169; sacrifices by, 134–135; specialization by, 75, 92; steroids and, 334, 338, 341; with 36-plus starts/season, 81 (table); usage patterns for, 77, 84; VORP of, xiv, 278, 362. See also Closers; Relievers; Starting pitchers
Pitches: framing, 109–110; per game/Colorado park factors for, 298, 299 (table)
Pitching: average, and great offense, 359–360, 409n; cost of, 273; defense and, 90, 362–363, 366; demands of, 48–49; depth in, 272, 273, 275–276, 286, 291; great, and average offense, 359–360, 409n; hitting and, 272, 281, 286, 293, 409n, 410n; importance of, 273, 274, 280, 291, 402n; improving, 288, 290; inferior, 48, 330; postseason and, 358, 363; predictability of, 48; run prevention and, 275; runs scored and, 281; value of, 274, 275, 289; wins and, 272, 279, 286, 304
Pitching payroll, winning and, 274–275, 275 (table)
Pitching performance, 48–50, 53–56, 60, 62, 64, 87–88; catchers and, 105; decline of, 77, 78, 86; defense and, 91
Pitching Runs Above Replacement (PRAR), xli
Plate appearances (PA), 5, 37, 50, 65, 160, 261, 328, 346, 349; EqR and, 401n; performance and, 170; per game, Colorado park factors for, 299 (table); playing time and, 163
Platooning, 147, 162, 255, 347, 349, 350, 351
Player candidates, total pool of, xxv (fig.)
Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), 169, 258, 260, 261, 326–327, 396n; model career paths and, 264; Similarity Scores and, 265, 266
Players’ union, 200, 208; revenue sharing and, 229–230; salary cap and, 227, 228; salary floor and, 233
Player valuation: Linear Model of, 181, 181 (fig.), 187, 187 (fig.); Linear Model of/with revenue sharing, 188, 188 (fig.); Two-Tiered Model of, 190 (table)
Playing time, 160, 170, 202, 266, 375n, 401n; distribution of, 145–150, 154; PA and, 163; production and, 159; statistics and, 158; WARP and, 202
Playoff Success Points (PSP), 356, 357, 357 (table), 365, 408–409n, 410n, 411n; postseason and, 364; team quality and, 361, 361 (fig.); VORP and, 362; WXRL and, 363
PNC Park, 225; rating for, 177, 388n, 389n
Podsednik, Scott, 115, 118, 321, 322
Pohlad, Carl, 312
Politte, Cliff, 322
Posada, Jorge, 95, 315, 316, 317
Postseason, 366, 368, 390n, 393–394n; attendance and, 183–184; closers and, 365; concessions and, 189; making, 195, 196, 231; market size and, 232, 232 (table); media deals and, 186; new stadiums and, 222; offense and, 357, 358, 360–361; payroll and, 353; pitching and, 358, 363; probability of, 191, 192, 357; and regular season compared, 183–184, 358–359; revenue from, 175, 176, 184, 188, 190, 231, 231 (table); ticket revenue and, 180, 181; upsets in, 354; value of, 185, 190, 391n; wins and, 193
Postseason success, 354, 356, 410n, 411n; AVG and, 363; 1-run games and, 364; September won-lost record and, 364; walks and, 363
Power, 262, 340, 404n; batting eye and, 268; hitting for, 266
Power hitters, xix, 261; aging patterns of, 267 (fig.), 268, 268 (fig.), 269 (fig.); EqR of, 267; production by, 268
Power Spikes, 328–329, 332, 340, 404n; frequency of, 329, 330, 333, 405n; per 100 hitters/different eras, 331 (fig.); per 100 hitters/different eras/adjusted for park/league effects, 331 (fig.); per 100 hitters/established home-run rates, 332 (fig.)
Probability, 61, 129, 191, 192, 357; improving, 17, 64, 184; win, 131, 354, 355 (table)
Production, 6–7, 160, 268; offensive, 302, 303; playing time and, 78, 159; replacement level and, 162
Projected records, outplaying, 144–145
Protection, 35, 41, 43, 44, 46; theory of, 38–39, 40, 42
PSLs. See Personal seat licenses
PSP. See Playoff Success Points
Pujols, Albert, 106–107, 258, 327; EqA of, xxix; MLVr and, 7; position change for, 100; RBI opportunities for, 3, 4
Purpura, Tim, 273
Pythagorean Formula, 279, 280, 281, 282, 284, 380n, 402n, 409n
Pythagorean Record, 145, 279–280, 318, 362, 410n
Quadruple-A players, 242–243
Qualcomm Stadium, rating for, 389n
Quirk, James, 210
Quisenberry, Dan, 59
RA. See Run Average
Radatz, Dick, 59
Radbourne, Charles, 75
Raines, Tim, 140
Ramirez, Aramis, 119, 147, 308
Ramirez, Manny, 3, 4, 97, 198, 240
Rate statistics, xxxvii, 152, 296, 377n, 387n, 401n
RBI. See Runs batted in
RBI Opportunities Report, 3
Reardon, Jeff, 59
Redman, Mark, 320
Redmond, Mike: Glavine and, 343–347, 349, 407n
Reese, Pokey, 147
Regular season, 190, 362; closers and, 365; and postseason compared, 183–184, 358–359
Reliever ERA, 60–65
Relievers, 82, 150, 151–152, 365; contribution of, 50, 58, 61, 63, 64, 84; critical threshold levels for, 70; handedness and, 349, 351; postseason and, 363; replacement level for, 166, 167–169, 169 (table); replacement-level RA vs. league-average relief RA, 168 (fig.); rest for, 70–71; restrictions on, 68; suspension of, 338; top, 63 (table); using, 60, 61, 64, 65, 68, 69, 70, 71–72; WXRL for, 71 (table). See also Closers
Renteria, Edgar, 3, 306, 307, 323
Replacement level, xxxiv, xxxvi, xxxvii, 2, 158, 159, 160, 237, 280, 290, 397n; alternative beliefs about, 163; AVG/OBP/SLG and OPS and, 164; changes in, 169; cost of, 170, 171; defined, 161–163; formulas, 163–164; injuries and, 163; for nonpitcher positions, 166 (fig.); production and, 162; VORP and, 169
Rest, 70–71, 81–83; performance and, 82–83, 84 (table)
Reuss, Jerry, 290
Revenue, 208, 234; advertising, 176, 229; attendance, 179–181; concessions, 175, 181–182, 187, 189, 391–392n; merchandise, 175, 184–185, 187, 190, 392n; postseason, 175–176, 184, 188, 190, 231, 231 (table). See also Media revenue; Ticket revenue
Revenue sharing, 196, 226, 229, 234–235, 392, 394n, 397n, 399n; ballclub quality and, 176; income from, 188; opposition to, 187, 229–230; player valuation and, 188; revenue from, 175, 190
Reyes, Jose, 38
Reynolds, Shane, 286
RFK Stadium, run-scoring environment at, 129
Rhoden, Rick, 290
Rice, Jim, 172
Richbourg, Lance, xix
Rickey, Branch, 2, 208, 234, 371, 372; farm system and, xxiv; on fielding, 95; on luck, 322; on pitching, 274; team building and, ix–x
Rincon, Ricardo, 151
Ringolsby, Tracy, 371
Ripken, Cal, Jr., xxix, 100, 218
Rivera, Mariano, 58, 62, 121, 140, 273, 315, 316, 317, 365
Roberts, Dave, 121–125, 284, 321
Robertson, Nate, 50
Rodriguez, Alex, 87, 212, 387n; contract for, 174, 181, 196–198, 229, 396n, 397n; criticism of, 174–175; defensive skills of, 99, 159, 197; EqA of, xv, xxix; FR and, 103; Jeter and, 102–103; overpayment of, 188, 197–198; performance by, 197–198; RBI opportunities for, 3; value of, 175, 197 (table)
Rodriguez, Ivan, 105, 117, 312, 320, 356
Rodriguez, Ricardo, 338
Rogan, Bullet Joe, xxiv
Rogers, Kenny, 140, 311, 315, 316
Rosentraub, Mark, 217
RPG. See Runs per game
Rueter, Kirk, 107
Run Average (RA), 53, 85, 90, 92, 93, 94; ERA and, 78, 403n; league-average, 168; ranking of, 93 (table); replacement-level, 167, 168; rest and, 82, 83
Run differential, 123, 125, 132; wins and, 124, 144–145
Run expectation, 43–44, 45, 61, 62, 378n7; before/after walks, 44 (fig.), 45 (fig.); IBB and, 46 (table); increasing, 42, 43; strikeouts and, 378n; WinEx and, 121–122
Run Expectation Table, 113, 129
Run prevention, 49–50, 61, 62, 63, 64, 90, 357, 358; above average, 72; dominance in, 277; elements of, 94; four-man rotation and, 85; pitching/fielding and, 53, 275; strikeout rate and, 364
Runs: leveraged, 72; marginal, 72; valuing, 65, 72; wins and, 304
Runs allowed, 284; fielding and, 88; league-leading teams/finish, 277 (table); postseason and, 409n; PSP and, 408–409n; runs scored and, 279, 280, 282 (fig.), 283, 287, 409–410n; wins and, 276, 282, 283
Runs batted in (RBI), 3; playing time and, 158; quality and, 284; skepticism about, 1–2; VORP and, 10, 11
Run scoring, 34, 129, 130, 133, 145, 359, 379n; contributing to, 43; decrease in, 386n; distributions, 61, 136; probabilities, hypothetical, 136 (table)
Runs Created Above Average (RCAA), 159
Runs Created per 27 outs (RC/27), 164
Runs per game (RPG), 330, 330 (table), 379n
Runs scored, 277, 400n, 409n; lead-off man and, 382n; league-leading teams/finish, 277 (table); park factor and, 295; pitching and, 281; Pythagorean Record as function of, 283 (fig.); runs allowed and, 279, 280, 282 (fig.), 283, 287, 409–410n; wins and, 282, 283
Russell, Jeff, 84
Ruth, Babe, xvii, xxv, 280, 327; ballpark factors for, xx (table), 375n; Baseball Time Machine and, xxix; and Bonds compared, x, xvii–xviii, xx, xxx, xxxiv, xxxviii–xxix; BRAR of, xxxvii–xxxviii (table); career runs above replacement of, xli (fig.); career stats of, xix, xviii (table); EqA of, xxix–xxx (table), xxx; FRAR of, xxix, xxix–xl (table), xl; Mendoza and, 172–173, 387n; 1984 estimate for, xxxi (table); normalized AVG/OBP/SLG for, xxi, xxi–xxii (table); pitching by, xl–xli; PRAR of, xli, xli (table); Timeline Adjustment and, xxxi, xxxiv; Time Machine and, xxix–xxx (table), xxx–xxxi; WARP and, 188
Ryan, Nolan, 49, 51, 88, 235, 273
Ryan, Terry, 312
Saberhagen, Bret, 273
Sabermetricians, x, xvii, xxiv, xxxiv, 15, 265, 327–328, 377n
Sacrifices, 128, 152, 380n; attempts at, 133, 134; batter thresholds for, 134 (table); defense and, 132; outcomes of, 133, 133 (table); pitchers and, 134–135, 387n; problems with, 127, 135, 137–138, 153; run/inning differentials and, 131; scoring and, 129, 132–133; stolen bases and, 135; successful, 130, 132, 133, 134; WinEx and, 131–132, 131 (fig.), 132 (fig.), 135, 142
Safeco Field, 212; honeymoon variable of, 389n; rating for, 389n
Salaries, 188–189, 196, 213, 395n; growth in, 208, 210, 212; market correction in, 171; minor league, 406n; output and, 175; reducing, 228–230, 233; ticket prices and, 207, 209, 209 (fig.), 214; wins and, 396n
Salary cap, 227, 228, 230, 232, 233, 234
Salmon, Tim, 319
Sample size, 163, 343, 346, 350, 378n; random chance and, 344; scouting and, 370
Sanchez, Alex, 335
Sanderson, Allen, 213, 217, 220
San Francisco Giants: AVG of, 345; offense of, 278; payroll of, 274; pitching of, 278; stadium for, 224
Santana, Johan, xxix, 107, 273, 312
Santiago, Benito, 285
SBC Park, x, xx; funding for, 224; rating for, 388–389n
Schilling, Curt, 147, 318–319, 321
Schuerholz, John, 171, 310, 314
Schumacher, Hal, 288
Schwarz, Alan, 326, 327, 371, 373, 404n
Scioscia, Mike, 319
Scoring, 17, 125, 282; chances of, 61, 128, 129, 129 (table), 134, 289; sacrifices and, 129, 132–133; stolen bases and, 124
Scouting, 171, 200, 233, 236, 245, 369–370; pitching and, 373; sample size and, 370; statistics and, 370, 373, 374
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 175
Seitz, Peter, 208
Selig, Bud, 199, 220, 230, 308
Sexson, Richie, 200
Sheehan, Joe, 100
Sheffield, Gary, 306, 307, 323
Shortstops: defensive improvements at, 99 (table); defensive responsibilities of, 159; shifting to/from, 101, 385n
Showalter, Buck, 139, 140, 154
Siegfried, John, 213
Sierra, Ruben, 140
Silver, Nate, 222, 312, 403n; ORVY and, 135, 386n
Similarity Scores, 172, 264, 265, 266, 401n
Sinins, Lee, 159
Situations, 59–60, 65; clutch, 18 (table), 19, 24, 25, 34, 382n; hidden-clutch, 16, 27, 116; key elements of, 17; performances and, 348; stolen bases and, 126; WinEx and, 20–21, 136
Slugging average (SLG), xiv, xix, 8, 37, 57, 146, 150, 158, 202, 255, 278, 350; adjusted, xxi, 302; AVG and, 386n; described, xviii, 5; handedness and, 348; OBP and, 38; replacement-level, 164; steroids and, 335, 335 (table), 341
Slusarski, Joe, 286
Smallball, 115, 319, 353–354, 362
Smith, Dave, 59
Smith, Joe, 36
Smith, Lee, 59
Smulyan, Jeff, 211
SNLVAR. See Support Neutral, Lineup-Adjusted, Value Added Above Replacement
SNVA. See Support-Neutral Value Added
Society of American Baseball Research (SABR), x, xvii
Sosa, Jorge, 311
Speed only players, 267, 268; aging patterns of, 267 (fig.)
Speed + power players, 267, 268; aging patterns of, 267 (fig.)
Speed score, 266, 267, 362, 399n
Spencer, Shane, 4–5
Spiezio, Scott, 212
Stadiums: attendance and, 211; configuration of, 6, 56, 248; DIPS and, 93; economic impact of, 215–220, 216 (table), 222–223, 226; high-altitude, 296; honeymoon effect and, 225, 225 (table); influence of, 153, 293–294; new, 178, 211–212, 214, 215, 216–217, 234; quality of, 176, 177–178, 179; rating, 388–389n, 390n, 391n; retro, 211, 225; winning baseball and, 221, 221 (table), 222
Stairs, Matt, 368
Stalling, George, 348
Stanley, Bob, 84
Stanley, Mike, 285
Starting pitchers, 84; catchers and, 108–109; replacement levels for, 169, 169 (table); replacement-level RA vs. league-average starting RA, 168 (fig.); replacement value of, 166–167
Starts, distribution of, 81, 82 (table)
Statistics, xiv, 163, 373–374; analyzing, 369; batting, 22, 34, 56, 57, 163; counting, xxxvii, 4; defensive, 96, 103; home/road, 295; major-league, 243; minorleague, 243, 250, 255; neutrality of, 379n; offensive, 259, 400n; pitching, 56–57, 57 (table); playing time and, 158; rate, xxxvii, 152, 296, 377n, 387n, 401n; raw, 158–159; scouting and, 369–370, 374; steroids and, 328; support-neutral, 51–52, 94
Steinbrenner, George, 140, 155, 220, 310, 355; luxury tax and, 228–229; revenue sharing and, 230
Stengel, Casey, 153, 310, 312, 351
Stennett, Rennie, 290
Steroids, ix, 207, 247; “contract year” phenomenon and, 406n; controversy over, 327–328; hitters and, 334; home runs and, 330; marginal players and, 341, 405n; performance and, xlii, 328, 333, 335, 340, 341, 342; pitchers and, 334, 338; suspensions for, 328, 334, 335, 340, 341, 404n, 405n; tipping points and, 342, 406n; using, 328, 329, 333, 338–341
Stewart, Shannon, 285
Stolen bases, xlii, 112, 128, 146, 266, 268, 380n; attempts at, 116, 137, 400n; baserunning and, 116, 117, 119; break-even points with, 114, 122, 122 (fig.), 123–124, 123 (fig.), 124 (fig.); controlling, 105; evaluating, 115, 121–126; following batters and, 116; home runs and, 113; in later innings, 126; net, 120; overuse of, 153; sacrifices and, 135; scoring opportunities and, 115, 124; success rate for, 113–114, 122, 400n; value of, 114–115, 123 (fig.), 124, 124 (fig.), 125 (fig.); WinEx and, 121, 124, 142
Stopper era, 73
Stottlemyre, Todd, 318
Strikeout rates, xix, 55, 56, 89, 112, 266, 271, 381, 400; ballparks and, 375n; clutch performance and, 33; pitcher, 365–366; run prevention and, 364
Strikeouts, 57, 87, 91, 92, 273, 365; AVG and, 260, 261, 410n; groundouts and, 17, 378n; hit prevention and, 363; rest and, 82, 83; run expectation and, 378n; studies on, 9
Success-cycle theory, 309, 310, 311, 312
Sundberg, Jim, 106
Superstation dummy, 185, 186, 393n, 394n
Support-Neutral, Lineup-Adjusted, Value Added above Replacement (SNLVAR), 52
Support-Neutral Loss (SNL), 52
Support-Neutral Value Added (SNVA), 52, 57, 169
Support-Neutral Win (SNW), 51–52
Suspended players, before/after comparison of, 335, 336–337 (table), 339 (table)
Sutter, Bruce, 59
Suzuki, Ichiro, 45, 117, 266; defending against, 120; MLVr and, 7
Sweetspots, xxiii, 192, 193, 195, 196, 275
Swift, Billy, 84
Swings, misses/fouled off, 297 (table)
Talent, 246, 387n; evaluating, xxiv, 370
Tampa Bay Devil Rays, 127, 131, 137; free-agent market and, 203, 233, 394n; market size for, 234; prospects and, 147; statistical principles and, 369; sufferings of, 312
Tarasco, Tony, 314
Tartabull, Danny, 254
Tate, David, 7
Tatis, Fernando, 257
Taveras, Frank, 290
Taylor, Billy, 311
Taylor, Brien, 239–240
TBS, Atlanta Braves and, 186
Team Marketing Report, 176, 388n
Team quality, 176, 177, 179; luxury suites/club seats and, 182, 183; PSP and, 361, 361 (fig.); summary measures of, 180–181, 362
Team success: bifurcated model of, 180–181; market size and, 397n
Technology, xxiii–xxiv, xxx–xxxi
Teixeira, Mark, 43
Tejada, Miguel, 45, 98, 159, 311, 367, 368
Texas Rangers, 140; RA of, 293; Rodriguez and, 174, 229, 397n
Third basemen, primary Yankee, 103 (table)
Thompson, Robby, 344
Thorn, John, x, 2, 43, 61, 114, 128; on pitching, 274; Run Expectation Table and, 113
Three Rivers Stadium, rating for, 388n, 389n
Ticket prices: increase in, 179, 208, 209, 211–212, 213, 214, 228, 230, 398n; payroll and, 211, 230; salaries and, 207, 208, 209, 209 (fig.), 214; TV contract values and, 210
Ticket revenue, 175, 176–181, 187, 313; analysis of, 185; competitiveness and, 180; concessions and, 181, 189; merchandise revenue and, 185, 190; performance and, 177; playoff appearances and, 180, 181; postseason, 189–190; regular-season, 180, 189; in wealthiest/poorest market, 180; winning and, 180, 181
Tiger, Tango, 92
Tiger Stadium: effects of, 375n; rating for, 389n
Timeline Adjustment, xxxi–xxxii, xxxvii, 377n; league difficulty factors with, xxxii (fig.)
Tired arm syndrome, 49
Toca, Jorge, 335
Tommy John surgery, xxiv, 376n
Torborg, Jeff, 320
Toronto Blue Jays: ERA of, 284–285; free-agent market and, 285; OPS of, 285; stadium for, 211; statistical principles and, 369; turnaround for, 284
Torre, Joe, 149, 152, 315; influence of, 154–155; managerial posts for, 139, 140–141, 154–155; Showalter and, 139, 140
Trades, 147–148, 227, 290, 308, 311
Trammel, Alan, 90
Tribune Corp, Chicago Cubs and, 392n
Tropicana Field, 225
Turner, Ted, 311
Two-Tiered Model, 189–194, 190 (table), 196
Unearned runs, problems with, 89–90
Unintentional walks (UBB), 39, 256, 401n
U.S. Cellular Field, 322; rating for, 389n
Upton, B. J., 147
Urbina, Ugueth, 320
Usage, 72; numbers, actual/estimated compared, 72 (table) patterns, optimal, 73
Value, 195, 238, 387n, 388n; draft position, 237; estimating, 170, 194, 229; losing, 264, 271; park-neutral, 303; predictive, 259
Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), 9–10, 23, 169–171, 201, 321–322, 410n; described, xiv, 7, 278; greatest difference between hitting/pitching, 279 (table); production/playing time and, 78; PSP and, 362; RBI and, 10, 11
Van Poppel, Todd, 235–236, 240–241
Varitek, Jason, 396n
Vaughn, Greg, 203, 206, 233, 312
Veeck, Bill, 312
Veterans Stadium, rating for, 388n, 389n
Vidro, Jose, 9
Vina, Fernando, 312
Vizcaino, Jose, xxxvi–xxxvii
VORP. See Value Over Replacement Player
Waechter, Doug, 54
Wagner, Honus, xxix, xxxi, 243–244
Walker, Dixie, xxxviii
Walker, Larry, 148, 304; adjusted statistics for, 301 (table); MVP for, 302; offensive production of, 303; park effects and, 301–302
Walk rate, 55, 56, 89, 258, 266, 271, 381n, 401n, 402n; ballparks and, 375n; clutch performance and, 33; increase in, 262, 270; isolated power and, 261–262
Walks, 57, 91, 92, 255, 266; home runs and, 378n; intentional, 39, 45, 46 (table), 128, 135, 142, 153, 386n; postseason success and, 363; three/four days’ rest and, 83; unintentional, 39, 256, 401n
Walk year, 199, 200; average games played/pitched in, 202 (table); drop from, 203–204; performance during, 201, 202 (table)
Wallach, Tim, 344
Ward, John Montgomery, 111
WARP. See Wins Above Replacement Player
Weaver, Earl, 141, 322, 347–348, 407n: on managers, 144; on pitching, 273
Wedge, Eric, 127, 128, 137, 138
Weeden, Brandon, 283
Weeks, Rickie, 334
Weiss, George, 274
Weiss, Walt, 304
Wells, David, 316
Wells, Kip, 308
Wells, Vernon, 118
WGN, Chicago Cubs and, 186, 392n
Whitaker, Lou, 89
White, Devon, 306
White, Rick, 72
Wilhelm, Hoyt, 59
Will, George F., xix
Williams, Bernie, 52, 100, 102, 140, 230, 254, 316, 317
Williams, Ted, xvii, xxxiv; EqA of, xxix, xxvii; slash stats, xiv
Williamson, Antone, 236
Willis, Dontrelle, 134–135, 273, 320
Wilson, Jack, 280
Win Expectancy (WinEx), 19, 24, 34, 60–65, 169, 380n, 386–387n; baserunning and, 121–126, 379n; career totals, best/worst, 23 (table); closer, 410n; clutch situations and, 382n; defense and, 379n; determining, 20, 25, 130–131; framework for, 154; game example of, 20 (table); home team change in/by inning/run differential, 137 (fig.); increasing, 135, 379n; macroeconomics of, 133; managerial performance and, 141–142; MVPs, 20, 21 (table); ORVY and, 135; run differential and, 124; run expectation and, 121–122, 131; sacrifices and, 131–132, 131 (fig.), 132 (fig.), 135; scoring-expectation tables and, 131; seasons, best/worst, 22 (table); situations and, 20–21, 136; stolen bases and, 121–126; visiting team change in/by inning/run differential, 136 (fig.)
Winfield, Dave, 155
Winner’s Curse, 194–196, 195 (fig.)
Winning, 369; chances of, 16, 69, 131, 151, 354, 355, 355 (table); hitting and, 279, 304; new stadiums and, 221, 221 (table), 222; pitching and, 272, 275 (table), 279, 304; runs allowed and, 276
Winning percentage, 50, 57, 144; pitching payroll and, 274; postseason and, 410n; PSP and, 357; regular-season, 355; rest and, 82; runs scored/runs allowed and, 279
Wins: adding/10 offensive runs, 276 (fig.); cost of, 189, 193–194, 396n; defense and, 289; hitting and, 286; local revenue and, 189, 190; marginal economic value of, 193, 193 (fig.); market size and, 397n; pitching and, 286; postseason and, 193; previous season, 391n; ranking of, 93 (table); runs and, 304, 384n; runs scored/runs allowed and, 144–145, 282, 283; ticket revenue and, 180, 181; value of, 181, 184, 188, 190, 191, 192, 196
Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), 188, 201, 204, 206, 237, 238, 239 (table), 391n, 395n
Witt, Bobby, 346
Wohlers, Mark, 314
Womack, Tony, 3, 37, 38, 100, 230, 395n
Wood, Kerry, 147
Woolner, Keith, 262, 383–384n, 400n; on McCracken, 91–92; model by, 19, 350; revenue sharing and, 234–235; VORP and, 7; WinEx and, 122, 130, 141
Workload, 78; injury rates and, 80, 80 (fig.)
World Series: composite rankings and, 366–367; contending teams and, 309; runs scored and, 281; winning, 308, 355 (table)
WXRL. See Expected wins added over a replacement-level pitcher’s performance
Yan, Esteban, 314
Yankee Stadium, xx, 177; run scoring at, 409n
Yastrzemski, Carl, xix, xxvi, 97
YES Network, 392n
Young, Dmitri, 240
Young player’s skills, 255, 268
Yount, Robin, 118
Zimbalist, Andrew, 217, 234, 394n, 404n
Zipp, John, 219