Contents

Acknowledgments

Introduction

Part One

Why We Go Astray

 1 Thinking About Thinking

 2 Insights into Problem Solving

Part Two

The Fourteen Tools

 3 Problem Restatement

 4 Pros-Cons-and-Fixes

 5 Divergent/Convergent Thinking

 6 Sorting, Chronologies, and Time Lines

 7 Causal Flow Diagramming

 8 The Matrix

 9 The Scenario Tree

10 Weighted Ranking

11 Hypothesis Testing

12 Devil’s Advocacy

13 The Probability Tree

14 The Utility Tree

15 The Utility Matrix

16 Advanced Utility Analysis

Part Three

Where Do We Go from Here?

17 Your Next Steps

Solutions to Exercises

For Further Reading

Notes